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Europe narrowly avoids a recession
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
London CNN —Europe’s economy avoided ending 2023 in a recession by the narrowest of margins, official data showed Tuesday. In the July-to-September quarter, GDP dipped 0.1%. Europe’s economy has struggled to regain momentum following the pandemic, hamstrung by high inflation and rapid interest rate hikes to combat it. The French economy, Europe’s second-largest, stagnated in the fourth quarter but grew 0.7% over the whole of 2023. He expects the eurozone economy to “flatline” in the first half of 2024 “as the effects of past monetary tightening continue to feed through and fiscal policy becomes more restrictive.”
Persons: , Russia’s, , Christoph Weil, , ” “, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Eurostat, Union, EU, , Commerzbank, European Central Bank, Capital Economics, ECB Locations: Ukraine, Europe, Italy, Spain
Dollar keeps tight ranges ahead of Fed, jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
A Chinese 100 yuan banknote, a 1 U.S. dollar bill and a 50 euro banknote are lying on a table. The dollar was steady in the Asian morning, with market participants moving cautiously ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that kicks off on Tuesday. "I suspect that the FOMC meeting will not be as dovish as current market pricing suggests," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The data will give another indication of whether the world's largest economy remains strong after the Fed's aggressive hiking campaign. Sterling was last trading at $1.2716, holding firm ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting this week.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Matt Simpson, hasn't, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang Organizations: U.S . Department of Labor, U.S ., Central Bank, Bank, DBS, Fed Locations: U.S
The eurozone economy stagnated late last year as a lingering energy crisis sparked a loss of competitiveness in some European industries, and consumers reined in spending to grapple with high living costs, Europe’s statistics agency reported Tuesday. But economists believe the worst may be over, as the European Central Bank continues its campaign to wring out inflation without plunging the eurozone economy into a deep downturn. Compared with a year ago, the eurozone grew by just 0.1 percent. The anemic pace is keeping Europe far behind the United States, where the economy, although slowing from a breakneck growth pace, continues to be powered by consumer spending. Aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve have brought a slowdown in inflation, and the Fed is expected to begin unwinding those increases soon.
Organizations: European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe, United States
European stock markets are heading for a lower start to the week as investors prepare for a slew of earnings, data and central bank announcements. The regional Stoxx 600 climbed 3.1% last week, closing at its highest level since January 2022, according to LSEG data. Gains came amid some positive fourth-quarter company results, and as the market ramped up bets that the European Central Bank will begin cutting interest rates in April. It is a big week for earnings, with Big Tech's Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet all set to report. In Asia-Pacific, markets traded mixed with all attention on Hong Kong's High Court ordering the liquidation of Chinese property developer Evergrande.
Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Big, Microsoft, Apple, Philips, Ryanair, Hong Locations: Europe, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong's
European markets are expected to open higher Friday as investors digest the European Central Bank's latest decision and fresh economic data from the U.K. and U.S. The ECB met market expectations Thursday and held interest rates steady at their current record high. U.K. consumers are their most confident since January 2022, buoyed by falling inflation, new survey data showed Friday. Stateside, U.S. stock futures were higher after economic growth for the quarter came in well above expectations. Meantime, Asia-Pacific markets mostly declined Friday as electric vehicle stocks in the region dropped for a second day, while investors also digested inflation data from Tokyo.
Organizations: Central, ECB Locations: Asia, Pacific, Tokyo
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with workers while visiting CS Wind, the largest wind tower manufacturer in the world, in Pueblo, Colorado, U.S., November 29, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Apple opens iPhone store in EuropeApple plans to open up its iPhone App Store in Europe to competitors. Some investors have been wary since Beijing has been struggling with a property debt crisis that has triggered financial risks across the broader economy.
Persons: Joe Biden, Tesla, Lagarde, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CS Wind, CNBC, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Europe Apple, Digital Markets, European Central Bank, Pro Locations: Pueblo , Colorado, U.S, Tesla, Europe, China, Beijing
IPSO: High dissatisfaction with Lagarde's leadership style
  + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIPSO: High dissatisfaction with Lagarde's leadership styleCarlos Bowles, vice-president of the European Central Bank's staff union, discusses the latest employee survey.
Persons: Carlos Bowles Organizations: European Central Bank's
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde looks on as she attends the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, at the European Parliament, in Brussels, Belgium September 25, 2023. President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she was "proud and honored" to leead the European Central Bank, after her leadership was slammed in a union-run survey of staff. The survey's qualitative responses suggested some staff believed she had created a negative atmosphere at the central bank, and that she spends "too much time on topics unrelated to monetary policy," IPSO said. Appearing unfazed, former politician and lawyer Lagarde said that the ECB conducted its own surveys in a "way that we can trust." The surveys are conducted by around 60% of employees, and also cover wages, respect in the workplace and workplace satisfaction, she said.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, IPSO, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, ECB, IPSO Locations: Brussels, Belgium
The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates unchanged, and reiterated it would keep them high for a "sufficiently long duration" to bring inflation to target. The central bank is holding steady for the third straight meeting, after hiking its deposit rate to 4% in September. The central bank is facing a sluggish euro area economy and fragile financial stability, but it is also focused on bringing inflation down to 2% from 2.9% currently. The ECB is highly concerned with cutting rates too soon and undoing some of the effects of the existing tightening. On Thursday morning, markets were factoring in a 62% probability of an April cut, according to LSEG data.
Persons: Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB
Dollar treads water ahead of U.S. GDP; ECB meeting in spotlight
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Traders have been consolidating positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The report is, however, likely to show that the U.S. avoided a recession in 2023 and is expected to show moderating inflation in the last quarter, stoking expectations of rate cuts sometime in the first half of 2024. Other U.S. data this week includes the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday. The move from the central bank comes after a Bloomberg report earlier this week of a rescue package worth $278 billion to help stabilise the battered stock markets. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar struggled to sustain a China-inspired rally earlier this week.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Central Bank, Traders, U.S, Asia FX, InTouch, ECB, Wednesday, Bloomberg, Australian, New Zealand, Aussie, Bank of, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, U.S, China
Three 1kg gold bullion bars worth over 155,00 GBP lay on the counter in a gold dealers in Birmingham's jewelry quarter on December 13, 2023 in Birmingham, England. Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,015.83 per ounce by 0424 GMT. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $22.76 per ounce, platinum climbed 0.3% $901.53, and palladium gained 0.1% to $964.07.
Persons: Kyle Rodda Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, U.S
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey’s central bank raised its key interest rate by another 2.5 percentage points on Thursday, pressing ahead with a series of hikes aimed at combating inflation that reached nearly 65% in December. Erdogan is a longtime proponent of an unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to fight inflation, which runs contrary to mainstream economic thinking. The European Central Bank is expected to keep its record-high benchmark rate steady at its meeting Thursday, following a rapid series of hikes over more than a year. Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former U.S.-based bank executive, took over as central bank governor in June, becoming the first woman to hold that position in Turkey. Previously, Erdogan had fired central governments who reportedly resisted his push to cut interest rates.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Merrill Lynch, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Organizations: European Central Bank, Turkish Locations: ANKARA, Turkey, Ukraine, U.S
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will likely push back Thursday against expectations for quick interest rate cuts even as Europe's economy sputters and financial markets froth in hopes of cheaper credit that would boost business activity and stock prices. Lagarde has cautioned that the bank will make decisions based on the latest figures about the economy's health rather than making longer-term promises. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials discussed prospects for rate cuts at the bank's December meeting, and the U.S. central bank has indicated it would cut its key interest rate three times this year. Rate cuts make riskier investments like stocks more attractive than safer bets like money market accounts and certificates of deposit. Expectations for rate cuts have been fueled by the rapid drop of inflation in Europe to 2.9% in December from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, “ Lagarde, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Union Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Frankfurt, U.S, Europe, Ukraine, Berenberg, Suez, Africa
For months, rates have been set at the highest in the European Central Bank’s history. Despite the protests of the eurozone’s policymakers, investors have been betting that the central bank will cut rates quite soon — possibly in April. Traders figure rates must come down because inflation has slowed notably — it’s been below 3 percent since October — and the region’s economy is weak. By the end of year, the central bank will have cut rates by more than 1 percentage point, or between five and six quarter-point cuts, trading in financial markets implied. Many of the central bank’s Governing Council are wary of declaring victory over inflation too soon, lest it settle above the bank’s target of 2 percent.
Persons: , it’s Locations: Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB will probably implement 4 rate cuts in 2024, says wealth management firmAlexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for the China market and the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central bank.
Persons: Alexandre Drabowicz Organizations: ECB, Indosuez Wealth Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Locations: China
ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 3.7 basis points at 4.1050% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped 3.7 basis points to 4.3418%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday morning as investors brace themselves for two key pieces of economic data in the second half of the week. Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week: a preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department's closely watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday. Both data points will inform the Federal Reserve as it maps out when and by how much to begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key factor in determining the path of markets and the economy this year. Auctions will be held for $60 billion of 17-week Treasury bills, $61 billion of 5-year notes and $28 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).
Persons: Jim Reid, Bullard, Reid, that's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank's, Global, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, St Louis Fed, PMI
The Swiss government on Wednesday selected Stefan Walter, a 59-year-old German national who was director-general of the European Central Bank for the last decade, to head the Swiss financial authority known as FINMA. Swiss authorities feared the collapse of such a major lending institution could further roil global financial markets following the failure of two U.S. banks last year. The troubles at Credit Suisse threatened to unhinge Switzerland's position as a leading financial market, and the takeover left the country with only one internationally important bank: UBS. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesA parliamentary panel created after the government-orchestrated merger has been looking into the origins of the deal. Walter, who has a master's degree in international banking from Columbia University in New York, will start the job on April 1, the Swiss government said.
Persons: Stefan Walter, Walter, Urban Angehrn, Angehrn, Mark Branson, Marlene Amstad, ” Amstad, SRF, FINMA Organizations: GENEVA, UBS, Credit Suisse, Swiss, European Central Bank, Federal Council, Columbia University Locations: Swiss, U.S, British, New York
European markets are heading for a positive open Wednesday as investors look ahead to preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from the euro zone in January. The composite services and manufacturing PMI data will give investors a gauge of business activity in the single currency area, ahead of the European Central Bank's next meeting on Thursday. Overnight in Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged almost 2%, powered by tech stocks as other regional markets mostly fell. U.S. stock futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed Wednesday morning after Netflix reported its subscriber count reached a record in the fourth quarter.
Organizations: European Central Bank's, Netflix Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S
Dollar hovers near 6-week high on Fed view; yen edges up after BOJ
  + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The Japanese yen , though, ticked higher as expectations rose for a stimulus exit as soon as March, following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. "We have seen ECB (European Central Bank) officials push back on rate cut expectations as well, in line with the Federal Reserve." The dollar declined 0.17% to 148.085 yen, after swinging from as low as 146.99 and as high as 148.70 on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada meets on policy on Wednesday, and is expected to leave its key overnight rate unchanged at a 22-year high of 5%. Traders have unwound bullish positions built up in anticipation of U.S. approval of the country's first spot bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF).
Persons: Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, James Kniveton, Christine Lagarde's, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, China's, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, San Francisco Fed, ECB, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Traders Locations: U.S
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde received a harsh assessment in a union-run employee survey, with some staff accusing her of fostering a negative atmosphere and focusing on her own career. Many respondents said Lagarde spends "too much time on topics unrelated to monetary policy" and forays too often into political discussion, the ECB union IPSO said alongside the results released Monday. Just over half of the nearly 1,100 respondents rated Lagarde's performance so far as "very poor" or "poor." The survey was conducted between Dec. 12 and Dec. 22, 2023, around the mid-point of Lagarde's eight-year term. The former International Monetary Fund chief and French finance minister took on the job spearheading euro zone monetary policy in November 2019.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, IPSO Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund
Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24
Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Gold prices could close the year as much as 10% above current levels on the back of potential interest rate cuts, UBS strategists said, despite declines at the start of 2024. Markets are increasingly uncertain that the Fed will begin interest rate cuts in March. Analysts tied the rise to interest rate expectations and the global volatility stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Persons: Gold Organizations: Federal Reserve, UBS, Federal, Scotiabank, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, World Gold, Analysts Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, London
Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.
Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S
Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.
Persons: , Christopher Waller, , who’ve, Loretta Mester, , Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, , JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States
The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, comes to a close after drawing a raft of business leaders, politicians, central bankers and campaigners. U.K. retail sales disappointed Friday, coming down by 3.2% in December, significantly more than expected. It was the largest monthly fall since January 2021, when pandemic measures restricted sales, the Office for National Statistics said. The technology sector drove a solid rally Thursday, after Bank of America analysts upgraded their Apple rating to "buy." Asia-Pacific stocks were also higher, with TSMC surging and Japanese inflation cooling to its lowest level since June 2022.
Persons: Read Organizations: Economic, European Central Bank, National Statistics, U.S, Congress, Bank of America Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Asia, Pacific
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