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Opinion | Is the Fed Falling Prey to Groupthink?
  + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
If you’re looking to argue that the Fed suffers from too much unanimity, the inflationary surge of 2022 looks like evidence. In speeches, various members of the committee had been expressing concerns about inflation, but they weren’t voting that way. She worked at the Fed for 25 years in stints between 1984 and 2022, including one writing up the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Meade said one reason dissents are few is that “the meetings aren’t about today, they’re about tomorrow.” Committee meetings occur eight times a year. If a voter feels uncomfortable with the (unanimous) rate decision, that person will try to rally support for a different path at future meetings.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis, Ellen Meade, , ” Meade, Levin, Meade Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Duke University, Fed, Open
London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.
Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, , Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
As of September, US credit-card delinquency rates were at the highest rate in a decade. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said 3.2% of card balances were at least 30 days past due. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In the second quarter of 2021, credit card delinquency rates were at historic lows.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Service, Philadelphia, Business
Credit card delinquencies surpass pre-pandemic levels
  + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN —More Americans are buckling under the weight of mounting credit card debt. The Philadelphia Fed analyzed consumer credit card and mortgage data that large banks provide to the Federal Reserve on a quarterly basis. As such, a greater share of people are revolving all or part of their credit card balance. This nearly three-year stretch of high inflation and strong consumer spending has helped to send consumer debt — especially credit card balances — ballooning. It’s typically practical matters — that surprise medical bill, unexpected home or car repair, and day-to-day expenses — that get people into credit card debt, Rossman said.
Persons: New York CNN —, Gene Huang, Anna Veksler, , Ted Rossman, Bankrate, Rossman, “ That’s, it’s, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, Philly Fed, CNN Business Locations: New York
Buy now, pay later plans gained popularity in 2023 as an alternative to high-interest credit cards. Buy now, pay later use surged recently and those bills are now dueThe use of buy now, pay later plans skyrocketed during the 2023 holiday season. According to Adobe, which tracks online sales, buy now, pay later plans use was up 47% on Black Friday and 43% on Cyber Monday. According to PYMNTS' survey, 39.6% of respondents used buy now, pay later plans for clothing and accessories and 33.7% used them for groceries. Buy now, pay later debt can be advantageous if used correctly.
Persons: , Rather, Peter Cade, PYMNTS, Tim Quinlan, Shannon Seery Grein, Selcuk, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Maria Bartiromo, Luschini, Warren Buffett, Buffett, I've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Adobe, Household Economics, Science Research Network, Economic, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Wells, US Locations: Wells Fargo
Consumer spending remained remarkably resilient throughout 2023, even in the face of prolonged inflation and high interest rates. "Nonetheless, those tailwinds are not necessarily sustainable," Kleinhenz said in the January issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review, released Tuesday. Americans are racking up more 'phantom debt'56 million Americans have been in credit card debt for over a yearRecent reports already show signs of strain. In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, surpassing $1.08 trillion, according to the latest quarterly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month and fewer are able to pay off their balances in full.
Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: National Retail Federation, Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Economist Alberto Musalem was named the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on Thursday. The St. Louis Fed representative is an alternate member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and will vote in 2025. St. Louis Fed First Vice President Kathy O'Neill has been holding the position in the interim. "Alberto will be an outstanding president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed," said St. Louis Fed director Carolyn Chism Hardy, president and CEO of Chism Hardy Investments and deputy chair of the bank's search committee. "I am deeply honored to serve as the next president of the St. Louis Fed and grateful for the opportunity to promote a strong, resilient and inclusive economy," Musalem said.
Persons: Alberto Musalem, Louis, Musalem, James Bullard, Kathy O'Neill, Alberto, Louis Fed, Carolyn Chism Hardy, Chism, Hardy, Paul Tudor Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Purdue University, Louis Fed, Market, Investments, Evince Asset Management, New York Fed, Tudor Investment Corp, Eighth, CNBC PRO Locations: St
Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal
Morning Bid: Small caps pick up baton, China rating hit
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. The likes of Microsoft (MSFT.O), Apple (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O) fell back over 1%, pressured by a modest bounceback in U.S. Treasury yields. China's blue-chip stocks slumped to their lowest since February 2019 amid fears of a possible cut to China's sovereign credit rating cut after Moody's outlook reduction. By Mike Dolan, Editing by Bernadette Baum; <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Russell, that's, Moody's, Isabel Schnabel, Michael Gibson, Christine Laggard, Mongo, Zero Fox, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Barclays, Qatar, P Global, Federal, Division, Supervision, Financial Innovation, Descartes Systems, Health, Powell Industries, Dave, Buster's Entertainment, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Global, York, Treasuries, Europe
Morning Bid: RBA holds and the dollar pauses, too
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Pedestrians walk past the main entrance to the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, October 3, 2016. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets are pricing in bigger rate cuts by the Fed next year than by any other major or emerging market central bank. But will the Fed cut rates by 125 basis points next year? Doubts about that prospect have for now put the brakes on dollar selling. Gold , which shot to a record high in Asia's notoriously thin morning hours on Monday, has recoiled sharply.
Persons: David Gray, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Bank, Aussie, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, U.S, Europe, Tokyo
SINGAPORE, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks slipped to three-week lows on Tuesday while bonds and the dollar steadied as investors tempered expectations for cuts to U.S. interest rates and waited on U.S. jobs data. The Australian dollar fell 0.5% after the central bank left interest rates on hold, as expected, and emphasised that the future direction rates would depend on data. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was dragged 1% lower to a three-week trough, mostly thanks to falling chipmaking stocks. Treasuries had come under a little pressure overnight as traders calibrated pretty aggressive pricing for U.S. interest rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold and said, as it had a month ago, that future rate settings would depend on data.
Persons: Treasuries, Kim Coghill Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, ANZ, New, Reserve Bank of Australia, Brent, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Tokyo, China
Some of these semi-retired workers are gig drivers for companies like Uber and DoorDash. Over half of the missing gig workers were aged 60 or older, and over 40% of them described themselves as "retired." Many of these semi-retired workers are gig drivers for companies like Uber and DoorDash. Business Insider previously spoke with six gig drivers about why they're driving during their retirement and the strategies they're using to make money. As her pay-per-ride declines and the cost of maintenance skyrockets, she's been forced to find other types of gig work.
Persons: Uber, , boomers, didn't, Robert A, Peterson, John Fleming, Charles Rosenblatt, Jeff Hoenig, he'd, Jeff Hoenig Jeff Hoenig, Wesley Johnson, San Francisco Uber, Johnson, Omar Ford, Omar Ford Omar Ford Ford, he's, Germaine, she's, it's, Bill, Rich Organizations: Service, Hebrew University, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Survey, AARP, The University of Texas, Business, Hertz, Security, North Carolina, BI, Arizona Uber, Uber, Social Locations: Austin, Myrtle Beach , South Carolina, San Francisco, South Florida, New York City, Florida, North, Arizona
Despite threats to job security such as layoffs, the rise of return-to-office mandates, and the prospect of artificial intelligence taking over jobs, workers have realized what's akin to letting a genie out of the bottle: Their jobs don't have to be just jobs. The push to make jobs back into careers, and good jobs, is just beginning. "And we've also seen just the massive gap between CEO salaries and frontline worker pay." Even so, there's been what Bruno called a "national consciousness raising" around what a quality job is. And thinking toward a future full of quality jobs is a message workers are taking to heart.
Persons: Ingrid Vilorio, She's, Vilorio, It's, Rob Bruno, Bruno, what's, , Julie Su, Biden, Biden administration's, Su, there's, Zers —, Federal Reserve Banks, Keith Wardrip, Wardrip Organizations: University of Illinois, Workers, Treasury Department, Gallup, United Auto Workers, BI, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Locations: California, University of Illinois Urbana, Champaign, America, Philadelphia, Atlanta
I'm a Gen Zer who worked at my 9-to-5 before the pandemic, and found the schedule soul-crushing. The shift to remote work suddenly meant I had time to cook, exercise, and socialize. AdvertisementThere's been a whole lot of buzz recently about Gen Zers discovering the bleak realities of a 9-to-5 schedule. I graduated college in 2019, and went almost immediately into a 9-to-5 schedule. Like other Gen Zers, I enjoy getting face time with my coworkers, and, honestly, the free food.
Persons: Zer, , There's, Zers, Herman Melville's, Scrivener, We've, Nick Bloom, Bloom, I'd, They're, It's, that's Organizations: Service, Business, University of West, Federal Reserve Bank of New, of Labor Statistics, Stanford University, Insider Locations: York City, University of West England, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, York
However, credit card balances are especially worrisome because they are going to keep getting worse. That means the average American could be spending $1,140 every year on credit card interest and fees alone. Americans have been accruing a lot of credit card debt at a terrible timeAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Americans had nearly $1.1 trillion in credit card debt in the third quarter of this year. Credit card interest rates, which had already been at their highest level since the mid-1990s, started soaring even higher. But with credit card debt going through the roof, the blissful spending could come to a screeching halt.
Persons: couldn't, , Gary Coronado, LendingTree, Ted Rossman, Biden Organizations: Service, SoFi Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Board, Fed, New York, New York Fed, Consumer Financial, CNN, Household Economics Locations: WalletHub, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delinquencies
Dollar stems decline after heavy November selloff
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in Chicago on October 18, 2022. The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday and hovered near a one-week high against major peers, while bitcoin extended its momentum on optimism that U.S. regulators could soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds. The euro , meanwhile, languished near a three-week low hit on Monday and last traded $1.0840, while the dollar index stood near a more than one-week high and was last at 103.59. Analysts say the greenback's move higher was in part due to a reversal of its heavy selloff in recent weeks, which saw the dollar index falling some 3% in November, its steepest monthly decline in a year. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last stood at $41,873, not far from the previous session's peak of $42,404, its highest level since April 2022.
Persons: bitcoin, Sean Callow, Thierry Wizman, Bitcoin, Nexo, Antoni Trenchev Organizations: U.S, Westpac, Traders, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Locations: Chicago, Asia, Tokyo, Reserve Bank of Australia
Two women walk next to the Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in central Sydney, Australia February 6, 2018. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday as expected, buying it more time to assess the state of the economy and to determine whether further hikes might be needed next year. Wrapping up its December policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%, adding economic data received since November had been broadly in line with expectations. "Holding the cash rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market," RBA Governor Michele Bullock said. She has since warned that inflation has become increasingly driven by domestic demand, requiring a more "substantial" response from interest rates.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia
A worker is reflected in a wall of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) head office in central Sydney, Australia, March 1, 2016. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The relative U.S. interest rate outlook right now fits the weaker dollar narrative - futures markets have the Fed cutting rates next year more than any major or emerging market central bank. And even if the Fed does go that far, other central banks are sure to lower their policy rates more than markets are currently predicting. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia interest rate decision- Japan - Tokyo inflation (November)- South Korea inflation (November)By Jamie McGeever Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: David Gray, Michele Bowman's, Philip Lowe, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Reserve Bank of, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Asia, masse, Tokyo
Asia-Pacific markets were set to start the final month of this year on a stronger note, with investors awaiting a slew of key economic data Tuesday and inflation readings later this week. Inflation reading for Tokyo will be released Tuesday, which is widely seen as a leading indicator for nationwide trends. South Korea inflation numbers will also be out the same day. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its final meeting for the year tomorrow, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the bank to hold rates at 4.35%.
Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, Tokyo, Korea
[1/2] A man passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Underlying inflation pressures eased in October compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said that its Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation reading for October stood at 2.6%, from September’s 2.88%. The NY Fed MCT index is designed to measure inflation persistence and how broadly price pressures are changing. The NY Fed MCT reading has tracked a broader retreat in price pressures.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Powell, Williams, Michael S, Mark Porter, Bill Berkrot Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, NY, New York Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s
Dec 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. The dollar shed 3% in November, its biggest monthly fall in a year, and last week fell for a third week in a row. Many will argue that the U.S. bond and rates markets have gotten far too carried away, and that the Fed will not ease so quickly and aggressively next year. But Fed policymakers are now in their 'blackout period' ahead of the December 12-13 policy meeting. In stark contrast to the Fed, rates futures markets are barely pricing in any rate cuts from the RBA next year at all.
Persons: Wall, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Treasury, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea
Australia's Greens to investigate supermarket 'price gouging'
  + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
[1/2] People walk past a Woolworths supermarket following the easing of restrictions implemented to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Sydney, Australia, June 16, 2020. REUTERS/Loren Elliott Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Australia's Greens party said on Sunday it would lead a parliamentary inquiry into "price gouging" by major supermarkets as the country grapples with high costs of living. "It will also assess the rise in essential item prices, the validity of discounts offered, and the inflation of profits during economic hardship," added McKim, accusing supermarkets of "price gouging" during "Australia's cost of living crisis". "Construction costs, energy prices, the cost of logistics and packaging have all risen", the spokesperson said. A Woolworths spokesperson said the company was "working to deliver relief" on grocery bills.
Persons: Loren Elliott, Nick McKim, McKim, Competition Andrew Leigh, Leigh, Sam McKeith, Lincoln Organizations: Woolworths, REUTERS, Rights, Australia's Greens, Greens, Coles, Competition, Labor, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia
"We were an early adopter," said Morgan, who served as past president for Tennessee Jump$tart, an independent affiliate of the national Jump$tart Coalition for Personal Financial Literacy, which championed the policy. While financial literacy has long been a priority, the Covid-19 pandemic sparked a wave of state-level legislation nationwide, said Morgan, who also served on the board of the Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission. "The work is never done," said Bill Parker, director of the Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission, which aims to incorporate personal finance into schools "as early as possible." Bill Parker Director of the Tennessee Financial Literacy CommissionThe Commission has outlined priorities in its five-year strategic plan, which has included thought leadership and state-level advocacy for expanded financial literacy programming. Numerous studies have highlighted the benefits of teaching children financial literacy at an early age.
Persons: chris Ryan, Istock, Jackie Morgan, Morgan, We've, there's, Bill Parker, Parker Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's, Tennessee, Tennessee Financial Literacy, U.S, Finance, Council for Economic Education, Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission, Tennessee Financial Locations: , Tennessee, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Nashville, U.S, , Tennessee
[1/2] FILE PHOTO: A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas//o/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The central banks of India and England on Friday signed an agreement on information exchange for settlement of bond trades, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. In India, bonds are settled through the Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL). The two central banks have also established a framework for the BoE to rely on the Indian central bank's regulatory and supervisory activities, while safeguarding the United Kingdom's financial stability, the RBI said. This meant that European banks had to settle their India-based trades through banks based in other jurisdictions.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, BoE, CCIL, Siddhi Nayak, Jayshree, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Sohini Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of India, Clearing Corporation of India, Bank of England, United, European Securities and Markets Authority, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, England
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