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With inflation finally beginning to cool of late, experts expect the Federal Reserve to begin trimming its benchmark interest rate. For savers, it means earning less on interest-paying vehicles such as bonds, cash accounts and certificates of deposit. Versions of all three vehicles currently offer guaranteed interest rates north of 5%. Why it makes sense to lock in higher rates nowFor years, when interest rates were near zero, it was hard to earn practically anything on a short-term bond or cash account. "I do think that leads to interest rate cuts in the U.S. [in the second half of 2024].
Persons: It's, Amy Arnott, we've, Arnott, Christopher R, Jackson, You've, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Morningstar Research Services, Treasury, UBS Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Shares in automaker Porsche fell on Tuesday after the company cut its 2024 outlook, saying various suppliers were affected by a shortage of special aluminium alloys. Holding company Porsche SE was last down over 3%. Porsche said that a series of its suppliers were impacted by a "significant supply shortage with regard to special aluminium alloys." The shortage is linked to flooding in a production facility of a key European aluminium supplier, Porsche explained. "Despite immediate countermeasures, it is becoming apparent that the impending supply shortage will lead to impairments in production," Porsche said.
Persons: Porsche Organizations: Volkswagen, Porsche, UBS Locations: Stuttgart, Swiss, Zrich, Switzerland, London
Oil prices drop to lowest levels in more than a month
  + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Crude oil futures on Tuesday dropped to the lowest level in more than a month, as the market has largely ignored recent tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Houthi militants in Yemen. Israel responded with airstrikes against Houthi targets near the Al Hudaydah Port in Yemen over the weekend, hitting oil facilities. "Oil is starting to feel as if it is heading for the doldrums," John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, told clients in a note. Wildfires in Alberta, however, poses a potential risk to crude supplies in Canada though production has remained solid so far, according to Goldman. The worst of the wildfire season likely lies ahead, with a third of the wildfires in Alberta burning out of control, threatening 400,000 barrels per day in production, according to the investment bank.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Evans, Goldman Organizations: UBS Locations: Stanton , Texas, Israel, Yemen, Tel Aviv, Al Hudaydah Port, Alberta, Canada
UBS said a major rotation from cash and bonds into stocks could happen later this year. UBS' Jason Draho reiterated his bull case for the S&P 500 to rise 17% into year-end. AdvertisementThe cash-to-stocks trade is the more durable rotation investors should be watching, UBS said. "We still recommend that investors position for lower rates, seek quality growth stocks, and seize the AI opportunity," Draho said. There will be a rotation trade in that scenario, but from cash and bonds into stocks," Draho said.
Persons: Jason Draho, , there's, Draho, it's Organizations: UBS, Service, Federal Reserve
Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race is causing market uncertainty. Analysts now expect more market volatility after Biden pulled out of the race. AdvertisementUS President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential election is throwing fresh uncertainty into the markets for a second straight week. Investors were already trying to position themselves for the so-called "Trump trade" following the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13. Markets at large were relatively calm following Biden's withdrawal after the Trump trade gripped sentiment last week.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Trump, Biden, , Donald Trump, Mark Haefele, Jim Reid, Kyle Rodda, Harris, Chris Weston, Pepperstone, Kamala Harris, Biden's, Haefele Organizations: Service, Trump, Republican, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Democrats, Democratic Party, Democratic, UBS
None of that sounds like it should bode very well for stocks, but the S&P 500, a measure of the broad U.S. stock market, has returned about 16% so far in 2024. This has been even the bull's dream of a year," says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. Indeed, the likes of Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon.com and Alphabet have all enjoyed returns over the past year that have vastly outgained the broad market. All 11 S&P 500 sectors sport positive returns year-to-date, with six featuring double-digit returns. That could "loosen up the gears" in what has been a stubborn housing market and should encourage business investment — both good signs for the broader market, he says.
Persons: bode, Ryan Detrick, You've, Christopher R, Jackson, you've, Detrick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Carson Group, Microsoft, Nvidia, UBS Wealth Management Locations: U.S
If you haven't been paying attention to tobacco companies, you might not recognize the new landscape. The alternatives also include heated tobacco and nicotine vapor products, although with the latter, tobacco companies face big competition from vaping companies and the proliferation of illicit vapes. PM 1Y mountain Philip Morris' one-year performance Countries around the globe have been working for years to reduce tobacco use. There is no way back," Philip Morris Chief Financial Officer Emmanuel Babeau said at a Deutsche Bank conference in June. Most of that came from companies in China, with tobacco companies only taking about 15% share, the bank said.
Persons: Philip Morris, , Brett Cooper, I'm, Philip, Emmanuel Babeau, Owen Bennett, Cooper, Altria, vapes —, Faham Baig, Dan Ahrens, Ahrens, Edge's Cooper, Jefferies, Bennett, Murray Garnick Organizations: Philip Morris International, Reynolds American, British, Tobacco, Big Tobacco, World Health, Philip Morris, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies, Philip Morris USA, Centers for Disease Control, Drug Administration, U.S, Supreme, FDA, UBS, WHO, Brands, BAT Locations: Colorado, China, rey, Japan, Iquos, U.S, Kentucky, Marlboro, U.S ., London, RRPs
Buffett believes buybacks are beneficial to shareholders for one simple reason: You don't need to spend a dime to increase your percentage of shares held. "Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns," Buffett said in his 2021 annual letter. The 93-year-old legendary investor believes that it would be "value-destroying" if he overpaid for Berkshire shares. "If you're repurchasing shares above a rationally calculated intrinsic value, you are harming your shareholders, just as if you issue shares beneath that figure, you are harming your shareholders," Buffett once said in 1996. The Wall Street firm projected that Berkshire repurchased almost $2.5 billion worth of stock in the second quarter.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Greggory, Buffett Organizations: Morningstar, Oracle, Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway, UBS, Street, Berkshire repurchased Locations: Greggory Warren, Berkshire, Omaha, repurchases
Some of the companies reporting quarterly results next week are more likely to see their stocks get a post-earnings bump. Quarterly earnings so far have been positive. FactSet data showed that as of Thursday, 80% of the 61 companies in the S & P 500 that had already reported topped analyst earnings estimates. Analysts have revised their earnings estimates upwards by 25% and 64%, respectively, in the past three and six months. Analyst Jay Sole said he expects the Hoka brand has maintained "robust revenue momentum," which should give Deckers a good chance of beating earnings estimates and raising its forecast.
Persons: FactSet, Wamsi Mohan, Jay Sole, , Fred Imbert Organizations: Dow Jones, CNBC, Wall Street, JPMorgan, Royal, Seagate Technology, Bank of America, UBS Locations: Royal Caribbean
UBS increased its S&P 500 year-end price target to 5,900, marking the fourth increase from the bank this year. It added that the S&P 500 could surge 17% to 6,500 by year-end in a bull-case scenario. AdvertisementUBS is once again raising its year-end price target for the S&P 500. UBS initially had a year-end price target of 4,850. Those earnings and price target estimates would represent a historically high price-to-earnings multiple for the S&P 500, but it's warranted, according to Lefkowitz.
Persons: , David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz materializes Organizations: UBS, Service
This week, the benchmark Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) are down 6.2% and 4.6%, respectively. Residential solar stocks, including Enphase , Sunnova , Sunrun , SolarEdge and SunPower , would face a "severe impact" if Republicans successfully weaken or entirely repeal the IRA, according to Piper. The stock in the clean energy space with the least exposure to election risks is GE Vernova , according to a July slide deck from JPMorgan on clean energy. As a domestic manufacturer, First Solar potentially stands to benefit if the U.S. trade war with China intensifies under a Trump administration, according to Kallo. Though total IRA repeal may be unlikely, solar and clean energy stocks will "continue to be volatile until (and even after) the election due to headline risk," Kallo said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Biden, Piper Sandler, Wolfe, Piper, Enphase, SolarEdge, SunPower, Trump, Baird, Ben Kallo, Kallo Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic Party, Trump, Senate, Clean Energy, U.S, White House, Congress, Wolfe Research, Tax, Technologies, Republicans, GE Vernova, JPMorgan, GE, GOP, UBS, CNBC, Republican Locations: U.S, Ohio , Alabama, Louisiana, China
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe slowdown in consumer spending is spreading upward, says UBS' Erika NajarianErika Najarian, UBS head of U.S. banks and consumer finance equity research, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down American Express' quarterly earnings results.
Persons: Erika Najarian Erika Najarian Organizations: UBS, Express
Analyst Mauricio Serna also raised his price target to $20 from $13, indicating 57.6% upside potential from where shares closed on Thursday. Barclays also lowered its price target to $47 from $55, indicating 11.4% downside from Thursday's close. Analyst Benjamin Swinburne has a $780 price target on shares, indicating shares could rise 20% from Thursday's close. Cahall raised his price target to $758 from $726, suggesting nearly 18% upside potential from the stock's close price on Thursday. His new price target of $190, up from $107, implies upside of 20% from Thursday's close.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mauricio Serna, Serna, — Hakyung Kim, Barclays downgrades Molson Coors, Lauren Lieberman, BUD YTD, Hakyung Kim, Benjamin Swinburne, Swinburne, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, Wells, Steven Cahall, Cahall, Arm Holdings Morgan Stanley, Lee Simpson, Simpson, GenAI, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Netflix, Arm Holdings, UBS, Barclays downgrades, Barclays, bearish, Molson Coors, NFLX's, Holdings, ARM Locations: Serna, Thursday's, Wells Fargo
Here are Friday's biggest calls on Wall Street: UBS upgrades Accenture to buy from neutral UBS said the IT services company has AI optionality. UBS upgrades Wolverine World Wide to buy from neutral UBS said it sees sales growth and margin upside for the footwear manufacturer. JPMorgan reiterates Netflix as overweight JPMorgan said it's sticking with its overweight on Netflix following Thursday's earnings report. Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy Bank of America said it's sticking with its buy rating following Amazon's Prime Day. UBS upgrades Ameren to buy from neutral UBS upgraded the electric services company and said regulatory risks are "overly discounted."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer, William Blair, it's, Needham, Coinbase, Wedbush, it's bullish, Barclays downgrades Molson Coors, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, Evercore, JPMorgan, Buck, Melius Organizations: UBS, Accenture, JPMorgan, Netflix, Revenue, Bank of America, 3Q, Nvidia, Meta, NASDAQ, Trump, Vance, Big Tech, Choice, Barclays downgrades, Barclays, TAP, Apple, Services, Broadcom, Broadcom's, Consumer, Hasbro Locations: China, Coinbase
Read previewAs we near the November elections, investors are increasingly focused on what a Donald Trump win would mean for global markets and economies. The charts below show how stock sectors moved in the 24 hours after the debate and how a Trump administration might impact sectors with varying regulatory burdens. If Trump wins, investors will need to cut through the noise and at least understand how he might impact different parts of the economy. Where monetary policy is concerned, leading economist Christophe Barraud believes a Trump administration could pressure the Federal Reserve to be very accommodative on rates, in other words, steeper or sooner cuts. It expects a Trump Administration to allow LNG export permits after the Biden Administration attempted to halt them.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Trump, Solita, Samantha Lamas, Goldman, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg Businessweek Trump, Morgan Stanely, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Trump Media, Technology, UBS, Americas Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Korea, Asia Pacific's, Republican, Trump Administration, Biden Locations: Predictit, Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Asia, Goldman Sachs, Washington
New Delhi, India – February 01: Finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, outside Finance Ministry on the Budget Day, with other members of Finance Ministry in New Delhi on February 01, 2024. (Photo by Hardik Chhabra/ The India Today Group via Getty Images)This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. There are high expectations for a "populist" budget since the recent general election results delivered a slimmer than expected win for Modi. The demands from the various members of the fragile alliance could mean the government opens the taps on welfare spending. Bank of America analysts, who are also open to the idea that the deficit may fall, believe it is "refreshing" to see a finance minister "under-promise, over-deliver."
Persons: Nirmala Sitharaman, Hardik Chhabra, Narendra Modi's, Premal Kamdar, Modi, Goldman Sachs, Santanu Sengupta, Sengupta, It's, Goldman, Staples, Adity Suresh, Aastha Gudwani Organizations: Finance, Finance Ministry, India Today, Getty, BJP, Modi, UBS Wealth Management, Bank of America, Reserve Bank of India, UBS, Kamdar, Columbia India Consumer ETF, Hindustan Unilever, Unilever, " Bank of America's, Central Public Sector Enterprises Locations: Delhi, India, New Delhi, Bihar, Hindustan, " Bank of America's India
Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." China's exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year. Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year. UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China's economy this year.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Artyom Ivanov, Goldman Sachs, Trump, JD Vance, Hui Shan, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Vance, Biden, Mike Pence wouldn't, MAGA, Lin Jian, Goldman's Shan, Shan, Tao Wang Organizations: TASS, Getty, BEIJING, U.S, European, Citi, Fox News, Trump, Capitol, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNBC, UBS Investment Bank, UBS Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, European Union, Asia, Ukraine
Nvidia's rise came after TSMC said on Thursday that demand remains high and supply remains constrained for high-end AI chips, which TSMC manufactures for Nvidia. Today, the demand is so high I had to work very hard to meet customer demand," Wei told analysts. On Wednesday, the semiconductor sector had its worst day since 2020, with big drops from AMD , Arm , Broadcom and Qualcomm alongside Nvidia. A Chinese invasion would throw Nvidia's chip supply into question. Nvidia stock is up more than 150% so far in 2024.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Donald Trump, TSMC, Wei, C.C, Laura Chen, chipmakers, Biden Organizations: Nvidia, SAP Center, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Citi, Micro, Intel, OpenAI, Bloomberg, UBS Locations: San Jose , California, Taiwan, Arizona, China, Dutch
Read previewBarely a week after the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump, investors are already moving on from the "Trump trade." The "Trump trade" refers to investor strategies that reflect the market consequences of a second Trump presidency. Schumacher said the "Trump trade" has run its course and is "about done for now." Focus on Fed interest rate decisionTo be sure, a second Trump presidency — including his administration's trade and tariff policies — would have important implications for the macroeconomy and markets, say most analysts. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank would cut "in the not-too-distant future."
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Michael Schumacher, Schumacher, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Fed, Swiss, UBS Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, Japan
Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America said it's sticking with its buy rating on Nvidia and that investors should "focus on fundamentals." "We are initiating on Frontier with a Buy rating and $33 PT." BMO upgrades Allstate to outperform from market perform BMO said it sees growth potential for the insurance company. " Morgan Stanley reiterates Taiwan Semiconductor as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating following the company's earnings report. " "We initiate coverage of Impinj with an Overweight rating and $205 price target."
Persons: Wolfe, Mizuho, it's, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Baird, Morgan Stanley, Wells, TD Cowen, Redburn, William Blair, , Roth MKM, Roth, TSMC, JPMorgan, Chipotle, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor Organizations: Exxon, ExxonMobil, Bank of America, Nvidia, Apple, UBS, Frontier, Mizuho, Citi, Vans, BMO, Allstate, Deutsche, Meta, Paris, Palo Alto Networks, Palo, AMC, 3Q, Taiwan Semiconductor, JPMorgan, CMG Locations: Palo Alto
Next week marks the second full week of the season, with key names such as Alphabet , Amazon and Tesla set to report. Here's the list: Chipotle is one of the names that made the list. The stock has beaten consensus estimates nearly eight out of 10 times and rallied an average of 1.8% on earnings day. The firm sees Chipotle as being "well positioned" for both traffic momentum and sales outperformance through the rest of the year. As a result, the firm expects Deckers' first-quarter results for fiscal 2025 next week to likely be a "fairly modest raise."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Dennis Geiger, BofA, Brad Sills, Tom Nikic, Wedbush Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC Pro, UBS, Securities
Turkey came out miles ahead of the rest of the world in an annual global wealth ranking — in a result that may come as surprising, given the country's high levels of inflation. The next-highest countries in terms of average wealth growth per adult were Russia and Qatar with nearly 20% and South Africa with just over 16%. But for Turks who own assets like homes, wealth has grown, as inflation pushes up the costs of those holdings. In a call with journalists, some of the report's authors broke down the relationship between inflation and wealth rises in Turkey. The report also noted the "currency effect", which is what changes wealth growth the most — local currency growth figures for wealth are often significantly different from those in dollar terms.
Persons: Türkiye, Samuel Adams, Adams Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, CNBC Locations: Turkey, Swiss, Russia, Qatar, South Africa, U.S, London, Japan
Read previewMost developed countries are set to gain more wealthy people in the next five years — with two big outliers. Some countries, like Taiwan, will gain as many as 50% more millionaires during that time. But the United Kingdom and the Netherlands make "notable exceptions" on this list, per UBS, because both are forecasted to lose millionaires. The UK's three million millionaires put it third among countries with the highest number of millionaires last year, as measured in US dollars, per UBS. The loss continues a trend: The UK lost 16,500 millionaires between 2017 and 2023, per immigration consultancy Henley & Partners.
Persons: , Paul Donovan, Donovan, Andrew Amoils, Amoils Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Henley & Partners, Russia, BI, Henley, Partners Locations: Taiwan, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Paris, Dubai, Sydney, Italy, Spain, Europe
At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.
Persons: , Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal
Elevance expects adjusted earnings of at least $37.20 for 2024, while analysts polled by FactSet called for $37.28 per share. Second-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue came in slightly ahead of estimates. Omnicom — Shares of the corporate communications company fell 8% despite beating revenue expectations for the second quarter. Omnicom posted adjusted earnings of $1.95 per share, which came out in line with analyst forecasts polled by FactSet. Johnson & Johnson reported adjusted earnings of $2.82 per share on $24.45 billion in revenue.
Persons: Biden, ASML, Elevance, FactSet, Charles Schwab —, Cowen, Charles Schwab's, Omnicom, Datadog, Jefferies, Johnson, Johnson —, LSEG, , Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin, Lisa Kailai Han, Michelle Fox Organizations: Bloomberg News, Biden Administration, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, VanEck Semiconductor, Qualcomm, HSBC, Hunt Transport Services, Revenue, FactSet, Reuters, UnitedHealth, Johnson, . U.S, Bancorp, U.S . Bancorp, Corporation, UBS Locations: China, ., V.F
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