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☆ Elon Musk's biggest booster says it might be 'time to sleep on the floor' at Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Elon Musk might need to start sleeping at Tesla again as tough times mount, according to top bull Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley. The firm may slowly be exiting the EV industry, given rising Chinese competition and dimming outlooks, he said. "Looking ahead to Tesla's 1Q results ... investors are starting to ask: 'Is it time to sleep on the floor again?'" Though other analysts have touted full self-driving technology as a stock price headwind, Jonas sees commercialization at scale of these developments as far out. AdvertisementMarket challenges have already tanked Tesla's stock over 41% year-to-date.

Persons: Elon, Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley, Jonas, —, Elon Musk, Tesla, Tesla's, Musk Organizations: Service, Elon, EV

☆ Commercial real estate foreclosures have spiked 117% over the past year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Commercial foreclosures jumped 117% year-to-date in March, data from ATTOM shows. AdvertisementThe commercial real estate market is still struggling, made all the more clear by the rapid upswing in property foreclosures. Foreclosure activity jumped by 117% year-over-year in March, real estate data provider ATTOM reported on Wednesday. While high, commercial foreclosures are still under a 2014 peak of 889. AdvertisementEarlier this month, Fitch Ratings warned of a rising global contagion risk from commercial real-estate losses.

Persons: —, moratoriums, it's, delinquencies, Jamie Woodwell Organizations: Service, Mortgage Bankers Association, Real, Fitch

☆ The world's largest chipmaker just issued a warning that the industry's red-hot growth could slow
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

TSMC sees growth in the microchip industry slowing to 10%, it said in a post-earnings call. The dimmed outlook comes on slowdown expectations for automotive chips. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The update was offered during the firm's post-earnings call with analysts, and is premised on TSMC's shifting stance on automotive chips, used in vehicles. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Business

☆ The US freight recession keeps getting deeper
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

J.B. Hunt stock slid as much as 13% on Wednesday after an earnings report that missed estimates. Demand for its freight services was weaker than expected in the first quarter. The firm is a bellwether for the freight industry, which has been mired in a post-pandemic recession. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA leading freight company is seeing its stock tank after weak trucking volumes led to a first-quarter earnings miss on both profit and sales.

Persons: Hunt, —, JB Hunt Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Immigration has helped the hot US economy and labor market, but there's a risk of oversupply, Fitch says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Foreign-born workers are leading the increase in the US labor force, Fitch Ratings said. But a simple explanation could lie in US immigration trends, as a surge of foreign-born workers is propelling labor expansion, Fitch Ratings reported on Thursday. "The foreign-born labor participation rate is 66%, more than the native-born participation rate of 62%." AdvertisementBut while higher immigration flows should keep labor momentum going through this year, Fitch also cautioned that it risks an oversupply. Still, migrants' contribution to labor has significantly boosted economic growth, Fitch said, a point shared by previous research.

Persons: Fitch, —, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Olu Sonola Organizations: Service, Fitch, Wall Street, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, hirings

☆ The Fed may have no choice but to tip the US into recession, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed might have to self-induce a recession if it wants to reach its target inflation rate, a BMO strategist said. Ian Lyngen told Bloomberg TV that the Fed might find its current monetary policy to not be restrictive enough. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe latest inflation report not only sent bond yields soaring and stocks plunging, it may also have put the US back on track for a recession, one economist told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

Persons: Ian Lyngen, — Organizations: BMO, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Business

☆ Welcome to the 'tepid twenties,' a decade of sluggish growth and rising debt, IMF chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A decade of low growth and high debt is coming, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said in a Thursday speech. Medium-term global growth will reach just above 3% as productivity tumbles, the IMF estimates. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe world could soon sink into an era of depressed growth and spiraling debt, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in a speech delivered at an Atlantic Council event. "Without a course correction, we are indeed heading for 'the Tepid Twenties' — a sluggish and disappointing decade," she said Thursday.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, — Organizations: IMF, Service, Atlantic, Business

☆ Sanctions are squeezing Russia, turning up its dependence on China and 'rogue' states, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewWestern sanctions are straining Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine, even if its war economy appears resilient and its output seems largely unfazed, a think tank expert said. Related storiesAlready, this order has put off lenders in India, China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates from working with Russia, Blank said. Individual sanctions have also targeted vessels carrying Russian crude above the Western $60-barrel price cap, reducing the Kremlin's ability to trade. With fewer available tankers, freight costs have climbed, and the discount Russia has offered on its oil has eroded. That's caused India to increasingly look elsewhere for crude, despite being the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian oil in 2023.

Persons: —, Stephen Blank, it's, Blank Organizations: Service, Center for, Business, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Treasury Department, CEPA, United, United Arab Emirates, West Locations: Ukraine, North Korea, Iran, India, China, Turkey, United Arab, Russia, Austrian, Moscow, Beijing

☆ 'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman details the 4 themes that have him betting on a turbocharged infrastructure boom instead of chasing AI hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read preview2008's housing crash might be long over, but Steve Eisman is not done looking for the next big macro trade. The investor — famous for his subprime mortgage bet, as documented in "The Big Short" — is now eyeing infrastructure as biggest winner of today's conditions. "You take all four of those boxes, and you turbocharge them by the fact that the United States has not had an industrial policy in anyone's lifetime," Eisman said. While Eisman believes in AI and infrastructure, he has no faith in crypto's potential, he said.

Persons: —, Steve Eisman, Eisman, Neuberger Berman —, they've, Eaton, United States — everybody's Organizations: Service, Business, JPMorgan, Apple Locations: United States

☆ China needs a new economic plan that focuses less on exporting and more on domestic growth, 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China will stagnate if it relies on manufacturing and exports to grow, Nouriel Roubini wrote in Project Syndicate. That growth model is outdated and worked in a time when foreign markets were more open to Chinese products. AdvertisementChina can't grow out of its economic problems if it stays focused on manufacturing and exports, says famed "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. "The old Chinese growth model is broken," the perma-bear economist wrote for Project Syndicate, later adding: "China therefore needs a new growth model concentrated on domestic services — rather than goods — and private consumption." Related storiesWhen China's economy was smaller, this form of growth made sense, as its exports were still manageable for foreign markets, Roubini said.

Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Doom, —, Roubini, Xi Jinping, he's, Paul Krugman Organizations: Project Syndicate, Service Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Swelling US debt could tip US markets into crisis as soon as next year, Wharton professor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Market chaos could come next year if the US doesn't adjust its fiscal path, Joao Gomes told CNBC. The US can't afford to extend tax cuts next year, he said. If it doesn't adjust its fiscal trajectory soon, 2025 could be the year when markets start to roil, Wharton professor Joao Gomes warned. "That's something that could definitely happen to us next year," Gomes told CNBC on Thursday. "I think we'll have a serious debate next year about the tax cuts and whether to extend them or not," he said.

Persons: Joao Gomes, Wharton, —, It's, Gomes, Maya MacGuineas, Gomes isn't, Jamie Dimon, Ken Griffin Organizations: CNBC, US, Service, Bank of America, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Trump Administration, White House, Federal, Wall Locations: roil

☆ Don't write off China: Why one economist says the nation is likely to grow at double the rate of the US in coming years
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China will grow at double the US rate in coming years, Nicholas R. Lardy wrote for Foreign Affairs. China's nominal GDP will surpass the US's in a decade as the yuan appreciates, Lardy said. In that case, China's GDP outpaced the US, with each country expanding 5.2% and 2.5%, respectively. That depressed China's yuan, eroding the value of its GDP when measured in dollars. "When real estate is excluded, private investment rose by almost ten percent in 2023. "

Persons: Nicholas R, Lardy, —, it's Organizations: Foreign Affairs, Service, Peterson Institute Locations: China, United States, Washington

☆ The housing shortage is getting no help from aging baby boomers
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

78% of home-owning baby boomers plan to age in their current homes, a Redfin survey found. Financial incentives are keeping boomers put, with current mortgage rates and home prices too high. That's not good news for housing supply, which is already dwindling at historic lows. Politicians should focus on expanding housing stock that meets the needs of older Americans, which could help with housing affordability and availability for all," Fairweather added. Prospective homebuyers could see some inventory relief as mortgage rates continue to gradually fall through this year, bringing back sellers.

Persons: boomers, —, Redfin, It's, millennials, Daryl Fairweather, aren't, Fairweather Organizations: Service

☆ Why the Fed's first rate cut could be delayed until March 2025 if inflation stays stubbornly high
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stubbornly high PCE inflation readings might make it difficult to lower them in June as many expect. BofA still expects three rate cuts this year, but says the next PCE readings will determine this. AdvertisementThat's because comparisons with last year's figures mean that year-over-year core PCE inflation is unlikely to decline further in the second half of 2024. "Base effects for year-over-year core PCE inflation are favorable through May, but unfavorable for six of the last seven months of the year," analysts said in a note. Prints of 30bp or more on the next two core PCE readings would probably take June off the table, particularly if activity holds up," they wrote.

Persons: BofA, —, it's, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ The market sees a less-than-50% chance of a June rate cut after hot factory data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Bond-market expectations of a June rate cut fell below 50% after strong factory data, according to Bloomberg data. ISM manufacturing data showed an expansion on Monday for the first time in 16 months. Inflation is in line with Fed hopes, but creates a "wait and see" situation for rate cuts, a former Fed official said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementBond-market expectations of a June rate cut took a hit on Monday as new factory data pushed odds below 50%, according to Bloomberg data.

Persons: Bond, — Organizations: Bloomberg, Fed, Service, Business

☆ US oil suppliers are getting a boost from Russian sanctions as India looks to buy more from them
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russian imports took a hit as Western sanctions bite down on Moscow's ability to ship crude. That's as Western sanctions on Moscow have cracked New Delhi's appetite for Russian crude, causing India to pivot towards US exports. At the same time, Indian purchases of Russian oil have tumbled, as the US and its allies tightened enforcement of sanctions against Moscow. AdvertisementFor instance, Washington has started individually sanctioning entities that breach a Western price cap on Russian barrels, and has targeted over 50 ships since October. In March, India imported an estimated 33.8 million barrels of Russian crude, compared to 51.1 million in January, Kpler data showed.

Persons: —, It's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Moscow, Energy Information Administration Locations: India, Russia, Moscow, Washington, New Delhi, OPEC, Asia

☆ Homebuyers need to earn 87% more than in pre-COVID years to afford a starter home, Redfin says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US income earners must make $75,849 to afford a starter home, Redfin reported. That's an 87% jump from the how much a buyer needed to earn pre-COVID, in 2020. Affordability is starting to improve, as mortgage rates are slowly sliding this year. In February 2020, a starter home required that a buyer earn $40,465 annually. Higher costs and a sharp upswing in mortgage rates account for the difference, Redfin said.

Persons: Redfin, That's, —, it's Organizations: Service, Business

☆ The inventor of a famed recession indicator says many state-level warning signs are less dire when you factor in immigration
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule has triggered in 20 states. "The increase in unemployment rates stem partly from the strength of the economy the past few years," Sahm wrote. AdvertisementA historically accurate recession indicator is flashing across the country, but immigration trends leave no reason to worry, Claudia Sahm, the signal's founder, wrote in Bloomberg. The so-called Sahm Rule has flashed red in 20 states, she says, and would indicate a recession has arrived. It triggers when the unemployment rate's three-month average climbs 50 points above a 12-month low.

Persons: Sahm, —, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Immigrants, Service, Bloomberg, Business

☆ A Fed rate cut could actually mean bad news for stocks, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A Fed rate cut usually signals something bad happening, Bespoke's Paul Hickey told CNBC. But the stock market rally doesn't really need the Fed to cut rates in order to keep climbing. "Be careful what you wish for," he told CNBC, adding: "They cut rates for a reason, as we've talked about in the past, and they usually don't cut rates because things are going great." Related storiesThat may be hard to hear for investors, as markets have spent months deciphering Fedspeak for clues as to when the first rate cut will happen. "Last week's Fed meeting put the nail in the coffin on a rate cut, and the market had its best week of the year," he said.

Persons: Bespoke's Paul Hickey, —, Paul Hickey, we've, Hickey, it's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ China needs Apple even as it tries to push foreign firms out, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China is unlikely to push Apple out of the country, Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book told CNBC. "In sectors where they think reliance on American firms — software, hardware, anything talked about — is going to become a national security threat, they want American companies out. "In essence Apple needs China and China needs Apple despite all the noise," he said. "With 90% of the supply chain cemented in China Apple will over time move some manufacturing to India, Vietnam, and other regions. However, the vast majority of its iPhone production and suppliers will remain in China and this trip was Apple essentially doubling down on China."

Persons: Shehzad Qazi, Wedbush's Dan Ives, —, Qazi, disinvestment, Dan Ives, Tim Cook, Ives Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Service, Micron, Intel, AMD, Wedbush Securities, China Development, China Apple Locations: China, Beijing, That's, India, Vietnam, Shanghai

☆ Trump risks tanking Truth Social's stock price if he cashes out
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Donald Trump's social media platform Truth Social is set to go public next week. Truth Social, a platform developed by former president Donald Trump, has finally secured approval to merge with its shell company Digital World Acquisition Corp. After all, many DWAC investors don't appear to be trading on fundamentals, especially as Truth Social isn't reputed for high usage or revenue. Social Truth user KookyBar said after the merger, writing in a forum dedicated to DWAC. At a price of $40, the newly formed Truth Social entity would be worth more than $5 billion, with Trump owning a majority of the stock.

Persons: Donald Trump's, —, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Donald Trump Jr, Devin Nunes, KookyBar Organizations: Service, Corp, Trump, SEC Locations: New York

☆ The US is pressuring the biggest Western bank in Russia to cancel a $1.6 billion industrial investment
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAn Austrian bank's plan to repatriate $1.6 billion in assets still stuck in Russia is facing US pushback, on concern that the deal would breach Western sanctions. The Raiffeisen Bank International remains the biggest foreign-owned lender remaining in the country, as efforts to sell or spin off its Russian unit have struggled since Moscow's tightened exit requirements on foreign firms. That's as Deripaska is sanctioned for potential links to the Kremlin, making the transaction a possible breach of Western restrictions. Aside from Raiffeisen, the US has been stepping up pressure on foreign banks that continue to facilitate transactions with Russia.

Persons: —, Oleg Deripaska, Raiffeisen, that's Organizations: Service, Raiffeisen Bank, Business, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Russia, Russian, Vienna, Washington, Austria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

☆ Risky commercial real estate investments are getting squeezed as the market collapses
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Delinquent assets are taking over investment products that bundle risky commercial real estate debt, Bloomberg reported. Issuers are extending maturities and buying back delinquent loans. Between 2019 and 2021, CLO issuance skyrocketed from $19 billion to $45 billion, Bloomberg found. Others are using cash reserves to buy out delinquent loans, purchasing a record $1.3 billion last year, according to JPMorgan estimates cited by the outlet. AdvertisementIssues with CLOs reflect a bigger theme in commercial real estate, as even investment grade projects face debt concerns.

Persons: —, CLOs Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Investment, JPMorgan, Barclays

☆ Bitcoin could soar 266% to $250,000 next year if ETF inflows stay strong, Standard Chartered says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2025, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick predicted. That's as long as spot ETF inflows remain strong, and reserve managers begin buying crypto. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementBitcoin could surge to as high as $250,000 in 2025, propelled by the success of spot ETFs and growing interest from reserve managers, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick forecast in a note on Monday. Such a stellar rise is likely if fund inflows remain as strong as they are, the firm said.

Persons: Geoff Kendrick, That's, —, Bitcoin Organizations: Service, FX, Business

☆ China is on pace to buy a record amount of Russian oil this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's intake of Russian crude is set to reach a record this month, Kpler data cited by Bloomberg shows. The shift is due to tighter enforcement of Western sanctions, that's diminishing the discount on Russian oil. AdvertisementChinese imports of Russian crude are on course to reach record volumes this month, as Beijing takes over diminishing Indian demand. 1.7 million barrels a day are expected to ship into the country, Bloomberg said, citing Kpler data. That same month, Indian imports of Russian crude fell by 420,000 barrels a day.

Persons: —, India —, Wang Yi, it's, That's, Sovcomflot, Bloomberg Organizations: Bloomberg, Sokol, Service, Foreign, Group Locations: Beijing, India, China, Moscow, Russia

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