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The inflation data came on the heels of last Friday's employment report, which showed a solid pace of job growth in March and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%. In Europe, stock markets rose after the U.S. data and the broad STOXX 600 index was last up 0.5% (.STOXX) and holding near one-month highs. BONDS UP, DOLLAR DOWNU.S. bonds yields fell after the CPI numbers. Rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields were last down 12 basis points at 3.93% , while U.S. 10-year yields fell 6 bps to 3.37%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six rivals down 0.4% at 101.72.
[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. Last month the Bank of Canada became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign, leaving its benchmark rate at 4.50%. However, bank failures in the United States and Europe have put central bankers on guard against a widespread credit crunch. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agree that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its key overnight rate steady. "Hiking in this environment would put markets on high alert," said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst at Monex Canada, in a note.
REUTERS/StaffApril 12 (Reuters) - World stocks and bond yields stalled on Wednesday as markets anticipated crucial U.S. inflation data which could give signals on how soon the Federal Reserve will end its aggressive rate hikes. Markets were in wait-and-see mode ahead of the data, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index inching up 0.3% by 0820 GMT, while Britain's FTSE (.FTSE) was up 0.6%. Government bond yields were also little moved with benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields unchanged on the day at 3.43%. "We do not assume that the discrepancy between Fed and market expectations will end today or in the near future," Reichelt said. With oil prices rising again and labour market cooling only gradually, risk remains tilted for core inflation to remain elevated for longer," they said.
SINGAPORE/LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the day to hold some clues on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Inflation data "could be the difference between a 25bp hike or pause at the Fed's next meeting in May," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, adding that money markets could "quickly revert to reprice a policy pause" if the inflation data comes in softer than expected. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data.
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen, with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the global day to hold some clue on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak. The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A raft of Fed speakers on Tuesday offered little guidance on how much further U.S. interest rates would rise. New York Fed President John Williams said it depended on incoming data. Against the yen , the dollar rose to a nearly one-month high of 134.045, a reflection of the stark contrast between the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle and the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ultra-loose policy.
Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.
Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.
[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. The Bank of Canada (BoC) last month became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agreed that the bank would hold its key overnight rate steady. At the same time, the BoC raised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.0% in January. The bank cut its 2024 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.8% in January, and said the economy would expand by 2.5% in 2025.
[1/2] U.S. dollar and Euro bank notes are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture taken May 7, 2017. In Europe, investors put 17.7 billion euros ($19.35 billion) into euro-denominated money market funds in March, Refinitiv Lipper data shows, when the Credit Suisse crisis rocked markets. Other analysts said it was due to the fact that euro money market funds are underdeveloped relative to U.S. funds and are focused more on private sector, particularly bank, debt. WHAT IS A MONEY MARKET FUND? The European money market fund sector is far smaller than in the United States.
Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 for the first time since June. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback against six major counterparts, including the yen - slipped 0.06% in early Asian trading, following a 0.39% advance at the start of the week. The consumer price index (CPI), due on Wednesday, will be the next major clue for Fed policy direction. The dollar index dropped to a two-month low of 101.40 on Wednesday. Bitcoin touched a fresh 10-month high at $30,000 in early Tuesday trade before last fetching $29,787, after breaking free of recent ranges on Monday.
How the banks deliver could set the market tone in the coming weeks. Jim said Monday that such a pause could spark a big stock market rally while keeping rates high enough for banks to make money. How these dynamics play out will factor into the Fed's next rate move — and as a result, market sentiment. Since deposit levels directly contribute to a bank's ability to make loans, it's not surprising that commercial bank lending declined in recent weeks. To be sure, Wells is a traditional bank that must deal with short-term deposit and lending gyrations.
EURNOK and inflationGoldman Sachs and UBS said that the rising cost of borrowing would likely support the Norwegian crown. But those daily sales are well down from the 4.3 billion crowns per day the central bank sold in October. "Any budget surplus that was generated from the commodity exports was basically being neutralized by the Norges bank," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex. Much of the crown's fate could also depend on what the U.S. central bank does. If the Fed stops hiking rates, this would likely boost global equities, which have a strong positive correlation to the Norwegian crown.
Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
  + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
The bank crisis has distressed markets, but Nicole Webb expects consequences to be relatively muted. Still, Webb expects choppy waters as stocks come close to retesting their October lows. She also shared six stocks with both value and growth traits to hedge volatility and maximize gains. Webb clarified that the unchanged outlook doesn't mean the economy is completely free from the consequences of the banking crisis. But she also believes that a slowing economy means that some growth stocks have begun to look more attractive, especially the mega-tech names that were overly punished in 2023.
The Asia-wide index had surged more than 5% since mid-March to close at a 1 1/2-month high on Tuesday. E-mini futures for the broader S&P 500 indicated a 0.24% decline at the reopen, extending Wednesday's 0.25% slide. As signs have built this week for a sharp U.S. slowdown, traders have been pricing for a more dovish Fed. That helped the yen, which is highly sensitive to U.S. yields, gain against fellow safe haven the greenback. The dollar index rose 0.12% to 101.99, continuing its bounce from a two-month low.
Fed officials have been pointing to the tight labor market as an area of concern for inflation, using it as evidence that it hasn't tightened rates enough. After months of strategists and investors complaining that earnings estimates are too high, they've started to fall — but with a catch. If the trough in earnings is close, then the stock market could be in for a big year. ET - Producer price index Friday: Earnings: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup, PNC Financial 8:30 a.m. ET - Fed H.8 data on assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks
Crude oil continued to tick up, but not at Monday's pace, with Brent a little over $85. Money markets lay 2:1 odds for the Fed to hike by another quarter point over a pause at their next meeting in a month from now. By contrast, the European Central Bank is seen as almost certain to tighten by a quarter point at its meeting around the same time. The Reserve Bank of Australia, for its part, decided to press pause on its year-long rate hiking campaign - as most economists had predicted - amid signs that inflation may have peaked. China has been for the first time keeping at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea, according to a Pentagon report.
"The current pace of deposit loss to MMFs raises questions over sustainability," JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Friday client note. "If it continues for a prolonged period, more US banks could eventually run out of reserves and face liquidity issues similar to SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate." The ongoing deposit flight has created a problem for banks that have to maintain a base of assets against their deposit totals. In the current case, the situation has seen banks dip into reserves to cover their capital requirements, a situation that JPMorgan called potentially dangerous. Bank reserves have declined sharply since the Fed began curtailing then ultimately reversing its quantitative easing.
Money markets and currencies were unmoved on Friday morning after a grand jury’s decision to press criminal charges was announced on Thursday night. While pressing charges against a former leader can amount to a dangerous political tool if used frivolously, it also shows that future American leaders are not immune to criminal charges, creating an extra incentive for them to behave. But moments of high political drama make politicians run to their corners of the boxing ring. Follow @thereallsl on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSFormer U.S. President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on March 30 and is expected to face criminal charges next week. The poll found 46% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Trump, while 32% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
OTTAWA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy grew more than expected in January and is seen expanding further in February, data showed on Friday, results that are likely to fuel concern by the central bank that inflation has yet to be fully tamed. The economy gained by 0.5% in January, ahead of analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after contracting 0.1% in December, Statistics Canada said. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to pause interest rate hikes in March after increasing them at eight consecutive previous meetings. With the key overnight rate now at 4.5%, the bank said it would not raise rates again if inflation came down as forecast. While inflation has eased, falling to 5.2% in February from a high of 8.1% last year, the economy is expanding faster than the central bank had forecast in January.
watch now"There has never been a time that as much as right here and right now in the recent past that an emergency savings account is vital, absolutely vital," Orman said. In 2020, she co-founded SecureSave, a company working with employers to provide emergency savings accounts to employees. "If you go back through my entire history of almost 40 years now, I've been [saying] emergency savings, emergency savings, emergency savings," Orman said. How your emergency fund deposits are insuredAn important part of emergency savings is easy access, which means most people are looking at some kind of high-yield savings account. Generally, deposit accounts are eligible for $250,000 coverage for the sum of accounts at an institution in this category, which includes checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit or money market deposit accounts.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are less favorable on government bonds right now, portfolio manager saysRob Dishner, managing director at Neuberger Berman, discusses government bonds and money markets on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."
The ETF has slumped nearly 26% since March 8, when SVB's troubles became known, while the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index (.SPSIRBK) is down around 23%. Concerns over deposit flight are still swirling around some regional banks. He owns shares of large regional banks including Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N), which have fallen about 22% so far this year, and US Bancorp (USB.N), which are down some 18%. Margie Patel, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, has been adding new positions in regional banks over the last few weeks, citing "value." Regional banks "need positive news that shows their deposits are holding firm or growing," said Rick Meckler, a partner at family office Cherry Lane Investments.
NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - Some investors and analysts are calling for more coordinated interventions from central banks to restore financial stability, as they fear that tumult in the global banking sector will continue amid rising interest rates. On Friday, shares of Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) plunged amid concerns that regulators and central banks have yet to contain the worst shock to the banking sector since the 2008 global financial crisis. Global central banks including the Federal Reserve have recently taken measures to enhance the provision of liquidity through the standing U.S. dollar swap line arrangements. "The issue with European banks and big U.S. banks at the moment is confidence. Meanwhile, overall deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600 billion since the Fed began to raise interest rates last year, the biggest banking sector deposit outflow on record, noted Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.
The recent lineup of bank failures has depositors suddenly asking the simple question: is my money safe? Jason J. Howell, a certified financial planner and the president of Jason Howell Company, says yes, your money is safe. This way, if you need cash quickly, you could get it. "You're going to have to go to the US TreasuryDirect to buy those bonds," Howell said. "Money markets nearly went bust in the 2008 financial crisis, so there's no need to put a wrapper around it," Howell said.
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