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☆ India's retail inflation rate likely peaked in September - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's consumer price-led inflation is expected to gradually decelerate after September, helped by a fall in commodity prices and easing food inflation, analysts said. India's annual retail inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 7.41% in September from 7% in the previous month, data released on Wednesday showed. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 8.60% in September, compared to 7.62% in August. However, helped partially by easing global commodity prices, India's inflation rate should moderate from here, likely reaching "a tad below" the 6% mark by February or March, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Credit Suisse said that the October inflation rate will likely be 1% lower given a higher base, especially for food prices.

☆ Exclusive: India's RBI asks banks to stop building positions in offshore market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The build-up of positions in this segment of the market is forcing the RBI to spend more reserves to defend the rupee, one of the bankers said. For instance, the USD/INR NDF 1-month rate is currently 7 paisa higher than the corresponding onshore rate and the 3-month forward rate is about 25 paisa higher. To take advantage of this arbitrage, eligible banks could buy spot dollars onshore and pay 1-month premium while selling USD/INR 1-month in the NDF market. Bankers argue that the RBI's curbs on the activity of banks on NDF will not ease pressure on the rupee. Instead, it would lead to offshore rates once again having more influence on the rupee exchange rate.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares fall as rate hike fears surface; Wipro plunges
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Indian shares were lower in early trade on Thursday after data showed the country's retail inflation accelerated to a five-month high in September, stoking fears of further rate hikes by the central bank. The NSE Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) fell 0.19% to 17,090.50 as of 0348 GMT, and the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) declined 0.26% to 57,477.01. The country's annual retail inflation jumped to 7.41% last month, as food prices surged, and it remained above the Reserve Bank of India's target for three quarters. Market participants now await U.S. consumer price data due later in the day. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Rama Venkat in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Neha AroraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), established in 2016, is mandated to keep inflation within 2 percentage points on either side of its 4% target. Reuters GraphicsGarima Kapoor, an economist at Elara Capital, said retail inflation was likely to ease to an average of 6% only by January-March. "We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hike policy repo rate by another 40-50 bps this financial year," she said, and higher inflation could mean further rate hikes. Annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) in September was higher than the 7.3% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and above 7% the previous month, data released by the National Statistics Office on Wednesday showed. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 8.60% in September, compared to 7.62% in August.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares rise as oil prices decline; inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Indian shares opened higher on Wednesday, as a fall in global oil prices boosted sentiment, while investors awaited domestic retail inflation data and quarterly earnings results from IT firm Wipro later in the day. India, the world's third-biggest importer and consumer of oil, benefits from a fall in prices as it brings down imported inflation. On Tuesday, both the indexes had closed at a one-week low - marking their third straight session of losses - on the back of risk aversion globally. Markets also awaited U.S. inflation data on Thursday that kept investors on edge. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Rama Venkat in Bengaluru; Editing by Neha AroraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India inflation likely hit five month high in Sept on food prices: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Arsh Tushar Mogre | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Oct. 3-7 Reuters poll of 47 economists suggested inflation - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (INCPIY=ECI) - rose to an annual 7.30% in September from 7.00% the previous month. Some 91% of economists, 43 of 47, expected inflation to be 7.00% or higher, suggesting the bias was for prices to go up further. "There is a strong pressure from food that is playing out," said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil. The Indian government has introduced measures to calm local prices, including some export restrictions on rice to temper inflation. But consumer prices have remained defiant and stayed above the RBI's upper tolerance limit this year.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares extend fall as autos weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Rama Venkat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Indian shares fell for a third session on Tuesday, with automobile stocks leading losses, as risk-averse trades take hold of financial markets globally. The NSE Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) fell 0.55% to 17,146 as of 0510 GMT, and the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) was down 0.51% to 57,692.61. read moreIn domestic trading, the Nifty's automobile index (.NIFTYAUTO) and the energy index (.NIFTYENR) fell 0.98% and 0.69%, respectively. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS.NS) posted its biggest intraday pct fall in more than three weeks, weighing on the Nifty IT index (.NIFTYIT) which was down 0.75%. "We have seen the worst of inflation getting over so don't see much of a domestic inflation scare as of now."

☆ India Needs More Than Reserves to Fight the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The rupee has been hard hit this year, putting the Reserve Bank of India in an unenviable position. Throwing money at the problem might not work for India anymore. In its battle against a strengthening dollar, the Indian central bank might have to accept there is little it can do to control the slide of the Indian rupee, which is now trading near a record low of around 82 to the dollar. As a result of aggressive intervention by the Reserve Bank of India in recent months, India’s foreign-exchange reserves had dipped to $551 billion by early September, down from $633.6 billion at the end of 2021.

MUMBAI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open higher against the U.S. currency, after the Bank of England's decision to buy long-dated British bonds prompted a pullback in Treasury yields and the dollar index. The rupee is seen at around 81.60-81.65 per dollar in early trades, up from a record closing low of 81.94 on Wednesday. The dollar index tumbled on Wednesday, Treasury yields fell sharply and U.S. equities recovered after the BoE took measures to stop the rout in the U.K. bond market. The dollar index fell the most in more than two years on Wednesday, as risk aversion eased. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to near 3.70%.

☆ India's massive card security deadline unlikely to be extended
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Nupur Anand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MUMBAI, Sept 28 (Reuters) - India's central bank is unlikely to extend a Friday deadline for businesses to set up an additional layer of security for consumers' credit card data even after some concerns remain over payments failing and revenue losses, say bankers and merchants. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) did not respond to an email request for comment. Three years ago, India embarked on a mammoth exercise to secure card data by requiring businesses to tokenise cards by Sept. 30. Merchant associations have also reached out to the central bank to see if they can be given more time. Fraud concerning card or internet transactions have been on a rise and made up 34.6% of total number of fraud cases in FY21, according to central bank data.

Index investors tend to favour international settlement platforms such as Euroclear but India has said it wants to settle bonds onshore, like China. GLOBAL AMBITIONIndia has sought to be included in global bond indexes since 2013, but that ambition has been held up by a number of factors over the years, and JP Morgan only began considering India's inclusion in its global bond index in 2021. If successful, India would be the last major emerging market to be added to the JP Morgan index. Its inclusion could result in additional flows of as much as $30 billion within 10 months into the Indian government bond market, Morgan Stanley estimated earlier this month. Most of JPMorgan's index investors are in favour of including India in the index, but think issues such as investor verification and settlement rules need to be ironed out first, three of the sources said.

☆ RBI may need to reload reserves as Indian rupee falls further, HDFC Bank economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen at the gate of its office in New Delhi, India, November 9, 2018. REUTERS/Altaf Hussain/MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India may need to find ways to replenish its foreign exchange reserves such as encouraging non-resident Indians to deposit more funds, as it looks to stabilise a depreciating rupee, HDFC Bank Chief Economist Abheek Barua said. read more"The central bank should intervene to ensure that a falling currency does not eclipse India's fundamentals," Barua wrote in a note this week. According to Barua, the central bank may need to think of ways to bulk up its forex reserves, should the pool shrink to near $500 billion in the coming months. "More capital is needed at this stage to stabilise the rupee and enable the RBI to replenish its reserves chest," he said.

☆ Nikkei, Kospi fall 2%; Asia-Pacific markets drop as negative sentiment remains
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Abigail Ng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Shares in the Asia-Pacific fell sharply on Monday as negative sentiment continues to weigh in on markets. The Nikkei 225 in Japan dropped 2.19% in early trade, and the Topix slipped 2%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 1.19% lower. Onewo, a subsidiary of property developer China Vanke, is set to debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange this week as well.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares fall over 1% on global growth fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterA man stands in front of a screen displaying news of markets updates inside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, January, 3, 2020. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/BENGALURU, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Indian shares fell on Monday in broadbased selling, tracking Asian peers, as investors shunned equities on renewed worries over economic growth in the face of a high-interest rate environment. The sterling slumped to a record low on Monday as investors piled in to dollars and out of almost everything else, spooked by the prospect of high interest rates and poor growth ahead. Last week, the United States and half a dozen other countries raised interest rates. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India cenbank likely sells dollars as rupee hits fresh record low
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterA man walks behind the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 8, 2022. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File PhotoMUMBAI, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee sank to a new record low on Monday, following the pound's tumble and fears over more aggressive monetary tightening, with traders saying the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars to contain the decline. The rupee hit a record low of 81.5525 per dollar, down from 80.99 in the previous session. "The reason rupee is managing to cling on to 81.50 is the RBI," a private bank trader said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares seen opening lower on global growth fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/BENGALURU, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Indian shares are expected to fall at the open on Monday, in line with Asian peers, amid renewed worries over economic growth on the back of high-interest rate environment. India's NSE stock futures listed on the Singapore exchange were down 0.9% as of 0205 GMT, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 1%. Foreign institutional investors sold net 29 billion rupees worth Indian equities on Friday as per provisional data available with the National Stock Exchange. ** India's Goa Carbon (GOAC.NS) will consider raising funds via issue of equity shares on rights basis. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India's Yes Bank to exit reconstruction scheme after lock-in ends
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe logo of Yes Bank is pictured on the facade of its headquarters in Mumbai, India January 17, 2018. REUTERS/Danish SiddiquiBENGALURU, Sept 23 (Reuters) - India's Yes Bank Ltd (YESB.NS) said on Friday the Reserve Bank of India would allow it to exit a reconstruction scheme put in place more than two years ago only after the share lock-in period ends. The bank said in a regulatory filing the lock-in period for shares of existing shareholders would end in March next year. In March 2020, Yes Bank's financial position had seriously deteriorated, sparking contagion risk in the banking system from the then fifth largest bank in India. Earlier this week, it approved private equity firm JC Flowers ARC as the buyer for its $6 billion stressed loan portfolio.

☆ India cenbank likely sells dollars as rupee plumbs record low - traders
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterAn attendant at a fuel station arranges Indian rupee notes in Kolkata, India, August 16, 2018. REUTERS/Rupak De ChowdhuriMUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars via state-run banks on Friday after the rupee extended losses to hit a record low, three traders told Reuters. The rupee was last trading at 81.0575 per U.S. dollar, compared with the day's low of 81.2250 and the previous session's close of 80.86. Two state-run bank traders also confirmed that the RBI sold dollars. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

REUTERS/Anindito Mukherjee/FilesMUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Indian banks may be forced to compete harder to boost deposits amid tightening liquidity and rising credit demand ahead of the festive season, analysts warned. "We think the real challenge is the gap between deposit growth and loan growth, as deposit growth is weak, at 9.5% YoY – a good 600 bps below loan growth," said Suresh Ganapathy, head of financials research at Macquarie. "Borrowing from the market to fund credit growth is just one of the ways and after a while it isn't sustainable. Rates for bulk deposits, or deposits of over 20 million rupees, are rising more rapidly than retail, highlighting banks' focus on raising more funds quicker. The incremental credit deposit ratio has already crossed 100%, suggesting that banks have started lending more than the total deposits they hold.

☆ RBI to raise rates again, slim majority of economists expect 50 bps hike: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Arsh Tushar Mogre | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen at the gate of its office in New Delhi, India, November 9, 2018. The RBI has lagged many of its global peers, despite inflation sticking above the top end of its target range of 2-6% all year. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterIn the latest Reuters poll, economists were split five ways on what the RBI will do at its next meeting. Slightly over half, 26 of 51, said the RBI would go for a 50 basis point hike, taking the repo rate to 5.90%. Economists expected growth to average 6.2% and 6.5% over the next two years, the poll showed.

☆ INDIA STOCKS Indian shares fall as banks, financials drag
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterBENGALURU, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Indian shares opened lower on Friday, dragged by banks and financials and mirroring their Asian peers, as global risk sentiment remained subdued amid renewed worries over economic growth. The NSE Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) fell 0.4% at 17,554.20 at 0352 GMT, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) dropped 0.4% to 58,868.69. The Nifty bank index (.NSEBANK) was down 0.8%, while the finance index (.NIFTYFIN) dropped 0.9%. Shares of Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS.NS) fell more than 8% after the Reserve Bank of India directed the company to stop using third-party services for loan recovery until further orders. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India's Mahindra's lending arm sees vehicle recovery sliding 75% on RBI order
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People walk past a screen displaying Mahindra and Mahindra logo before the start of a news conference in Mumbai, India May 30, 2016. REUTERS/Danish SiddiquiBENGALURU, Sept 23 (Reuters) - India's Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (MMFSL) (MMFS.NS) said on Friday its monthly vehicle recovery would temporarily fall by about 75%, a day after the country's central bank directed the company to stop using third-party services for repossessions. The company's shares tumbled as much as 10% to 201.35 rupees as of 0414 GMT, their biggest intra-day percentage slide in 17 months. The Reserve Bank of India late on Thursday directed the company to stop using third-party services for recoveries until further orders, citing "material supervisory concerns." The halt on vehicle recovery by the third-party agencies is not expected to have any material impact on its financials, the company said.

A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. The Fed's decision sent the dollar to a new 20-year high and the rupee to a record low of 80.61. The Reserve Bank of India has been selling dollars to alleviate the depreciation pressure on the rupee due to the surging dollar and foreign portfolio outflows. All this points to a structurally weaker rupee," said Dhananjay Sinha, chief economist at Systematix Shares & Stocks. Sinha said the rupee is overvalued by about 5-5.5% on a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis.

☆ India's banking system liquidity may remain in deficit in second half - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File PhotoMUMBAI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Liquidity in India's banking system is likely to remain in deficit in the second half of this financial year as credit growth picks up and the circulation of currency notes rises, analysts said. As of Tuesday, the systemic deficit stood at 218 billion rupees, its highest since May 2019, with tax outflows in past week also squeezing liquidity. "Unless we see reasonable improvement in the balance of payment deficit, liquidity tightness will continue to persist," said Soumyajit Niyogi, director at India Ratings. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsRBI ACTIONThe U-turn in liquidity has pushed up the overnight inter-bank rate above the policy repo rate of 5.4%. The RBI announced an overnight repo auction for 500 billion rupees after the close of market on Wednesday.

☆ Exclusive: India govt 'in no hurry' on medium-term inflation target - sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Aftab Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We are in no hurry to get inflation to 4%. Growth and inflation have to be balanced," said one of the sources, who asked not to be named because discussions on the matter are not public. The RBI's inflation-targeting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), established in 2016, is mandated to keep inflation within a band extending 2 percentage points either side of its 4% target. With economic growth flagging, however, authorities have become worried about steps that would undermine domestic demand. Fitch said it expects India's monetary policy rates to peak in the near future and remain at 6% through next year.

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