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In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, but consumers aren't buying it . Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right? Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their highest level since April 2022 .
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, We've, Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Spencer Platt, Getty, Tyler Le, We'll, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Steven Blitz, China's, aren't, Chelsea Jia Feng, weren't, Natalie Ammari, that's, Ron Sherman, Gen, Mark Zuckerberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jack Sommers, Jordan Parker Erb, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Fed, Chelsea, Spotify, Visa, US Justice Department, Prosecutors, Meta Locations: Austin , Texas, New York, London
Read previewBuying a home could get much more affordable, but Americans might have to wait a while. AdvertisementHere's how Goldman Sachs expects this to play out. To be sure, predicting the future of the US housing market is no easy task, and housing affordability levels will continue to vary by city and state. But if Goldman Sachs is right — and these three developments come to pass in line with the bank's projections — buying a home could become much more affordable for Americans. Viswanathan said Goldman Sachs expects US home prices to rise 4.4% in 2025, up from a 3.2% projection in April.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Vinay Viswanathan, Viswanathan, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve
Mortgage rates are expected to drop, which means that it might be a good time to buy a second home. There's no perfect time to buy a home, so I'm more concerned with whether it feels like a good time. So, while mortgage rates are expected to go down this year for primary homes, mortgage rates for second homes might not fall as equally. Still, the Fed rate cut is already impacting mortgage rates, which could benefit second-home mortgages, as well. Barring a big windfall of cash allowing you to buy something outright, there may never be a "perfect" time to buy a home.
Persons: Grams, I'm, Grams —, doesn't, Cheryl Lock Cheryl Lock, Read Organizations: USA, Forbes, MarketWatch, Twitter, LinkedIn Locations: Denver
Sean “Diddy” Combs has been moved to a section of the New York City jail where convicted cryptocurrency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried is being held, sources confirm to NBC News. The area of the detention center is reserved for detainees who require special protection, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. Combs, 54, was arrested last week and is being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, a federal jail that has a notorious reputation for violence and poor care. Bankman-Fried, known as SBF, was convicted in November and was sentenced in March to 25 years in federal prison. Combs has not been convicted and has pleaded not guilty, but a federal judge on Sept. 17 ordered that he be held in jail pending trial.
Persons: Sean “ Diddy ” Combs, cryptocurrency fraudster Sam Bankman, Combs, Prosecutors Organizations: New, NBC News, Metropolitan Detention, MDC, Federal Bureau of Prisons, Alameda Research Locations: New York City, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Alameda
Morgan Stanley is now looking ahead at the perfect mixture of conditions for a strong fourth quarter. The firm is squarely focused on an improvement in the labor market driving the best possible returns. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve nailed the rate-cut scenario that Morgan Stanley called its best-case result leading into the decision. Heading into last week's announcement, Morgan Stanley was looking for a 50-basis-point cut that didn't also stoke worries about unnecessary growth. To be sure, job conditions are not the only thing Morgan Stanley is watching.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, , didn't, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Federal, Service, Reserve, stoke, Bank of America, Conference Board
"Today's policy measures are bold by historical standards," Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday. Stimulus measures don't address consumptionDespite the fanfare, analysts are divided over whether the moves that ease monetary policy constitute a massive "bazooka" stimulus. AdvertisementMost say the monetary easing policies don't address the lack of confidence contributing to depressed consumer spending. China has pulled out multiple support measures this year to shore up its economy and stock markets, but any kneejerk optimism has been shortlived. Advertisement"Overall, we feel today's measures are a step in the right direction, especially as multiple measures have been announced together rather than spacing out individual piecemeal measures to a more limited effect," Lynn Song, the Greater China chief economist at ING bank, wrote on Tuesday.
Persons: , Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Betty Wang, Wang, it's, Nomura, Lynn Song Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Analysts, Oxford Economics, CSI, Nomura, ING Locations: Beijing, China, Greater China
HSBC: RBA unlikely to cut rates before Q2 next year
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHSBC: RBA unlikely to cut rates before Q2 next yearPaul Bloxham, HSBC's Chief Economist of Australia, New Zealand & Global Commodities, talks about Australia's struggle with persistent inflation, especially in the housing space.
Persons: Paul Bloxham Organizations: HSBC, Global Commodities Locations: Australia, New Zealand
In another twist of his extreme rhetoric, Trump also seems to be seeking scapegoats should he lose the election in just over 40 days. Last week, at an event on antisemitism, the former president warned that “the Jewish people” would be partly to blame if he loses in November. As president, I have to be your protector.”Former President Donald Trump holds a fighting antisemitism event at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster on August 15, 2024, in Bedminster, New Jersey. On Monday, the former president warned that if Congress tried to block him from imposing new tariffs on China, he’d just ignore lawmakers. Like Trump, Harris argues that US Steel should remain American owned in opposing a sale to Nippon Steel — Japan’s biggest steelmaker.
Persons: Donald Trump, , ” Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, , Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, he’s, Biden, Netanyahu, , Adam Gray, We’re, Viktor Orbán, ” mused Trump, Republican Party —, Xi Jinping, Xi, he’d, John Deere, “ I’m, haven’t, Joe Biden, Win McNamee Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Fox News Town, America, Trump National Golf Club Bedminster, Getty, Farmers, Capitol, Republican, Republican National Convention, Republican Party, Monday, Investments, Trump, The New York Times, Siena College, Steel, Nippon Steel Locations: Pennsylvania, China, Israel, Bedminster , New Jersey, Harris, America, Hungarian, Beijing, Mexico, United States, Illinois, Ramos, Sprankle's, Kittanning , Pennsylvania, Arizona , North Carolina, Georgia
The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% - with a gender gap that is centered among independents. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor Trump), and among Black (79% Harris to 16% Trump) and Latino (59% Harris to 40% Trump) likely voters. Likely voters overall say they trust Trump over Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris), immigration (49% Trump to 35% Harris) and foreign policy (47% Trump to 40% Harris). Likely voters generally favor Harris’ approach on abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris to 31% Trump), uniting the country (43% Harris to 30% Trump), and protecting democracy (47% Harris to 40% Trump). Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, SSRS, Libertarian Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, Trump, Harris ’, That’s, Joe Biden, – Harris, outpacing Trump, Trump’s, Tim Walz, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Hillary Clinton, Clinton Organizations: CNN, Trump, Libertarian, Green Party, Democratic, Independent, White, Minnesota Gov, Voters, Republican
The international poverty line, which the U.N. uses to measure global poverty, is very low. The international poverty line is valuable because it has succeeded in drawing the world’s attention to the extreme poverty of the world’s very poorest people. But to end poverty in all its forms everywhere, studying this poverty line alone is not enough. One way to see whether this higher poverty line is reasonable is to check whether it aligns with established national poverty assessments. For this, we need an appropriately ambitious poverty line that receives the same attention as the low international poverty line.
Persons: Michail Moatsos, , Lant Pritchett, Lyndon Johnson Organizations: The New York Times, Getty Images, United Nations General Assembly, Democratic, Bank, World Bank Locations: adulthood.Today, New York City, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo, , Bolivia, Nigeria, India, United States, Denmark, Switzerland, Netherlands, Norway
The Chinese central bank's largest stimulus measures since Covid should provide the world's second-largest economy with a much-needed boost, which should help our portfolio companies doing business there. The Club has a broad range of companies with significant sales exposure to China, and some with none. Here's a look at the percentages in our 32 stock portfolio, as well as recent earnings call commentary, about the business climate and the potential in China. On the industrial side, DuPont has the most China exposure because of its electronics and water businesses. Eaton and Dover don't have nearly as much China exposure.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, Colette Kress, Tim Cook, Brian Niccol, Gamble, Andre Schulten, Peter Arduini, Lori Koch, Stanley Black, , Jeff Marks, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Peng Organizations: People's Bank of China, Wall, Commodities, Republican, House, Democratic, Trump, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Nvidia's, Apple, Starbucks, Investors, Huawei, Jefferies, Consumer, Procter, Barclays, GE Healthcare, GE, DuPont, Banking, Coterra Energy, Investing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Asia, China, America, U.S, Eaton, Dover, People's Republic of China
Read previewThere's a 70% chance the US economy is either in a recession or headed toward one in the months ahead, according to Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong. The one that stands out most to Wong is the much-talked-about sustained rise in the unemployment rate. "Initially, in all the recessions, this is how the unemployment rate tends to rise," she said. Another key metric economists watch to judge whether the economy is in recession is consumer spending, which makes up around two-thirds of GDP in the US. LendingTreeWong believes wealthier Americans are spending due to the wealth effect, where high asset prices boost consumer confidence and fuel spending.
Persons: , Anna Wong, Wong, Louis Fed, Louis Fed Wong, LendingTree Wong Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Fed Locations: St
Read previewTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton is calling guaranteed basic income "unlawful." This new lawsuit comes after Paxton sued the county in April over another guaranteed basic income pilot called Uplift Harris. Some Texas lawmakers have called guaranteed basic income socialist, or a means to "hand out money like popcorn." Related storiesPaxton's lawsuit could impact the livelihoods of GBI participantsFor many participants, guaranteed basic income is a financial safety net. Have you participated in a guaranteed basic income program?
Persons: , Ken Paxton, Paxton, Harris, St . Louis, Harris County Attorney Christian D, Menefee, Delwin Sutton, Sutton, Rodney Ellis, Ellis Organizations: Service, Prosperity, Texas Supreme, Business, Attorney's, General's, Texas, Republican, Harris County Attorney, Community Prosperity Locations: Texas, Harris County, Harris, Houston, America, Arizona , South Dakota, Iowa, St .
He says that his remarkable success came with sacrifices like giving up on what he considered a healthy work-life balance. "I believe in working extremely hard … I absolutely disagree with the idea of work-life balance," Armoo said in an interview with CNBC Make It. "There is a season where you say, 'I want to achieve this goal and I want to get different results to other people. I want to get extraordinary results.' The way you achieve those extraordinary results is by doing extraordinary things, which literally means doing things that are not ordinary," he said.
Persons: Timothy Armoo, Armoo Organizations: CNBC Locations: London
Property stocks in Hong Kong rally on homes mortgage stimulus
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Chinese property stocks rallied on Tuesday after top financial regulators vowed a range of monetary easing measures to provide some relief for millions of families and boost a recovery in the real estate market. During a high-level press conference Tuesday morning, People's Bank of China Gov. Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index surged as much as 5% when Hong Kong markets opened shortly after the announcement was made. Chinese policymakers have been ramping up support to reduce household's financial burden and shore up the troubled real estate sector. Homeowners could also be allowed to refinance with a different bank for the first time in years, the outlet reported.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Pan, William Wu, Bruce Pang, Pang Organizations: People's Bank of China Gov, Mainland Properties, Longfor Group Holdings, China Overseas Land & Investment, Daiwa, Bloomberg Locations: Beijing, Hang, Hong Kong, China, JLL
Here are the stocks making notable moves in extended trading on Tuesday: KB Home — The homebuilder fell 6% after fiscal third-quarter earnings missed expectations. KB Home reported $2.04 in earnings per share, slightly below the $2.06 per share expected by analysts, according to LSEG. Rithm Capital — Shares of the asset manager fell 2% after Rithm announced a plan to sell 30 million shares. Progress reported adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on $178.7 million of revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $1.14 in earnings per share on $176.2 million of revenue.
Persons: Rithm Organizations: Rithm
But think-tank economists warned Business Insider that former President Donald Trump's proposed mass deportation could open that door right back up. Beyond posing significant humanitarian concerns, economists worry Trump's proposed mass deportation would be hugely inflationary, partly due to the basic calculations of supply and demand. Both he and Edelberg said a sudden mass deportation would upend the labor supply and, in turn, the ability to make goods. McKibbin has researched the impact of mass deportation and said it would lead to a combination of lower production and higher costs, particularly in the agriculture and construction sectors. Add on the uncertainty that mass deportation would bring, and a chilling effect among investors seems plausible.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, Trump's, Wendy Edelberg, Warwick McKibbin, Edelberg, Adam Posen, Posen, McKibbin, Josh Bivens Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Trump, Business, Brookings Institution, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Bloomberg TV, Economic Policy Institute, Democratic
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Persons: Jim Cramer, we've, Jensen Huang, Huang, Oppenheimer, , We've, Cintas, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, China, Tech, Nvidia, Devices, Broadcom, Jim Cramer's Charitable
In today's edition, our team breaks down a key Nebraska state senator's decision to stand in the way of a Trump-backed drive to change how the state allocates its electoral votes. Trump allies have pushed for a special legislative session intended for the Republican-controlled legislature to change Nebraska to a winner-take-all system instead of awarding electoral votes by congressional district. The developments appear to cap months of deliberations over whether Nebraska lawmakers could change the way the state apportions its electoral votes in a way that would benefit Trump. Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, and the swing district around Omaha has twice gone to Democrats in recent years, giving them one electoral vote from an otherwise ruby-red state. But if lawmakers changed that to a winner-take-all model, Trump would be all but certain to win all of Nebraska’s electoral votes.
Persons: Jonathan Allen, Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, Katherine Doyle, Allan Smith, Ben Kamisar, Donald Trump, Sen, Mike McDonnell, Trump, Kamala Harris, Mark Murray, Democratic Party — Harris, Harris, , Biden’s favorability, Harris ’, Trump’s favorability, Trump’s, , Jeff Horwitt, J D, Joh, Hou, ari, us jobs, Rea Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Trump, Key, Key Nebraska Republican, Nebraska Republican, Republican, NBC News, Nebraska, Electoral, Democratic Party, Democrats, Democratic, New York Times, aig Locations: Nebraska, Key Nebraska, , Omaha, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Siena, Arizona , Georgia, North Carolina
Sterling breached $1.33 against the greenback for the first time since March 2022 on Thursday, and was trading at $1.3315 early London time Monday. The pound's rally was tied to the BOE communication and "looks fully justified," Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, said in a Friday note. Higher rates are traditionally a positive for a domestic currency as the higher yield can attract more foreign capital. watch nowGabriella Dickens, G7 economist at AXA Investment Managers, also cautioned on the pound's outlook in a note Thursday. If the government is more stringent on fiscal policy, we think the Bank will be forced to increase the pace of the cutting cycle to offset the hit on both households' and businesses' finances."
Persons: Keir Starmer, BOE, Chris Turner, Turner, Jane Foley, Gabriella Dickens, Dickens Organizations: Bank of England, Labour, Sterling, greenback, London, ING, Fed, U.K, European Union, Rabobank London, CNBC, AXA Investment, Bank, quicken Locations: Britain,
Since 2019, Oberman, his wife, and their two cats have lived in five cities across four countries. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "With a creative background, I bring some flexibility to our travels," the 38-year-old told Business Insider via email, adding, "I have options to work no matter where we land." Over the past year, Business Insider has interviewed several people who have moved away from their home countries. The couple found a full-time day care option that charges roughly $400 a month for children less than one year old, according to a document provided to Business Insider.
Persons: , Chris Oberman, Oberman, he's, Netherlands Chris Oberman Organizations: Service, Business, South Locations: Netherlands, , Beijing, Shanghai, Erbil, Iraq, Seoul, South Korea, China
But the nature of the race — a toss-up contest in swing states — has not budged. No clear leaderBut despite the rising heat on the campaign trail, the race remains where it has been for weeks: deadlocked. The vice president is at 50% compared with Trump’s 47% in the latest CNN Poll of Polls average. Vice President Kamala Harris boards Air Force Two in Queens, New York, on September 22, 2024. Former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at the Aero Center in Wilmington, North Carolina, on September 21, 2024.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, he’d, , Trump, He’s, CNN’s KFile, Kamala Harris, Harry Enten, Democrat John F, Richard Nixon, Gretchen Whitmer, Harris ’, , Harris, Sharyl Attkisson, , Joe Biden, Matt Rourke, Biden, Donald Trump, Jim Watson, Republicans —, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, she’s, “ I’m, “ I’ve, ” Harris, South Carolina Sen, Lindsey Graham, NBC’s Kristen Welker, Who’s Organizations: CNN, White, North Carolina, Democrat, Michigan Gov, Democrats, Trump, NBC News, Democratic, Electoral, Air Force, Capitol, Oval, Democratic National Convention, Republican Party, Aero Center, Getty, Republicans, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, NBC, , Federal Reserve, mull, Republican, South, Locations: Ohio, “ State, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, North Carolina, United States, Queens , New York, Trump, Chicago, Wilmington , North Carolina, AFP, Florida, South Carolina
Mainly a print model, Zheng used to rake in 30,000 yuan ($4,230) a month when she began working two years ago. Some are virtually indistinguishable from the real thing, while others are inspired by the original design and offer morecolors or textures. The popularity of this product category is soaring as consumer confidence in China nears a historic low, according to analysts. Shoppers are sitting on the sidelines due to a combination of falling stock prices, capital flight and “tepid” wage growth, the economists said. A Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of the Chinese property giant on on January 29.
Persons: Zheng Jiewen, Zheng, , , Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Laurel Gu, Lulu, dupes isn’t, Nomura, Xinxin, Greg Baker, Nicole Hal, “ I’ve, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, Prada, Reuters, Shoppers, Barclays, Hong, Getty, Goldman Locations: China, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Asia, Japan, Chongqing, Beijing, AFP, Europe,
But while lower mortgage rates may translate to more buying power for homebuyers, America’s housing market woes aren’t likely to be solved solely by rate cuts. But Enterprise Community Partners, the nonprofit where Donovan currently serves as CEO, estimates that the US needs 7 million new units in order to stabilize the housing market. “There are a lot of factors that have affected the housing supply and these are complicated issues to solve. “We’re not expecting mortgage rates to fall that much further, and we still think that the mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ effect will still be there,” Dougherty said. “Things will probably pick up as rates come down, but we’re not looking for a high-octane rebound,” Dougherty said of the housing market.
Persons: they’d, aren’t, , , Shaun Donovan, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, ” Donovan, Harris, Trump, Donovan, Jerome Powell’s, Freddie Mac, Charles Dougherty, That’s, “ We’re, ” Dougherty, ” Powell, that’s, Dougherty, “ It’s, ” Ryan McLennan Organizations: CNN, Housing, Urban Development, National Association of Realtors, Partners, Federal, Fed, National Association of Home Builders, homebuilders, Consumer Financial Locations: America, Wells Fargo, Houston, homebuying
Fed rates not only set short-term borrowing costs for banks, but they also help determine mortgage, auto loan and credit card rates. According to the firm, shares of a few major discount retailers should outperform if middle-income consumers see higher levels of disposable income. Shares of Home Depot and Lowe's are up roughly 12.9% and 17.2% this year, respectively, as the prospect of lower interest rates boosts consumer sentiment. Tech products seller Best Buy could also get a boost from improved middle-income consumer sentiment, Telsey forecasts. If the rate-cutting cycle boosts sentiment among higher-end consumers, Telsey expects consumer retail names such as Williams-Sonoma and German sandal company Birkenstock to outperform.
Persons: Dana Telsey, Telsey Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Walmart, Dollar, Holdings, Tech, Williams, LSEG Locations: U.S, Sonoma, German
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