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☆ Analysis: Russian sanctions shift oil price-making power to Asia from Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Western Sanctions have led Russia to sell more than twice as much crude to Asia in the year to January, according to Kpler data. Iran, under U.S. sanctions, has boosted exports to the highest in three years on some estimates, with China the biggest buyer. Hardeep Singh Puri, India's oil minister, said in early February the country will keep buying from Russia if prices "continue to be good". EUROPE LOSES SUPPLY SOURCEIndia was among those to have complained about the Asian premium they paid to the big exporters. "These normal sorts of patterns of Asian premium or discount don't really apply," he said.

One of the government officials directly involved in the matter said New Delhi is "not comfortable" with foreign trade settled in yuan but said settlement in "dirham is okay." The second official said that India cannot allow settlement in yuan till the relations between the two countries improve. The five officials did not say whether there were also economic reasons behind India's reluctance to accept yuan settlement. Two banking officials, aware of the matter, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not keen on foreign trade settlement in yuan, and confirmed that the government has discouraged them from using the currency. They also said Russia was keen on yuan settlement as it helps them in purchases of goods from China.

However, exports of both fuels may drop in March with Refinitiv forecasting diesel shipments of just 120,000 bpd, which would be a nine-month low. Gasoline exports are also likely to slide in March, with Refinitiv estimating shipments at around 82,000 bpd. Improving domestic demand, planned refinery maintenance and lower profit margins in regional product margins are the main reasons that China's exports of diesel and gasoline are expected to drop sharply this month. China diesel exports vs Singapore gasoil crackTIGHTER MARKET? India's diesel exports were 470,000 bpd in February, the most since December 2021, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler, while its gasoline shipments were about 314,000 bpd, the most since April last year.

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Tesla, Target, Goldman Sachs, Meta, FedEx & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

Bank of America reiterates Goldman Sachs as buy Bank of America said the investment bank is "best-in-class." Bank of America reiterates Taiwan Semiconductor as buy Bank of America said the semiconductor company has "strong AI potential." Evercore ISI reiterates Meta as a top pick Evercore named Meta a top pick, noting it still likes the company's business model. " Evercore ISI reiterates Meta as a top pickEvercore named Meta a top pick, noting it still likes the company's business model. Oppenheimer reiterates Meta as outperformOppenheimer said it's standing by its outperform rating on Meta.

India's oil trade, in response to the turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting. MTS had facilitated some Indian oil non-dollar payments, the trade sources said. An Indian refining source said most Russian banks have faced sanctions since the war but Indian customers and Russian suppliers are determined to keep trading Russian oil. "As it is, the government is not asking us to stop buying Russian oil, so we are hopeful that an alternative payment mechanism will be found in case the current system is blocked." Similarly, many banks from Russia have opened accounts with Indian banks to facilitate trade.

☆ China's trade with Russia surges at double-digit pace in Jan-Feb
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

China's exports to Russia jumped 19.8% in the first two months, to a total of $15 billion, while it recorded shrinking demand from markets elsewhere. Imports from Russia soared by 31.3% to $18.65 billion. That left the world's second-biggest economy's trade deficit with Russia at about $3.6 billion. Asked whether it was possible that China and Russia would abandon the U.S. dollar and euro for bilateral trade, Qin said that countries should use whatever currency was efficient, safe and credible. China's trade with Russia hit a record high in 2022 as Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

If the target is achieved, what will it likely mean for commodity imports in 2023? An acceleration of economic growth to 5% implies that more commodities will be required, and probably to the extent that China's imports will return to positive territory. Already there are some signs of a pick-up in commodity demand, especially for iron ore, the key raw material for steel. If the official numbers are in line with Refinitiv's estimate, February will be the strongest month for crude oil imports since July 2020. Overall, the current backdrop is positive for China's commodity demand, with the end of COVID-19 restrictions boosting fuel consumption and stimulus spending encouraging increasing steel output.

☆ Oil pares gains on European rate hike fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices pared early gains on Thursday as signs of a strong economic rebound in top crude importer China were offset by fears over the impact of potential increases to European interest rates. China's seaborne imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record high this month as refiners take advantage of cheap prices. However, the market was pressured by growing expectations of rate increases by the European Central Bank (ECB) after faster than expected acceleration in consumer prices in France, Spain and Germany. "Resurfacing inflation worries contributed to the souring mood," said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga. Record exports of U.S. crude oil, however, kept the build smaller than in recent weeks, the Energy Information Administration said.

☆ China's imports of Russian oil are on track to hit a record high as Beijing doubles down on steep discounts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China's seaborne imports of Russian crude are on course to hit a record high in March, according to Reuters. Analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler estimate nearly 43 million barrels of Russian crude will reach China this month. The hefty buying comes as China snaps up Russian oil at huge discounts, and the nation relaxes its COVID-19 policies. China has been a top buyer of Russian oil since President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine last year. It's also been snapping up Russian crude in the absence of Western buyers, which has subsequently led to lower prices for Asia.

☆ Oil holds gains on China rebound, even as U.S. crude stocks rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

However a tenth consecutive week of crude stock builds in the United States capped the market's gains. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 24 to 480.2 million barrels, their highest level since May 2021, the Energy Information Administration reported. Record exports of U.S. crude oil, however, kept the build smaller than in recent weeks, with shipments rising to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, according to the EIA. Meanwhile, crude oil processed by Indian refiners reached record levels in January, provisional government data on Wednesday showed, as the country boosted imports of Russian barrels that Western countries shunned. Refinery throughput in the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer reached 5.39 million barrels per day for January, the highest since Reuters records going back to 2009.

Hefty Chinese buying, alongside robust Indian demand, has been spurred by steep price discounts but is providing Moscow much-needed revenue after the Group of Seven imposed a $60 price cap on Russian crude. Tanker tracking consultancies Vortexa and Kpler estimated nearly 43 million barrels of Russian crude oil, comprising about at least 20 million barrels of ESPO Blend and 11 million barrels of Urals, are set to reach China in March. The previous high for Russian seaborne crude imports was 42.48 million barrels in June 2020, shiptracking data showed. The data also pointed to record arrivals of rarely bought oil from Russia's Arctic, with three tankers carrying about 3.15 million barrels due to reach China this month, after 2.7 million barrels landed in February. Most of these cargoes were bought by China's independent refiners, which are larger customers of seaborne Russian oil than the state importers.

☆ Ron DeSantis' past views could come back to bite him in Iowa, a critical state for any GOP challenger to Trump
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Ron DeSantis' potential bid to dethrone former President Donald Trump could hit a critical snag in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucuses. "If you come to Iowa, you're going to talk about agriculture," Monte Shaw, the executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, told Insider. DeSantis won't be alone in facing questionsTrump's own administration was hammered over its handling of the renewable fuel standard. Like Iowa's senators, he was also deeply frustrated by how Trump's EPA enforced the renewable fuel standard. Chris Carlson/APTexas Sen. Ted Cruz was hammered for months on the campaign trail for wanting to phase out the Renewable Fuel Standard.

☆ Oil gains on Russian supply cut worries, but higher U.S. inventories weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Andrew Hayley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended gains for a second session on Friday as the prospect of lower exports from Russia offset rising inventories in the United States. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.7%, to $82.82 per barrel by 0215 GMT. The prospect of further rate hikes supported the dollar index , which was set for a fourth straight week of gains. Oil has also been pressured by a surge in U.S. crude inventories to the highest since May 2021, as refiners ran less oil during a strong maintenance season. Crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels to a about 479 million barrels, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

☆ These electric vehicle ETFs are up 20% this year — and analysts still see major upside ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure ETF The Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure ETF (ELEC) by hanETF is expected to rise by 60.8% over the next year, according to the weighted average of analyst price targets of constituent stocks compiled by FactSet. The ETF, which tracks the Solactive Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Index, is traded on the London Stock Exchange, Italy's Borsa Italiana, and Germany's Xetra and Gettex exchanges. ChargePoint , which operates the largest network of electric vehicle charging stations in North America and Europe, is the fund's largest holding as of Feb. 21, according to FactSet. For example, France's Renault is the ETF's largest holding at 4.9% of total assets. The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF was not included in the analysis due to a lack of price target data on FactSet.

☆ Exclusive: Russia plans deep March oil export cuts -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MOSCOW/LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Russia plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its announced production cuts in a bid to lift prices for its oil, three sources in the Russian oil market said. Russia had already announced plans to cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, amounting to 5% of its output or 0.5% of global production. U.S. treasury officials have said the Russian decision to cut oil production reflects its inability to sell all its oil. "The export cuts appear to be deeper than the planned production cuts. Russian oil has traded below than level in recent weeks due to steep discounts and expensive freight rates.

Analysts expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 to meet increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come on stream. China and India have become major buyers of Russian crude amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and more recently, embargoes and price caps because of the Ukraine war. In India, the world's third-biggest oil importer, crude imports rose to a six-month high in January, government data showed. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), equating to about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand", they wrote.

Both crude benchmarks settled $2 down on Friday for a decline of about 4% over the week after the United States reported higher crude and gasoline inventories. Analysts expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 to meet increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come on stream. China and India have become major buyers of Russian crude amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and more recently, embargoes and price caps because of the Ukraine war. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), equating to about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand", they wrote.

Rather than being driven by concerns over the potential loss of Russian shipments of diesel, the market in Asia appears more reflective of ongoing strength in diesel exports from China and India. China is expected to export about 2.4 million tonnes of diesel in February, equivalent to about 643,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to data compiled by Refinitiv Oil Research. This would be up from January shipments of around 1.78 million tonnes and 2.32 million in December. Almost 88% of India's February diesel exports are heading West of Suez as refiners on the country's west coast take advantage of the gap left by Russian diesel exiting Europe. It also appears that Russia is still able to find buyers for its diesel, despite losing its biggest market as Europe used to buy about 500,000 bpd of Russian diesel prior to the war in Ukraine.

☆ India's Russian oil imports surge to a record in January - trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Russian oil accounts for 27% of India's January oil importsIndia imports from Russia hit record in JanuaryRussia, India's top oil supplier in January, then Iraq, SaudiNEW DELHI, Feb 17 (Reuters) - India's Russian oil imports climbed to a record 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up 9.2% from December, with Moscow still the top monthly oil seller to New Delhi, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, data from trade sources showed. India's oil imports typically rise in December and January as state-run refiners avoid maintenance shutdowns in the first quarter to meet their annual production targets fixed by the government. Last month India's imports of Russian Sokol crude oil were the highest so far at 100,900 bpd, as output from the Sakhalin 1 field resumed under a new Russian operator, the data showed. India's Iraqi oil imports in January rose to a seven-month high of 983,000 bpd, up 11% from December, the data showed. India's oil importsIndia's oil imports from various regionsReporting by Nidhi Verma; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ PBF Energy posts bumper quarterly profit, partners with Eni on biorefinery
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Arunima Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 16 (Reuters) - PBF Energy Inc (PBF.N) posted a higher fourth-quarter profit on Thursday and said it sealed a joint venture with a unit of Italian energy group Eni (ENI.MI) for a renewable diesel project in the United States. The joint venture, St. Bernard Renewables LLC (SBR), will own the renewable diesel project currently under construction and co-located with PBF's Chalmette refinery in Louisiana. PBF's gross refining margin, excluding special items, rose to $1.71 billion in the reported quarter, from $998.7 million a year ago. The company expects full-year 2023 throughput between 935,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 995,000 bpd, and in the current quarter between 845,000 bpd and 905,000 bpd. However, on an adjusted basis, it posted a profit $4.41 per share, missing average analysts' estimate of $4.98 per share, according to Refinitiv data.

☆ India cuts windfall tax on crude, aviation turbine fuel and diesel
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BENGALURU, Feb 16 (Reuters) - India has cut its windfall tax on crude oil and exports of aviation turbine fuel and diesel, according to a government notification dated Feb. 15. Windfall tax on crude was cut to 4,350 rupees ($52.60) per tonne from 5,050 rupees per tonne, effective Thursday. The government also cut export tax on aviation turbine fuel to 1.50 rupees per litre from 6 rupees per litre, and reduced export tax on diesel to 2.50 rupees per litre from 7.50 rupees per litre, the notification said. India had in July imposed the windfall tax on crude oil producers and levies on exports of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel after private refiners wanted to make gains from robust refining margins in overseas markets, instead of selling it cheap at homeThe cuts came as Indian refiners continued to stock up discounted Russian fuel amid a steady increase in domestic consumption. ($1 = 82.7010 Indian rupees)Reporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru and Nikunj Ohri in New Delhi; Editing by Sohini GoswamiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

However, there are opportunities for Russian products to flow into both China, the world's biggest crude importer, and India, the second-biggest oil importer in Asia. Imports of Russian fuel oil by China, India and Saudi/UAESAUDI, EMIRATESThe other region that offers scope for Russian products is the Middle East, where the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have been increasing imports. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE can utilise Russian fuel oil to displace crude in direct-burning for power generation. This has the advantage of freeing up higher value domestic crude oil for export or for processing in refineries for export as fuels. In February 2022 the UAE exported 5.47 million barrels of diesel, but only 1.91 million barrels went to Europe, with Asian countries taking 900,000 barrels and African nations 1.82 million barrels.

Commodities from iron ore to crude oil to copper rallied after Beijing's surprise abandonment of the zero-COVID policy late last year, but have since eased back. While there are other factors driving commodity prices, it's also the case that the positive market sentiment created by expectations of a rebound in the world's second-largest economy ran ahead of actual commodity demand. China's imports of major commodities have yet to show any major spike higher, even as they remain at relatively robust levels. The irony is that just as commodity prices are losing some steam, China's economic momentum appears to be gathering pace. Overall, there is little doubt that China's re-opening will be positive for the country's commodity demand.

☆ Markets are kicking off a make-or-break stretch with inflation, jobs, and more Fed policy looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned — once again — last week that rates may eventually end up higher than markets anticipate as the fight against inflation remains far from over. Now, ahead of the CPI report, let's check in with the outlook for stocks. To Bernstein strategist Matthew Palazzolo, today's inflation reading will kick off a momentous five-week stretch for equities. The jobs report on March 3, the next inflation report on March 14, and the Fed meeting on March 22 will shape the rest of the year for stocks, he explained to my colleague George Glover. Your best bet for where the stock market's going this year can be found in the two-year Treasury yield, according to Mohamed El-Erian.

☆ Oil falls on demand concerns as impact of Russian output cut fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Monday after rising 2% in the previous session as investors shrugged off the impact of Russian output cuts, instead focusing on short-term demand concerns stemming from refinery maintenance in Asia and the United States. Brent crude futures fell 69 cents, or 0.8%, to $85.70 a barrel by 0153 GMT after a 2.2% gain on Friday. Both contracts rose more than 8% last week, buoyed by optimism over demand recovery in China, the world's top crude importer and No. China's oil demand recovery is curbing its gasoline exports in February although its refiners are maintaining diesel shipments at above 2 million tonnes. Oil prices may resume their rally back to $100 a barrel later this year on China's demand recovery and limited supply growth due to a lack of investment, OPEC country officials told Reuters.

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