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Dollar eases as Fed clues awaited; bitcoin hits 2-year high
  + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. The U.S. dollar drifted weaker on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for more crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The U.S. dollar drifted weaker on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for more crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The euro was firm following Friday's 0.33% advance, with a European Central Bank, or ECB, policy decision looming on Thursday. That also weighed on Treasury yields, removing additional support for the dollar, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding as low as 4.178% for the first time in two weeks.
Persons: Bias, Jerome Powell's, Kazuo Ueda, Hajime Takata, Christine Lagarde's, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, European Central Bank, Bank of, Treasury, Congress, Westpac, ECB Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French
Dollar droops as key U.S. data looms; yen firms on CPI beat
  + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar traded on the back foot on Tuesday, as markets looked ahead to a week of key U.S. economic data that will provide fresh signals on how soon the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates. The dollar traded on the back foot on Tuesday, as markets looked ahead to a week of key U.S. economic data that will provide fresh signals on how soon the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers including the yen and euro, traded flat at 103.78 early in Asian time, following a 0.17% slide on Monday. U.S. durable goods data is due later on Tuesday, while January's U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released Thursday. The dollar slipped 0.1% to 150.54 yen as a slightly hotter-than-expected reading for Japan's January consumer price index kept the BOJ on track to exit negative interest rate policy as soon as next month.
Persons: CME's, Richard Franulovich, Cryptocurrency bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan's, U.S, January's, New Zealand, Aussie, Traders, Reserve Bank of New, MicroStrategy Inc Locations: January's U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
Dollar firms ahead of busy data week with U.S. inflation in focus
  + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar was on the front foot on Monday ahead of a packed week filled with key economic releases that will provide further clues on the global interest rate outlook, with a U.S. inflation reading taking center stage. The dollar was on the front foot on Monday ahead of a packed week filled with key economic releases that will provide further clues on the global interest rate outlook, with a U.S. inflation reading taking center stage. The kiwi had risen 1.2% last week, helped by broad dollar weakness and the risk of a rate hike from the RBNZ on Wednesday. "If anything, the (data) may be stronger than markets currently expect, and that will likely give a modest boost to the dollar," said CBA's Kong. "But at the same time, any gains in the dollar will likely be pretty modest.
Persons: Carol Kong, Sterling, Jane Foley, CBA's Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of Japan's, U.S, Rabobank, U.S . Commodity Futures, Fed Locations: Japan, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, China, Asia, U.S
Japan's Nikkei 225 index , a price-weighted index of 225 Japanese stocks, has also hit an historic high. A few months before that, on December 29, 1989, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index hit an historic high that stood until this week. That's about the amount the U.S. stock market dropped at the start of the Great Depression, from 1929 to 1932. .N225 5Y mountain Nikkei 225 Index in past five years. The Japanese stock market took 20 years.
Persons: it's, Japan's, Minoru Isutani, Arnold Palmer, Richard Ferris, Peter Ueberroth, Clint Eastwood, Nori, Bart Wakabayashi Organizations: Nikkei, CNBC, Japan's Nikkei, Mitsubishi, Rockefeller Center, Lone Cypress Company, Sumitomo Bank, Taiheiyo, Lone Cypress, Toyota, Honda, Sony, Hitachi, Nintendo, Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan Hedged Equity, Dow Jones, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Retailing, Softbank, Vision Fund, Foreign, Bank of Japan, White Oak Capital, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, New York, Japanese, California, Japan, U.S, Singapore
The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on January 30, 2017. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. Nearly the same proportion of economists, 76%, also expect the BOJ to scrap yield curve control at that meeting, with almost all saying ultra-loose monetary conditions will end then, just months before many major central banks are expected to start cutting rates. The BOJ is on track to end negative interest rates in coming months despite Japan's economy slipping into a recession, sources have previously told Reuters.
Persons: Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of, Reuters, Bank of, Nikko Securities, Daiwa Securities, D Asset Management Locations: Tokyo, The Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan
Asia-Pacific markets are set to fall Wednesday, tracking Wall Street losses. Japan's Nikkei 225 is set to fall as investors assess the country's trade data and souring business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 38,260 and its counterpart in Osaka was at 38,280 against the index's last close of 38,363.61. Japanese manufacturers' business confidence soured in February, tumbling to -1 compared to the previous month's reading of 6, according to the Reuters Tankan poll. The Reuters monthly poll is considered to be a leading indicator of the Bank of Japan's official survey.
Organizations: Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Japan's Locations: Asia, Pacific, Australia, Chicago, Osaka, Japan, Germany
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is under pressure to stem yen depreciation driven by the divergence between high U.S. interest rates and Japan's ultra easy policy. Yet, he is also constricted by high inflation that BOJ policymakers still deem unsustainable, even as it crimped domestic demand and tipped the economy into a technical recession. She previously served as a member of BOJ policy board from 2011 to 2016, helping to make monetary policy decisions. At its January meeting, the BOJ decided unanimously to keep short-term interest rates at -0.1%. BOJ policymakers have been cautious and fastidious with their primary task: reflating an economy that's been mired in decades of deflationary pressures.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Sayuri Shirai, CNBC's, dousing, BOJ, Shirai Organizations: Istock, Getty, Bank of Japan, Germany, Keio University Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Japan has lost its spot as the world's third-largest economy to Germany, as the Asian giant unexpectedly slipped into recession. Fourth quarter GDP sharply missed forecasts for a 1.4% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP slipped 0.1%, compared with a 0.3% rise expected in the Reuters poll. Germany, on the other hand, saw its nominal GDP grow 6.3% to reach 4.12 trillion euros, or $4.46 trillion based on last year's average exchange rate. Nominal GDP measures the value of output in current dollars, without adjusting for inflation.
Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Germany, Bank of Japan
BANGKOK (AP) — Shares rose in Asia on Thursday after Wall Street stocks recovered much of their sharp losses from a day before. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 1% to 5,000.62, clawing back more than two-thirds of its loss from Tuesday. It was the single strongest force lifting the S&P 500 index. Most companies in the S&P 500 have been topping analysts’ forecasts for the last three months of 2023. Hopes for stronger growth in 2024 from a solid economy have been another reason the S&P 500 has set 10 records already this year.
Persons: Australia's, Taiwan’s Taiex, India's Sensex, Russell, Lyft, Airbnb Organizations: Wall, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nvidia, Technologies, Akamai Technologies, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Seoul, Japan, Britain, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Italy, U.S
Two of the world's biggest economies are officially in recession, per new figures published Thursday. Meanwhile, UK growth shrank for the second straight quarter — just months ahead of a key election. Japan and the UK are both officially in recession, according to figures published Thursday, after Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell for two consecutive quarters to close out 2023. UK: Cost-of-living crisis, weak spendingBritain also got some bad economic news Thursday, as official data showed its economy shrank by 0.3% between October and December — its second straight quarterly contraction. That officially put the UK into recession.
Persons: , Dow Jones, It's, juicier, Goldman Sachs, Rishi Sunak Organizations: Service, Gross, Dow, Bank of, Britain, Bank of England’s, European Union, Conservatives, Labour Party, Politico Locations: Japan, Germany, China, European
That may relieve pressure on the central bank to alter its longstanding ultra-lax monetary policy and raise its benchmark interest rate from minus 0.1%. Inflation has been cooling enough that the Federal Reserve has hinted it may cut its main interest rate several times this year. Reports showing the U.S. economy and job market remain remarkably solid, along with some comments from Fed officials, have been forcing the delays. In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude rose 27 cents to $77.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose to 149.67 Japanese yen from 149.34 yen.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Australia's, Korea's Kospi, ” Yeap Jun Rong, that’s Organizations: TOKYO, CAC, FTSE, Dow Jones, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, IG, Federal Reserve, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: Asia, China , Hong Kong, Taiwan, United States
Dollar nears 150 yen ahead of US inflation test; bitcoin buoyant
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar flirted with the psychological threshold of 150 yen on Tuesday and held broadly steady ahead of a key reading on U.S. inflation due later in the day, while bitcoin hovered around the $50,000 mark for a second day running. The greenback last bought 149.39 yen, edging higher toward the closely-watched 150 level that analysts said would likely trigger further jawboning from Japanese officials in an attempt to support the currency. The projected rise in inflation three years from now dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2020, from December's 2.6%. Analysts said the latest boost to bitcoin comes ahead of its halving event, which will cut the reward for successfully mining a bitcoin block in half. The expectation of rate cuts certainly helps, but it doesn't explain what's really set fire to bitcoin over the past four, five sessions," said IG's Sycamore.
Persons: pare, that's, Tony Sycamore, It's, Kyle Rodda Organizations: greenback, Bank of, IG, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S ., New Zealand, U.S, bitcoin Locations: Asia, China, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, U.S, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December's, Europe
What are zombie companies? Japan's "zombie" problem has been around for a long time, said William Pesek, author of the book "Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decades." Raising the borrowing cost will put these zombie companies at risk of bankruptcy and bailouts, which could have a broader impact on the economy if there are job losses. "But the aid program has led to an increase in the number of 'zombie' companies that would otherwise have been unable to continue operating," the report added. Japan's stock markets have also been testing new highs since 2023, and higher interest rates could halt the bull run.
Persons: Adam Pretty, William Pesek, we've, Pesek, CNBC's Martin Soong, Warren Buffett's, Warren Buffett, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda Organizations: Getty, Bank of Japan, Tide, Asia Times, Japan Times, CNBC, Nikkei Locations: TOKYO, JAPAN, Roppongi Hills, Tokyo, Japan, Asia
Yen near 10-week low, dollar buoyant as traders adjust rate bets
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen wallowed near a 10-week low on Friday, while the dollar ground towards a fourth weekly advance as traders dialed back bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, will raise interest rates and how soon the Federal Reserve will cut them. The yen wallowed near a 10-week low on Friday, while the dollar ground towards a fourth weekly advance as traders dialed back bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan, or BOJ, will raise interest rates and how soon the Federal Reserve will cut them. The yen was little changed at 149.315 per dollar in early Asian trading, after dipping to 149.48 late in the previous session for the first time since Nov. 27. Both currencies have been relatively resilient with officials from the European Central Bank and Bank of England pushing back against market wagers on early rate reductions. New Zealand's dollar gained 0.34% to $0.6117, supported by bets for a delayed start to Reserve Bank rate cuts - or even the potential for further hikes - after data this week showed a stronger-than-forecast jobs market.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Shunichi Suzuki, Jerome Powell, FOMC, Richard Franulovich, Sharon Zollner, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, BOJ, Japanese Finance, Traders, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Reserve, ANZ Locations: Tokyo
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Milestone crossedThe benchmark S&P 500 hit the 5,000 level for the first time on Thursday, but closed just under the milestone. Japan's zombie problemsDespite strong performance since the beginning of 2023, Japan's stock market faces several issues over zombie firms. [Pro] Bypassing the Magnificent 7Morningstar's chief markets strategist David Sekera highlighted that the Magnificent Seven stocks "are starting to run out of steam."
Persons: Dow, Sissie Hsiao, Bard, David Sekera Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Google, Bard, Gemini, Bank of Japan
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. CEOs turn positive on the economy
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
US President Joe Biden speaks about the economy and the deal between the United Auto Workers (UAW) Union and the big-three automakers, in Belvidere, Illinois, on November 9, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nikkei fresh highsJapan's Nikkei hit new highs on Friday, while most markets in the region were either fully or partially closed for Lunar New Year holidays. Biden pushes backU.S. President Joe Biden in a White House address said his "memory is fine," and disputed a special counsel's claims that he willfully retained classified material at his Delaware home.
Persons: Joe Biden, Dow, Sissie Hsiao, Bard, Biden, Donald Trump, David Sekera Organizations: United Auto Workers, UAW, Union, CNBC, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Google, Bard, Gemini, Bank of Japan, Nevada Republican, NBC Locations: Belvidere , Illinois, Delaware
In this photo illustration, a person is seen holding 100, 50, and 5 US dollar bills in his hand. The U.S. dollar was trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders digested less dovish remarks from policymakers overnight and looked ahead to fresh economic data from the United States. Attention was also on inflation data out of China in the Asian morning amid concerns about deflation in the world's second-largest economy. Forecasts suggest mixed signals, with year-on-year consumer price deflation expected to have intensified in January but month-over-month prices up at the fastest pace in a year. The offshore Chinese yuan was down 0.11% to $7.2036 per dollar ahead of the data.
Persons: Susan Collins, Tony Sycamore, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang Organizations: U.S, Boston, Traders, IG, Bank of, DBS Locations: United States, China, Asia
Lamp posts in front of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) building in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open ahead of the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia later Tuesday. Twenty-nine economists polled by Reuters unanimously expect the RBA to hold rates at 4.35%. In Japan, household spending dipped more than expected in December, falling 2.5% year on year compared with the 2.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. The Bank of Japan has said sustainable wage increases are one of the prerequisites for unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy.
Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Bank of Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Bank of Japan
Dollar poised for weekly decline; US jobs data up next
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar index was last at 103.02 and on track for its first weekly decline for the year. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.07% to $0.6149 and was on track for a weekly rise of nearly 1%, its best performance in over a month. It was poised for a weekly gain of nearly 1.3%, its best week in over a month. That highlighted a growing view within the board that conditions were falling in place to soon pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory, which would be Japan's first interest rate hike since 2007. Data on Thursday showed euro zone inflation eased as expected last month but underlying price pressures fell less than forecast, likely boosting the European Central Bank's argument that rate cuts should not be rushed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ray Attrill, Raf Choudhury, BoE, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Friday's, Analysts, Bank of Japan's, Bank of England, Monetary, European Locations: Abrdn, U.S
Dollar holds firm before Fed rates decision
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
On the day, the dollar index was up 0.1% to 103.51, just below Monday's 103.82 which matched last week's seven-week high. The Federal Reserve meanwhile is expected to hold U.S. interest rates steady on Wednesday but flag cuts are coming by dropping language indicating it is weighing further hikes. Interest rate futures price a roughly 43% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down from 73% at the start of the year. A slowdown in Germany would foreshadow the same in Eurozone numbers due on Thursday and reinforce market expectations that European policymakers could start rate cuts earlier than the ECB has signalled. Expectations of interest rate cuts in China have driven a strong rally in the bond market this month while the yuan has been squeezed by flight from China's crumbling equity markets.
Persons: Jerome, Powell, Dane Cekov Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, French EU, ECB, Bank of Locations: U.S, Germany, China
Dollar eyes monthly gain as markets look to Fed
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. Later, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold U.S. interest rates steady but flag cuts are coming by dropping language indicating it is weighing further hikes. Interest rate futures price a roughly 43% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down from 73% at the start of the year. "A 100% probability of a rate cut would point to euro/dollar at $1.1080, while a rate cut that is fully ruled out for March would point the way to euro/dollar at $1.0660," he said. Expectations of interest rate cuts in China have driven a strong rally in the bond market this month while the yuan has been squeezed by flight from China's crumbling equity markets.
Persons: Sterling, Alan Ruskin Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China
Japan's Nikkei 225 will re-take record highs: Schroders
  + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's Nikkei 225 will re-take record highs with momentum to continue: SchrodersRemi Olu-Pitan of Schroders discusses the outlook for the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy, and explains why she sees further upside to the Japanese equity market.
Persons: Remi Olu, Schroders Organizations: Bank of
Thursday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 0.4% to 4,894.16 and set a record for a fifth straight day. IBM helped lead the market with a gain of 9.5% after it reported a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The electric-vehicle maker reported earnings and revenue that fell short of forecasts and warned of lower sales growth this year. Such a resilient economy should drive profits for companies, which are one of the main inputs that set stock prices. On the losing end of Wall Street, Humana tumbled 11.7% after the insurer reported worse results for the end of 2023 than expected.
Persons: ” Robert Carnell, Seng, Tesla, , Jamie Cox Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, ING, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, IBM, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Harris Financial, Treasury, . American Airlines, Humana, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, Australia, Wall
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