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Auto stocks plunged 3.45% as results disappointed, while travel stocks traded 1.7% lower. European stock markets opened sharply lower Thursday as attention remains on third-quarter earnings and government bond yields. Results are out from a slew of companies including Standard Chartered, BNP Paribas, TotalEnergies, Volvo Cars, Novozymes, Volkswagen, Carrefour, Saab and Wacker Chemie. Meanwhile, monetary policy decisions are due from the European Central Bank — for which markets have priced in a more than 98% likelihood of a hold in interest rates — and the central bank of Turkey, from which economists polled by Reuters anticipate a 500 basis point hike to 35%. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield hit a fresh 10-year high ahead of a central bank meeting next week, according to Reuters data.
Organizations: Chartered, Standard Chartered, BNP, TotalEnergies, Volvo, Volkswagen, Carrefour, Saab, Wacker Chemie, Investors, Facebook, Meta, European Central Bank —, Reuters, Treasury Locations: London, Turkey, Asia, Pacific
The US economy is headed for a recession, but it's likely to be milder than prior slumps, Apollo's chief economist said. That's because any potential slowdown this time around would be "engineered" by the Fed, Torsten Sløk told CNBC. When recession arrives, the Fed can undo the measures it took that initially slowed the economy, he added. Another recession is coming, but this time around the culprit is also the savior, making it a lot less harmful, according to Apollo Management's chief economist, Torsten Sløk. "Here today, this is all engineered by the Fed, the slowdown," Sløk said.
Persons: Torsten Sløk, , Apollo, Sløk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Fed Locations: It's
European flags are seen in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. Price pressures are easing and the economy is slowing to a point that a recession may already be underway, making any further rate hikes increasingly unlikely. Meeting in Athens for the first time in over a decade, the Governing Council is expected to have an easy time deciding on rates. Others argue that growth prospects are deteriorating so quickly that the ECB would be better served with a "neutral" guidance, emphasizing data dependency. This suggests that any change in the scheme will be gradual, so the ECB can protect Italy as long as possible.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Martin Wolburg, Wolburg, Frederik Ducrozet, reinvestments, Balazs Koranyi, Emelia Sithole Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, Generali Investments, Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, Athens, Italy
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), speaks during an ECB press conference in July. Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesFRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets this week in Athens. With recent bond market volatility, talk of an earlier exit from its quantitative tightening program might have to be postponed. Inflation declineThe inflation print in September showed a decline to 4.3% down from 5.2% in August according to Eurostat. That's faster than expected but upside risks to inflation prevail through wage effects and the threat of a higher oil price.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dirk Schumacher, Downside Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Getty, FRANKFURT, Eurostat Locations: Athens, Israel, Frankfurt
The same inevitable supply-and-demand dynamic is about to wash over us again with large language models and generative AI. AI models are trained on masses of data from the past. Humans are good at learning quickly from a small amount of data, while AI models need mountains of information to train on. Soon, human content creators will be vying for attention with content generated by AI models. 'Utility, value and signaling'Hartz, a venture capitalist who now chairs Eventbrite's board, says successful technologists will continue to spend heavily on human experiences.
Persons: , Kevin Hartz, Eventbrite, Taylor Swift, Marc Andreessen, Hartz, John Barone, you'll, Sal Khan, That's, Gates, Michael Larson, Elon Musk's, Morgan Stanley, Jared Birchall, Noam Brown, He's, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg Organizations: Service, Khan Academy, Menlo School, Sigma, Bloomberg, Meta, OpenAI, Google, Amazon Locations: GPT, Fiji, Palo Alto, Silicon, Menlo
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 5%
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 5.0% on Monday, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week. The run-up in yields on the 10-year Treasury bond, seen as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty and a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world, has been driven by investors pricing in stronger U.S. growth as well as fiscal slippage. The 10-year yield touched 5.004% on Monday, up around 8 basis points (bps) on the day. Treasury borrowing costs have climbed, and a divided Congress has bickered over next year's spending bills while using stopgap measures to avert a shutdown of government operations. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury was last up 4 bps at 5.125%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Kyle Rodda, Vidya Ranganathan, Harry Robertson, Kevin Buckland, Neil Fullick, Alun John Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Israel
ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany
On Friday, the S & P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 17. If the total-return version of the index closes below that level for five straight days, then the $2 billion Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF (PTLC) will automatically sell some of its all-stock portfolio to shift to a 50-50 split between equities and Treasury bills. And if the 200-day moving average itself then starts to fall, the fund will go to 100% T-bills. Still, the fund's rule tied to the 200-day moving average is an example of how the move of a stock or index across a widely-followed indicator can cause volatility. Year to date, the fund is up just under 5% — well below the gain of more than 11% for the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) .
Persons: rebalance, Sean O'Hara, O'Hara Organizations: Trust, ETF Distributors, Pacer, Nasdaq Locations: technologystocks
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Leveraged funds trading U.S. Treasuries futures have increased their record net short position across the curve, which will do little to soothe growing concerns among regulators about the potential financial stability risks these bets pose. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts. That's a whisker from the two-year record net short of 1.558 million contracts in 2019, and a fresh record five-year net short. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Miral Organizations: Bank for International, Futures Trading Commission, U.S, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
Leon Cooperman warned of sticky inflation, higher interest rates, and a potential recession. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementShort-sighted officials have paved the way for stubborn inflation, steeper interest rates, and a full-blown recession, Leon Cooperman told Insider in an interview this week. As prices continue to jump, Cooperman suggested interest rates — which the Fed has raised from virtually zero to above 5% during the last 18 months — could rise further.
Persons: Leon Cooperman, Cooperman, , Goldman Sachs, that's, frugally, We've Organizations: Service, Reserve, Omega Advisors, Yankee, Hyundai, Treasury Locations: Bronx, Washington
That is more than double the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and a testament to the strength of consumers. But he warned that stronger than expected economic data, particularly as regards the labor market, could leave the door open to even more pressure to raise rates or keep them higher for longer. "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." Complicating matters is that the post-pandemic economy has not gone according to script where higher interest rates almost always blunt economic activity and cause a marked slowdown in the labor market. “The labor market is still adjusting, if it ever does, there’s a question whether retail will ever recover completely,” he says.
Persons: ” Sam Bullard, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, , George Calhoun, Calhoun, Bill Adams, , speakership Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, Stevens Institute of Technology, University of, Comerica, Locations: U.S, of New York, Washington, Israel
Billionaire investor Ackman says 'covered our bond short'
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Bill Ackman, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Pershing Square Capital Management, speaks during the SALT conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. May 18, 2017. REUTERS/Richard Brian/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 23 (Reuters) - Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management has covered its bond short position, the billionaire investor posted on Monday, saying it was too risky to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. Pershing Square Capital Management did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for additional comment. "The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests," Ackman wrote on messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter. One of Wall Street's most voluble investors, Ackman has been using the social media platform to express his opinion on economic policy and presidential politics.
Persons: Bill Ackman, Richard Brian, Bill Ackman's, Ackman, Jaiveer Singh, Shilpi Majumdar Organizations: Pershing Square Capital Management, REUTERS, Capital Management, U.S, Pershing, Twitter, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, Bengaluru
At Friday's close of 4224 on Friday, the S & P 500 is off 8% from the July high, with its equal-weighted version down 11%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Yet the S & P was also at about the current level on Sept. 22, when the 10-year was a half-percentage-point lower, as well as on June 2, when it was at 3.7%. It's taken as a given in most corners of the investment business that higher rates available on bonds serve mechanically to compress equity valuations. Which is how the stock market finds itself here, with real or incipient breakdowns in regional banks and transportation stocks, the median S & P 500 component down for the year. The S & P 500 has gone on to drop a bit further, rally weakly and then roll back toward a five-month low.
Persons: James Carville, Bill Clinton, Stocks, it's, It's, Savita Subramanian, Jay Powell, LEI, Bond Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, Group, Bloomberg News Locations: Friday's, corporates, Israel
UK 30-year borrowing costs rise to highest since 1998
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A bus passes the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. Ten-year gilt yields were 2 basis point higher on the day at 4.69%, not far off a 15-year high of 4.755% set on Aug. 17. The BoE has raised its interest rate 14 times since December 2021 to 5.25%, but investors think it is now on pause, with only a 13% chance of a rate rise on Nov. 2 after its next meeting. The chances of a further quarter-point rate to 5.5% by March next year stand at around 55%. Reporting by David Milliken; editing by William JamesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Hannah McKay, Liz Truss, Jerome Powell, Richard Hunter, Jeremy Hunt, BoE, David Milliken, William James Our Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, Interactive Investor, Bank of, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain
The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.
Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris
LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5% for the first time since 2007, marking a fresh milestone in a relentless push higher for government borrowing costs. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidFurther signs of resilience in the U.S. economy help explain the latest sell off in Treasuries, as traders have unwound bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon start to lower interest rates. He highlighted what everyone has seen with the strong economic growth data and the retail sales figure that came out. Just like how the market forced the Fed to stop quantitative tightening in 2019, it might be forcing the Fed to rethink QT today.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, MICHAEL SCHULMAN, EL, , NOAH, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, QUINCY KROSBY, Powell Organizations: Treasury, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Fed, NORTH Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries, EL SEGUNDO, CALIFORNIA, CHARLOTTE, NC, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA, Ukraine, Russia
Being a solid coder isn't going to cut it at Citadel Securities anymore. Citadel Securities, which generated about $7.5 billion in revenue last year, is now focused on hiring thoughtful technologists who drive commercial outcomes for the firm. We're looking for people who can drive a big commercial impact for the firm," Aaron Moss, head of technology recruiting for Citadel Securities, told Insider. In one recent case, Citadel Securities extended an offer to a promising young intern, even though the hiring manager had been looking for a more experienced hire. "The industry is getting very high level with things like AI, which push people even further away from that understanding," Neff told Insider.
Persons: Ken Griffin, Aaron Moss, Josh Woods, It's, Olga Naumovich, Jayson Bevacqua, opportunistically, Damien Neff, it's, Neff, Costas Bekas, extroverts, Bekas, didn't, Moss Organizations: Citadel Securities, Citadel, Solaris Search, LinkedIn Locations: Miami
The Fed will let the bond market volatility "play out," Chairman Jerome Powell said. Though there could be many explanations for higher yields, monetary policy forecasts aren't the main driver. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere could be several factors sending Treasury yields higher, and the Federal Reserve will let the bond market run its course, Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday. While it's clear that higher yields are constraining financial conditions, the Fed will be watching for the persistence of this effect, Powell said. AdvertisementAdvertisementEarlier this month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm the bond market, saying there's no "evidence of market dysfunction."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Powell, what's, Janet Yellen Organizations: Economic, of New, Service, Federal Reserve, Financial Times Locations: of New York, Treasurys
Jeffrey Kleintop warned of a "cardboard-box recession" and a credit crunch for small businesses. Charles Schwab's top global strategist flagged a services slowdown and predicted stubborn inflation. (Kleintop warned that inflation has rarely plunged and stayed flat and low in past cycles, and suggested a period of higher, more volatile price growth was likely.) "We don't know how deep and how broad this is. It's one of those things where you just don't know how many things could get broken when it starts to move."
Persons: Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab's, Taylor Swift, , Kleintop, Walt, Banks, It's, We've, it's Organizations: Service, Walt Disney, Bloomberg, PMI Locations: , Florida, Japan
Basel proposes crypto disclosures by banks from January 2025
  + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The Basel Committee of banking regulators from the world's main financial centres agreed new rules last December on how much capital banks should hold to cover different types of cryptoassets. On Tuesday, they set out for public consultation how the holdings should be disclosed to investors. "Under the proposals, banks would be required to disclose qualitative information on their activities related to cryptoassets and quantitative information on exposures to cryptoassets and the related capital and liquidity requirements," the Basel Committee said in a statement. Banks would also be required to provide details of the accounting classifications of their exposures to cryptoassets and crypto liabilities, it said. Reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Banks, Jan, Huw Jones, Kirsten Donovan, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Committee, Thomson Locations: cryptoassets
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigh-interest rates have led the private sector to buy debt: Former KC Fed President Thomas HoenigRaghuram Rajan, University of Chicago professor, Former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed decision to Fed quantitative easing, an increase in new debt issuances, and how a shift in who is buying up debt is growing treasury rates.
Persons: Thomas Hoenig Raghuram Rajan, Thomas Hoenig Organizations: KC Fed, University of Chicago, Former Kansas City Fed
California quantitative hedge fund The Voleon Group is abandoning its controversial practice of demanding that ex-employees recuse themselves from the industry for two years without pay. The $5 billion fund, based in Berkeley, California, has long imposed one of the industry's harshest noncompetition agreements despite California lawmakers' efforts to eliminate the practice. Insider last week reported on Voleon's noncompete policies, which the company has at times tried to enforce using intimidation and legal threats, ex-employees told Insider. "I don't know anyone who hasn't signed," a former employee previously told Insider, adding that Voleon managers encouraged employees to sign the agreement. A Voleon spokesman previously told Insider: "Like most hedge funds, in order to protect its most sensitive intellectual property, Voleon requests that select employees sign noncompetition agreements."
Persons: they'd, Lee Koffler, hasn't, Voleon, that's, Organizations: Company, Voleon, Labor Locations: California, Berkeley , California, York
PNC Financial Services to cut jobs after quarterly profit drop
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 13 (Reuters) - PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.N) said on Friday it would reduce its workforce by about 4% as part of its cost reduction plans after it posted a drop in profit in the third quarter. Average deposits at Pittsburgh-based PNC were also down 3.8%, at $422.5 billion in the third quarter, compared to $439.2 billion for the same quarter last year. The lender earned a profit of $1.57 billion, or $3.60 per share, compared to $1.64 billion, or $3.78 per share, from a year earlier. The lender said it expects a drop of 1% to 2% for the fourth quarter in its net interest income (NII), compared to the current quarter this year. In the third quarter, it posted a drop of 1.6% in NII, to $3.4 billion, from the same quarter last year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Banks, Jaiveer Shekhawat, Pritam Biswas, Pooja Desai Organizations: PNC Financial Services Group Inc, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, PNC Financial Services, PNC, Analysts, Signature Bridge Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Pittsburgh, NII, Bengaluru
Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., gestures as he speaks during an interview with Reuters in Miami, Florida, U.S., February 8, 2023. JPMorgan Chase delivered strong profits for the third quarter along with a stern warning Friday from its top executive about the perils the world faces from multiple threats. "This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades," CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement that accompanied the bank's earnings news release. Dimon recently has said that he has been warning clients about the possibility that interest rates may not only stay elevated but also could rise significantly from here. JPMorgan Chase showed a $13.15 billion, or $4.33 a share, profit for the July-through-September period, a 35% jump from a year ago.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Reuters, JPMorgan, Israel Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S, Ukraine
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sounded the alarm on a series of risks looming over global markets. "This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades," Jamie Dimon said in a JPMorgan earnings press release. Dimon also reiterated concerns of higher interest rates to come, having previously noted 7% levels as a real possibility. Added to that is growing US debt, which has drawn increasing criticism for its potential to worsen interest rates and eventually lead to fallout, if left unchecked. Despite Dimon's concerns, JPMorgan's reported strong third-quarter results, helped by higher interest rates and its acquisition of First Republic Bank earlier this year.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, , JPMorgan's Organizations: Service, Bank, First Republic Bank Locations: Ukraine
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