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Jeremy Grantham issued grim warnings about the US stock market and economy this week. Grantham touched on meme stocks, banking risks, real estate, commodities, and Elon Musk's Tesla. GMO's cofounder and long-term investment strategist also reflected on his inadvertent investment in a meme stock, advised against buying real estate or commodities, and touted Elon Musk's Tesla and other companies fighting climate change. "I would be very careful with real estate. So I wouldn't touch real estate."
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Elon Musk's Tesla, There's, it's, dopey VWs, they've Organizations: Service, Livewire Markets, General Motors, Panasonic, dopey, Grantham Locations: Wall, Silicon, Sydney, craziness, Grantham
Dimon quoted Warren Buffett twice to flag the risks to banks and trumpet prudence in business. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The billionaire banker and JPMorgan CEO also championed prudent risk management, and warned that more lenders could run into problems like Silicon Valley Bank did this spring. If you have that with a recession, yes, you're going to see a little bit more stress and strain in the system." (Dimon was referring to other banks getting caught out by rising interest rates like Silicon Valley Bank.)
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Warren Buffett, headwinds, It's, we've, There's, Warren, — he's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bank, Barclays, AlphaSense, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Silicon Valley
The S&P 500 is priced for perfection and could plunge 25% if problems crop up, Mike Wilson says. Morgan Stanley's stock chief says the outlook for company earnings and the economy is pretty grim. The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have rallied 17% and 33% respectively this year. He suggested a shock to the system of that kind could send the S&P 500 plummeting from nearly 4,500 points today to the low 3,000s — a drop of more than 25%. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn short, Wilson sees very limited upside and material downside to investing in the S&P 500 today.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Wilson, Rosenberg, Morgan, China's, Sharp, aren't Organizations: Big Tech, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Wall, Silicon, Bank of Japan
The US economy is in a "rolling recession" and a full-blown downturn looms, Liz Ann Sonders says. Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist doesn't expect a bunch of interest—rate cuts in 2024. "The leading indicators have absolutely imploded," Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said during a recent episode of "The Meb Faber Show." "We've never seen this kind of deterioration in leading indicators" outside of an ongoing recession, she added. Sonders was referring to The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which fell for a 16th straight month in July.
Persons: Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab's, doesn't, Charles Schwab, Faber, We've, Sonders, that's, it's Organizations: Service, shouldn't, Conference, Federal Reserve, Avatar Associates Locations: Wall, Silicon
Bill Ackman's first stock was Wells Fargo, and Warren Buffett was a key factor in his choice. Ackman determined Wells Fargo, which counted Buffett as a big shareholder, was oversold at the time. "My first actual investment was I bought Wells Fargo stock," Ackman recalled. "I had already started following Warren Buffett, and he was a big shareholder at a much higher price." Moreover, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had taken a position in Wells Fargo the previous year.
Persons: Bill Ackman's, Wells Fargo, Warren Buffett, Ackman, Buffett, Pershing, Julia La Roche, they'd, Justin Sullivan, Wells, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett imprimatur Organizations: Wells, Service, Harvard Business School, Harvard, Bank Locations: Wells, Wall, Silicon, Wells Fargo
Warren Buffett wrote to Leon Cooperman about stock buybacks, taxing the rich, and Henry Singleton. When Cooperman was mulling a presidential run, Buffett joked he could "deliver Nebraska" for him. Cooperman shared a trio of messages he received from Buffett in his newly published memoir. Buffett wrote him a note after reading the letter, which Cooperman still keeps framed in his office:Dear Lee,I always enjoy both the quality of your writing and the quality of your thinking. Buffett wrote to Cooperman after his speech to express his agreement:AdvertisementAdvertisementHenry was a manager that all investors, CEOs, would be CEOs, and MBA students should study.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Leon Cooperman, Henry Singleton, Cooperman, Buffett, Goldman Sachs, trumpeted, Dear Lee, Warren, Singleton, Henry, Lee, you've Organizations: Service, Teledyne, Cooperman, Wall, Finance, Philanthropy, Omega Advisors, Business, Loews, Berkshire Locations: Nebraska, Wall, Silicon, Bronx, Iraq, Afghanistan
Bill Ackman predicts more pain for regional banks and commercial real estate as interest rates bite. Ackman warns AI will be hugely disruptive, and predicts Elon Musk's X will ultimately succeed. "The commercial real estate picture has not gotten better. You're going to start seeing real defaults, particularly with office assets. The pressure on the regional banking system — you're going to start to see more of it come now on the commercial real estate side."
Persons: Bill Ackman, Elon Musk's, Ackman, Julia La Roche, Elon, We've, it's, Elon Musk Organizations: Pershing Square, Service, Twitter Locations: Wall, Silicon, Elon Musk's
The US economy is likely to "hit a wall" by next spring, Jeffrey Gundlach warned. The government may try to spend its way out of trouble, reigniting inflation, Gundlach said. They now face a "dangerous cocktail" of inflated living costs, steeper rents, larger interest payments on their credit cards, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and taxes coming due, he continued. Gundlach — whose nickname is the "bond king" — predicted the plethora of financial pressures would tank the economy. He emphasized that the government's interest payments are already exploding, and warned they could grow substantially in the coming years.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, Fox Business, DoubleLine Capital, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Charlie Munger handed $88 million to Li Lu when the value investor launched a new fund in 2004. The value investor, who Munger has dubbed the "Chinese Warren Buffett," has grown the sum to roughly $400 million since then. "We made unholy good returns for a long, long time," Munger told the Financial Times for a new profile of Li. "And Li Lu just backed up the truck, bought all he could and made a killing." You can't find a more capitalistic capitalist than Li Lu."
Persons: Charlie Munger, Li Lu, Warren Buffett's, he's, Munger, Warren Buffett, Li, JP Yim, Kweichow, Buffett, He's Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Berkshire Hathaway's, China's, Buffett, Columbia University, Capital Management, Securities, Exchange, West Bancorp, Apple, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, Munger, BYD, Berkshire, New York, California, Washington
Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on inflation, interest rates, markets, and the economy. We're now in an era that will average higher rates than we had for the last 10 years." "I suspect inflation will never be as low as it averaged for the last 10 years, that we have re-entered a period of moderately higher inflation, and therefore moderately higher interest rates." The power of interest rates rising and depressing the real estate market — very negative, slow-moving influence. When we sit here discussing the stock market, we're a little like Emperor Nero fiddling while Rome burns."
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rubenstein, We're, , Nero Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon, Grantham
Silicon Valley Bank's implosion spotlighted the federal deposit insurance limit of $250,000. The cap led NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo to open multiple bank accounts to protect his fortune. Billionaire investor Marc Lasry told the player to invest in US Treasuries and other assets instead. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. When Giannis Antetokounmpo first learned of the limit, he opened half a dozen bank accounts to protect his fortune.
Persons: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Marc Lasry, Antetokounmpo, Giannis, Lasry, Lionel Messi, LeBron James, Tom Brady, John Koudounis, Bill Ackman, Mark Cuban Organizations: NBA, Service, Bloomberg, Milwaukee Bucks, Bloomberg Wealth Summit, JPMorgan, Forbes, Deposit Insurance Corp, Signature Bank Locations: Wall, Silicon, Greece
Buffett likes toll roads that give him monopoly power and the ability to raise prices easily. AdvertisementAdvertisementYears later, one of Buffett's companies held a 24% stake in Detroit International Bridge Co., the only public company in the country that owned a toll bridge. He also highlighted toll roads among the specific assets he wanted to buy in his Buffett Partnership letters in the 1950s. "I have said in an inflationary world that a toll bridge would be a great thing to own if it was unregulated." Shared valuesBuffett appears to like toll roads because they're a simple, safe, and reliable way to make money.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Elon, Elon Musk, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Roger Lowenstein, Sandy Gottesman, Warren, Bill Brewster, Bill Cohan, Kara Swisher, Cohan, Tesla, Nathan Furr, Jeff Dyer, Musk Organizations: Buffett, Service, Elon, Berkshire, American, Detroit International, Co, Apple, Yorker, SpaceX, Harvard Business, EV Locations: Wall, Silicon, Detroit, Berkshire
Kevin O'Leary finds it surprising the US economy has avoided a recession so far. The "Shark Tank" investor expects interest and mortgage rates to rise further. The US economy has managed to escape a recession so far — but mortgage rates are headed higher in the months ahead, he said. "We have this weird situation in America, we're at full employment," the "Shark Tank" investor told Fox News. Wonderful" — said interest rates were on track to hit 6% at least, pushing mortgage rates from about 7% today to above 8%.
Persons: Kevin O'Leary, Jerome Powell, Jim Chanos, O'Leary, Organizations: Service, we're, Fox News, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, Texas, Florida
"On August 30, 2030 — my 100th birthday — I plan to announce that Geico has taken over the top spot, " Buffett said in his 2015 shareholder letter. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn his 1999 shareholder letter, Buffett credited Huggins' "fanatical insistence on both product quality and friendly service" for See's generating $857 million in pre-tax income since Berkshire took over. During the party, Dinsdale revealed he had attended a directors' meeting at Kansas Bankers Surety, an insurance firm that Buffett had long admired. "I'm now scheming to get invited to Jane's next party," Buffett joked. He illustrated the point in his 1990 shareholder letter, using a story about his granddaughter Emily's fourth birthday party a few months earlier.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Geico, he's, Huggins, Law Buffett, Charlie Munger, Chuck Huggins, See's, Charlie, Mrs B, Rose Blumkin, Mrs, Jane Rogers, Roy Dinsdale, Dinsdale, I'm, Jane's, Emily's, Emily, Gee, B's Organizations: Berkshire, Apple, Service, Progressive, Allstate, AlphaSense, Nebraska Furniture Mart, Kansas Bankers Locations: Wall, Silicon, Nebraska
Warren Buffett celebrated his 93nd birthday on Wednesday, August 30. Buffett aims to compound his wealth and gather great friends, like a snowball rolling down a hill. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisement"The snowball he had created so carefully was enormous by now," Schroeder writes. Read more: Vinod Khosla and Warren Buffett are at opposite ends of the investing spectrum.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Buffett, dreads, Berkshire Hathaway, there's, he's, Alice Schroeder, Schroeder, , He's, Vinod Khosla Organizations: Service, Berkshire, Apple, VC Locations: Wall, Silicon, Berkshire
Stocks are set to slump and many Americans are "prisoners in their own homes," David Rosenberg says. Rising rates have driven up mortgage costs, deterring many sellers, the economist says. The Rosenberg Research president laid out several reasons why he believes asset prices have soared to unsustainable highs. The central bank might keep forging ahead with further hikes to interest rates as a result, turning the screw on the stock market and the economy, he said. He underlined the Fed's decision to cut interest rates to almost zero in 2020 and 2021, which allowed homeowners to lock in long-term mortgages at rates of 2% to 3%.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Cash, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg, North, Fed, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American
A fast-food worker obtained $200,000 of advance credit by making bogus deposits, the SEC says. The Auntie Anne's employee piled the entire sum into Tesla, Nvidia, GameStop, AMC, and other stocks. His broker caught on and liquidated the holdings a day later, making a roughly $7,000 profit. The pretzel-shop worker piled about $85,000 into Apple, $78,000 into GameStop, $22,000 into Nvidia, $13,000 into AMC Entertainment, and $700 into Tesla. Tesla and Nvidia also have passionate fanbases who expect the pair to win big from the artificial-intelligence revolution.
Persons: Deyonte Jahtori Anthony, Auntie Anne's, Anthony, Anthony wasn't, Anthony couldn't Organizations: SEC, Nvidia, GameStop, AMC, Service, AMC Entertainment, Securities and Exchange Commission, Apple, Tesla, Cano Health, Electronic Arts, Resolute, Products, ETFMG, Security Locations: Wall, Silicon, North Carolina
Warren Buffett and Michael Burry may be expecting a market downturn and recession, Steve Hanke says. Berkshire Hathaway sold a net $8 billion of stocks and added to its cash pile in the second quarter. Burry's Scion firm placed bets against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 worth a notional $1.6 billion. Steve Hanke says the Berkshire Hathaway CEO and the investor of "The Big Short" fame are likely preparing for trouble. "It looks to me like Burry has made a good move," Hanke said about the Scion chief's latest big short.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, Steve Hanke, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's, Hanke, Buffett, Goldman Sachs, Davidson, Elon Musk's Tesla, Burry, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Scion, Nasdaq, Service, Berkshire, Johns Hopkins University, Toronto Trust, Electric, Harley, Scion Asset Management, Elon, & $ Locations: Wall, Silicon, Toronto Trust Argentina, Mars
Taylor Swift's Eras Tour had a significant impact on several public companies this summer. "Knowing how our guests can't get enough of Taylor Swift, we proactively secured an exclusive vinyl offering that Swifties bought in droves." "In July, Taylor Swift launched her Eras Tour merch shop with us experiencing unprecedented volume sales and site visitors on launch day, and we were ready for it." "Folks aren't buying as much patio furniture when they're spending hundreds or thousands of dollars to go to Taylor Swift. Rolling Stones, U2, Madonna, Prince, and this Taylor Swift performance was at a whole different level.
Persons: Taylor, Taylor Swift, Swifties, Christina Hennington, — Harvey Finkelstein, — Boyd Muir, — Leslie Hale, Raymond Martz, Jon Bortz, Wee Ee Cheong, Thomson Leighton, James Conroy, It's, Jonathan Johnson, Tom Schmitt Organizations: Service, AlphaSense, Merchandising, Universal Music, Lodging, Overseas Bank, Bot, Akamai, Forward Locations: Wall, Silicon, Chicago
Stocks look "pretty pricey" and a recession is "right around the corner," Steve Hanke told Insider. Hanke sees inflation cooling, 10-year Treasury yields falling, and house prices staying afloat. As for the housing market, Hanke noted there's a shortage of homes for sale. Steve Hanke is professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. "With lower inflation and a recession right around the corner, I anticipate that the 10-year yields will come down and the gap will close," Hanke said.
Persons: Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Portia Crowe, Ronald Reagan, Price, bode Organizations: Treasury, Service, Johns Hopkins University, Toronto Trust, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, Toronto Trust Argentina
The S&P 500 is dominated by a handful of Big Tech companies like Apple and Amazon. Investors in the index are speculating on just a few companies, Apollo's Marc Rowan says. The S&P 500 weights its constituents by market capitalization, meaning companies with trillion-dollar market caps like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have outsized influence among the roughly 500 stocks in the benchmark index. Moreover, Apollo outbid Berkshire for Tech Data in 2019, underscoring that Rowan and Buffett have similar tastes in businesses. Buffett hasn't voiced the same concerns as Rowan about the intense concentration of Big Tech in the S&P 500.
Persons: Apollo's Marc Rowan, Rowan, it's, Warren Buffett, Marc Rowan, Buffett, Buffett hasn't Organizations: Big Tech, Apple, Investors, Service, Nvidia, Australian Financial, Apollo Global, Microsoft, Apollo, Athene, Tech Data, Berkshire Locations: Wall, Silicon, Berkshire
Home prices won't drop, and could surge 15% once mortgage rates fall, Barbara Corcoran says. There's a shortage of homes for sale as people don't want to give up their cheap mortgage rates. The housing market is in good shape, and buyers will pounce once rates drop, Corcoran says. In response to a massive inflation spike last year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from almost zero to more than 5% since last spring. In June, she suggested home prices could jump as much as 20% once interest rates drop by two percentage points.
Persons: Barbara Corcoran, Corcoran, it's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Corcoran Group Locations: Wall, Silicon, Florida
Stock investors are delusional if they expect a "no landing" scenario, PNC's Amanda Agati says. The Fed can't conquer inflation without triggering a recession, the bank's chief investor says. Agati points to the inverted yield curve as a warning sign that an economic downturn is looming. "The equity market is still delusional," PNC Asset Management Group's chief investor, Amanda Agati, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. It's "totally focused on no landing — the Fed is effectively pulling off mission impossible and getting inflation under control without tipping us into recession," she continued.
Persons: Amanda Agati, It's, Agati Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, PNC, Management Group's, Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
Jeremy Grantham compared the post-pandemic boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble. The GMO cofounder doubts AI buzz can offset the impact of higher interest rates and tech woes. The buying frenzy was fueled by rock-bottom interest rates, stimulus checks, federal grants and loans, lockdown boredom, and other factors. The resulting surge in stocks was "in many ways about equal to the 2000 tech bubble," the veteran investor and GMO cofounder added. Grantham added that a recession could still hit this year, and forecasted moderately higher inflation and interest rates in the years to come versus the last decade.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rubenstein, It's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
Getty Images / Michael BucknerWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway established stakes in a trio of homebuilders last quarter: Lennar, NVR, and DR Horton. The positions were worth a combined $814 million — a small bet in the context of Berkshire's roughly $350 billion stock portfolio. Buffett's portfolio managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, were likely behind the purchases given their size. On the other hand, it exited its wagers on McKesson, Marsh & McLennan, and Vitesse Energy in the period. Buffett and his team also pared their positions in Activision Blizzard, Chevron, Celanese, General Motors, and Globe Life.
Persons: Warren Buffett Warren Buffett, Michael Buckner Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, DR, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Buffett Organizations: Getty, Capital, Occidental Petroleum, McLennan, Vitesse Energy, Activision Blizzard, Chevron, General Motors, Globe Locations: Capital One, Marsh, Celanese
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