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☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

☆ It's great timing for the US's first immigration boost in years — but experts say Biden needs to reverse more Trump-era policies for the economy to feel the maximum effect
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Jason Lalljee | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

While net international migration in 2022 wasn't as high as in 2016 — the high point for immigration between 2010 to 2022 — it's still the highest since 2017. Additionally, the authors note that 2022 is the "first time net international migration increased since 2016." The US would have had about two million more immigrants if not for those policies, Insider estimated based on the average growth rate from 2011 to 2016 for net international migration. According to Peri, "the number of immigrants who can come in legally is constrained" by laws and procedures that haven't really changed. Since entering office, President Joe Biden has reversed a number of Trump's restrictive immigration policies, although a number of them are still in place.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with J.P. Morgan's Gabriela Santos
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with J.P. Morgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss her positioning breakdown, why the 60/40 portfolio is back, and more.

☆ U.S. and EU are playing 'policy tennis' over green subsidies, says JP Morgan Asset Management
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. and EU are playing 'policy tennis' over green subsidies, says JP Morgan Asset ManagementHugh Gimber, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, says Europe will compete with the United States by offering generous green subsidies to companies in an effort to keep them on the continent.

☆ JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos: This is the most optimistic we've been about bonds since 2010
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Gabriela Santos: This is the most optimistic we've been about bonds since 2010Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss her positioning breakdown, why the 60/40 portfolio is back, and more.

☆ 75% of retirees fall short of a key retirement income goal. These steps can help
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But many retirees fall short of that retirement income goal, according to research from Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The gap isn't surprising, considering that more than 40% who are still working say they are behind schedule on their retirement savings. "You have all these competing priorities that can crowd out retirement savings," said Mike Moran, senior pension strategist at Goldman Sachs. What to know about Social Security's 8.7% cost-of living adjustmentWhy applying for Social Security benefits with long Covid is tricky1. Delay claiming Social Security benefitsThe longer you wait to claim Social Security retirement benefits up to age 70, the bigger your monthly checks will be.

SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Japan's central bank appears to have scored an interim win in its long-drawn battle with bond bears. The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy meeting this week was, at first glance, a damp squib for excited markets. It maintained its cap on 10-year yields, defying market expectations for change, and modified a funds-supply operation such that it offers more money for longer tenors to banks. After Wednesday's decision to retain ultra-low rates, 10-year bond yields, which had been testing the BOJ's 0.5% cap for a week, settled below 0.4%, suggesting many speculators were closing positions. "Most people are concerned about market liquidity in the bond market," a senior trader at a global bank in Asia told Reuters.

☆ JPMorgan begins private lending drive with $10 billion - source
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Jan 19 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has set aside at least $10 billion to back its foray into the world of direct lending, a person with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday. The Wall Street titan's move into the market is likely to put it head to head with established sector heavyweights such as Ares Management Corp (ARES.N) and Apollo Global Management (APO.N). Last week, JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told investors the bank was "absolutely open for business" in leveraged lending even as other U.S. banks are expected to book significant losses on risky loans underwritten last year. JPMorgan Asset Management has in recent years separately expanded its private credit platform unit, which targets opportunities in the direct lending segment, with plans to expand into other private credit strategies in the future. Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru and Saeed Azhar in New York; Editing by Krishna Chandra EluriOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Explainer: A looming U.S. debt ceiling fight is starting to worry investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE UNITED STATES HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Goldman Sachs estimated the debt ceiling would be reached between August and October. Declining as debt ceiling loomsDO BOND PRICES REFLECT U.S.

☆ US stocks close mixed as Dow dives nearly 400 points on weak Goldman Sachs earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs missed fourth-quarter estimates, while Morgan Stanley exceeded expectations. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years. Goldman Sachs contributed most to the market's sour sentiment, with the firm missing fourth-quarter expectations and weighing heavily on the Dow. Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected earnings. Early Tuesday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years.

☆ As crypto hackers and thieves make off with billions, there's another kind of fraud lurking in the industry.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

I'm sorry to say when you dig deeper into the practices of opaque crypto exchanges, there's little to restore that faith. Timothy Cradle, director of regulatory affairs at Blockchain Intelligence, told Insider that wash trading is market manipulation. NBER researchers estimated that wash trading comprises nearly half of all transactions on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by volume. Similarly, KuCoin, another top-five crypto exchange, was estimated to have 52.9% of its transactions consist of wash trading (which the company denied). Are you surprised that the researchers found wash trading to be so rampant a practice?

☆ The Fed has won its war against inflation and needs to end its interest-rate increases, says JPMorgan Asset Management's investment chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed can claim victory in its war against inflation and needs to stop hiking interest rates, according to JPMorgan's David Kelly. This is a war that they've won, and they're in danger of tipping the economy into recession," he said. Kelly expects three consecutive rate increases of 25 basis points each by May and sees borrowing costs staying there till year-end. This is a war that they've won, and they're in danger of tipping the economy into recession. I think they're making the fiscal problem worse, so I wish they would be done," Kelly said.

☆ Don't snap up stocks just yet – but stay alert as the Fed could soon spark a rally by wrapping up its rate-hiking campaign, a JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors shouldn't pile into stocks yet — but should be ready to jump in, a JPMorgan strategist said. "We think they're close to wrapping it up, thank goodness," Phil Camporeale told CNBC Wednesday. Camporeale told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Wednesday. But the bank is readying itself for any potential Fed-fueled rally by snapping up call options on some S&P 500 stocks, Camporeale said. "Right now we're long some calls on the S&P," Camporeale told CNBC.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Meera Pandit and Stifel's Lindsey Piegza
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's Meera Pandit and Stifel's Lindsey PiegzaMeera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, and Lindsey Piegza, Stifel chief economist, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss CPI expectations, Fed policy outcomes, and market indicators.

☆ The market doesn't necessarily seem to be set up for a severe recession, says Meera Pandit
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market doesn't necessarily seem to be set up for a severe recession, says Meera PanditMeera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, and Lindsey Piegza, Stifel chief economist, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss CPI expectations, Fed policy outcomes, and market indicators.

☆ The Fed is close to pausing, says JPMorgan's Phil Camporeale
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is close to pausing, says JPMorgan's Phil CamporealePhil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his positioning in the market and his belief that the Fed will soon pause rate hikes.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with JPMorgan Asset Management's Phil Camporeale
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with JPMorgan Asset Management's Phil CamporealePhil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his positioning in the market with his belief that the Fed will pause soon.

Shifts in tones at big banks suggest they are warming up to Chinese equities, especially as the strong returns so far and the fear of missing out on more gains start to apply pressure. "This is still a long path and we remain very bullish on Chinese equities ...and also the currency," he said. "When the market goes up, naturally that will attract international investors to look at China again," said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at abrdn. Foreign investors bought a net 41 billion yuan ($6.06 billion) of China stocks via the China-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme so far this year, compared with 90 billion yuan of China stocks bought in all of 2022. They bought a net 35 billion yuan of China stocks in December.

☆ Thought last year was bad for crypto? From FTX to Silvergate, the red flags are flying for the year ahead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Those realizations came to head repeatedly in 2022 as crypto hacks and a wintry bear market crescendoed with the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. On a macro level, persistent recession fears make speculative assets such as tokens or tech stocks less enticing. More notable is crypto bank Silvergate's nearly 50% plunge Thursday, and the company's announcement it would cut 40% of its staff. Job cuts at Amazon and Salesforce signal the first necessary step in staging a turnaround for tech stocks. All told, analysts predict layoffs could catalyze a 20% rally for tech stocks in 2023.

☆ Markets have returned to 'old era' of investing where fundamentals matter, says JPMorgan's Santos
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets have returned to 'old era' of investing where fundamentals matter, says JPMorgan's SantosGabriella Santos, JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Santos' investing theme, how investors should prepare for long-term high rates and why Santos likes the bond market.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with J.P. Morgan's Gabriella Santos on portfolio resolutions for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with J.P. Morgan's Gabriella Santos on portfolio resolutions for 2023Gabriella Santos, JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Santos' investing theme, how investors should prepare for long-term high rates and why Santos likes the bond market.

☆ Stocks advance, U.S. dollar retreats as China drops quarantine rule
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Xie Yu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China will stop requiring inbound travellers to go into quarantine starting from Jan. 8, the National Health Commission said on Monday. It will also downgrade the seriousness of COVID-19 as it has become less virulent and will gradually evolve into a common respiratory infection. read moreBy Tuesday morning in Hong Kong, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.5%. China's bluechip gained 0.6% and Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.43%. The dollar moved broadly lower on Tuesday while Australia's and New Zealand's currencies jumped as risk appetite grew after China scrapped its quarantine rule.

☆ There's at least one big name investor who won't be fighting the Fed next year.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

As if this year didn't bring us enough bad news in the market, there's a steady chance 2023 brings more of the same. But Saint Nick's absence isn't the elephant in the room for markets — it's the Fed. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper said he's "leaning short" on the stock market as the calendar changes. In a bid to squash decades-high inflation, this year the Fed has embarked on a historic interest rate-hiking campaign. "What the forwards in the Fed Funds futures are telling us is that it's increasing the probability that there's going to be a recession at some point," Caron said in a Bloomberg interview.

☆ There's no reason for the Fed to incite recession to curb inflation, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's no reason for the Fed to incite recession to curb inflation, says JPMorgan's David KellyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss inflation and whether the Fed's going to go too far with interest hikes, how investors should position for the long-run and more.

☆ Is the US in a recession? Not yet, but experts think we could be in one soon.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.

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