The events of the last few days, in which Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of a notorious private army called Wagner, mounted a brief rebellion against Russia’s military leadership, are not enough to answer that question.
But they do suggest that Mr. Putin’s hold over the elite coalition that keeps him in power is under stress, with unpredictable consequences.
A crucial coalitionEven though authoritarian leaders may appear to rule by fiat, they all rely on coalitions of powerful elites to stay in power, analysts say.
The specifics vary by country and situation: Some count on the military, others on a single ruling party, the religious authorities, or wealthy business leaders.
Even when a 2011 popular uprising turned into a bloody, protracted civil war, Mr. Assad’s supporters within the military kept him in power: The benefits of loyalty, to them, far outweighed the costs.
Persons:
Vladimir V, Yevgeny V, Wagner, Putin’s, Bashar al, Assad’s
Locations:
Ukraine, Moscow, Syria