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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCore PCE inflation is on its way to Fed's 2% goal, says Goldman Sachs' Jan HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss inflation and the changing rate cut narrative.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Jan Hatzius
Wall Street wrapped up another positive week, with the S & P 500 closing Friday above 5,000 for the first time ever. It was a pretty light week in terms of economic data releases, though we did get a favorable ISM Services number on Monday. Things will pick up next week with several closely watched macroeconomic updates, including two key government inflation reports. While no Club earnings are scheduled to report earnings in the week ahead, 61 companies in the S & P 500 will deliver their latest quarterly results. Consumer inflation: The main event of the week will come on Tuesday when the January consumer price index (CPI) is released.
Persons: Estee Lauder, Eli Lilly, Price, Bausch, Trimble, Krispy Kreme, Topgolf, Kraft Heinz, Martin Marietta, Owens Corning, WEN, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, Club, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Linde, Ford, Disney, Wynn Resorts, CPI, PPI, Palo Alto Networks, Nvidia, Bausch Health, Arista Networks, WM, Cadence Design Systems, ZoomInfo Technologies, Avis Budget, Brighthouse, Goodyear Tire &, Vornado Realty, Marriott International, Hasbro, Restaurant Brands, Molson Coors Beverage, Holdings, MGM Resorts, MGM, Akamai Technologies, American International Group, AIG, Topgolf Callaway Brands, CME Group, Sony, SONY, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Martin Marietta Materials, Ryder, Occidental Petroleum, Cisco Systems, Deere, Penn Entertainment, Southern Company, Coinbase, Trade, Materials, Rand, Texas, Housing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Albemarle, ALB, Ingersoll, New York City
"The market is too narrow and policy is too tight," Seaport macro strategist Victor Cossel wrote Tuesday. Cossel said the current market breadth for the S & P 500 , the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 is rolling over into the new year. Stocks have slipped to start the week after both the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at fresh record highs Friday . Tech stocks have led the charge that has driven the overall market higher, boosted by earnings results from Amazon and Facebook parent Meta Platforms . But the outperformance of tech stocks may come at a price to the broader market, Cossel said.
Persons: Victor Cossel, Cossel, Russell, Eli Lilly, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Seaport Research Partners, Nasdaq, Federal, Dow Jones, Tech, Amazon, Facebook, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft
The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander's chief economist told Bloomberg. That's because inflation is likely to remain stubborn and cutting rates closer to the election date could be controversial. But according to Stanley, inflation numbers won't look as strong this year as they were toward the end of last year. But introducing the first rate cut closer to election day is trickier, and could be construed as a boost to incumbent president Joe Biden. And Stanley argued that based on their comments at the January meeting, the Fed doesn't seem close to being convinced about an early rate cut.
Persons: Santander's, , Stephen Stanley, Stanley, We've, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
At its December meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could institute up to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. The first thing Sahm said to look out for is whether or not Powell makes clear that they will not cut rates at the March meeting. If he seems upbeat, it could indicate that the Fed is going to take a more dovish stance and cut rates on the earlier side. This would likely manifest via trouble in financial markets that then affects the real economy. They're taking some big risks in that they're talking about the real economy being resilient, and yet I don't think that's where — if the Fed causes a problem they're doing it in the real economy first," she said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Powell, Stocks, Organizations: Louis, Business, National Bureau of Economic, Fed Locations: St, Sahm
Declining inflation rates and consistent growth should create a solid background for stocks and other risky assets, even though some bouts of volatility are likely, according to Goldman Sachs. Broadly speaking, a "soft landing [is] on track," the firm said in a client note in which Goldman market experts said they expect the Federal Reserve soon to make a nod toward an easing in monetary policy that also will be market-positive. "The broad data still points firmly in the direction of easing inflation pressure and resilient growth, especially in the US," wrote Dominic Wilson, senior advisor in Goldman's Global Markets Research Group. But we still think it makes sense to fade those pullbacks and expect US equities and credit to make new highs, as they have been." "This week's FOMC meeting will need to remove the tightening bias to keep March alive, as the [Bank of Canada] did last week, but is unlikely to preview a March cut," Wilson wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Dominic Wilson, Wilson, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Markets Research, Gross, Bank of, CME Locations: Bank of Canada
Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
All three major averages posted gains for the third consecutive week, lifted by solid quarterly earnings and positive economic data. Earnings season ramps up next week, with five of the Super Six mega-cap stocks delivering results. Employment numbers are the most important economic data, with Friday's January nonfarm payrolls report carrying the most weight. The January ISM Manufacturing report on Thursday and December's factory orders report Friday are expected to show the sector still in contraction mode. But earnings and commentary this week from peer Sartorious made us encouraged about a return to growth in 2024.
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Mortgage rates ticked up a bit mid-week, but they're back down today. This means it's possible we'll have to wait until later in the year for mortgage rates to come down substantially. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.96%, a 20-basis-point increase from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, they've, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, Fed, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Excluding energy and food, components that tend to be more volatile, the closely watched core PCE price index rose 2.9% annually, a slower pace than the 3.2% rate seen in November. The core PCE gauge is at its lowest point since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the headline PCE index rose 0.2%, a slight acceleration from the 0.1% drop seen in November when gas prices were tumbling. The core PCE index also rose by 0.2% from the prior month. Adjusting for inflation, spending was up 0.5%.
Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Commerce Department, Consumer Locations: New York
The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2% for the month, as did the core index that omits food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the overall index remained unchanged at 2.6% while the core fell to 2.9% from 3.2% in November. The rise in the core index was the slowest since the spring of 2021. The core index is often cited by Fed officials as their barometer for inflation. “The meeting statement is likely to drop the hawkish bias from its forward guidance, but stop short of signaling rate cuts.
Persons: , Robert Frick, , Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Jeremy Schwartz, Ruchir Sharma Organizations: Federal, Economic, Fed, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Nomura Securities, Nomura, Aichi Amemiya
Wall Street is headed into the thick of earnings season, with results on deck from the bulk of the so-called Magnificent Seven names. On top of that, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and the January jobs report will be in focus. Federal Reserve meeting Investors aren't anticipating much out of the Fed meeting next week. Market participants say recent reports show the trends have been going in the right direction, and Friday's report is expected to confirm the softening in the jobs market. Other significant earnings in the week ahead include Boeing , a major Dow component.
Persons: Russell, we've, Shannon Saccocia, Jonathan Krinsky, Tesla, that'll, Hogan, you've, John Bailer, Jerome Powell, Tony Welch, Welch, FactSet Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan, Riley Securities, Newton Investment Management, Fed, PCE, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Dallas, Whirlpool, Petroleum, United Parcel Service, General Motors, Pfizer, Devices, ADP, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Apple, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Thursday's, nonfarm payrolls, Chicago, Royal Caribbean, Michigan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is focused on the interaction between inflation and the jobs market, says Steven WietingSteven Wieting, Chief Investment Strategist & Chief Economist at Citi Global Wealth Management Investments, discusses today's Core PCE report and what it means for the economy.
Persons: Steven Wieting Steven Wieting Organizations: Citi Global Wealth Management Investments, PCE
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed should not be such a prominent presence in financial markets, says Judy SheltonJudy Shelton, Independent Institute senior fellow, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss December's PCE inflation data, state of the economy, the Fed's rate path decision, and more.
Persons: Judy Shelton Judy Shelton Organizations: Independent Institute
Fourth quarter GDP PCE price index correction
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 2.7% on an annual basis, down from 5.9% a year ago. An earlier version mischaracterized the figures.
Dollar treads water ahead of U.S. GDP; ECB meeting in spotlight
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Traders have been consolidating positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The report is, however, likely to show that the U.S. avoided a recession in 2023 and is expected to show moderating inflation in the last quarter, stoking expectations of rate cuts sometime in the first half of 2024. Other U.S. data this week includes the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday. The move from the central bank comes after a Bloomberg report earlier this week of a rescue package worth $278 billion to help stabilise the battered stock markets. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar struggled to sustain a China-inspired rally earlier this week.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Central Bank, Traders, U.S, Asia FX, InTouch, ECB, Wednesday, Bloomberg, Australian, New Zealand, Aussie, Bank of, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, U.S, China
The Dow Jones and S&P both hit all time highs with the Dow Jones closing over 38,000 points for the first time ever as stocks continue to rise. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 68 points, or 0.2%. During the regular session, the S&P 500 leapt to fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 advanced 0.5%, and the Nasdaq ticked up by 0.2%, while the Dow added 0.6%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that core PCE prices gained 3% in December on a year-over-year basis.
Persons: Dow Jones, Michael M, Dow Organizations: NEW, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Intel, Dow Jones Industrial, Mobile, Nasdaq, Dow, Gross, PCE, Federal Reserve, Norfolk Southern, Colgate, Palmolive, American Express Locations: New York City
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down around 2 basis points at 4.1263% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slid around 2.5 basis points to 4.3285. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Monday morning as investors geared up for another big week of economic data . Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week, with a preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth figure due on Thursday and the Commerce Department's closely-watched PCE price index for December out Friday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Friday that investors should be watching this data point when trying to plot the Fed's rate path. Auctions will be held Monday for $77 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $70 billion of 26-week bills.
Persons: Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Commerce, Chicago Fed, CNBC
Gold holds steady as traders anticipate US economic data
  + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold edged 0.1% lower to $2,026.39 per ounce by 0348 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,028.00. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March have dropped to 49% from about 71% two weeks ago, according to LSEG's interest-rate probability app IRPR. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1%, while yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes slipped from a more than a month high to 4.1111%. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $22.55 per ounce, platinum was steady at $898.95, and palladium fell 0.1% to $945.88.
Persons: Matt Simpson Organizations: Federal, U.S, PMI Locations: Singapore, U.S
Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.
Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S
The positive economic developments as well as Fed officials’ forecasts for at least three rate cuts this year had investors eying a March pivot. Meanwhile, Barkin — who will also be voting on Fed policy decisions at meetings this year — isn’t ruling March out entirely. For Barkin, “the breadth of inflation settling” and “the consistency of inflation settling” matter in his evaluation of whether the inflation rate is approaching the Fed’s target. Unlike many Fed officials, Barkin does not have a PhD in economics but has an MBA and a law degree. Investors will be paying close attention to any hints of the timing of rate cuts in the central bank’s latest statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Persons: Tom Barkin, Barkin, eying, Christopher Waller, , Loretta Mester, Barkin —, isn’t, ” Barkin, , ” ‘ There’s, John Williams, Jerome Powell, Williams, “ There’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Richmond Federal, CNN, Fed, Cleveland Fed, FactSet, Richmond Fed, McKinsey, ” New York Fed, Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, That’s Locations: New York
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. "Monetary policy now is as tight as it has ever been on the precipice of a recession," he said, barring an exception in 1984. The problem is that the Fed badly misread how long high inflation would linger, prompting it to raise rates much more aggressively than needed. In December, the core inflation print notched an annual 3.2% increase. "In 2019 when they missed by a mere 30 basis points it was enough to get a 75-basis-point mid-cycle adjustment."
Persons: , Brevan Howard, Sully, Jason Cummins, Bloomberg's, Cummins, They've Organizations: Service, Business, Fed
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New
Fortunately, we'll get useful information in the coming weeks as earnings season ramps up and updated inflation data is released. We really want to see more supply come into the market to provide some relief on shelter costs. Looking to next week, we'll get a several key economic updates and a ramp up of earnings releases. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
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