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☆ Goldman Sachs expects inflation to 'fall significantly' in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation is likely to show a steep fall in 2023 while remaining above a level where the Federal Reserve feels comfortable, according to the latest Goldman Sachs forecast. "We expect core inflation to fall significantly in 2023 for three key reasons," Goldman economist Spencer Hill said in a client note filed over the weekend. Fed officials currently expect core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, to fall to 3.1% in 2023 before tailing off to 2.3% and 2.1% respectively in subsequent years. The bad news: Even with the substantial drop-off in inflation, the Fed still could feel under pressure to bring it down more. "From the Fed's perspective on inflation, 'falling significantly' and 'returning to target' are two very different things," Hill said.

☆ Think the dollar is about to peak? Wall Street pros explain how to trade it
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts expect the dollar to decline against 18 out of 38 currencies in the fourth quarter of this year, according to FactSet data. UBS UBS considers selling the dollar against G-10 currencies being a "top investment idea for 2023." According to the investment bank, years of negative interest rates have led to a sizeable un-hedged buildup of dollars worldwide. BCA Research Analysts at BCA Research say from a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a reversal. Goldman Sachs The Wall Street bank remains bullish on the dollar over the next three months and sees certain G-10 currencies only recovering beyond the six-month horizon.

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China’s diesel exports accelerated significantly in September after being severely restricted over the previous 13 months, according to data from the customs service. Faster exports will provide some relief amid a global diesel shortage, but are unlikely to be enough to stabilise and rebuild global inventories, or offset any future disruption as a result of sanctions on Russia’s fuel exports. Diesel exports were reduced by a total of 16.3 million tonnes, or 122 million barrels, over 13 months compared with the pre-June 2021 trend. Recently, extra quotas have been awarded, which should help relieve some of the global shortage, provided they are maintained at a higher level. Extra diesel shipments out of China will help, but rebalancing the diesel market still requires slower growth in the global economy and fuel consumption.

☆ This move can trim or erase a tax bill if you had to sell stocks at a loss this year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

That means many investors will have to sell assets at a loss, going against one of the most basic investing rules, to buy low and sell high. How tax loss harvesting works Investors who have sold assets at a loss this year from a brokerage account can use that to offset or even completely erase any capital gains taxes owed. If your losses exceed your capital gains or you didn't have any, you can deduct up to $3,000 of income from your federal tax bill. Evercore ISI in a Nov. 6 note made a list of such stocks that it sees as good buying opportunities if you sold a similar name for tax loss harvesting. Because of this, it may make sense to consult both a tax professional and a financial advisor to ensure you're using tax loss harvesting as efficiently as possible.

☆ A recession in the US is not a slam dunk, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —While investors, business leaders and some economic models continue to warn a recession is imminent, Wall Street’s most powerful investment bank remains cautiously optimistic. Goldman Sachs told clients on Monday it still sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months. “We still see a very plausible non-recessionary four-step path from the high-inflation economy of the present to a low-inflation economy of the future,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. In other words, a recession is not a slam dunk. Goldman Sachs concedes that there has been “much less progress” on the price side.

☆ Linde's potential delisting from Germany's biggest stock exchange matters for shareholders like us
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The Club holding is currently listed on two different stock exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange in the U.S. and Germany's Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The main stock index in Germany is the DAX, roughly equivalent to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Additionally, most actively managed mutual fund managers in Europe prohibit any one company stock from comprising more than 10% of a fund. Management believes this cap and associated pressure has negatively impacted Linde's valuation, and shares could realize their full potential by delisting from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. But the trading action in Europe is the completely wrong way to approach Linde's stock.

☆ JPMorgan's new affordable advice service lets investors call advisors as often as they want. Here's how it fits into exec Kristin Lemkau's plan to turbocharge the wealth business.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan's new program lets clients get financial advice via phone or video as often as they want. The Personal Advisors unit is part of US wealth head Kristin Lemkau's digital ambitions. This new Personal Advisors channel is part of US wealth management CEO Kristin Lemkau's plan to expand digital offerings. It launches with more than 200 licensed financial advisors in seven metropolitan hubs, including Atlanta, Chicago, Jersey City, and San Antonio. The new remote advisory business was the "last white space" for JPMorgan, said Lahovitsky, head of Personal Advisors.

☆ Top ranked advisors say these are the 3 biggest investing mistakes people make during recessions
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

These are some of the biggest investing mistakes, according to top advisors. "But you have to remember the stock market has done well over time." "We're more fixated on what we could potentially lose on paper than what opportunities pass us by that we never capitalize upon," said Josh Reidinger, CEO of Waverly Advisors in Birmingham, Alabama, which ranked No. Josh Reidinger CEO of Waverly AdvisorsThere's a risk of missing future gains when steering clear of the stock market, as research shows some of the best returns may follow the biggest stock market dips. Josh Reidinger CEO of Waverly AdvisorsMistake No.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel supplies are becoming critically low with shortages and price spikes likely to occur in the next six months unless and until the economy and fuel consumption slow. The deficit has been worsening steadily since the start of the year when stocks were 15 million barrels (-11% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the ten-year average. Chartbook: U.S. distillate fuel oil inventoriesReflecting the intensifying fuel shortage, futures prices for ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered in New York Harbor in December are trading at a premium of $60 per barrel over Brent. If confirmed that would take some of the pressure of distillate inventories. Rebalancing diesel supply will likely require a further rise in interest rates and tighter financial conditions in the United States and other major economies to reduce fuel consumption to more sustainable levels.

☆ 3 takeaways from our daily meeting: Halliburton earnings beat, Club stocks in the news, TJX is best-of-breed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. HAL earnings beat Club stocks making news: STZ, LIN TJX is a best-of-breed stock 1. HAL earnings beat Halliburton (HAL) beat earnings and revenue expectations in its third-quarter results, reported before the bell on Tuesday. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Op-ed: Investing isn't a game. Take risks and make wild predictions in fantasy football, not with your money
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Dave Butler | Co-Ceo At Dimensional Fund Advisors | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Kikoncos | Getty ImagesIt's Sunday morning, and my kids are checking player reports to evaluate their fantasy football lineups. In many ways, the highs and lows of fantasy football remind me of how many people approach investing. But with your investment portfolio, the fantasy can only go so far and the stakes can be much higher. This may be a good time to think about the difference between speculating and long-term investing — and recognize that your investment decisions have real and lasting consequences. Your investment decisions should be based on a time horizon that matches your goals.

☆ Goldman Sachs sees path to a soft landing for the economy getting clearer
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

There may be a path to a soft landing after all. "So far, slowing growth and rebalancing the labor market is going better than expected," Goldman economist Joseph Briggs wrote in a separate note. "Industry-level data strongly suggests that the path to a soft landing assumed in our baseline economic forecast is possible." "Case studies on the retail trade and accommodation and food services industries strongly suggest that the path to a soft landing assumed in our baseline economic forecast is possible," Briggs wrote. Even with those imbalances, though, he said progress overall "generally supports the prospects of a soft landing."

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Global freight volumes have begun to fall as overall consumer and business spending slows and the composition rotates from merchandise back to services after the pandemic. Chartbook: Global freight and manufacturing activityMANUFACTURING STALLSThe slowdown will gradually unblock supply chains and ease some of the intense upward pressure on merchandise prices that has occurred since mid-2020. The World Trade Organization forecasts merchandise trade will increase by just 1.0% in 2023 after rising 3.5% in 2022 (“Trade growth to slow sharply in 2023”, WTO, Oct. 5). The forecast growth in world merchandise trade volumes next year would be among the slowest rates in the last 40 years. The slowdown in industrial output and freight has already been underway for at least the last 3-6 months in most countries.

☆ Analysis: Foreign banks amass reserves at the Fed, bracing for funding stress
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

So when the Fed embarked on QT, the expectation was that bank reserves held at the Fed would decline. But the decline in bank reserves has been more rapid than what some had anticipated. As of Oct. 5, bank reserves at the Fed fell under $3 trillion to $2.972 trillion, down roughly $1.3 trillion from a peak of $4.3 trillion in December 2021. As domestic bank reserves diminish, those held by FBOs at the Fed have gotten more scrutiny. "If there are structural reasons that make foreign banks more eager to hold reserves while large domestic banks' reserves declined, then there may be a risk of another inadvertent case of gridlock," said Lou Crandall, chief economist, at money market research firm Wrightson.

☆ Wall Street surges as market seeks bottoming signs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

FILE PHOTO: Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. That seems to be the daily MO for the market.”PHIL BLANCATO CEO OF CEO OF LADENBURG THALMANN ASSET MANAGEMENT“This is the turnaround week every single year. If you look for the single best turnaround week for the year, it’s always the second week of October. The fourth quarter is on average the best quarter every single year and on average the turnaround week happens the second week of October. You’re seeing earnings hold on so far.

☆ This ETF topped $1 billion in assets this week as investors flock to managed futures strategies
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One of the best performing categories of the exchange-traded fund industry in 2022 eclipsed a key milestone this week, as the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) topped $1 billion in assets under management Managed futures strategies , which go short and long various contracts to make large macro bets, are one of the best performing sectors of funds in 2022. The fund is by far the largest managed futures ETF, according to VettaFi. It uses performance data from hedge funds to derive the positions likely held by large funds in key futures contracts, such as stocks, gold and oil. Before this year, the ETF's hedge fund-like strategy and small size made it difficult to attract new investors, Beer said. You want the space," Beer said.

Then came the pandemic and a property crisis, and with them, clear evidence of the limits of the debt-fuelled, investment-driven model that had propelled China's economy and businesses like Shores'. "If there is no investment, consumption will be like a tree without roots," said Jia, who previously led a finance ministry think tank. Many uncertainties hang over China's economy: the zero-COVID policy, a crackdown on tech and other industries, geopolitical tensions and rising borrowing costs in export markets. China is widely expected to miss this year's 5.5% GDP growth target and Natixis estimates growth may not even top 3% a year into Xi's next mandate. Oxford Economics expects average annual GDP growth this decade to halve from the 1999-2019 average to 4.5% and slow to 3% in the decade after.

EU distillate inventories were just 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal level since 2004. The global petroleum and refining system has proved unable to keep up with rapid growth in fuel consumption as a result of the manufacturing and freight-led recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. In any event, accelerating refinery processing will simply push the shortage upstream from the fuel market to the crude market. But with spare capacity almost exhausted, a recession is the most likely route to rebalancing the distillate market in particular and the petroleum market in general. Related columns:- OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market (Reuters, Oct. 12).

☆ Absolutely, absolutely!
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeAll sides in the UK gilt markets are hanging tough. Prime Minister Liz Truss is 'absolutely' committed to her spending plans, the Bank of England is absolutely determined to end its bond-buying by Friday and the markets are absolutely unconvinced about stability and calm. If that wasn't enough cause for worry, August GDP data showed the United Kingdom is on the brink of recession. Yet, he points to how that may not mean the BoE continues buying gilts in conflict with its inflation objective. Meanwhile, investors anxiously await U.S. inflation data for September later on Thursday.

☆ Morning Bid: Absolutely, absolutely!
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Inflation: Is the Fed losing the war?
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“This inflation report today was an unmitigated disaster,” wrote Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a financial markets research company. Is the Fed losing the fight against inflation? But the effects of rate hikes can take months to be felt in the real economy. But the Fed is “losing the war” when it comes to price hikes for the services sector. Ultimately, some say the problem of pandemic-era inflation is just too complex to be fixed with the Fed’s blunt tools.

☆ The Fed is losing the war against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

☆ Manufacturing software startup Katana raises $35 million in a round led by Spotify-backer Northzone using this 19-slide pitch deck
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Estonian startup Katana has raised $35 million for its enterprise resource planning software. Check out the 19-slide pitch deck it used to raise the Series B round below. Estonian manufacturing software startup Katana has raised $35 million in a Series B round led by early Spotify investor Northzone. Northzone led the Series B round with additional participation from other VCs, including new investor Lightrock as well as returning investors Atomico, 42CAP, and several angel investors. Check out the 19-slide pitch deck Katana used to raise the fresh funds below.

Banknotes of the euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, GB pound and Chinese yuan are seen in this picture illustration, in Beijing, China, January 21, 2016. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterData showing U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September, further boosted the dollar against the yen. Following the U.S. PPI data, the greenback rose as high as 146.88 yen , its strongest level since August 1998. Japanese authorities staged their first yen-buying intervention since 1998 on Sept. 22, when the dollar was at 145.90 yen. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar sank to a 2 1/2-year low of US$0.6236, and was last flat on the day at US$0.6268.

The dollar strengthened 0.22% to 146.18 yen in Asian trading, after pushing as high as 146.39 for the first time since August 1998. The Japanese currency is particularly sensitive to the gap between U.S. and Japanese long-term bond yields. Japanese authorities staged their first yen-buying intervention since 1998 on Sept. 22, when the yen tumbled to as low as 145.90 per dollar. Elsewhere, sterling which earlier touched $1.0925, marking a fresh low since Sept. 29, bounced 0.4% to $1.1008 after the FT report. The euro slumped to its weakest since Sept. 29 overnight at $0.9670 and remained not far from that level, trading 0.08% lower than Tuesday's close at $0.96975.

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