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A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans' inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly three years. Economists say consumers appear to be responding to steadily slower inflation, higher incomes, lower gas prices and a rising stock market. What's more, paychecks have outpaced inflation over the past year, thereby easing Americans' adjustment to a higher cost of living. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesEven with the steady slowdown in inflation, prices are still nearly 17% higher than they were three years ago, a source of discontent for many Americans. It would be too painful.”Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and also a former Fed economist, acknowledged that "people are angry” about higher prices.
Persons: Joe Biden's, What's, , Grace Zwemmer, Marshall, , Dana Smith, Smith, Ryan Cummings, ” Cummings, Biden, Robert Shiller, David Andolfatto, “ Let’s, Claudia Sahm, Josh Boak Organizations: WASHINGTON, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Oxford Economics, Marshall, Trump, Democratic, Fed, University of Miami, Sahm Consulting Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Atlanta, Matthews , North Carolina, Charlotte, Washington
LegalShield's Consumer Stress Legal Index showed consumer financial stress is continuing to rise. LegalShield on Tuesday said its Consumer Stress Legal Index rose to 66.7 in December, up by 0.4 points from the prior month, showing that US consumers' financial stress is at its highest level since November 2020. AdvertisementUS consumer financial stress has soared to its highest in three years. "The rise in consumer stress in contrast to increased spending may point to an even sharper rise in household debt in the coming months." The increase in consumers' financial stress comes even as GDP growth has stayed strong, the labor market remains robust, and holiday retail spending was high.
Persons: , Matt Layton Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — Inflation in New Zealand has slowed to its lowest rate in two and a half years, the country's official statistics agency announced on Wednesday. The agency said falling food and transport prices were the main drivers of the slowdown in the inflation rate which had peaked at 7.3 per cent in 2022. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesNew Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis said a key goal of the government was to lower inflation. “Our immediate focus is getting inflation back into the target range under three per cent,” she said. The result means annual inflation rate is now at its lowest since June 2021, while quarterly inflation was tracked at 0.5 per cent, the smallest rise since December 2020.
Persons: Nicola Willis Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank, New Zealand Finance Locations: WELLINGTON, New Zealand
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company operates a large plant in China, has said Chinese automakers are the greatest competitors for his Texas-based company. "They were 26% [market share] a few years ago, up to more than 50% in 2022 and headed towards two-thirds by the end of the decade." Chinese companies have begun expanding into Mexico, Europe and elsewhere, Wakefield said. The EU believes Chinese EVs are undercutting the prices of local models by about 20% in the European market. The influx of Chinese EVs has spurred the European Union to launch into government support for the industry.
Persons: , Carlos Tavares, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, BYD, Massimo Pinca, Reuters BYD, Kristin Dziczek, Mathew Vachaparampil, Bernstein, Eunice Lee, Mark Wakefield, Evelyn Cheng, hasn't, Wakefield, That's Organizations: GM, Shanghai International Automobile Industry, National Exhibition, Convention Center, Visual China, Getty, DETROIT, American, of, SAIC, Dongfeng, General Motors, U.S . Bureau, Analysis, America —, Chrysler, America's GM, Ford Motor, automakers, The New York Times, Economist, Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's, Caresoft, Overseas, Chicago, CNBC, European Union, EU, Union, Volvo, Karma, Ford, U.S, Buick, Lincoln Nautilus Locations: Shanghai, U.S, of China, Asia, Europe, China, Japan, Nio, Mexico, Korea, Germany, Beijing, Texas, Turin, Italy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Detroit, AlixPartners, Russia, America
Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.
Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S
Read previewThe push by US businesses to make more stuff in America has an ongoing challenge: It's hard to find workers. Ulbrich says this stands in sharp contrast to Mexico, whose growing manufacturing base could entice companies to make supply chain investments there, rather than in the US. Even as the pandemic-era labor shortage has eased, the demand for construction and factory workers has continued to exceed supply. Mexico's median age is roughly 30, he added — compared to nearly 40 in China — which has contributed to a strong labor supply. Compared to Mexico, manufacturing in the US would likely offer businesses reduced supply chain disruptions and lower transportation costs.
Persons: , Christian Ulbrich, Ulbrich, Matt Turner, Biden, Houthi, Tesla, Susan Golicic, Andres Abadia, Abadia, Luis Torres, Colorado State's Golicic, Golicic Organizations: Service, Business, Economic, General Motors, Intel, Companies, Ford, Reuters, Colorado State University, US, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: America, Mexico, Ukraine, Taiwan, Canada, China, Asia, shoring, San Antonio, Tennessee, Alabama, Colorado
“Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations,” Hsu added. “Like December, there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography,” Hsu said. There may, however, be some relief in 2024 as mortgage rates fall in line with reduced interest rates from the Federal Reserve. “Mortgage rates will continue to remain a wild card for home shoppers,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months."
Persons: Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, , Danielle Hale, Lawrence Yun Organizations: University of Michigan, Republicans, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, , Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s Locations: , Federal Reserve Bank of New York
What broke the American Dream for Millennials
  + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
For their nine-month-old son, Miles, Rachael and Garrett agree: They’re not going to push him to pursue the same path. “This is the American Dream,” Rachael says. The nest egg mythA common refrain Millennials heard from their Boomer parents is that buying is always better than renting. Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesCentral to the pitch of the American Dream is a house. “I don’t think anyone could have foreseen house prices going up 20% or 30% in a three-year period,” Garrett says.
Persons: Pennsylvania CNN — Rachael Gambino, Garrett Mazzeo, , Miles, Rachael, Garrett, They’re, ’ ”, ” Rachael, Kristen Gambino, Rachael Gambino, Deborah Brunswick, John General, America it’s, Brendan Duke, Baby, Millennials, gumming, Obama, , Louis, Boomer, Luke Sharrett, they’d, ” Garrett, they’re, homeownership, We’re, “ we’re, That’s, Duke, ” Duke, , Camerota, Matthew Friedman Organizations: Pennsylvania CNN, , CNN, Center for American Progress, of Education, America, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Workers, Center, American Progress ’ Locations: Lansdale, Pennsylvania, America, United States, Attom, financials
The latest household spending survey shows Americans are feeling the impact of cooling inflation. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . That also tracks with rising and falling mortgage rates; in early 2021, younger Americans were especially eager to snatch up mortgages as rates remained near historic lows. And as boomers downsize, and their massive housing stock becomes available, it looks like Gen Z might be the ones in line to buy them up — not millennials.
Persons: , they're, it's, they'd, they'll, Gen Zers, Gen Xers, downsize Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The hefty Davos promotions come after India surpassed China last year as the world's biggest country by population. Now India is touting its growing strength as a nation of innovation and as a global business hub in front of some of the world's richest and most powerful people. "As China's economy slows down, India's relatively rapid growth stands out as a clear opportunity for investors in Davos looking for bright spots." "We had an all-time revenue record in India," Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the company's latest earnings call in November, in response to an analyst's question about the company's momentum there. Hidary said Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani's smartphone company Jio will serve about 600 million people in India through a $12 device.
Persons: There's, Ravi Agrawal, Agrawal, Narendra Modi, that's, Tim Cook, Apple Tim Cook, Punit Paranjpe, Jack Hidary, Hidary, Mukesh, Ambani Organizations: India Engagement, Wipro, Infosys, Tata, Foreign Policy, CNN, CNBC, World Bank, International Trade Administration, Visual, Bank of India, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Apple, AFP, Getty, India, AMD, Nvidia, Micron, WEF Locations: DAVOS, Switzerland, Davos, India, China, CNN India, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, U.S, Mumbai, Bangalore, Gujarat
The Sydney Opera House Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Gallo Images | Brand X Pictures | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open Thursday after stocks fell in the previous session, with mainland Chinese shares touching a near-five-year low. Investors will be watching Australia's unemployment numbers on Thursday for clues on the Reserve Bank of Australia's moves in its February meeting. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index were flat, standing at 15,274 compared with the HSI's close of 15,276.9. Hong Kong stocks plunged almost 4% to hit their lowest level since November 2022 on Wednesday.
Organizations: Sydney Opera House, Getty, Reserve Bank, Nikkei Locations: Sydney Opera House Sydney , New South Wales, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Chicago, Osaka, Hong Kong
Trying to buy something without enough money in your checking account can lead to a hefty surprise overdraft fee . If the Biden administration gets its way, those fees, which produce major profits for banks, could soon shrink substantially. Consumers are hit with overdraft fees when they withdraw more money from their accounts than what they have in it. Overdraft fees often come as a surprise for consumers, and many may have had credit available to cover a purchase without going into the red on their checking accounts. "These overdraft loans will simply have to play by the rules."
Persons: Biden, Rohit Chopra, Chopra, Louis Organizations: Service, Consumer Financial, Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Trade Commission
Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.
Persons: , Wells, , , Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland
The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.
Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading following a losing session to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, along with S&P 500 futures . Interactive Brokers lost nearly 3% in extended trading after posting fourth quarter adjusted earnings that fell short of expectations. The Federal Reserve's beige book and business inventories for November are also slated for Wednesday, along with remarks from New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams.
Persons: Stocks, Christopher Waller, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Dow Jones, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Interactive, Federal Reserve, Dow, Bank of America, LPL, U.S . Bancorp, New York Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, New
In December, the policymakers collectively forecast that they would cut their rate three times this year. The Fed prefers for inflation to be about 2%, which it sees as having little negative effect on the economy. Fed officials, he added, will want to see further evidence that inflation is still on track to 2% before embarking on rate cuts. Before Waller spoke, Wall Street investors had placed a 72% likelihood of a rate cut in March, based on futures prices. Waller's comments followed similarly optimistic remarks from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, last week.
Persons: Christopher Waller, , ” Waller, Waller, Krishna Guha, Waller's, ” Guha, John Williams, Williams, Powell's, ” Williams Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Fed's, of Governors, Fed, Wall Street, Brookings Institution, , Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Opinion | Is the Fed Falling Prey to Groupthink?
  + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
If you’re looking to argue that the Fed suffers from too much unanimity, the inflationary surge of 2022 looks like evidence. In speeches, various members of the committee had been expressing concerns about inflation, but they weren’t voting that way. She worked at the Fed for 25 years in stints between 1984 and 2022, including one writing up the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Meade said one reason dissents are few is that “the meetings aren’t about today, they’re about tomorrow.” Committee meetings occur eight times a year. If a voter feels uncomfortable with the (unanimous) rate decision, that person will try to rally support for a different path at future meetings.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis, Ellen Meade, , ” Meade, Levin, Meade Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Duke University, Fed, Open
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
As of September, US credit-card delinquency rates were at the highest rate in a decade. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said 3.2% of card balances were at least 30 days past due. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In the second quarter of 2021, credit card delinquency rates were at historic lows.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Service, Philadelphia, Business
There are some trades for investors looking to avoid a possible asset bubble and other potholes that could be ahead. The standard 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose even further, a function of both the rising risk-free rate and the rising spread. Buying bonds has interest rate risk. Moreover, the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries is unusually high. Risk-free rates stay static or even rise mildly, but if the spread narrows mortgage rates could fall, a tailwind for a mortgage portfolio.
Persons: There's, Murray Rothbard, Milton Friedman, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke's, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Howard Marks, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Marks, Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Vanguard Value, Technology, MBS Locations: U.S, deflate, Berkshire
Credit card delinquencies surpass pre-pandemic levels
  + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN —More Americans are buckling under the weight of mounting credit card debt. The Philadelphia Fed analyzed consumer credit card and mortgage data that large banks provide to the Federal Reserve on a quarterly basis. As such, a greater share of people are revolving all or part of their credit card balance. This nearly three-year stretch of high inflation and strong consumer spending has helped to send consumer debt — especially credit card balances — ballooning. It’s typically practical matters — that surprise medical bill, unexpected home or car repair, and day-to-day expenses — that get people into credit card debt, Rossman said.
Persons: New York CNN —, Gene Huang, Anna Veksler, , Ted Rossman, Bankrate, Rossman, “ That’s, it’s, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, Philly Fed, CNN Business Locations: New York
Consumer spending remained remarkably resilient throughout 2023, even in the face of prolonged inflation and high interest rates. "Nonetheless, those tailwinds are not necessarily sustainable," Kleinhenz said in the January issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review, released Tuesday. Americans are racking up more 'phantom debt'56 million Americans have been in credit card debt for over a yearRecent reports already show signs of strain. In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, surpassing $1.08 trillion, according to the latest quarterly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month and fewer are able to pay off their balances in full.
Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: National Retail Federation, Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Buy now, pay later plans gained popularity in 2023 as an alternative to high-interest credit cards. Buy now, pay later use surged recently and those bills are now dueThe use of buy now, pay later plans skyrocketed during the 2023 holiday season. According to Adobe, which tracks online sales, buy now, pay later plans use was up 47% on Black Friday and 43% on Cyber Monday. According to PYMNTS' survey, 39.6% of respondents used buy now, pay later plans for clothing and accessories and 33.7% used them for groceries. Buy now, pay later debt can be advantageous if used correctly.
Persons: , Rather, Peter Cade, PYMNTS, Tim Quinlan, Shannon Seery Grein, Selcuk, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Maria Bartiromo, Luschini, Warren Buffett, Buffett, I've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Adobe, Household Economics, Science Research Network, Economic, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Wells, US Locations: Wells Fargo
Economist Alberto Musalem was named the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on Thursday. The St. Louis Fed representative is an alternate member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and will vote in 2025. St. Louis Fed First Vice President Kathy O'Neill has been holding the position in the interim. "Alberto will be an outstanding president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed," said St. Louis Fed director Carolyn Chism Hardy, president and CEO of Chism Hardy Investments and deputy chair of the bank's search committee. "I am deeply honored to serve as the next president of the St. Louis Fed and grateful for the opportunity to promote a strong, resilient and inclusive economy," Musalem said.
Persons: Alberto Musalem, Louis, Musalem, James Bullard, Kathy O'Neill, Alberto, Louis Fed, Carolyn Chism Hardy, Chism, Hardy, Paul Tudor Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Purdue University, Louis Fed, Market, Investments, Evince Asset Management, New York Fed, Tudor Investment Corp, Eighth, CNBC PRO Locations: St
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