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The firm’s monthly survey showed 107,000 jobs were added, well below the 145,000 estimate. “Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The ADP report comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for January, with consensus estimates for about a 180,000 gain in payrolls after December’s better-than-expected 216,000 increase. “The January jobs report will likely show that the labor market started the year on a solid note,” said Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist. The strong job market and U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter led the International Monetary Fund to boost its projections of global economic growth this year.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, December’s, Lydia Boussour, EY, “, Jerome Powell, José Torres Organizations: ADP, Labor, Federal Reserve, Observers, Interactive, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: U.S, payrolls, hawkish, –

WASHINGTON (AP) — Pay and benefits for America’s workers slowed last quarter, a trend that could affect the Federal Reserve's decision about when to begin cutting interest rates. Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, compensation growth slowed to 4.2% from 4.3%. The increase in wages and benefits was still mostly healthy, but the slowdown could contribute to the cooling of inflation. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesGrowth in pay and benefits, as measured by the ECI, peaked at 5.1% in the fall of 2022. The Fed’s goal is to slow inflation so that even smaller pay increases can result in inflation-adjusted income gains.

Persons: it's Organizations: WASHINGTON, Labor Department, Federal Reserve

☆ 10-year Treasury yield falls as Fed meeting is due to begin
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.0586%. the 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis points lower at 4.3180%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Tuesday as investors awaited fresh economic data and as the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting is set to begin. The Fed's January meeting is due to kick off Tuesday and conclude with a fresh interest rate decision and guidance on the outlook for monetary policy on Wednesday. At the Fed's last meeting in December, policymakers indicated that they were expecting three rate cuts in 2024, but minutes from the meeting showed that the path ahead for monetary policy remained highly uncertain.

Persons: December's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Traders, U.S . Labor

The business group’s consumer confidence index rose to 114.8 from a revised 108 in December. The present situation Index – a measure of current business and labor market conditions – surged to 161.3 from 147.2 last month. And it comes as the Federal Reserve is meeting in Washington to set interest rate policy, with economists forecasting the central bank will hold interest rates steady. But, he adds, “The Fed’s not going to change” at its first meeting of 2024 that began on Tuesday and do anything other than hold interest rates steady for the fourth meeting in a row. The index often leads other consumer sentiment surveys by two to three months, says Legal Shield CEO Warren Schlichting.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, Stephen Rich, Melissa Brown, Jerome Powell, Gene Goldman, Warren Schlichting, Schlichting, it’s Organizations: Conference, Mutual of America Capital Management, Federal Reserve, Investment Management, “, Labor Department, ADP Locations: U.S, Washington

Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon and Apple are all due to report this week. A few hours after the Treasury announces, the Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting, the first of 2024, and issue a statement on interest rates. “They are determined to avoid making the same mistake twice.”The week ends with Friday’s monthly jobs number for January. Rounding out the week will be a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The final reading for January is expected to show consumers feeling happier about the state of the economy and inflation.

Persons: ”, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome Powell, “, Powell, Bill Adams, ” Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Consumers, Labor Department, Treasury, Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, University of Michigan

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

More Americans filed jobless benefits last week but layoffs remain at historically low levels despite elevated interest rates and a flurry of job cuts in the media and technology sectors. Applications for unemployment benefits rose to 214,000 for the week ending Jan. 20, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Overall, 1.83 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the week that ended Jan. 13, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week. Weekly unemployment claims are viewed as representative for the number of U.S. layoffs in a given week. They have remained at extraordinarily low levels despite high interest rates and elevated inflation.

Organizations: Labor Department

The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, “, ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, “, Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine

If you’re worried you could be laid off — or if you’ve lost your job — personal finance professionals and career advisers have recommendations for how to cope. You can do this by leaving space in your resume to include keywords that are specific to the job you are applying for. IF YOU HAVE BEEN LAID OFFPRIORITIZE YOUR MENTAL HEALTHYour mental health can be heavily affected after a job loss. SHARE YOUR EXPERIENCEIt can be hard to talk about losing your job, and you should only share if you feel comfortable. “It shows that you have grit, that you’re willing to work hard and take care of your responsibilities,” she said.

Persons: you’re, you’ve, Jesse Mecham, Mecham, It’s, Scott Dobroski, “, ”, Marlo Lyons, Lyons, Dobroski, “ I’ve, ” Lyons, “ Don’t, Charles Schwab Organizations: eBay, Riot Games, Los Angeles Times, YOU, Jobs, LinkedIn, “, Labor Department, Associated Press, Charles, Charles Schwab Foundation, Inc, AP Locations: Lafayette , Colorado, U.S

☆ Labor Department's new independent contractor rule could help workers recover lost wages—here's how
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Gili Malinsky | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Independent workers make up about 45% of the U.S. workforce, according to a 2023 report by MBO Partners, a platform dedicated to their needs. That's more than 72 million Americans altogether, with nearly 30 million of them working independently full-time. This misclassification could lead to a loss in income, ineligibility for state and federal unemployment systems and so on. Nearly 10% of independent contractors make less than $7.25 per hour, according to the National Employment Law Project. A new rule change under the Fair Labor Standards Act, set to take effect on March 11, is aimed at curbing this misclassification.

Persons: Sally Dworak, Fisher, Samantha Sanders Organizations: MBO Partners, National Employment Law, Economic, Institute, Fair Labor Locations: NELP

☆ Some of the biggest optimists on Wall Street see 3 threats to a strong labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The labor market may be returning to pre-pandemic conditions, Goldman Sachs found. "Broadly speaking, our analysis indicates a labor market returning to pre-pandemic norms, best characterized as a somewhat tight labor market that does not pose an inflation problem," the economists wrote. AdvertisementRecently, labor market data has been somewhat all over the place. Though these findings may point to a recovering labor market reminiscent of pre-pandemic times, GS noted some headwinds. GS also found that the labor market is at a higher risk of what it called "deterioration" in 2024 than in 2019.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Service, GS, Labor, of Labor Statistics, ISM Services, Goldman, Federal Reserve, Employment Dynamics Locations: JOLTS

☆ Why that ‘last mile’ of the inflation fight may be more challenging
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.

Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Two important events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New

☆ Markets tried to fight the Fed on rate cuts. It didn’t work
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.

Persons: ’, Christopher Waller, ”, who’ve, Loretta Mester, “, Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, ”, JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States

☆ Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022, while CEO exits hit new high
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The number of Americans making first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to a level not seen since the fall of 2022, while CEO exits set a new high last year, according to fresh economic data released Thursday. There were an estimated 187,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week that ended January 13, according to Department of Labor data released Thursday. That’s down by 16,000 claims from the week before and marked the lowest level of first-time claims — considered a proxy for layoffs — since September 24, 2022. Weekly claims data can be quite volatile and are frequently revised, and economists caution that some one-off influences — in this case, harsh weather and a new year — could be at play. “Historically, we’ve seen large economic shifts preceded by a surge in CEO exits,” Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.

Persons: —, ” Andrew Challenger, Challenger, ”, “, ” Matthew Martin, Ian Shepherdson, ” Shepherdson Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor, Challenger, ”, Oxford Economics, ’, ” Thursday’s Labor Department Locations: New York, US

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in more than a year, underscoring the resilience of the labor market despite elevated interest rates that are intended to cool the economy. Jobless claim applications fell to 187,000 for the week ending Jan. 13, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That's the lowest four-week average in almost a year. Overall, 1.81 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the week that ended Jan. 6, a decline of 26,000 from the previous week. Weekly unemployment claims are viewed as representative for the number of U.S. layoffs in a given week.

Organizations: Labor Department

☆ Fed's Raphael Bostic expects rate cuts to happen in the third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic expects policymakers to start cutting rates in the third quarter of this year, saying Thursday that inflation is well on its way back to the central bank's goal. While the remarks help illuminate a timeline for rate cuts, they also serve as a reminder that Fed officials and market participants have different expectations about policy easing. The implied probability for a quarter percentage point reduction has decreased in recent days but still stood around 57% on Thursday morning. Pricing further indicates a total of six cuts this year, or one at every FOMC meeting but one from March forward. "In such an unpredictable environment, it would be unwise to lock in an emphatic approach to monetary policy," Bostic said.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, he's Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Market, Commerce, Labor Department, CNBC PRO Locations: Atlanta, Washington

☆ Weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since September 2022
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The labor market continued to show surprising resiliency in the early days of 2024, with initial jobless claims posting an unexpected drop last week. Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since Sept. 24, 2022, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The total marked a 16,000 decline from the previous week and came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 208,000. Along with the drop in weekly claims came an unexpected decline of 26,000 in continuing claims, which run a week behind. The total for continuing claims hit 1.806 million, below the FactSet estimate for 1.83 million.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Central

☆ A 16-year-old employee at a poultry processor was killed after being pulled into a chicken deboning machine. The proposed fine for the Mississippi plant: $212,000
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Mississippi poultry plant is facing more than $200,000 in fines after a teen worker was killed. AdvertisementA Mississippi poultry processing plant is facing more than $200,000 in fines from the US Department of Labor after a 16-year-old contract employee was killed after being pulled into a chicken deboning machine. Related storiesOn July 14, 2023, Pérez was sanitizing a chicken deboning machine when he became caught in a rotating shaft and pulled into the machine, according to the OSHA report. AdvertisementThe teenager was the second worker killed at the Hattiesburg facility in a little over two years. "Only about two years later nothing has changed and the company continues to treat employee safety as an afterthought, putting its workers at risk," he added.

Persons: —, Mar, Jac, Duvan Tomas Pérez, Pérez, Kurt Petermeyer, Jac Poultry Organizations: Service, US Department of Labor, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, OSHA, Business, Immigrant Alliance for Justice, Equity, The New York Times, Department, Labor, Labor Department, The Times, Department of Labor Locations: Mississippi, Georgia, Guatemala, Hattiesburg

When employees who contribute to a 401(k) plan leave a company, they have options for what to do with that money. The guidance investors receive from a financial professional or firm about handling old 401(k)s has been exempt from investment advice rules. And, there are different standards for financial advice. The Biden administration wants investment advice given when making these decisions to come from a fiduciary — and the Department of Labor has proposed rules to make that happen. They also argue that existing laws have been established to safeguard consumers seeking financial advice.

Persons: Biden, Labor Department's, Ann Wagner Organizations: Department of Labor, Finance, Labor, Financial, Capital Markets

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ The biggest risks US businesses face in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

But, while businesses have plenty to be grateful for and much to be optimistic about, the coast isn’t clear. Last week, surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and The Conference Board detailed the biggest risks that businesses are currently worried about. Here are some of the biggest risks for American businesses in 2024. Those financial stresses can reduce the willingness of banks to lend to others businesses and also to consumers,” she said. Bank earnings look really bad this quarter.

Persons: there’s, “, John Maynard Keynes, ”, ” Dana Peterson, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Peterson, ” Suzanne Clark, We’re, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Fitch, Clark, JPMorgan Chase, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur, FactSet, Martin Luther King Jr, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, US, of Commerce, of American, Conference Board, Conference, CNN, Fed, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, chamber’s State of American, AAA, Moody’s Investors Service, US Chamber, Commerce’s, Google, Citigroup, Bank, JPMorgan, FactSet, Revenue, Profit, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Bank of America, FDIC, Citi, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Alcoa, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, Wells, Corporate America, chamber’s State, BlackRock, Amazon, Argentina, Japan

Wholesale inflation fell by 0.1% in December, capping a year in which the rate of price increases dropped sharply, according to a report from the Labor Department released on Friday. The producer price index for all of 2023 came in at 1% compared to 6.4% in 2022. No indication of inflation at the wholesale level,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, posted on social media. A lot will depend on how the economy performs this year after putting in a strong performance in 2023. Wages are increasing and now running higher than the level of inflation, giving support to consumer spending.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, ”, Jeffrey Roach, ” “, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Ian Bremmer, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, ” Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, LPL Financial, BCA Research, Fed, U.S, Global Affairs, Goldman, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, JPMorgan Locations: Red, Iranian, Asia, U.S, Ukraine

☆ Wholesale prices unexpectedly fall 0.1% in December in positive inflation sign
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in December, providing a positive signal for inflation, the Labor Department reported Friday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI also was up 0.2%, in line with the estimate. For the full year, the final demand measure less food, energy and trade services rose 2.5% for all of 2023 after being up 4.7% in 2022. Markets initially reacted positively to the PPI release but turned lower through morning trading. PPI measures the prices that producers pay for goods and services, while CPI gauges what consumers pay in the marketplace.

Persons: Dow Jones, Kurt Rankin, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, PNC, Diesel, Traders, Federal, Market, JPMorgan Locations: U.S

On an annual basis, inflation ticked up to 3.4% from 3.1% previously. The core CPI, stripping out energy and food costs, was unchanged but dipped down to 3.9% annually from 4% in November. Government measures of housing costs tend to lag market rates, which have been trending down for apartment rental rates lately. The central bank decided at its meeting last month to leave interest rates unchanged while also penciling in at least three cuts in 2024. The Fed did warn that, should the economy perform stronger than expected, it retains the option to increase interest rates, though the probability of that is seen as low.

Persons: “, ”, Phillip Neuhart Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, Markets, First, Bank Wealth Management, Dow Jones Industrial

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