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The turmoil inflicted on financial markets has sent cautious investors running away from volatile markets and toward more liquid alternatives. These funds invest in short-term securities like government bonds, certificates of deposit — or fixed-term savings accounts — and commercial debt. But money markets aren't without risks of their own, especially when they experience a large wave of investors all at once. What's happening: Since the Fed began to raise interest rates a year ago, the amount of money in money market funds has increased by roughly $400 billion. Money market funds are deeply interconnected with the wider financial system, and often face the same risks as banks.

☆ Premarket stocks: Americans are going all-in on cash. That could spell more trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The goal of a money market fund is to provide investors with a relatively stable investment option that offers higher returns than traditional savings. What’s happening: Since the Fed began to raise interest rates a year ago, the amount of money in money market funds has increased by roughly $400 billion. Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note on Thursday that Americans could sell as much as $1.1 trillion in stocks this year and put that money into credit and money market assets instead. Money market funds are deeply interconnected with the wider financial system, and often face the same risks as banks. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, a US government agency that insures deposits in banks and savings associations, does not insure cash invested in money market funds.

Similarly, the U.S. economy and stock markets tend to outperform during booms and draw in overseas investment that lifts demand for dollars. Surely times of great banking and credit stress should boost the greenback? And now we face a bout of severe banking stress alongside stubbornly high inflation that had almost all major central banks raising interest rates again over the past week despite the pretty clear underlying credit stress. JPMorgan's take on the stressed side of the dollar smile last week pointed out that "the underlying macro-financial pathology that necessitates lower yields is the primary determinant of dollar direction". Clearly, the dollar smile is no laughing matter.

☆ BofA, UBS trim forecast for Fed funds rate amid banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed's benchmark rate stood in the range of 4.75-5% following a quarter percentage point hike on Wednesday. BofA analysts said the consequent unexpected tightening in bank lending standards could substitute for further hikes. BofA and UBS no longer expect an interest rate hike in June and see the Fed funds rate peaking in May at 5-5.25% and 5.25-5.5%, respectively. Goldman Sachs, which expected the Fed to pause on Wednesday, maintained its terminal rate forecast in the 5.25-5.5% range, but now sees rates peaking in June instead of July. Money markets, which priced in a terminal rate close to 6% by September just as early as this month, now see the rate peaking at 4.9% by May.

☆ Morning Bid: Leaning back to Fed hike, UK inflation jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Two weeks of U.S. and European banking stress and failures leaves the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in the unenviable position of choosing between stabilising financial systems and fighting still historically high inflation. On top of that, the latest quarterly economic projections from Fed policymakers may reveal a big dispersion of views. Beyond the Fed, the dire UK inflation reading seems to have solidified expectations of another BoE rate rise on Thursday and a further move later in the year. If nothing else, it underlines in red ink just how all central banks are totally dependent now on incoming data evidence on what's happening in the real economy. With the U.S. dollar lower across the board ahead of the Fed meeting, sterling hit its highest level since early February.

☆ Bank of Canada fretted inflation could 'get stuck' above 2% target, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On March 8, the bank became the first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign, leaving the key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected. It vowed to hold off on further hikes as long as inflation continued to ease in line with its forecasts. In January the bank said it expected inflation to ease to 3% at around mid-year and to slow to 2% next year. But during the deliberations ahead of the announcement, the bank noted that services inflation "is proving sticky", according to minutes from the policy-setting meeting released on Wednesday. The five-member governing council remains "concerned about the risk that inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target," the minutes said.

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Worries over the banking crisis are boosting disparate assets, with traditional safe-havens such as gold, Treasuries and money markets seeing high demand along with more speculative instruments such as tech stocks and bitcoin. The gains have come alongside big moves in assets traditionally perceived as safe-havens during uncertain times. Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, saw a historic drop last week, while money market funds notched their biggest inflows since April 2020 in the week to March 15, Refinitiv Lipper data showed. Well, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down about 60 basis points from early March,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, in a Monday report. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs expects commodities supercycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Julia Payne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LAUSANNE, Switzerland, March 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said. "As losses mounted, it spilled into commodities," Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday. Currie emphasised the hit was to the supply side rather than demand and he remains very bullish on copper. We have peak supply occuring in 2024...Near term we put (the copper price) at $10,500 and longer term our price target is $15,000 a tonne." Copper hit a record high $10,845 in March 2022.

☆ Analysis: Market turmoil is doing central bankers' jobs for them
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reckons market turmoil may do some of the ECB's tightening for it if it dampens demand and inflation. Financial conditions reflect the availability of funding in an economy, so they dictate spending, saving and investment plans of businesses and households. Central banks have been trying to tighten them by raising rates to slow rising prices. Signs of tightening financial conditions were plentiful. "Central banks no longer have a good idea about the true tightness of monetary policy," he said.

☆ Dollar edges lower ahead of Fed, BOE
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar edged lower and sterling fell on Tuesday as traders reckoned banking stress would keep the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from hiking rates much further, or at all, later in the week. But European banks rallied on Tuesday for a second consecutive day eased some of those fears following UBS Group's state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse. The dollar has followed those expectations lower, though general nervousness in financial markets has tempered selling. The greenback ticked about 0.51% higher to $1.0774 per euro , while the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was 0.15% lower at 103.10. The Norwegian crown rose 0.35% to 10.6120 per dollar, after falling last week to its lowest level since early October.

☆ Yen drops, dollar on defensive as central banks seek to reassure markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Currency markets showed some cautious optimism after global authorities moved to stem contagion from a simmering banking crisis, with the safe haven dollar on the back foot and the yen tumbling amid a rebound in Treasury yields. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar jumped to a two-week high, while the euro edged higher for a third straight day. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan announced joint action to enhance market liquidity. The Australian dollar climbed 0.3% to $0.6721, and earlier touched $0.6743 for the first time since March 7. Although the banking system is the currency markets' most immediate focus, a Fed rate-setting meeting on Wednesday looms large.

☆ Global banking turbulence prompts Wall Street banks to trim hawkish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Peer Citigroup sees a smaller 25 bps hike, down from a 50 bps hike forecast earlier in the month. The brokerage started with a 50 bps hike and then changed to a pause following the collapse of SVB Financial. It now sees a 25 basis points hike. Nomura expects a 25 bps rate cut at the end of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday. Major investment banks now expect the ECB to deliver a 25 bps hike in May.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

☆ Take Five: Everything Everywhere All at Once
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Lender Credit Suisse will likely dominate a Swiss National Bank meeting and the Bank of England might place its inflation fight on hold. Some predict Credit Suisse could merge with peer UBS to rebuild Switzerland's reputation as a finance safe haven. Credit Suisse will also take centre stage when the SNB meets on Thursday. The Bank of England could be on the verge of wrapping up a 17-month campaign of raising rates to combat inflation. Labour market pressures - including wage inflation - are starting to soften.

☆ U.S. bank deposits have started moving to money market funds - Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 16 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said deposits have started to move out of U.S. banks and towards money markets funds, as investors seek the safety in Treasury securities amid worries about stresses in the banking sector. Retail money market funds have seen large and accelerating inflows over the last week, Goldman said in a note on Thursday, likely suggesting some migration away from deposits. Following the collapse of SVB Financial Group and Signature Bank, U.S. regional bank stocks have had a bruising last few days, as investors worried about possible deposit outflows causing capital issues at other regional banks. Money markets appear to have continued functioning fairly well in recent days, and facilities such as the Federal Home Loan Banks lending channel and the Bank Term Funding Program should help maintain "healthy" market functioning even if financing needs spike, Goldman notes. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

"Sterling markets will continue to digest yesterday’s Budget delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as well as the broader global environment. Markets remain ambivalent whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week," said Hann-Ju Ho, senior Economist, Commercial Banking at Lloyds Bank. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is a little behind the BoE in its quest to fight inflation. Traders attach a 60% chance of the ECB raising rates by 50 bps on Thursday, with a 40% chance of 25 bps. Money markets show investors expect ECB rates to peak around 3% later this year, compared with a peak of 4% just over a week ago.

☆ Wall Street closes higher as First Republic helps lift banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( David Carnevali | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies European Central Bank raises key policy rateFirst Republic Bank shares reverse course and turn higherMeta, Snap climb as U.S. threatens TikTok banNEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - A strong rebound by financials helped Wall Street's main indexes close firmly positive on Thursday, after some of the country's largest lenders came to the rescue of embattled First Republic Bank. "Banks are looking out for one another," said Huntington Private Bank chief investment officer, John Augustine. Shares of JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley were up 1.94% and 1.89% respectively, while the lifeline buoyed First Republic Bank (FRC.N), which gained 9.98%. The KBW regional banking index (.KRX) gained 3.26%, while the S&P 500 banking index (.SPXBK) advanced 2.16%, as both sub-indexes reversed losses. Concerns about banks have rattled the stock market in recent days after the collapse of SVB Financial fueled contagion fears.

☆ European shares choppy ahead of ECB decision, Credit Suisse jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Bansari Mayur Kamdar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was flat by 0925 GMT after rising as much as 1.6% in early trading. The banks sector index (.SX7P) added 1.3%, after logging its steepest one-day drop in more than a year in the previous session. Shares of the Zurich-based lender had tumbled 24% to a record low on Wednesday. The cost of insuring exposure to European junk corporate bonds also fell, in a sign of investor relief. Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Krishna Chandra EluriOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SummarySummary Companies Credit Suisse rebounds on lifeline from Swiss central bankHousing starts, jobless claims data due 8:30 am ETAdobe rises on upbeat profit forecastMeta, Snap climb as U.S. threatens TikTok banFutures mixed: Dow down 0.29%, S&P down 0.19%, Nasdaq up 0.16%March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Thursday as the Swiss central bank's lifeline for embattled Credit Suisse did little to boost investor sentiment as they awaited economic data for clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates. U.S.-listed shares of Credit Suisse rose 8.8% in premarket trading after the bank secured a credit line of up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity and investor confidence, which had nosedived after the lender's shares slumped on Wednesday. Troubles at Credit Suisse, coming on the heels of the collapse of SVB Financial (SIVB.O) and peer Signature Bank (SBNY.O) have sparked fresh worries about stress in the banking sector, dwarfing relief on expectations of less aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve. "Central banks are in a bit of a bind because they need to make sure that inflation is brought back under control. Shares of Adobe Inc (ADBE.O) supported Nasdaq futures, rising 5.8% in premarket trade after the Photoshop maker raised its 2023 profit target.

☆ Where wealthy investors are putting their cash after SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Robert Frank | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wealthy investors and family offices are moving more of their money out of bank cash-balances and into treasuries, money markets and other short-term instruments, according to wealth advisors. "Over [last] weekend there was a lot of worry," said Michael Zeuner, managing partner at WE Family Offices, which advises wealthy investors and family offices. The SVB crisis has only accelerated a broader push by wealthy investors over the past year to move cash out of bank balances and into Treasuries and money-markets. Loans and mortgagesWealthy investors and family offices will continue to rely on banks for loans and mortgages. But the strategy of banks requiring wealthy clients to give them deposits or primary-banking relationships in exchange for loans may be ending, advisers say.

☆ Morning Bid: Swiss lifeline, ECB dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Swiss lender said it would exercise an option to borrow from its central bank up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion). That followed assurances from Swiss authorities on Wednesday the country's second largest bank met "the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks". Policymakers and regulators across Europe and Asia rushed to reassure the public and markets that banks in their jurisdictions were safe and well-capitalised. Like other central banks, the ECB has been raising interest rates rapidly to curb inflation and has since July tightened credit at its fastest pace on record. As it stands, money markets now price an 80% chance the ECB will move tentatively and only hike by a quarter point to 2.75%.

☆ Credit Suisse woes knock euro, sterling, Swiss Franc
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) shares fell around 20% after its biggest investors said it could not provide more backing. The Swiss lender woes led the wider European banking index (.SX7P) to its lowest level since early January and triggered sharp sell off in the currency markets. The euro fell 1.2% to $1.0605, sterling dropped 0.8% to $1.2065 and the Swiss franc slid 1.2% to 0.9251 per dollar. "This morning’s Credit Suisse news is doing all of the damage in FX markets as European bank stocks take another beating today," said Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis at Monex. Money markets have changed their bets for the ECB rate hikes amid the European bank turmoil.

Investors had begun to doubt the ECB's commitment to another big rate hike this week after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the U.S. sent ripples through global financial markets. The source added that formal proposals for the meeting had not yet been distributed but policymakers had seen the new quarterly projections. They were likely to push back against committing to further rate increases and say instead that any new move would depend on incoming data. The ECB can push through decisions with a simple majority though President Lagarde has been known to seek the broadest possible consensus. Investors have sharply cut their bets on further rate rises since the SVB collapse, with the deposit rate now seen peaking at 3.65% in the autumn, compared with an outlook last week of more than 4%.

☆ VIEW UK budget: no recession in 2023; UK assets sink in global market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023." MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 3%, under pressure from a rout in global bank stocks, while the domestic-focussed midcap index (.FTMC) fell 2.5%. MONEY MARKETS: UK bond yields pared some of their daily declines, with the 10-year yield last down 19 basis points at roughly 3.30%, compared with a session low of 3.289% when Hunt began talking. EDWARD PARK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BROOKS MACDONALD, LONDON:"I would view this very much as a budget for the bond market." "When the dust settles, international investors will be constructive around the type of budget we've had today, which suggests a calmer approach to managing the UK.

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt presented less gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsROSIER OUTLOOKA rout in global banking stocks on Wednesday overshadowed many UK-specific moves. Investments announced by Hunt such as a corporate spending tax break, a boost for defence and extra childcare support were not viewed as particularly inflationary. Unlike in the last budget, noise around windfall taxes on oil and gas companies was muted in the run-up to the budget since energy prices have fallen dramatically since then. "In general, the budget is not the big story for gilts right now, global drivers are in the driving seat," said James Smith, economist at ING.

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