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The tech industry, already dominant, only seemed destined to grow even bigger at the start of this year. The spread of the Omicron variant suggested a continued pandemic-fueled demand for digital goods and services, which had buoyed many tech companies. The result was a bloodbath unlike anything the tech industry has seen in the past decade. For years, Silicon Valley has held up its founders as visionaries who can see far into the future. “I do not think venture is cratering, or the tech industry is cratering as an industry.”But for now, at least, there appears to be no end in sight to the pain for Silicon Valley and those who work in it.
Investor sentiment is worse than it was at the depths of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, according to Fundstrat. But stock market conditions today are not as bad as they were in 2008, suggesting a bottom is near. Based on a rolling 51-week average of bearish sentiment measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, sentiment is at its lowest level on record since the survey began in 1987, Fundstrat's Ken Xuan said in a Thursday note. All-in, the overly bearish investor sentiment, combined with inflation showing signs of falling "like a rock," means the stock market is near a bottom if it hasn't already been realized. And that sets the stock market up for a big rally in 2023, which Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes can eclipse more than 20% to his 2023 S&P 500 target of 4,750.
The future of Meta's virtual reality headsets and the metaverse
  + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe future of Meta's virtual reality headsets and the metaverseShares of Facebook's parent company Meta have been pummeled this year. CNBC's Steve Kovach joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what 2023 could hold for the company.
But Elon Musk's automaker remains poised to lead the EV race in 2023, Morgan Stanley said this week. EV supply outpacing consumer demand next year will benefit Tesla. Tesla will "widen its lead in the EV race" next year, Adam Jonas said. Even with the increased competition, Tesla may be in a position to extend its lead in 2023, Jonas wrote. All automakers, Tesla included, have struggled to get the cost of their EVs down.
Seriously, this is not where I thought we would be: The 3,800 level on the S & P 500 at the end of December 2022. If you listen to pundits, almost all are in dour agreement about a poor 2023 market . The table below shows all the years since 1960 when the S & P 500 fell at least 10%. In six of the 10 years following a 10% decline, the average increase in the S & P 500 was 17.5%. The S & P 500 index is down 20% for the year, the equal-weighted S & P 500 is off by about 13%, multiples have compressed, and sentiment is highly negative – that's bullish.
An outdated scheduling system and unique flight network structure exacerbated the problem. Airline analysts and industry experts told Insider and other outlets that Southwest's outdated scheduling system and atypical approach to mapping its flight network were partially responsible for the crisis. Canceled Southwest Airlines flights show on a monitor at Hollywood Burbank Airport, Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022. The problem has been further inflamed by Southwest's scheduling system. Passengers wait in line to claim their baggage at Nashville International Airport after their flights on Southwest Airlines were cancelled in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 27, 2022.
But in a year that saw investors abandon all major tech stocks, Big Blue was in the green. High gas prices, soaring inflation and the Federal Reserve's steady pace of rate increases have punished growth stocks and favored more mature, less volatile names that are viewed as more recession-resistant. Among U.S. tech companies valued at $50 billion or more, IBM was one of only two to generate positive returns in 2022. IBM beats Big Tech in 2022 CNBCIBM is "trading well above its historical range," Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. IBM's model through 2024 calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth, translating into free cash flow growth in the high single digits.
As equities plunge and recessionary fears grow, bond yields look increasingly enticing. "Fixed income starts to look attractive if recession risks are growing," said Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities, in a recent interview with Insider. To offset these more liquid assets, Misra recommended investors look to pick up yield, such as with mortgage-backed securities, which she said look attractive at their current spreads. However, Misra believes that the current 10-year Treasury yield of around 3.7% feels a little too low, especially since she forecasts rates climbing slightly higher in the near future. While investment-grade bonds have less default risk, Misra believes investors may find it hard to pick and choose winning sectors within a high-interest-rate economy.
[1/3] Vehicles are left stranded on the road following a winter storm that hit the Buffalo region in Amherst, New York, U.S., December 25, 2022. The greater Buffalo region, lying at the edge of Lake Erie near the Canadian border was one of the hardest-hit places. The governor called it an "epic, once-in-a-lifetime" weather disaster that ranked as the fiercest winter storm to hit Buffalo, New York state's second-largest city, since a crippling 1977 blizzard that killed nearly 30 people. The latest blizzard, which initially overwhelmed emergency crews, came nearly six weeks after a record-setting but shorter-lived lake-effect storm struck western New York. He said one electrical substation knocked offline was sealed off by an 18-foot-tall mound of snow, and utility crews found the entire facility frozen inside.
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian shells pummeled the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on Saturday, killing at least 10 people and injuring 55 in the city that Moscow’s troops were forced to abandon last month. “This is not sensitive content — it’s the real life of Kherson,” Zelenskyy tweeted. He added that 55 people were wounded, 18 of them in grave condition. Yanushevych said scores of others, including a 6-year-old girl, were wounded by Russian shelling a day earlier. The shelling has been especially intense in Kherson since Russian forces withdrew and Ukraine’s army reclaimed the city in November.
[1/6] Hoak's restaurant is covered in ice from the spray of Lake Erie waves during a winter storm that hit the Buffalo region in Hamburg, New York, U.S. December 24, 2022. Twenty-eight people have died so far in weather-related incidents across the country, according to an NBC News tally. The Buffalo airport had recorded 43 inches (109 cm) of snow as of 7 a.m ET (1200 GMT) on Sunday, Otto said. "Another one to two feet in general before Monday morning in the Buffalo area is expected," Otto said. "I guess you can say in some ways, the worst of it is over but there's still some pretty significant snowfall that's ongoing around the Buffalo region today."
[1/3] Dec 24, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) throws the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the first quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY SportsDec 24 (Reuters) - The National Football League (NFL) was hit by the cold that pummeled the United States on Saturday as fans bundled up to watch late-season showdowns in punishing conditions. Cities from Pennsylvania to Georgia were expected to experience their coldest-ever Christmas Eve as an arctic blast gripped much the United States, roiling travel plans during the busy holiday season. "We are exploring every possibility to minimize non-essential power around the stadium," the team said in a statement on Twitter. Reporting by Amy Tennery in New York; Editing by Ken FerrisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Tesla shares could be limited going forward, according to Evercore ISI. Analyst Chris McNally cut his price target on the electric car maker to $200 per share from $300, noting that the stock has now fallen below a key threshold. "The $150-163 technical level was seen as a critical battleline to defend beyond further weakness…and failed," McNally wrote in a note Tuesday, a day after Tesla shares closed at $149.87. "China stalled growth remains, but with global backlog winding down, investors are also revisiting demand assumptions for the first time. Remember, TSLA has ~60% share US but < 10% share EU/China, while BYD grows to 4x TSLA's NEV size in China," McNally said.
U.S. Northeast braced for arrival of sprawling winter storm
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
[1/5] Vehicles are covered by snow in Murdo, South Dakota, U.S., December 16, 2022 in this screen grab taken from a social media video. Rick Dorion/via REUTERSDec 16 (Reuters) - A massive winter storm that spawned deadly tornadoes in the South and pummeled the Northern Plains with blizzard-like conditions earlier in the week was expected to arrive in the Northeast on Friday, bringing heavy snows and fierce winds. The conditions will make driving "very difficult to impossible" as slushy snow covers roadways during the day and into the afternoon commute, the NSW warned. The weight of the wet snow could also bring down trees and power lines, causing widespread power outages, forecasters said. Some 33,000 homes and businesses were without power in Pennsylvania and West Virginia as of Friday morning, Poweroutage.us reported.
Premarket stocks: The Grinch comes for retailers
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
What’s happening: US retail sales, which measure the total amount of money that stores make from selling goods to customers, fell 0.6% in November, the weakest performance in nearly a year. The Fed factor: November’s report could indicate that consumers are feeling the double-punch of sky-high inflation and painful interest rate hikes from the central bank. This retail sales data adds to recessionary concerns, as it suggests that consumers may be becoming more cautious with their spending. Those increases were spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of harsh interest rate hikes to tame soaring inflation. The Fed announced on Wednesday that it will continue to raise interest rates — albeit by a smaller amount than it has been.
Bank of America strategists see risks of a Federal Reserve policy mistake in 2023 that could generate a "hard landing" for an economy trying to fight through elevated inflation. The bank's investing team has come up with 10 moves that investors can make to protect themselves against challenging conditions. Part of that trade is also to go long emerging market assets, which have been hurt by the stronger greenback. Specifically, the bank recommends emerging market distressed bonds, the Korean won currency, the reopening in China and the Mexican peso. Bank of America has a 4,000 price target on the S & P 500 for 2023, implying just a 2.7% gain from Thursday's close.
Retail sales declined 5.9% in November from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. It was the worst contraction in retail spending since May, when widespread Covid lockdowns, including in the country’s richest city Shanghai, pummeled the economy. Property sales by value plummeted by more than 26%. Last week, customs data showed the country’s exports contracted 8.7% in November from a year ago, the worst performance since February 2020. China’s economy has been battered by its stringent zero-Covid policy and persistent property woes this year.
A cadre of quant investment strategies that benefit during times of tumult are on pace for their best year since at least 2000—and those funds are counting on markets remaining volatile to extend their banner run. The funds wager on various assets as they rise or fall, building their bets as a trend strengthens. When algorithmic warning signs flash, they pivot into fresh positions. Those strategies have been a rare haven for much of the year as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases have pummeled stocks and bonds. The SG CTA Index, run by Société Générale and BarclayHedge to track the 20 largest such strategies, is up 19% in 2022, on pace for its best year since launching in 2000.
Bankruptcy is becoming more likely for beaten-down car seller Carvana , according to Wedbush Securities. Analyst Seth Basham downgraded the online used car retailer's stock to underperform from neutral and slashed his price target to $1 from $9 per share. Basham said a restructuring would allow to company to bring down its annual interest expense burden of more than $600 million. It's the latest news in a year that's pummeled the car platform's share value. In 2022 alone, the share value has dropped 97.1% from where it began the year.
A rare subtropical December storm could form in the Atlantic this week, marking the first in nearly a decade. Although the Atlantic hurricane season ended Nov. 30, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic have a 40% chance of developing into a subtropical storm in two days, and a 50% chance in five days. The last time there was a December subtropical storm was nine years ago in 2013. The next name on the list for a storm is Owen, following Hurricane Nicole which pummeled the east coast of Florida last month. A subtropical storm has a maximum sustained surface wind speed of 39 mph, according to the weather agency.
Mr. Warnock consolidated Democratic voters, while Mr. Walker struggled to rally his party behind him. Mr. Walker was wrapping up a campaign that appears to have failed to consolidate the disparate wings of his party. Image Mr. Warnock spoke on Monday in Atlanta at the SWAG Shop barbershop with Killer Mike, the rapper. Credit... Nicole Craine for The New York TimesMr. Kemp kept some distance from Mr. Walker during the general election. Mr. Mathews said he planned to cast his ballot Tuesday for Mr. Walker.
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday told investors that they still have time to sell their cryptocurrency holdings. "You can't just beat yourself up and say, 'hey, it's too late to sell.' The truth is, it's never too late to sell an awful position, and that's what you have if you own these so-called digital assets," he said. Cramer, who has warned against staying in speculative assets while the Fed continues to tighten the economy, reiterated his argument and said that investors shouldn't be fooled by some coins' inflated market capitalization. He added that he expects more marginal names including XRP , dogecoin , Cardano and Polygon to fall much further, possibly to zero.
The chip shortage has been hurting the auto industry for more than two years. The chip shortage has pummeled the global auto industry for years, depressing dealership inventory levels and driving up new and used vehicle prices. Since 2020, auto companies have sacrificed production levels and valuable features like heated seats, while prioritizing money-making vehicles. In 2021, automakers built 3.23 million fewer vehicles than expected in North America because of the chip shortage. Next year's potential chip shortage respite could bring relief to car shoppers if inventory levels recover, pushing down prices.
But some don't think retail investors are ready for the level of risk in the asset class. Alternative investments, as the name suggests, is an asset outside of traditional investments like stocks, bonds, and cash. Investors choose from private-equity funds, venture capital, hedge funds, real estate, and art, among other areas. Such returns have attracted state pension funds, university endowments, and, most recently, individual investors from the ultra-high-net-worth to the Joe Schmoes. Companies like iCapital, Allocate, RealBlocks and CAIS (pronounced case) launched to help wealth-management firms usher their clients into sought-after private market funds.
But, as the central bank's aggressive rate hikes start to slow the economy and potentially tip the U.S. into a recession, Wood expects the tide to turn for her fund. "Interest rates will follow inflation," she said during a CNBC Pro Talk on Monday. When sentiment gets very bleak, or it's clear that the economy is deteriorating, that's often when the Fed would pause interest rate hikes or even begin cutting them. Biggest recession factor right now In terms of a potential 2023 recession, the biggest factor Wood sees right now is the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes to cool off hot inflation. "Taking interest rates up 16-fold, we think is a mistake," said Wood.
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