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WASHINGTON, Feb 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Federal Reserve is being relentless in its quest to bring inflation down to 2%, from its latest reading of 5%. Given the vagaries of inflation psychology, it’s not clear the Fed is justified in being so single-minded. By the officials’ own forecasts, the inflation fight will hurt hundreds of thousands of workers. And Americans routinely overestimate how high inflation will run in the next year, according to the New York Fed, typically expecting around 3%. Projections published by the central bank at the December meeting showed inflation returning to 2% in 2025.
Bottling U.S. inflation could cost workers dearly
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Given the vagaries of inflation psychology, it’s not clear the Fed is justified in being so single-minded. By the officials’ own forecasts, the inflation fight will hurt hundreds of thousands of workers. Projections published after the Fed’s December meeting suggest the view that by the time inflation returns to 2% in 2025, unemployment will have risen to 4%, from 3.5% in December. And Americans routinely overestimate how high inflation will run in the next year, according to the New York Fed, typically expecting around 3%. Projections published by the central bank at the December meeting showed inflation returning to 2% in 2025.
Humana is set to soar in 2023 after delivering strong Q4
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
Health insurer Humana (HUM) on Wednesday reported a stellar fourth quarter and provided a robust full-year outlook, setting the Club holding up for significant growth in 2023. Outlook Management guided for full year 2023 adjusted earnings-per-share to be at least $28, in line with analysts' forecasts. The 2023 benefits expense ratio range of 86.3% to 87.3% is slightly above the 86.3% ratio predicted by analysts, at the midpoint. But given the company already expects to be above the industry growth rate in 2023, Humana is ahead of expectations — bolstering the Club's confidence in the achievability its long-term outlook. But Humana's management only said they're still "reviewing the final rule and considering its impact."
The social media company run by Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew will appear in front of a U.S. House of Representatives committee in March. But Chew, a Harvard University alumnus, will have to travel far beyond Washington to make America comfortable. But late last year, Chinese parent company ByteDance found that some employees had improperly accessed it to snoop on journalists. That’s likely to take up considerable airtime when Chew faces the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. But the short-video app also faces the prospect of death by 50 cuts, as individual states weigh their own approaches.
TikTok’s trust-me tour will need at least 50 stops
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The social media company run by Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew will appear in front of a U.S. House of Representatives committee in March. But Chew, a Harvard University alumnus, will have to travel far beyond Washington to make America comfortable. But late last year, Chinese parent company ByteDance found that some employees had improperly accessed it to snoop on journalists. That’s likely to take up considerable airtime when Chew faces the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. But the short-video app also faces the prospect of death by 50 cuts, as individual states weigh their own approaches.
Intel is becoming accidental ad for friendshoring
  + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Its plan to catch up to rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) in technology and manufacturing prowess, always ambitious, now looks implausible. If the U.S. government is keen to nurture a domestic chip industry, Intel is becoming an accidental advertisement for friendshoring. And as the building of data centers has cooled, revenue at the Intel unit that makes chips for them declined 33%. The bigger problem for Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger is that its chief rival TSMC is still making strides, and producing smaller chips, at just 3 nanometers. Intel estimated first-quarter revenue would be between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion.
Goldman Sachs cuts Solomon, and his pay, down to size
  + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Or at least that is the apparent message Goldman Sachs (GS.N) is trying to send by slashing boss David Solomon’s pay by a third for 2022, to $25 million. Measured by Goldman’s performance last year, Solomon actually did fairly well. Goldman also grew its book value – accounting-speak for shareholders’ claim on the lender – by a respectable 6%. Solomon’s humble pie may taste good to his Goldman colleagues, but it could present a different flavor profile to shareholders. loadingCONTEXT NEWSGoldman Sachs said its board had awarded Chief Executive David Solomon compensation of $25 million for his work in 2022, compared with $35 million the previous year.
Goldman cuts Solomon, and his pay, down to size
  + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Or at least that is the apparent message Goldman Sachs (GS.N) is trying to send by slashing boss David Solomon’s pay by a third for 2022, to $25 million. Measured by Goldman’s performance last year, Solomon actually did fairly well. Goldman also grew its book value – accounting-speak for shareholders’ claim on the lender – by a respectable 6%. It would have been hard to reward Solomon at a time when employees are feeling the chill, and hot on the heels of 3,200 layoffs. Solomon’s humble pie may taste good to his Goldman colleagues, but it could present a different flavor profile to shareholders.
NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Morgan Stanley (MS.N) is embracing the Pottery Barn rule: You break it, you pay for it. The original breach was one revelation in what makes Wall Street tick; Morgan Stanley’s response, or the idea that it’s an outlier, is another. What’s good for the pottery store sounds good for Wall Street too. Morgan Stanley was one of 11 banks fined by the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in September 2022. At the time, the SEC noted that Morgan Stanley had financially penalized and terminated some staff for violating its policies.
Euro-banks have done their time in valuation jail
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Major euro zone and UK banks are trading at a 40% discount to the region’s wider benchmark index, using price to forward earnings multiples tracked by Refinitiv. The subsequent euro zone crisis in 2012 prompted a wave of bad debt that weighed down earnings. More recently, though, euro zone lenders have been facing up to their past sins, and offloading non-performing loans. There’s no evidence of a bank lending splurge, despite years of rock-bottom interest rates. Between November 2012 and November 2022, euro zone banks’ total lending to households and companies grew at an annual clip of under 2%, a fraction of its pre-2008 pace.
Even bad news is good news for Rupert Murdoch
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A remarkable thing about Rupert Murdoch is that the wily media mogul makes out OK even when his plans fall apart. Despite abandoning the idea to recombine his Fox (FOXA.O) and News Corp (NWSA.O) empires, simply proposing and studying the idea helped uncover some hidden value. In any case, he’s likely try to unite them again someday anyhow. Both Fox and News Corp conceded on Tuesday that a merger wasn’t a good idea for shareholders “at this time.” It suggests that Murdoch, who tends to get his way, will eventually try again. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Microsoft’s revenue sniffles are tech’s flu
  + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Microsoft’s (MSFT.O) revenue growth rarely falters. Microsoft’s revenue from computer manufacturers for installing the Windows operating system fell 39%. And companies looking to cut costs will delay, or kill, IT projects, which will hit even Microsoft’s fastest-growing units. Microsoft’s revenue sniffles, however, probably signal bigger problems for tech firms that sell less essential goods to consumers and firms. Follow @rob_cyran on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSMicrosoft said on Jan. 24 that revenue for the quarter ending Dec. 31 was $52.7 billion.
[1/2] A Gulfstream logo is pictured during the European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE) at Geneva Airport, Switzerland May 28, 2018. From preowned planes selling more gradually to flattening business jet traffic, demand is beginning to moderate, aviation lawyers, brokers and analysts said. Investors will be watching for clues when Gulfstream-maker General Dynamics Corp (GD.N) and Cessna business jet maker Textron Inc (TXT.N) report earnings on Wednesday. Planemakers rarely disclose cases of distressed planes, but argue they can easily resell unwanted models. Some buyers also scrambled late last year to find distressed planes to qualify for favorable taxation rules.
Amazon creates bazaar for U.S. banking wannabes
  + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The e-commerce goliath recently added to its growing pile of debt with an $8 billion loan. After first tapping the market’s biggest bookrunners, Amazon enlisted Canada’s TD Securities to shop the lesser-traveled byways around Wall Street for the follow-up deal. It’s easy to understand why the wannabes would jump at the chance to work with Amazon. Others such as BBVA, which offloaded its American subsidiary but kept its broker-dealer business, are keen to expand in U.S. investment banking. For Amazon, spreading the wealth is a chance to trial new banking relationships before potentially hiring them for more complicated matters.
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Monday, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signalling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.1 % at $1.0865. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. "Really what's driving things is central bank policy divergence," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. So when you weigh the outlook for central bank policy, it depicts the dollar at a disadvantage, given market bets on the Fed moving more slowly than its counterparts abroad," Manimbo said.
The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. The single currency was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council members Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir, who both advocated for two more 50 basis point hikes at meetings in February and March. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing. The pound rose as high as $1.24475 , its highest in seven months, before turning 0.3% lower to $1.2355.
The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. It was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured a hike of 50 basis points in March and an eventual top of 3.25% from the current rate of 2%. "Layered on top of that, it looks as if the ECB are going to carry on hiking interest rates fairly aggressively," Foley added. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing.
Bank earnings become a post-Covid parlor game
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Chief among the mysteries is how much interest banks will harvest in 2023 and beyond. Even then, the link between benchmark interest rates and the rate banks actually charge is getting harder to forecast. Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan said that depositors who used to have roughly $3,500 with the bank now have almost four times more. Goldman just laid off 6% of its workforce, but it remains bigger than it was in 2019; Bank of America says it’s still hiring. To that end, the fog is arguably less troublesome for Goldman and Morgan Stanley than it is for JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup (C.N).
One night, I said to Marianne, "What if we made a Netflix for the movie theater industry? I tried to push my subscription idea, but it fell flat. I continued to tread water on my subscription idea, but things were slow going. One Saturday, a dear friend of ours named Peter called and asked how the movie subscription idea was coming. They're interested in buying both the Urbanworld Film Festival and the movie subscription company for one million dollars.
The billionaire Tim Draper is part of a lineage often lauded as Silicon Valley's premier VC family. As far as powerful professional networks go, it's hard to top the Draper family tree. Draper's venture-capital career began in the 1950s at his father's own trailblazing firm, Draper, Gaither, and Anderson, an early entrant in a new field. Meet the Draper family, the ultimate tech nepo babies and Silicon Valley royalty. Jesse DraperJesse Draper founded Halogen Ventures, which counts her father as an advisor.
NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Alphabet’s (GOOGL.O) plan to cut 12,000 jobs adds to the sense that U.S. technology firms are preparing for a more modest future. Tech firms based in the United States announced over 97,000 job cuts in 2022 according to consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, the most since the dot-com crash. Moreover, new job postings fell sharply at the end of 2022, according to trade group CompTIA. If all tech firms did the same, that would leave employment at 4.2 million, or about 5% larger than it was at the end of 2019. loadingCONTEXT NEWSAlphabet plans to eliminate about 12,000 jobs, according to a memo seen by Reuters on Jan. 20.
Disney investors pay twice for half-leadership
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Walt Disney’s (DIS.N) poor succession planning is costing its shareholders twice over. That takes Disney to $60 million in total pay for the duo. Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O), a fraction of Disney’s size, awarded its boss David Zaslav a $247 million compensation package in 2021. For the 2023 fiscal year, his target compensation package in 2023 is approximately $28 million. Disney urged shareholders to vote for its slate of directors at the company’s upcoming annual meeting.
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Walt Disney’s (DIS.N) poor succession planning is costing its shareholders twice over. That takes Disney to $60 million in total pay for the duo. Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O), a fraction of Disney’s size, awarded its boss David Zaslav a $247 million compensation package in 2021. For the 2023 fiscal year, his target compensation package in 2023 is approximately $28 million. Activist investor Nelson Peltz, through his company Trian Fund Management, has challenged Disney by seeking a seat on the board.
Goldman slams into unwelcome sort of volatility
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The similarities between Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) are drawing attention to what makes them different. Investment banking fees halved year-on-year for each, though Goldman generated roughly 50% more from deal advice and underwriting stocks and bonds than its archrival. During the decade before he took over, Goldman traded at a premium to Morgan Stanley. Separately, rival Morgan Stanley reported earnings per share of $1.26 for the same three-month period, 37% less than for the same span in 2021, and slightly higher than analysts’ forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Goldman reported a $2 billion full-year loss for its new “platform solutions” division, which includes the credit card it offers alongside iPhone maker Apple.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.
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