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☆ Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks, Including Zions, U.S. Bank, Western Alliance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Ben Eisen | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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☆ Premarket stocks: Is Big Oil running out of gas?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Oil and gas stocks have been on a two-year tear, ripping ahead as natural gas prices surged due to supply chain kinks, a strong economy, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What’s happening: Brutally high oil and gas prices were the talk of the town last year and one of the largest contributing factors to sky-high inflation. That’s bad news for automobile drivers, but ended up being great for the energy industry as oil prices and energy stocks are closely interlinked. Blackstone is feeling the commercial real estate slumpThe ongoing commercial real estate slowdown has a new victim: Blackstone. Profits from the sale of commercial real estate assets fell 54% to $4.4 billion, down from $9.5 billion last year.

☆ Markets are starting to get worried about US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But that’s starting to change, in what is shaping up to be a nail-biting game of debt ceiling squabbling as the shot clock is winding down. When the debt ceiling was breached in January, five-year CDS spreads hovered around 35 basis points. How does this compare to the 2011 debt ceiling debacle? In 2011 a debt ceiling standoff led to credit-rating agency Standard and Poor’s downgrade of US debt from the highest possible status, AAA, to AA+. After that occurred, the cost of insuring against US debt for a year jumped to 63 basis points.

☆ Copper Shortage Threatens Green Transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Yusuf Khan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

In 2021, refined copper demand stood at 25.3 million tons, according to the International Copper Study Group. Mined output globally in 2022 was 21.8 million tons according to the International Copper Study Group, rising only 1 million tons over the previous three years. According to Congo’s Ministry of Mines, copper metal exports totaled 2.3 million metric tons in 2022, up from 1.8 million metric tons in 2021, less than half of Chile’s output. According to analysts it is more of a “when” not an “if” copper demand is likely to surge. Changes in technology should ease some copper demand pressures.

☆ Global corporate defaults highest since the pandemic in 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In a report Tuesday, credit rating agency Moody’s said 33 of the corporations it rates defaulted on their debts in the first quarter, the highest level since the last quarter of 2020 when 47 companies defaulted. Almost half, or 15 companies, defaulted last month — the highest monthly count since December 2020. In a sign of a tougher global environment for corporate borrowers, investors went sour on corporate bonds last year. Moody’s expects that a combination of higher borrowing costs and slowing global growth will push up defaults on speculative-grade corporate debt to 4.6% by the end of this year, up from 2.9% in March. By the end of the first quarter next year, the global default rate on this type of debt will likely rise to 4.9%, Moody’s said.

☆ Four out of the five US metro areas with the lowest unemployment are in Florida. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Four out of the five US metropolitan areas with the lowest unemployment rates are in Florida, thanks to the state’s growing population, robust tourism activity and increased business investment. Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando all had unemployment rates below 2.7% that month. Florida was also the fastest growing state as a percentage during that period, the first time it has notched that top spot since 1957. “Florida is pro-cyclical, so when unemployment is low, it’s going to be even lower in Florida and vice versa,” Pintea said. Some studies have argued that generous unemployment programs keep unemployment higher for longer by disincentivizing workers from searching for a new job.

☆ Living standards are still falling in Japan. That’s a recipe for more stagnation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Adjusted for inflation, wages slipped 2.6% in February, compared to the same month a year earlier, according to government data released last week. That means it’ll be tough for Ueda to hike interest rates, especially as living standards aren’t rising either. The issue of stagnant wages could improve this year, as companies heed the call to raise salaries in response to inflation. Workers in Japan have been grappling with stagnant wages, leading to a government push for businesses to hike pay. But in Japan, it’s high enough to feel uncomfortable, given stagnant wage growth, according to Angrick.

☆ Only the big will crack the $1 trln LBO code
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Lenders will only tiptoe back, meaning deals need the big checks and extra elbow grease in credit markets that favor the largest private equity firms. Private equity firms depend on borrowed money to reduce how much of their own they use in any single deal and to magnify returns as a percentage of their initial investment. Imagine a private equity firm acquires a company for $1 billion, then flips it five years later for $1.5 billion. Though the private equity industry is awash in so-called dry powder, fundraising is increasingly tilting to the largest fund managers. Buyout firms are apt to keep their plans more conservative to garner higher ratings – meaning, again, less leverage and more upfront cash.

☆ US government’s proposal to boost EV sales is challenging but not impossible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

By 2032, electric vehicles would need to make up about two-thirds of all the new cars sold in America. And even as EV market share rises to two-thirds, it’s not like EVs will flood America’s roads overnight, he said. Reaching two-thirds EV market share mark by 2032 isn’t a sure thing, said Cantor, but it should be manageable. The increasing number of automakers entering the EV market will also help, said Ivan Drury, an industry analyst with Edmunds.com. General Motors also has a number of EV models coming in the next year or two.

Paying more for deposits is an effective way for banks to keep customers loyal, analysts said. Smaller banks, which were most strained by the recent crisis, have been able to stem the exodus of deposits for now, according to weekly from the Federal Reserve. That said, the Fed’s data showed deposits at smaller banks were still down some $216 billion during the week ending March 22 from a December high. Meanwhile, large U.S. banks lost out on $96.2 billion in deposits in the week ending March 22, the Fed data showed. Deposits at large banks dropped some $519 billion from as high as $11.2 trillion in February last year.

☆ ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

As politicians sleepwalk toward a potential debt ceiling crisis, financial markets have begun pricing in a small — but growing — chance of a disastrous default. “The probability of default has gone up noticeably,” Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, told CNN in an interview. Yellen has used unusually strong language for a former central banker to warn Congress against messing with the debt ceiling. Asked about MSCI’s estimate of a 2% implied probability of a default, Valliere said that number is low. But this is not a typical debt ceiling debate.”Fallback optionsThere are some early indicators of concern popping up in the bond market.

☆ Banking crisis won’t hurt America’s credit rating unless stress intensifies, Moody’s says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —The banking crisis that caused US officials to launch emergency interventions is unlikely to have significant direct costs for the federal government, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The credit ratings firm said late Wednesday that at this stage, the biggest bank failures since 2008 are not expected to meaningfully hurt America’s credit profile. “In particular, we do not expect significant direct fiscal costs” from the current banking sector stress, Moody’s wrote in a report. However, Moody’s warned that an intensification of the banking crisis could be problematic. “A scenario of severe and prolonged stress, which is not our current baseline, could weaken economic and fiscal strength,” Moody’s said.

☆ Foot Locker is closing 400 stores. They may become an eyesore
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Foot Locker will close 400 stores by 2026 in malls. Anchor vacancies in malls hurt neighbors like Foot Locker and reduce traffic to their stores as well. Eventually, stores like Foot Locker go dark and it becomes harder for the mall to survive. Finding tenants for the 400 Foot Locker spaces will be challenging as big retailers look to stay away from weaker malls. Bed Bath & Beyond will be “much easier to fill than in-mall spaces.”So what happens to all the indoor malls with empty Foot Locker stores and other vacant spaces?

☆ Fed official: People ‘hate’ inflation. That trumps bank stress and job loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve faced a particularly vexing decision this week: Should it raise interest rates during a bank crisis? But the economic reports heading into this week’s Fed meeting suggest the economy remains too hot. The Fed ultimately reached a unanimous decision to raise interest rates for the ninth meeting in a row. “The one thing that I hear loud and clear from everybody is that they hate inflation. They find inflation to be unfair,” Barkin said, referring to talking to residents in his Fed district.

☆ Credit Suisse rescue creates bank twice the size of Switzerland's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

London CNN —The last-minute rescue of Credit Suisse may have prevented the current banking crisis from exploding, but it’s a raw deal for Switzerland. An aerial view of the headquarters of Credit Suisse, center, and UBS, left, at Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland on Sunday, 19 March, 2023. Credit Suisse is “part of Switzerland’s identity,” said Hans Gersbach, a professor of macroeconomics at ETH university in Zurich. “The Credit Suisse Swiss bank is a fine asset that we are very determined to keep,” Kelleher said Sunday. Integration is difficultAt $3.25 billion, UBS got Credit Suisse for 60% less than the bank was worth when markets closed two days prior.

☆ Elizabeth Warren demands Fed crackdown on large regional banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Senator Elizabeth Warren is cranking up the pressure on the Federal Reserve following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank fit into that asset threshold when they failed earlier this month. The bipartisan 2018 rollback of Dodd-Frank freed large regional banks in that range of assets from the toughest oversight. Notably, the letter was signed by Senator Angus King, the Maine independent who voted in favor of the 2018 rollback. Days after the bank failures, the Federal Reserve launched a review of the regulation and oversight of Silicon Valley Bank.

☆ Global banking crisis: One big problem down. Too many others left to go
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Credit Suisse, hobbled for decades by mismanagement, scandal and bad bets, finally succumbed to the emerging global banking crisis. In the United States, the banking crisis began nearly two weeks ago with the sudden collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over a three-day span. That sent shockwaves through the global banking system. Good news and bad newsThe good news: Those loans do not indicate anything inherently wrong with the global banking system. But the banking system and regulators would have to calm fears before that happens system-wide.

☆ First Republic shares tumble to a new low
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Shares were halted several times for volatility, and they sank further after a report from the Wall Street Journal said rival banks led by JPMorgan (JPM) are trying to work on yet another rescue plan for First Republic. First Republic declined to comment on the report. Thursday’s government-arranged deal amounted to a big cash deposit that would allow First Republic to meet customers’ demands for withdrawals. What’s more, Thursday’s $30 billion infusion didn’t increase First Republic Bank’s capital — the safety cushion funds that banks use to absorb losses — “so that’s a separate weakness that we need to keep our eyes on,” said McCoy, who helped establish the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. McCoy added that there’s “every reason to think that the capital has shrunk,” given First Republic’s heavy paper losses on its bond portfolio.

New York CNN —Global banks just suffered their worst week since 2008. Credit Suisse and First Republic: Two more banks wobbled but remained upright through the week. Meanwhile, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline on Thursday from some of the largest banks in the United States. US-traded shares of Credit Suisse were down nearly 7% and First Republic shares plunged by about 33% on Friday. That doesn’t mean that banks taking money from the FHLB and participating in the Federal Reserve’s emergency Bank Term Lending Program, which lent out $12 billion to banks this week, are in big trouble.

LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - Banks should largely be able to cope with "unrealised losses" on bonds and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, top credit ratings agencies S&P Global and Moody's said on Thursday, although they remained guarded on Credit Suisse's woes. "At this stage, we view the risks from unrealized losses as manageable," S&P said in a report published just days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a lender it had rated as 'investment grade' until the day it fell. Rival agency Moody's also offered its balm to the Credit Suisse jitters, saying that while it would "act appropriately" with the Swiss bank's rating, Europe's lenders remain in fundamentally good health. "That kind of confidence shock that we've just seen from the U.S. is bound to have some impact," Hill said. Reporting By Marc Jones and Lawrence White Editing by Nick ZieminskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Silicon Valley Bank executives went to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in late February looking for advice: They needed to raise money but weren’t exactly sure how to do it. Soaring interest rates had taken a heavy toll on the bank. Deposits and the value of the bank’s bond portfolio had fallen sharply. Moody’s Investors Service was preparing for a downgrade. The bank had to reset its finances to avoid a funding squeeze that would badly dent profits.

☆ Can the Fed help fend off a banking crisis while also cooling the economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

To stave off the latter, the Fed offered a solution that seemingly contradicted its hawkish flight path: looser purse-strings. That means the Fed can still fight the battle against inflation even while it shores up the banking sector. Although the Fed’s new program is an extraordinary action to ensure bank stability, the Fed is engaged in the lending business every day, Brusuelas noted. “The Fed buys and sells government securities each day to maintain the range of its policy rate — the federal funds rate — between 4.5% and 4.75%,” he said. Once that returns, the central bank can shift its focus back to restoring price stability, he said.

☆ Europe didn't roll back post-2008 banking rules. That was smart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Shares in European banks slumped Wednesday as speculation about the health of Credit Suisse (CSGKF) reignited the market turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, has fallen 13% since last Wednesday’s close. In 2018, former President Donald Trump watered down key parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, which set stricter rules for the banking sector. But European banks are required to hold capital to cover the risk of a large and sudden change in borrowing costs. “This means that European banks have less exposure to market risk on bonds, despite a similar rise in yields,” Moody’s said in its note.

☆ First Republic Bank stock tumbles on credit downgrade and deposit worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —First Republic Bank’s credit rating was downgraded on Wednesday by both Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings on concerns that depositors could pull their cash despite the federal intervention. Fitch also placed another regional bank, PacWest Bancorp, on watch for a potential credit ratings downgrade of its own. The moves reflect continued worries about the banking system in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Both credit ratings firms pointed to the large amount of deposits at First Republic that are uninsured because they are above the $250,000 FDIC limit. Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday cut its outlook for the entire US banking sector and placed six US banks on review for potential credit rating downgrades, including First Republic.

☆ Goldman’s new strategy gets baptism of fire
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is providing a slightly awkward showcase for Goldman Sachs’ (GS.N) manifold talents. It’s true to the new unified “One Goldman Sachs” strategy expounded by Chief Executive David Solomon, dampened by the client not living to tell the tale. The investment bank Solomon now leads scrambled throughout the financial crisis to help panicked clients shore up their finances. SVB’s financial models had to be revised on the fly and approved by its board as the situation deteriorated. There also was no soothing imprimatur from Buffett, or a rich Silicon Valley grandee such as Larry Ellison, Steve Ballmer or Larry Page.

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