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☆ American price elasticity stretched to the limit
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The United States may be over the hump on inflation, but consumers aren’t acting like it. Lingering restraint will stretch the power of price elasticity to its limits. Similarly, PepsiCo’s (PEP.O) 14% increase in North American prices of Mountain Dew, Tropicana orange juice and other beverages cost it 4% in quarterly sales. Strong appetites for Oreos and Wheat Thins lifted Mondelez International’s (MDLZ.O) sales 2% in the United States, Canada and Mexico, even as prices climbed 10%. They have climbed 3.5% from a year earlier, surpassing the 3.2% annual increase in the Consumer Price Index.

Persons: Mondelez, Darden, Ricardo Cardenas, Laxman Narasimhan, Marriott, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, of Michigan, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital, Procter & Gamble, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: States, Dew, United States, Canada, Mexico, American

☆ Markets may be on a tear this year, but the economy is under the most pressure since 2008 and could still easily fall into recession, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets have rallied this year, but the US is still facing a significant risk of recession, Capital Economics warned. That's because financial conditions are the tightest they've been since 2008. That's led to the tightest financial conditions since 2008, the firm said, pointing to financial condition indexes, or FCIs, which show financial conditions in US, Europe, Australia, Canada, and Japan nearing Great Recession levels. Capital Economics' broad financial conditions indexes show financial conditions at their tightest since 2008 across most tracked economies. Interest rates on consumer credit have spiked past 8%, which is one of the largest drivers of tight financial conditions, the firm said.

Persons: they've, That's, Simon MacAdam Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Federal Reserve, Capital, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan

☆ Is it time to worry about stagflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

CNN —For the past two years, economists have been worrying about the risks of high inflation rates. But far less attention has been given to inflation’s sibling: stagflation. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and a slowing economy. The current state of stagflation: Last year, then-World Bank President David Malpass warned that stagflation risks were high because of supply chain disruptions stemming from lockdowns in China and bans on Russian oil. What’s happening now: The risk of stagflation varies significantly across different regions of the globe.

Persons: Stagflation, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, ”, Lan Ha, stagflation, Andrew Kenningham, “, That’s, ” Kenningham, ” Ha, Ha, Parija Kavilanz, don’t, Dallin Hatch, Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Matt Egan, It’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, World Bank, Euromonitor, Capital Economics, Bank of England’s, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Trump Locations: Israel, lockdowns, China, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.2% annual rate in July, which was a slight increase over June's 3% reading. Typically, that would be associated with a jump in unemployment as businesses and consumers scale back. Yet the unemployment rate has remained below 4% -- low for the U.S. -- since February 2022, and stood at 3.5% as of last month. Others feel the economy remains slow to adjust to higher interest rates, and that the unemployment rate will ultimately rise before the Fed finishes its inflation fight. The current Fed "has been uniquely successful thus far in lowering inflation while leaving the unemployment rate at its lowest levels in roughly half a century," they wrote, with the potential that policy tightening so far "may bring about further declines in inflation without a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate.

Persons: Bryan Woolston, Pierre, Daniel Sarte, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Mary Daly, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston WASHINGTON, . Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Graphics, North, Capital Economics, Traders, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, North America

☆ Natural gas prices are spiking again. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —Natural gas prices have spiked again this week, just as Europe prepares for the heating season. The price of Dutch natural gas, the European benchmark, has jumped 24% to €40 ($44) per megawatt hour since Tuesday on news of potential industrial action at liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants in Australia. US natural gas prices have climbed 18% so far this month. “As much of the spare LNG supply comes from the US, natural gas prices there have also jumped higher,” he added. The sudden rise in gas prices follows a recent run-up in oil prices, driven by production cuts by major exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Persons: Brad Gandy, Tom Marzec, ”, Russia —, Bill Weatherburn, Brent, Weatherburn, Massimo Di Odoardo, Wood Mackenzie, “, Woodside, — Hilary Whiteman Organizations: London CNN, Offshore Alliance, Chevron, North West, Woodside Energy Group, Facebook, CNN, —, Capital Economics, European Union, Asia —, Reuters Locations: Australia, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Norway, LNG, United States, Qatar, Moscow, Saudi Arabia, Marzec, “, Asia, Asia — Japan, —, Brisbane

☆ Following CPI report, the market has locked in on no more rate hikes from the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The market has its mind made up: July's tame inflation reading means no more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The "patience" reference goes to whether policymakers will be satisfied that inflation will come back to normal without any further rate increases, or if additional tightening is necessary. Following Thursday's release of the consumer price index , which showed a 12-month inflation rate of 3.2%, markets upped their bets that the Fed is staying put. The chance of any additional rate increases also declined, dropping to 27.3% for November and 24.1% for December, as of about 1:30 p.m. Thus, there was some caution from the CPI internals, and a stock market rally cooled Thursday afternoon as Wall Street digested the report.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams, Rick Rieder, Tom Lee, Bradley Saunders Organizations: Federal, LPL, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, Market Committee, Capital Economics Locations: BlackRock

☆ Global trade: China's economy suffers new blow as exports drop 14% in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s exports suffered their biggest drop in more than three years in July as global demand slowed, adding further pressure on Beijing to find ways to reinvigorate the world’s second largest economy. For the first seven months of the year, China’s exports decreased 5% from a year earlier. But since last October, those shipments have shrunk as surging inflation and rising interest rates dampen global demand. Weakening exports deal a fresh blow to the Chinese economy, which lost momentum recently after a strong start to the year. The weak trade figures and lower yuan fixing triggered a drop in the Chinese currency in foreign exchange markets.

Persons: ”, Justin Sullivan, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Capital Economics, Port, Getty, Exports, Analysts, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, “ Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, United States, Port of Oakland, Oakland , California, China

"It's probably going to be a rough July and a rough summer," she said in a phone interview. Canada's trade deficit with countries other than the United States, its biggest trading partner, widened to an all-time high as month-over-month exports declined 5.5%, while imports were down marginally. The overall trade deficit matched the C$3.73 billion shortfall in October 2020. The Canadian dollar traded slightly higher at C$1.3477 to the U.S. dollar, or 74.20 U.S. cents, up from C$1.3498 to the U.S. dollar, or 74.09 U.S. cents. By volume, imports were up 0.9%.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Statscan, Meena Aier, It's, Olivia Cross, Cross, Ismail Shakil, David Ljunggren, Bernadette Baum, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Port, REUTERS, OTTAWA, Statistics, Export Development, Capital Economics, Canadian, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Port of Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Statistics Canada, United States, of Nova Scotia, Ottawa

☆ Oil and food prices are rising, and so are wages. Inflation isn’t beaten yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Oil and food prices have jumped in recent weeks, and wages are still growing strongly in some of the world’s biggest economies. The UN global Food Price Index rose in July, notching only the second monthly increase in a year of steady declines. Oil supply cutsGlobal oil prices have shot up in recent weeks. The International Energy Agency has forecast that global oil demand will rise to a record 102 million barrels this year. Rising oil prices have spurred a jump in US gasoline prices, which hit an average of $3.82 a gallon Tuesday.

Persons: ” Randall Kroszner, “, Price, Chris Ratcliffe, Richard Bronze, ”, —, unraveled, ” Kroszner, — “, Michelle Bowman Organizations: London CNN, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve System, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, CNN, UN, Bloomberg, Getty, West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, OPEC, Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Capital Economics, “ Labor, Bank Locations: Ukraine, United States, United Kingdom, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Moscow

☆ India rate panel to dial up hawkishness even as it holds policy steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. A July 13-31 Reuters poll of 75 economists showed the central bank was expected to keep its repo rate unchanged at 6.50% at its Aug. 10 policy meeting. The rise in food prices, however, has been sharper than expected this year and is seen lasting longer. The MPC at its June policy meeting also reiterated its intent of nudging inflation towards its medium-term target of 4% and not just holding it below 6%. "It will also possibly emphasise a larger need to be watchful of the second-round effects of high food prices and inflation expectations."

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Shah, Pankaj Pathak, Swati Bhat, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, REUTERS, MPC, Capital Economics, DBS Bank, DBS, ANZ, U.S, Fed, AMC, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, MUMBAI

☆ UK house prices fall for 4th month but market shows resilience - Halifax
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But the decline in house prices has so far been small compared with the surge in valuations during the COVID pandemic. Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said house prices were likely to continue falling into next year, echoing previous comments by the lender. A Reuters poll of analysts published in early June pointed to a 3% fall in house prices in 2023 before flat-lining in 2024. This should leave house prices 10.5% below their peak on the Nationwide measure." Nationwide, another mortgage lender, said last week its index of house prices fell by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to July.

Persons: Susannah Ireland, Kim Kinnaird, Kinnaird, Imogen Pattison, William Schomberg, Kate Holton, Bernadette Baum Organizations: City of, REUTERS, Halifax, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, South London, Britain, Halifax

☆ Germany risks falling back into recession as car industry sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —Industrial production in Europe’s biggest economy fell 1.5% in June compared with May, driven by a 3.5% drop in Germany’s vast automotive sector. The decline in German industrial output, much steeper than forecast by economists, raises the risk that the manufacturing heavyweight will contract again later this year, potentially falling back into recession. The construction sector, where output shrank by 2.8%, also had a negative impact on overall industrial production, the country’s statistics office said Monday. “German industry remains in rough waters,” Salomon Fiedler, economist at Berenberg, said in a note Monday, noting last year’s energy price shock and weakness in US and Chinese demand, among other factors. Berenberg expects Germany to fall back into “a mild recession” in the second half of this year, Fiedler added.

Persons: “, ” Franziska Palmas, Jörg Krämer, Hildegard Müller, ” Salomon Fiedler, Fiedler, — Mark Thompson, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Capital Economics, Auto, German Automotive Industry Association, Volkswagen Locations: Germany, Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, “

☆ Canada unexpectedly sheds jobs in July, central bank seen pausing hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money markets see a 28% chance of a rate hike in September, down slightly from 32% before the data. Money markets see a 60% chance of another rate hike by the end of the year, down from 80% before the data. "I think their (the Bank's) conclusion from this would be that it's probably not a bad idea to pause on the rate hike front," he said by phone. While headline figures indicated some slowness, the average hourly wage for permanent employees - a figure the Bank of Canada watches closely - rose 5.0% from July 2022. "The softer labor market data support our view that the Bank is unlikely to follow through with current market pricing by raising rates further," he said.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Stephen Brown, Statscan, David Ljunggren, Dale Smith, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Reuters, Statistics, The, BMO Capital Markets, U.S ., Desjardins, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. Investors in China's stock markets, however, were clearly underwhelmed, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) dropped roughly 2% over the week, while the mainland's benchmark CSI 300 index (.CSI) eked out a 0.7% gain. But investors are becoming frustrated by the time the NDRC is taking to flesh out stimulus policies, or order measures like a cut in stamp duty - that could help China's ailing property sector, and please investors in stocks and bonds. Even in a best-case scenario, growth over the second half of this year looks set to be modest." Reporting by Joe Cash and Albee Zhang in Beijing; Editing by Himani Sarkar & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, HSI, flexibly, Zou Lan, Xu Tianchen, Joe Cash, Albee Zhang, Himani Sarkar, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, National Development, Reform Commission, Communist Party's, UBS, Council, Economist Intelligence Unit, Weibo, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING

European shares (.STOXX) slipped 1.1% after falling on Wednesday to two-week lows as rating agency Fitch cut the U.S. government's credit rating. UK shares (.FTSE) fell 1.3%, with the Bank of England (BoE) expected to raise interest rates later in the day. Pressuring stocks were a climb in long-term U.S. Treasury yields after stronger-than-expected private employment data and the announced refunding of the U.S. government's maturing debt. U.S. 10-year yields hit a new nine-month peak of 4.17%, while 30-year yields rose to a fresh nine-month top. The risk, investors said, was that a repeat of June's surprise half-point increase could fuel bets that major central banks are not done tightening yet.

Persons: Issei Kato, Fitch, BoE, Jonathan Petersen, Morgan Stanley, Sterling, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Apple, LONDON, Bank of England, Nasdaq, Treasury, U.S, Capital Economics, APPLE, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, SYDNEY, Pacific, China, London, Sydney

☆ Office loans just hit a 5% delinquency rate – a 20-month high – as WFH and rate rises pile more pressure on commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

It's the costliest time to borrow money as interest rates now stand at 5.5%. Commercial real estate has been particularly damaged by the Fed's rate-hiking campaign. Defaults on commercial real estate loans have hit their highest levels since December 2021. The combination of workers unwilling to return to the office, coupled with the highest interest rates in 22 years, has spelled misery for the sector over the last 18 months. Commercial real estate has been particularly troubled by the Fed's aggressive hiking campaign, which has pushed up interest rates sharply since spring 2022.

Persons: Trepp, Kiran Raichura, we've, it's Organizations: Service, Capital Economics Locations: Wall, Silicon, delinquencies

☆ Brazil central bank kicks off rate cuts more aggressively than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Peter Frontini | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's rate-setting committee Copom cut its Selic policy rate to 13.25%, as just 10 of 46 economists surveyed by Reuters had anticipated. Although Wednesday's policy decision was closely divided, Copom's policy statement signaled a shared outlook to keep up the pace of rate cuts in coming months. Wednesday's rate decision reflected a split among board members, with five votes in favor of the 50-basis-point cut and four votes for a more modest 25-basis-point cut. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had called for a rate cut of 50 basis points earlier on Wednesday. Brazil's inflation target is 3% for both years.

Persons: we'd, William Jackson, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Roberto Campos Neto, Lula, Campos Neto, Fernando Haddad, Haddad, Copom, Peter Frontini, Marcela Ayres, Brad Haynes, Diane Craft Organizations: SAO PAULO, Reuters, Capital Economic, Finance, Fitch, Carolina, Thomson Locations: Brazil

☆ Fitch's downgrade of U.S. debt unlikely to have much economic impact — for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While financial markets on Wednesday took a break from their monster rally of 2023, economists largely expect the impact on the economy to be minimal. Some even questioned the timing of Fitch's action, saying it seems to come after the biggest scare to whether the U.S. would meet its debt obligations has passed. Overall, this announcement is much more likely to be dismissed than have a lasting disruptive impact on the US #economy and #markets." It also cited the battles that warring congressional factions have had over the debt ceiling as well as budget standoffs. Goldman also said it does not see a meaningful impact on holders of Treasurys or other government-sponsored or municipal debt.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, Fitch, Veronique de Rugy, de Rugy, that's, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, There's Organizations: Poor's, Fitch, Allianz, Twitter, AAA, Mercatus, George Mason University, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Congressional, Moody's, Service Locations: U.S

☆ Asia's factories face weak demand, signaling growth challenges ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Six out of the nine private surveys released Tuesday showed that manufacturing activity in Asia's major producers again contracted in July. In addition to China, readings for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam also signaled contraction in manufacturing activity. "The data reaffirm our view that external demand will constitute a headwind to growth in the second half of 2023." PMI manufacturing surveys are leading indicators of economic activity. A reading above 50 points to an expansion in activity, while a reading below that level suggests a contraction.

Persons: PMIs, Shivaan Tandon Organizations: Factories, Emerging, Capital Economics, PMI Locations: East China's Shandong province, Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Emerging Asia

☆ China is still waiting for a 'big bang' economic fix as Beijing grapples with more bad news
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's manufacturing sector contracted in July, multiple indexes showed. Policymakers have hinted at an economic boost – but are yet to roll out a stimulus package. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The country's top decision-making body acknowledged that the economy faced "new difficulties and challenges" last week – and pledged to roll out a stimulus package "with precision and force". The Swiss bank predicted policymakers would hint at but fall short of bringing in the "big bang" stimulus package needed to revive growth.

Persons: –, Beijing's, Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, P Global Manufacturing, UBS, Economics Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, Swiss, China

☆ Asia's factory activity shrinks as China's slump, global slowdown weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam saw manufacturing activity contract in July, the surveys showed, highlighting the strain sluggish Chinese demand is inflicting on the region. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July from 50.5 in June, missing analysts' forecasts of 50.3 and marking the first decline in activity since April. "Falling new orders, bleak employment prospects and high inventory levels point to subdued factory activity in the coming months." Japan's final au Jibun Bank PMI fell to 49.6 in July, down from 49.8 in June, due to weak domestic and overseas demand. In India, growth in manufacturing activity slowed for a second month, but the pace of expansion remained healthy and beat expectations.

Persons: forestalling, PMIs, Shivaan Tandon, Leika Kihara, Sonali Paul Organizations: PMI, TOKYO, P Global, Emerging, Capital Economics, Jibun, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, Asia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Emerging Asia, India

Euro zone inflation fell in July, and new growth figures showed economic activity picking up in the second quarter of this year — but economists still fear a recession could be in the cards. Headline inflation in the euro area was 5.3% in July, according to preliminary data released Monday, lower than the 5.5% registered in June. The euro area has been battling high inflation for the past year, leading the ECB to undergo a full year of consecutive rate hikes in an effort to bring prices down. Initially, much of the price pressures in the euro area were coming from high energy costs, but in recent months food prices have contributed the most. This month, food, alcohol and tobacco once again drove inflation — prices rose by 10.8% in July, in a hike that was nevertheless lower than in previous months.

Persons: Andrew Kenningham Organizations: Central, Capital Economics, ECB Locations: Europe

BEIJING, July 31 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity fell for a fourth straight month in July while the services and construction sectors teetered on the brink of contraction, official surveys showed on Monday, threatening growth prospects for the third quarter. Construction sector activity for July was its weakest since COVID-19-related workplace disruptions dissipated around February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, dropped to 51.5 from June's 53.2. "Meanwhile, we're seeing improvements in inventory levels, suggesting that with destocking nearing its end, China's manufacturing sector bottomed out in the second quarter," he added. "Unless concrete support is rolled out soon, the recent downturn in demand risks becoming self-reinforcing."

Persons: Xu Tianchen, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes, Edmund Klamann Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party, PMI, Economist Intelligence Unit, destocking, China, State, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ China PMI: factory sector contracts for fourth straight month, raising urgency for more stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —China is preparing to announce new stimulus for its stumbling economy after the vast factory sector contracted for a fourth straight month, and a gauge of activity in its services sector slipped to a seven month low. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures activity level in the manufacturing sector, came in at 49.3 in July, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That result was slightly up compared with 49 in June but the index has nonetheless contracted each month since April. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at activities in the services and construction industries, fell to 51.5 from 53.2 in June. “China’s official PMI data provides little encouragement that the economy is turning the corner,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING Group.

Persons: Stringer, “, ”, Robert Carnell, Xi Jinping, Carnell Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI, Getty, ING Group, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, State, Information, Ministry of Commerce, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Hangzhou, China's, Zhejiang, AFP, Asia, Pacific

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% on a quarterly basis between April and June and was up 0.6% year-on-year, national statistics bureau ISTAT said. ISTAT gave no numerical sector breakdown of its preliminary second-quarter GDP estimate, but said industry and agriculture output decreased whereas services grew marginally. The 0.3% contraction left Italy with so-called "carryover" growth of 0.8% this year, assuming GDP would be flat in the remaining two quarters. "Italy is an advanced industrial country and the weakness in industry is much more important than the tourism sector for the economy's health," said Lorenzo Codogno, head of LC Macro Advisors and former chief economist at Italy's Treasury. ISTAT also said annual inflation slowed to 6.4% in July from 6.7% in June, on a EU-harmonised consumer prices.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Franziska Palmas, Intesa, Lorenzo Codogno, Alvise Armellini, Elvira Pollina, Sharon Singleton, Alistair Bell Organizations: Gross, Reuters, Capital Economics, ISTAT, LC Macro Advisors, Italy's Treasury, Thomson Locations: ROME, Italy, Rome, Milan

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