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☆ Economy Week Ahead: U.S. Household Spending and Home Prices in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The National Association of Realtors releases data this week on home sales. TuesdayS&P Global releases its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for January. Home prices rose 5.8% in the year ended in December, down from a 7.6% annual rate the prior month, the lowest December-to-December change since 2019. The National Association of Realtors last week separately said the median sale price of previously owned homes fell year-over-year in February for the first time in over a decade. The Conference Board publishes its March consumer-confidence index, which measures Americans’ attitudes toward the economy and labor market.

☆ First came bank failures. Now comes the House hearing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Federal regulators are being called to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. What lawmakers are saying: Elected officials want a review of what happened at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month, as well as stricter regulations to prevent it from happening again. Regulators on March 12, just days after SVB collapsed, announced a guarantee of all deposits at the bank and Signature Bank. What to expect: It’s unclear what will come of the hearings on SVB and Signature Bank. Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee’s hearing on the banking crisis continues for a second day.

☆ Corporations will need to be more conservative as credit availability shrinks: The Conference Board CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCorporations will need to be more conservative as credit availability shrinks: The Conference Board CEOSteve Odland, The Conference Board president and CEO, and Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics, join 'The Exchange' to discuss what's happening on the front lines of the economy, where Knapp would be most interested in having exposure and more.

☆ Will the banking crisis cause a recession? It may depend on the 'wealth effect,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

watch nowwatch nowThat leaves consumers with less access to cash to cover the rising cost of food, housing and other expenses. As households feel increasingly squeezed, that weighs on their confidence in the overall economic picture. What it takes to feel financially secureAmericans now say they would need an average net worth of $774,000 to feel "financially comfortable," but more than $2 million to feel "wealthy," according to Charles Schwab's annual Modern Wealth Survey. The University of Michigan's closely watched index of consumer sentiment recently fell for the first time in months. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is also down, according to the latest data.

☆ US consumer sentiment deteriorates in March, inflation expectations retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SummarySummary Companies Consumer sentiment slips in MarchInflation expectations easeManufacturing production edges up 0.1% in FebruaryWASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, but households expected inflation to subside over the next year and beyond, which could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it confronts financial market instability. The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.4, down from 67 in the prior month. While the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, economists expect tighter financial conditions will undercut consumption and push the economy into recession. A separate report from the Conference Board showed its Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, dropped for an 11th straight month in February. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%.

☆ Here's why the Fed should pause rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why the Fed should pause rate hikesSMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna, Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, and Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners chairman and CEO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the February CPI data and upcoming Fed announcement.

☆ Morgan Stanley: Buy these 19 stocks to profit from an investing strategy that produces positive returns 100% of the time
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Morgan Stanley sees downside for stocks and weakness for the economy on the horizon. Morgan StanleyOther economic indicators, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator, are historically weak, according to Morgan Stanley, suggesting that a recession could be coming. Morgan Stanley zeroed in on tech stocks because they've historically underperformed before the broader market bottoms but tend to significantly outperform afterward. Below are 19 tech stocks that Morgan Stanley expects to perform well after the market bottoms. These names are separate from its list of tech stocks to buy during market weakness.

☆ China to form a national bureau to manage its troves of data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, March 7 (Reuters) - China will form a national data bureau that will be responsible for coordinating the sharing and development of the country's data resources, according to a plan submitted on Tuesday to parliament. The proposed bureau will be administrated by the state planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the plan said. This has included issuing a series of new laws that require organisations with large user bases undergo assessments and obtain approvals when handling data. Some firms are struggling with a deadline requiring them to seek approval to export user data. "Multinationals will no doubt want to understand how a centralised data regulator will interface with overseas stakeholders."

☆ Resilient stock market finds support at just the right time, preserving uptrend
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Did the "soft landing" occur six months ago, at least in market terms? The leadership profile speaks, perhaps, to an elongated economic and Fed tightening cycle and suggests where within a notably bifurcated market investors should migrate. For one thing, the stock market surely can be prone to misapprehending the next macro turn and can overshoot reality in the short term. BCA Research here shows the sobering harmony in the current market trajectory and that of the early-2000s post-tech-bubble bear market. We can note, though, that the S & P 500 back then never spent as much as a month above its 200-day moving average as it has this year.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence ebbs; house price inflation slows further
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But the correlation between confidence and consumer spending has been weak. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 102.9 this month from 106.0 in January. Consumer spending increased by the most in nearly two years in January, driven by a surge in wage gains. The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 5.8% year-on-year in December, a second report showed on Tuesday. Price growth remained strong in the South, with double-digit gains in Miami, Tampa and Atlanta.

"We've been talking about impending recession for several quarters now," said Malone, whose Virginia Beach-based company has a national footprint. So has unexpectedly strong consumer spending and, for the world outlook, the reopening of China's economy from strict COVID lockdowns. That poured cold water on the idea that the Fed would "pivot" on a dime to lower rates. "Government bond yields are up" since the last Fed policy meeting, Durham wrote. "It kind of seems the U.S. economy might be more resilient than markets thought six or eight weeks ago."

☆ NABE economists still expect a recession this year. The question is when
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months. When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter. Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors. NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

☆ Here's why it makes sense that stocks are rallying as rates rise and a recession approaches, and what to own because they could keep going, according to research firm Leuthold Group.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Leuthold Group CIO Doug Ramsey says the "irrational" stock market rally could continue. Ramsey says that when economic indicators hit a low point, it's generally very good for stocks. It might not make a lot of sense that stocks have jumped in 2023 even as recession concerns have risen and interest rates have climbed to 15-year highs, notes Doug Ramsey, investment chief at Leuthold Group. Ramsey concedes that the moves are "irrational," but that doesn't mean there is no reason to be optimistic about stocks. He notes that a closely watched measurement of economic activity, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, is in a downturn.

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ Despite sticky inflation, strong labor market is making equities rally, says The Conference Board's Peterson
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDespite sticky inflation, strong labor market is making equities rally, says The Conference Board's PetersonDana Peterson, The Conference Board chief economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the CPI report and the Fed. With CNBC's Steve Liesman.

☆ Who is right? Bulls and bears each have reliable indicators backing them in this confusing market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Those heralding a new bull market underway in stocks have some historically undefeated statistical signals propelling their call. Sure, the S & P 500 's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day, a positive though not flawless input. After each of the five prior times, the S & P was up three, six, 12 and 24 months later. Here he shows the difference in S & P 500 performance after the S & P 500 pushes above its 200-day average based on whether the Fed is easing policy or not. Valuations and higher bond yields keep Citi from believing there is much upside to the S & P 500 from here, but this could mean fundamental support is no longer eroding quickly.

☆ Two economy watchers discuss whether the recent tech layoffs are a signal to other sectors
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo economy watchers discuss whether the recent tech layoffs are a signal to other sectorsFast Company CEO Stephanie Mehta and The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson discuss whether recent tech layoffs are a signal to the broader economy.

☆ Roger Ferguson: CEOs are less pessimistic but not optimistic about economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRoger Ferguson: CEOs are less pessimistic but not optimistic about economyRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the results from a CEO sentiment survey, where cost pressures are loosening and more.

☆ What the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate hike means for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate hike means for investorsRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss his take on the message from the Federal Reserve, what investors may have braced for but didn't hear from Fed chair Powell and more.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence ebbs in January; inflation expectations rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in January as households continued to worry about the economy's prospects over the next six months, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slipped to 107.1 this month from 109.0 in December. The survey places more emphasis on the labor market, which remains tight. The present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased to 150.9 from 147.4 last month. But the expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped to 77.8 from 83.4 in December.

☆ Roger Ferguson: Fed more likely to move at 25 bps for the next 2-3 meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRoger Ferguson: Fed more likely to move at 25 bps for the next 2-3 meetingsRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss his thoughts towards the economy, what the terminal federal funds rate may be, and more.

☆ CEOs around the world are bracing for a recession — but recent economic numbers leave some room for optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Rebecca Knight | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Surveys indicate CEOs predict a recession and economic uncertainty in 2023. Insider's Matt Turner said he'd observed a "slight change in tone" from leaders at Davos this week. In a survey by PwC of some 4,400 CEOs in about 100 countries in October and November, nearly three-quarters said they believed global economic growth would slow over the next 12 months. The consultancy characterized the stark prediction as the most pessimistic CEOs have been about economic forecasts since it began asking this question a dozen years ago. "Many still expect a global recession that's more keenly felt in Europe.

☆ Disney and Starbucks are forcing employees back to the office, but your company is unlikely to be next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Disney and Starbucks are requiring employees to return to the office more often. Even in a recession, many companies would likely stick with their remote working arrangements. Last week, Disney announced that beginning March 1st, hybrid workers will be required to return to the office four days per week, a shift from the company's previous three-days-a-week policy. First, Bloom said remote work "keeps employees happy" and could help companies retain and attract talent as a result. Third, Bloom said his research has found that a hybrid work environment increases productivity.

☆ Americans are less confident in their economic futures than ever before — and the rest of the world is right there with them
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Americans are less confident in their economic futures than ever before, according to a survey. 24 of 28 countries surveyed reported record-low confidence levels about their economic futures. Insider was not able to verify how many times the US, or any other country, was surveyed about their future economic confidence in prior reports. But much of the rest of the world is feeling quite gloomy about their future finances as well — 24 of the 28 countries surveyed posted record lows in economic optimism. The United Kingdom, Germany, and France, for instance, reported only 23%, 15%, and 12% confidence levels respectively.

☆ CEOs Say They Expect a U.S. Recession, but Most Think It Will Be Short
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Theo Francis | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Top executives in much of the world are preparing for an economic downturn that is shorter and milder than usual, so they are focused on weathering the slowdown without widespread job cuts, a new survey found. Significant majorities of corporate leaders outside China and Japan expect growth to return by late 2023 or the first half of 2024, according to an annual survey of more than 1,100 executives by the Conference Board, a not-for-profit business-research organization.

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