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☆ U.S. dollar gains as risk appetite wanes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.48% to 101.84, having dropped more than 4% since March 8. A weak consumer confidence report and a decline in Federal Reserve manufacturing data further added to the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low in April, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 — the lowest since July 2022 - from a revised 104.0 in March. The yen fell 0.39% to 133.70 per dollar.

☆ US consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market bottoming out
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumers have shown resilience despite high inflation and a rise in interest rates, keeping the economy afloat, thanks to a strong labor market. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 37.3 from 36.5 in March, consistent with a tight labor market. "Take consumer purchase plans with a grain of salt," said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. That skepticism also extended to home purchase plans.

☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.

☆ What to watch for in the markets in the week ahead: Monster tech earnings, then sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.

☆ A recession is coming — and stock markets won't come through it unscathed, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The latest U.S. economic data suggests a recession is coming, according to the chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, and investors may need to prepare for some pain in the stock market. Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday, Chris Watling said he believed a recession was on its way, citing what he described as "pretty compelling" and "brutally bad" leading economic indicators. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 1.2% in March, slipping to its lowest level since November 2020. The data appeared to indicate that economic weakness could soon intensify and spread throughout the U.S. economy. "Every time you've had that in the U.S., you've had a recession.

☆ US labor market cooling; leading indicator flashes recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Though measured, the loss of labor market momentum added to slumping retail sales and manufacturing activity in heightening the risks of a recession as soon as the second half of the year. Jobless claimsNevertheless, the labor market is fraying around the edges. It also said contacts reported the labor market becoming less tight, noting "a small number of firms reported mass layoffs," which were "centered at a subset of the largest companies." Philly FedDespite cracks in the labor market, economists did not expect widespread job losses. The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls portion of April's employment report.

☆ Here's why a recession is likely to happen this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why a recession is likely to happen this yearJoe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities chief economist, and Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate hikes, and more.

☆ US stocks fall as weakening data suggests recession coming for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell on Thursday after a slew of economic data suggested a recession is coming. Disappointing earnings from Tesla and AT&T led to a 11% sell-off for both stocks. AT&T also reported earnings that fell flat with investors, sending the stock down as much as 11%. And the Philadelphia Fed Factory index reported another contraction in April, representing the eighth consecutive month of declines in manufacturing activity. A recession is all but certain, so the more important question is if markets will hit new lows as the economy contracts.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ 3 industries with the greatest risk of layoffs—and 4 that are probably secure
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Jennifer Liu | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Information services jobs, ranging from software engineers to recruiters for tech talent, are most at-risk of layoffs in a potential recession because headcount grew so quickly during the pandemic, fueled by shifts in consumer behaviors that required businesses to move everything online, says Frank Steemers, a senior economist with The Conference Board. High-growth tech companies are also more sensitive to interest rate hikes that have happened for the better part of a year now. However, while tech layoffs are taking up headlines, Steemers says these workers are getting rehired quickly across other sectors like health care and business, so they're not being captured by unemployment figures. Jobs in transportation and warehousing, construction, repairs, personal and other services are at risk of being cut because customer demand for e-commerce has slowed now that buying and experiencing things in-person is back on the table. People are also shopping less due to high inflation, high interest rates on debt and high job insecurity with layoff headlines in the news.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

[1/2] A "now hiring" sign is displayed outside Taylor Party and Equipment Rentals in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., September 1, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expect a gain of 239,000 jobs in March, with hourly wages rising at a 4.3% annual rate and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%, a level seen less than 20% of the time since World War Two. Unemployment is still at a very low level," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Reuters last week. How "slack" in the labor market links to lower inflation may depend on where job growth slows, and over what timeline. "The services sector, in particular, has contributed substantially to recent inflation, reflecting ongoing imbalances in labor markets where supply remains impaired and demand remains robust," they wrote.

☆ ‘We’re at a tipping point:’ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —The US labor market has kept trucking right along even as other areas of the economy have slowed. ET Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the heavily anticipated jobs report for March. On Wednesday, the latest private-sector jobs report from payroll processor ADP came in at 145,000 for March, landing below expectations. There still remains uncertainty about the extent to which those and other layoffs may ripple through the broader labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its March jobs report at 8:30 a.m.

☆ ‘We’re at a tipping point:’ What to expect from the jobs report on Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —The US labor market has kept trucking right along even as other areas of the economy have slowed. Just how much of a shift there is could become even clearer on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the heavily anticipated jobs report for March. On Wednesday, the latest private-sector jobs report from payroll processor ADP came in at 145,000 for March, landing below expectations. There still remains uncertainty about the extent to which those and other layoffs may ripple through the broader labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release its March jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: After SVB collapse, stricter rules coming for banks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The rise in yields suggests traders are growing confident the banking turmoil is subsiding, and they're turning their attention back to inflation. In a bizarre way, even if that's bad news for inflation, that's probably good news for everyone who's been consumed by banking fears in recent days. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: UBS gets a new (old) Group CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This suggests UBS is prioritizing stability as it proceeds with its merger with Credit Suisse. The rise in yields suggests traders are growing confident the banking turmoil is subsiding, and they're turning their attention back to inflation. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Reactions: Canada 2023/24 budget deficit to jump, Ottawa to boost spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

JULES BOUDREAU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MACKENZIE INVESTMENTS"The surprise was more on the revenue side more than the spending side. Prior to this budget we were not eligible for the carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) investment tax credit, but they have now broadened the eligibility parameters." "The big open question, heading into this budget was how was Canada going to react to the Inflation Reduction Act ... MARK ZACHARIAS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF CLEAN ENERGY CANADA"We thought today's budget was generally excellent and it sets Canada on a path for prosperity. "The investment tax credits for clean tech manufacturing positions Canada as a leader, particularly in zero-emissions vehicles."

SummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.10%, S&P 0.17%, Nasdaq 0.22%March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures slipped on Tuesday as Treasury yields rose amid easing worries about a banking crisis following First Citizens BancShares' U.S. regulator-backed deal for failed Silicon Valley Bank. Shares of First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) fell 1% in premarket trading after surging more than 50% on Monday following its deal to acquire the deposits and loans of failed Silicon Valley Bank. Regional banks also rose, led by First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) 2.2% gain after a 12% rally on Monday. Later in the day, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on "bank oversight" in the first of several hearings on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. ET, Dow e-minis were down 31 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 6.75 points, or 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 27.75 points, or 0.22%.

☆ US consumer confidence rises; house price inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 104.2 this month from a reading of 103.4 in February. Housing affordability, which deteriorated as mortgage rates surged in response to the Fed's fight against inflation, is starting to gradually improve as house price gains continue to moderate. Annual house price growth remained strong in the Southeast, with double-digit gains in Miami and Tampa. The region had experienced rapid house price increases in prior years. Goods trade balanceThe Commerce Department also reported that wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in February after falling 0.5% in January.

Bank shares rebounded sharply on Monday after First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) said it would acquire the deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank, whose collapse earlier this month sparked a selloff in the sector. "The fact that we've got answers on Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse means that we have more answers than questions," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in Boston. Lawmakers are expected to put U.S. bank regulators on the defensive over the unexpected failures of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank when they testify before Congress later on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Dow rose on Monday after the SVB deal was announced, while the Nasdaq Composite closed lower, led by a decline in technology-related stocks. The S&P index recorded five new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 13 new highs and 40 new lows.

☆ Powell is leader of the free world – for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

As former President Donald Trump will attest, Powell will do what he thinks it’s right. This month, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, a left-wing firebrand, went on TV and called Powell a “dangerous man,” saying she doesn’t think that he should be Fed Chair. CNN television host Jake Tapper asked her if she had told Biden that Powell should be fired. Then Trump called Powell “a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch.” Trump wanted economic growth. Powell resisted and later responded saying that the Fed chair, more than anyone else, needs to be free from political pressures.

☆ The CFTC's suit against Binance marks a deepening crackdown on the crypto industry
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

All this comes just days after the SEC charged a spate of high-profile individuals for fraud and crypto market manipulation. That comes months after the total crypto market value saw about $2 trillion erased in a brutal plunge in token prices. The SEC also warned that the platforms investors use to get involved in crypto aren't quite airtight, in the regulator's view. In other news:FILE PHOTO: A participant stands near a logo of World Bank at the International Monetary Fund - World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua Reuters2. The World Bank just warned that this could be the start of a "lost decade" for global economic growth.

☆ US consumer confidence improved in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The business group’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 104.2 in March from an upwardly revised reading of 103.4 the month before. The March headline index saw a boost from consumers’ improved levels of confidence for the six-month-ahead time frame. The Expectations Index increased to 73 from 70.4 in February, while the Present Situation Index dipped to 151.1 from 153. The Conference Board’s confidence index and the University of Michigan’s twice-a-month consumer sentiment index are two leading gauges of consumers’ attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. Although the two indexes typically track similarly over time, the consumer confidence index is more influenced by employment and labor market conditions, while the Michigan sentiment index has a greater emphasis on household finances and the impact of inflation.

☆ Stock futures are flat on Monday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures inched higher in overnight trading after the S&P 500 posted its third positive session in a row and banking sector concerns continued to ease. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.11% each. Investors fought to extend last week's gains, but tech shares came under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 194.55 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.16%. Beaten-up regional banking stocks, including First Republic , climbed along with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE ).

☆ US stocks trade mixed as bank fears ebb with sale of SVB assets to First Citizens
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mixed on Monday as markets assessed the latest banking sector news. Reports over the weekend of further government support for banks sent shares higher on Monday. A Senate hearing on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is slated for this week. First Citizens will acquire $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bank's assets for a $16.5 billion discount. The news spurred a rebound in regional bank stocks, which have been under pressure since SVB imploded earlier this month.

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