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Australian mining giant BHP is optimistic China and India's growth will boost commodity demand, even as the company reported a steep drop in half-year profits. His comments come as the miner recorded a 16% revenue drop in the six months ended December, from $30.53 billion to $25.71 billion. The company's half-year profits came in at $6.46 billion, 32% lower than the $9.44 billion in the same period a year ago. BHP attributed the declines to lower iron ore and copper prices. During the six-month period, iron ore prices fell to a low of $80.03 per metric ton on Nov. 1 while copper hit $3.29 a pound on Sept. 27.
A copper master and his copper products at the Coppersmith Bazaar in Baghdad, Iraq on March 15, 2022. The world is currently facing a global copper shortage, fueled by increasingly challenging supply streams in South America and higher demand pressures. A copper squeeze could be an indicator that global inflationary pressures will worsen, and subsequently compel central banks to maintain their hawkish stance for longer. "We're already forecasting major deficits in copper to 2030," said Wood Mackenzie's Vice President of Metals and Mining, Robin Griffin. He attributed it largely to ongoing unrest in Peru and higher demand for copper in the energy transition industry.
"Indian iron ore exports … have really come off in the last few months. India's exports of iron ore plunged by 90% year on year in October last year, and recorded an year-on-year decline as steep as 96% in September. Udit Kulshrestha | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAccording to Refinitiv, around 60% of global iron ore exports are destined for China. Iron ore exports from India were affected by a 50% tax on low-grade iron ore exports, which was reversed in late November. India's iron ore exports won't be the biggest factor in price volatility, however.
In the past, trips abroad often included personal luxury purchases for affluent Chinese consumers looking to take advantage of currency and tax benefits. CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images"China's domestic luxury consumption should far exceed that of overseas luxury consumption," said Zhang, who estimates that in the long run, domestic luxury consumption will account for 70% of the Chinese luxury consumers' spending, and a mere 30% from abroad. That would be the inverse of spending patterns before 2017, when over 70% of Chinese luxury spending took place outside of China, according to Zhang. He added it is unlikely the share of overseas luxury shopping for Chinese consumers will recover to pre-pandemic levels of over 70%. The increasing digitalization of shopping processes has also facilitated Chinese shopping online for luxury goods, Bain & Co said in a report.
People watch fireworks on the street during the Torch Festival on January 27, 2023 in Jieyang, China. Asia-Pacific shares traded higher as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting, as well as some economic data in the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.8% and the Topix climbed 0.7% even as Japan's factory activity logs a third consecutive month of contraction in January. South Korea's Kospi advanced 0.74% and the Kosdaq rose 0.78%, as South Korea's export numbers in January fell 16.6% on an annualized basis. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.47% in early trade.
Tesla 's stock has been on a "wild ride" and it's time to sell, according to Carter Worth, CEO and Founder of Carter Braxton Worth Charting. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker have surged 38% since the start of the year, following last year's 65% plunge. Last week, Tesla reported record revenue and an earnings beat. CEO Elon Musk also said the company was on target to potentially produce 2 million vehicles this year. ""The play here, if you are long, is to exit and with new money, I would be short."
Asia-Pacific shares are set to climb on Thursday as the region awaits the release of a slew of economic data. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 27,415 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 27,390. Both are higher compared to the Nikkei 225's last close at 27,395.01 as investors await the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from last week's meeting. The Japanese yen last stood at 129.32 against the U.S. dollar.
Asia-Pacific shares traded mixed on Wednesday, taking the lead from Wall Street's struggle for direction as China and Hong Kong markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. In South Korea, the Kospi rose 1.3%, while the Kosdaq climbed 1.16% in its first hour of trade. Japan's Nikkei 225 dipped 0.22% and the Topix shed 0.06%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 traded flat as investors await the release of the country's inflation reading.
Akos Stiller | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesPrices of silver could hit a nine-year high of $30 per ounce this year — possibly outpacing gold prices. No silver lining for silver supplies"We hit peak silver supply back about five, six years ago. The supply of silver, which is largely produced as a byproduct of lead-zinc, copper and gold mines, does not generally respond as quickly to demand. Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images"When silver prices go up, it's not like the silver mines can increase production, because the silver mines only supply about 25% of the silver," Smallwood said, adding that the market often relies on the lead-zinc mines to satisfy the higher demand. "I'm very bullish on gold, but I'm even more bullish on silver," Smallwood said.
Asia-Pacific stocks fall tracking losses on Wall Street
  + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that interest rates have to keep moving higher even with recent inflation readings softening. In an interview with the Associated Press, the policymaker said the Fed likely will have to take its benchmark interest rate above 5% in order to get inflation moving consistently down to the central bank's 2% goal. She noted that markets and the economy absorbed the half-point December rate hike without a problem. "I just think we need to keep going, and we'll discuss at the [Jan. 31-Feb. 1] meeting how much to do at any one particular meeting," Mester said. The fed funds rate is currently targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.
A recession probably won't start now until later in 2023 as consumer spending has been stronger than expected and the Federal Reserve eases up on the intensify of its interest rate hikes, according to Bank of America. "That said, we think the headwinds will lead consumers to reduce spending and push the saving rate higher as the year progresses." That puts the recession into the second quarter, driven by a an investment-led slowdown leaking to consumer spending. After pushing its benchmark borrowing rate up by 4.25 percentage points in 2022, the Fed is expected to ease back, with a 0.25 percentage point increase in February. Rate cuts likely won't come until 2024, the firm said.
Handbags displayed in a Chanel SA store window at the Avenuel department store, operated by Lotte Shopping Co Ltd., in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2021. Whether it's calf-leather Italian Prada bags or classic, checkered British Burberry trench coats, South Koreans are the world's biggest spenders on personal luxury goods per capita, Morgan Stanley said. The investment bank estimated South Korean total spending on personal luxury goods grew 24% in 2022 to $16.8 billion, or about $325 per capita. Luxury brands have also highlighted strong sales in Korea. Moncler said its revenue in South Korea "more than doubled" in the second quarter compared with before the pandemic.
The slight decline in consumer prices in December will not change the path for the Federal Reserve, as it meets to raise rates Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. CPI fell by 0.01%, as expected by economists, and was up 6.5% from a year ago. Stock futures were higher after the report while Treasury yields fell. Swonk and other economists expect the Fed to raise rates by a half percentage point on Feb. 1. The futures market, however, has been pricing in a quarter point hike.
SHANGHAI, CHINA - MARCH 01: Skyscrapers stand at the Pudong Lujiazui Financial District on March 1, 2022 in Shanghai, China. Asia-Pacific shares traded mixed as investors look ahead to the U.S. consumer price index report Thursday. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 traded up 1.03% in its first hour of trade. The Nikkei 225 dipped fractionally after reversing earlier gains, while the Topix climbed 0.19%. South Korea's Kospi traded flat, while the Kosdaq declined 0.19%.
Pedestrians by the retail stores at Pitt Street Mall in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, on Monday, Dec. 26, 2022. Asia-Pacific shares are set to trade higher as investors look ahead to the U.S. consumer price index, which would set the Federal Reserve's trajectory in its attempt to tackle inflation after raising rates seven times in 2022. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% ahead of the release of its inflation print for November. Both are higher compared to the Nikkei 225's last close at 26,175.56. Overnight on Wall Street, major stock indexes closed higher as investors continued building on the new year's early rally.
Passengers prepare to enter Shenzhen through the Lok Ma Chau Spur Line Control Point on the first day of the resumption of normal travel between Hong Kong and mainland China on Jan. 8, 2023 in Hong Kong. Analysts expect that the list of destinations for vaccine tourism will grow. 'Natural first destination': Hong Kong"I believe that the natural first destination of the Chinese vaccine tourism is Hong Kong. "It's been long since I went to Hong Kong. But Hong Kong won't provide free Covid vaccinations to short-term travelers.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its Dec. 13-14 meeting, which showed central bank officials expect rates to be higher for "some time." "Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 percent, which was likely to take some time," the meeting summary stated. "In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy." "A number of participants emphasized that it would be important to clearly communicate that a slowing in the pace of rate increases was not an indication of any weakening of the Committee's resolve to achieve its price-stability goal or a judgment that inflation was already on a persistent downward path," the minutes said.
A woman walks at the Bund in front of the financial district of Pudong in Shanghai, China. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 25,800 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 25,790. Both are lower compared to the Nikkei 225 's last close at 26,094.50. Asia-Pacific shares are poised to trade mixed as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for December, watching for signs of more interest rate hikes. In the day, investors look ahead to the release of the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, as well as the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting set to come out in the afternoon stateside.
Crimson clouds light up the skyline of Victoria Harbour on July 14, 2022 in Hong Kong, China. Asia-Pacific markets are set to fall, taking the lead from Wall Street's losses overnight as investors looked to the year ahead. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 26,095 while its counterpart in Osaka stood at 26,030 – both lower compared to the Nikkei 225's last close at 26,340.50. Hong Kong's further easing of Covid restrictions takes into effect today, with stocks related to re-opening being closely watched. South Korea's industrial production for November grew 0.4% after seeing four consecutive months of declines.
Emerging market value stocks are likely to return a real 9% per annum over the next seven years, while emerging market stocks as a whole are forecast to return 5.2% a year. International small-cap stocks are projected to return a real 4.5% while international large-cap stocks come in at 2.4% a year, after inflation. The U.S. isn't forecast to keep up, with U.S. small caps projected to shrink 1.4% each year after inflation, and U.S. large caps estimated to fall an average 1.8% annually over seven years. International bonds hedged against currency exposure are forecast to lose 1.8% a year and U.S. bonds to return -0.3%. At the start of 2022, GMO pegged emerging market value stocks to return +5% annually over seven years, emerging market stocks +2.2%, international small caps -1.2%, international large caps -2.5%, U.S. small caps -6.5% and U.S. large caps -7.3%.
Farmers sort and package lemons at a workshop on November 24, 2020 in Neijiang, Sichuan Province of China. Covid cases in China saw a spike following the country's relaxation of strict Covid rules. Also rising: the prices of traditional Chinese medicine and lemons, as Chinese citizens scramble for protection from the virus. "I did not know that lemon prices could triple in one day," posted another Weibo user. Fresh Hippo, another e-commerce merchant owned by Alibaba, reported that week-on-week sales of canned yellow peaches popped almost 900%.
Asia-Pacific shares traded lower, taking the lead from losses on Wall Street while investors also looked ahead to some economic data in the region. Japan's core consumer price index at 3.7% in November on an annualized basis, marking the fastest pace since December 1981, when it saw a 4.3% jump. The Nikkei 225 fell 1% in its first hour of trade. The Japanese yen stood at 132.38 against the U.S. dollar. South Korea's Kospi also fell 1.24%.
A customer looks at packages of vegetables at an E-Mart Inc. store in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday, Aug, 30, 2022. Asia-Pacific shares are set to trade higher, carrying on the optimism on Wall Street as stocks saw a boost from upbeat earnings and a strong consumer confidence reading. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.69% in its first hour of trade. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 26,585 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 26,410 – both are higher than the Nikkei 225's last close at 26,387.72. The Japanese yen weakened slightly 0.11% to stand at 132.32 against the U.S. dollar.
Dan Yergin predicts oil prices could hit $121 a barrel when China fully reopens, but warned there are three major uncertainties looming over the market. "Our base case for 2023 is $90 for Brent but you have to look at other cases," the S&P Global vice chairman said, adding there are three major uncertainties: the Federal Reserve's decisions, China demand and Moscow's reaction to the price caps. "If China gets over Covid ... then you add a lot of demand to the market," Yergin told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Tuesday. That could be "one big boost" and push prices to $121 a barrel, building on strains caused by underinvestment in oil and gas, Yergin said. On the flipside, Yergin said prices could fall to around $70 per barrel in a recession.
Pedestrians cross a road in front of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Asia-Pacific shares opened in positive territory as investors look ahead to a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. CPI data reading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 0.67% after Chief Executive John Lee announced further easing of Covid restrictions. The Nikkei 225 in Japan added 0.40% to close at 27,954.85, while the Topix inched up 0.43% to 1,965.68. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.29%.
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