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Oil prices saw three consecutive weekly declines last week, marking the longest losing run this year. The recent slide in oil prices is starting to bottom out, according to analysts who predict that a more significant pickup in the coming quarters is in the cards. Oil prices saw their third consecutive weekly decline last week, marking the longest losing run this year. The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, which failed to materialize. "We're looking more positively at the second and third quarter than what's happened in the first quarter," Morse said.
When renowned Spanish-American chef José Andrés tweeted that eggs should be fried in olive oil a finger deep, one user commented: "Olive oil can be expensive at a finger deep. "Aldi olive oil spread used to 99p. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, global olive oil prices have hit $5,989.8 per metric ton, marking a 26-year high. The outbreak of war in Ukraine, which created a global shortage in sunflower oil, pushed up the demand for olive oil even more. "The outbreak of war in Ukraine, which created a global shortage in sunflower oil, pushed up the demand for olive oil even more," he added.
Qatar Airways says it welcomes the competition from the new Saudi Arabian flag carrier Riyadh Air, although acknowledging a range of challenges and headwinds that the wider industry is currently facing. "We love competition," Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at the Arabian Travel Market conference in Dubai Monday. Launched in March, Riyadh Air will be the second flag carrier of Saudi Arabia, with a main operational base in Riyadh and wholly owned by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. But the new competition in the region might not mean cheaper air fares. "If you want cheap fares, then you have to go and fly airlines that also have a cheap product," he added.
Russia's role as a global energy player is set to diminish, and the U.S. and Qatar are among a slew of nations ready to fill its shoes, analysts told CNBC. "Russia's global LNG supply share will almost certainly decline this decade," Henning Gloystein, a director for energy, climate, and natural resources at political consultancy Eurasia Group told CNBC. He noted that its role in the liquefied natural gas space was retreating even before the country's invasion of Ukraine last year. Western sanctions, which resulted from the onslaught of its neighbor, further sapped most foreign investment out of Russia's LNG sector. He added that the total capacity for Russia's LNG facilities to produce natural gas will remain flat at 37 million tons over the next few years.
Orlando, Winter Park, Rocket Fizz Soda Pop & Candy Shop, chocolate bar display, Milky Way and Snickers. Raw sugar futures in recent days rose to 24 cents a pound and reaching an 11-year high. "Sugar fundamentals are quite bullish for the prices to remain elevated in the short to medium term," said Girish Chhimwal, a sugar analyst at S&P, citing weather risks plaguing top sugar producers. Rising costs could be passed on to consumers in the form of pricier candy. "The rising price of confectionary and sugar-based beverages will incorporate rising sugar values," said John Stansfield, a senior sugar analyst at commodity data platform DNEXT.
The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions. "At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices," Fitch Solutions' commodities analyst Charles Hart said. That would mar the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes, said Hart. "The global rice production deficit situation will increase the cost of importing rice for major rice importers such as Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and African countries in 2023," said Tjakra. "It is our view that global rice production will stage a solid rebound in 2023/24, expecting total output to rise by 2.5% year on year," Fitch's report forecast, hinging on India being a "principal engine" of global rice output over the next five years.
"Barley is the first step in a long process of stabilizing our trading relationship with China," Farrell said Friday, after the two economic giants agreed this week to work toward removing tariffs on Australian barley. Since China's 2020 tariffs on barley, Australia has been essentially blocked from exports to that market worth about $620 million ($916 million Australian dollars) in 2018-19. Don Farrell Minister for Trade and TourismWhen asked about a timeline on a complete resolution to the barley tariffs, the Australian trade minister said he was looking at "the next three to four months." While the future of Australian barley returning to China again is still not confirmed, Farrell is hoping wine could be next on the list. In March 2021, China introduced a crushing five-year tariff of up to 218% on Australian wine.
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The Japanese yen could strengthen to 120 per dollar by the end of the year on the back of a change in the central bank policy. "We have quite high conviction in our view — we're looking at 125 [per dollar] by the end of June, and we're actually looking at 120 by the end of this year," said Craig Chan, Nomura's head of global FX strategy. "We believe the Fed is at the peak. There's certainly, in our view, still tweak risk around BOJ policy," said Chan.
Signs of recovery may be emerging in China's luxury and consumer discretionary goods sectors, said an analyst from Bank of America, even as China released data showing consumer inflation at an 18-month low. "In terms of luxury high-end [consumption] — we're seeing quite strong recovery," said the bank's chief China equity strategist Winnie Wu. "On the lower end, the bubble tea, the Shabu Shabu, those hotpots — we're seeing good recovery." China's luxury market fell 10% in 2022, declining for the first time in five years, according to Bain & Company. Wu, however, maintained that a good overall recovery across China's consumer sector has yet to be seen.
The Esso Fawley Oil Refinery, operated by Exxon Mobil, stands in Fawley, U.K., on Thursday, May 14, 2020. The surprise output cut by OPEC and its allies sent oil prices rallying — and analysts say major oil importers like India, Japan and South Korea will feel the most pain if prices hit $100 per barrel, as some have predicted. On Sunday, OPEC+ announced a production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day, in a move that oil markets were not expecting. "It's a tax on every oil importing economy," said Pavel Molchanov, managing director of private investment bank Raymond James. The voluntary cuts by countries in the oil cartel are set to start in May and last till the end of 2023.
A photo of one hundred Egyptian pound, one hundred U.S. dollars against the pyramids of Giza in Egypt on January 17, 2023. Fadel Dawod | Getty ImagesThe Egyptian pound has plunged almost 20% against the greenback since the start of the year — with some analysts predicting that the currency may still have room to plummet further. Egypt's pound currently ranks as the sixth worst performing currency since Jan. 1, extending a decline that saw it lose more than half its value during 2022. Egypt's embattled economyHowever, the economic woes plaguing the Middle East's most populous country means its pound still has a way to plummet, according to the experts. He expects Egypt's inflation to peak at around 36% in the third quarter, if there are no more devaluations.
Oil storage tanks stand at the RN-Tuapsinsky refinery, operated by Rosneft Oil Co., at night in Tuapse, Russia. Oil prices surged as much as 8% at the open after OPEC+ announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day. The voluntary cuts will start from May to end 2023, Saudi Arabia announced, saying it was a "precautionary measure" targeted toward stabilizing the oil market. The move comes on the back of Russia's decision to trim oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023, according to the country's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. "OPEC+'s plan for a further production cut may push oil prices toward the $100 mark again, considering China's reopening and Russia's output cuts as a retaliation move against western sanctions," CMC Markets' analyst Tina Teng told CNBC.
Iron ore prices could fall as much as 28% by the end of 2023 as China's steel demand and output are set to fall, experts forecast. Morgan Stanley analysts say iron ore prices will fall and cited subdued production from the world's leading steel producer China, as well as the country's turn toward steel scrap. Commonwealth Bank of Australia also predicted a drop in iron ore prices, expecting it to be $100 per ton by the fourth quarter this year "as China's steel demand eases in the second half of the year," the bank's analysts said last week. Analysts say there's still upside potential for iron ore prices in the coming months, as China reopens and eases Covid-19 restriction. But they do not expect the strength of China's steel production or demand to last beyond the second half of this year.
Investors have been flocking to gold and Treasurys as bank stocks have been whacked by the shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse's implosion. Gold prices have more room to run as global banks struggle and the U.S. Federal Reserve renders another interest rate decision, potentially breaking all-time highs — and staying there. Investors have been flocking to gold and Treasurys as bank stocks have been whacked by the shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse's implosion. Gold has risen around 10% since early March when SVB was hit by a bank run. "Continued central bank buying of gold bodes well for long-term prices," said CEO Randy Smallwood of Wheaton Precious Metals, a precious metals streaming company.
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty ImagesThe crypto industry has had a rough year with digital currency markets crashing and companies collapsing across the board. Hong Kong is planning to introduce new rules in June that will require crypto trading platforms to be licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission. Bitcoin ATMs, operated by Coinhero, in Hong Kong, China, on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. While Hong Kong harbors high crypto ambitions and boasts relatively lower tax policy on businesses, the city could still potentially find competition with other crypto hubs. The logo of Bitcoin cryptocurrency at a store in Hong Kong on Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022.
The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen at a branch office in Zurich, Switzerland, November 3, 2021. The contagion effect from the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is local and contained, said Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann on Wednesday. Embattled lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate were not subjected to strict enforcements that govern bigger banks in the U.S. and other parts of the world, Lehmann told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at a panel session in Riyadh. "So in this regard, I think [the contagion] is somewhat local and contained," he said. However, Silicon Valley Bank's fallout still serves as a "warning signal" for the overall market climate, the chairman cautioned.
Cathay Pacific hopes to be profitable again in 2023, but returning to its pre-pandemic capacity remains one of the airline's "biggest risks," its CEO told CNBC. "But I'm hopeful that this year we can turn around the business and be back in profit overall." However, the airline swung to an annual operating profit of HK$3.5 billion last year — the first since 2019, according to Refinitiv data. "We need to have manpower in the air manpower on the ground. We also need the airport workers to be ready to take on flights both in Hong Kong and overseas."
Oil prices dipped as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to reverberate across global markets. National Australia Bank expects the prices to drop further following a stronger than expected U.S. inflation data slated for release later. "Oil prices fall on market fall-out from the US Silicon Valley Bank collapse. While energy prices have seen some relief due to diminishing shortage concerns, upside risks remain said Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "We see upside risks to our outlook driven by a sustained fall in Russia's oil and diesel exports," CBA said.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he hasn't made up his mind about what the central bank will do regarding interest rates when it meets later in March. Speaking to the House Financial Services Committee, Powell said he and his colleagues will be assessing a raft of incoming inflation data, including reports next week on consumer and producer prices. The larger point, though, is we are not on a preset path and we will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook." Powell shook markets Wednesday when he said he anticipates that if the inflation data remain hot, he expects rates will go higher than expected and at a faster pace. Markets now expect the Fed to raise its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.5 percentage point when the Federal Open Market Committee meets March 21-22.
Storm clouds are seen over the city skyline on October 01, 2021 in Sydney, Australia. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.67% as investors digest Reserve Bank of Australia's governor Philip Lowe's speech after the bank's 25 basis point hike the day before. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 28,200 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 28,210. Both are lower compared to the Nikkei 225's last close at 28,309.16. The Hang Seng futures was at 20,314, a lower figure compared to the Hang Seng index 's last close at 20,534.48.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. That would mark the highest rate since June 2012, when Australia's cash rate stood at 3.75%. Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noted the tone of the central bank's statement could determine how much further the RBA would hike rates to tame inflation. Pointing to the RBA's statement of needing further increases in rates "over the months ahead," Simpson said, "Any adjustments to the wording of this sentence could be the difference between one or two more hikes from here." "A further increase over the months ahead would suggests one more hike is to follow, with a terminal rate at 3.85%," he said.
"We see a lot of supply coming out from lithium mines ... We are expecting 38% lithium supply growth this year. That's why 2023 is likely to turn into a surplus year for lithium," Zhao told CNBC. She also said she expects China's electric vehicle demand growth to slow from 95% last year to 22% this year. In the two years ending December 2021, lithium carbonate spot prices rose 5% to stand at 277,500 yuan per ton. But subsequently surged to a record high of almost 600,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, more than 12 times January 2021 prices.
The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $126.80 per ton. Vincent Mundy | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFalling prices for global crude steel output could also contribute to lower iron ore prices. "Global crude steel output fell modestly in year-on-year terms last month ... The result was driven by a fall in steel output amongst most of the world's largest steel producers." World crude steel output recorded a 3.3% drop in January compared to the same period last year, according to the World Steel Association.
Turkey's central bank on Thursday slashed its policy rate by 50 basis points from 9% to 8.5% as the country continues to reel from the aftermath of a devastating quake which affected millions of lives. The country's most recent inflation rate in January stood at 57.68%. Turkey's monetary policy is premised on a pursuit of growth and export competition rather than soothing inflation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan espouses the unorthodox view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it. The Turkish lira held steady at 18.87 against the greenback following the central bank decision.
Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says he expects the airline to see a full return to pre-Covid capacity in 2024. "We're confident that we'll get back ... 100% of our pre-Covid international capacity, and well over 100% for our domestic capacity," Joyce projected for financial year 2024. ″[There is] really strong demand in leisure, in business ... in corporate," he told CNBC, adding that the pent-up demand will continue for some time. Qantas reported record half-year profits in the six months ended December 2022, but shares still closed 6.8% lower on Thursday. The flagship carrier recorded underlying profit before tax of $1.43 billion Australian dollars ($975.2 million) in half-year ended Dec. 31.
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