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In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.6% to just a whisker above a nine-month low hit the previous day. That brought the total loss for the week to 3.4% and marked the third straight week of declines for the index. Shares of Chinese property developers (.HSMPI) listed in Hong Kong fell 1.2%, after China Evergrande (3333.HK) filed for protection from creditors in a U.S. bankruptcy court. "At the start of the year China's economy was powering ahead. Brent crude futures dipped 0.2% to $83.94 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures was flat at $80.36.
Persons: Yuan, HSI, China Evergrande, Jonas Goltermann, Goltermann, Padhraic Garvey, Sam Holmes, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: SYDNEY, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Bank of, Technology, HK, Capital Economics, ING, Atlanta Federal, U.S ., U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, Hong Kong, China, U.S, Beijing, Americas
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) were up 0.1% after hitting a nine-month low the session before. It was, however, headed for a weekly loss of 2.8%, the third straight week of declines. Data early on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed in July, a result that is likely to support market wagers that the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to phase out monetary easing anytime soon. Chinese property giants gained 0.3%, pulling away from a nine-month low hit just a session ago. "At the start of the year China's economy was powering ahead.
Persons: HSI, China Evergrande, Jonas Goltermann, Treasuries, Padhraic Garvey, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of, HK, Capital Economics, ING, Atlanta Federal, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, China's, China, U.S, Americas
"The application is a normal procedure for the offshore debt restructuring and does not involve (a) bankruptcy petition," it said in the filing, adding it is pushing forward with its offshore debt restructuring. Evergrande's offshore debt restructuring involves a total of $31.7 billion, which include bonds, collateral and repurchase obligations. A man walks past a No Entry traffic sign near the headquarters of China Evergrande Group in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China September 26, 2021. China's economic and property woes and the absence of concrete stimulus steps have sent a chill through global markets. "The China property sector is like a black hole, so many developers have been dragged into it since two years ago after Evergrande," said Winner Zone Asset Management CEO and CIO Alan Luk.
Persons: Evergrande, Aly, Nomura, HSI, Alan Luk, Clare Jim, Jonathan Stempel, Dietrich Knauth, Manya, Sumeet Chatterjee, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill Organizations: HONG KONG, China Evergrande, HK, U.S, Hong, British Virgin Islands, China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, Zhongrong International Trust Co, Longfor, Asset Management, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, HONG, U.S, United States, Hong Kong, British Virgin, New York, Shenzhen, Guangdong province, Beijing, Bengaluru
The 3.1% rise in the core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, matched a median market forecast, following a 3.3% increase in the previous month. The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes fresh food and energy prices and is closely watched by the BOJ as a better gauge of trend inflation, rose 4.3% year-on-year in July, accelerating from the previous month. Still, analysts say an acceleration in service-led inflation is a positive sign that demand-side inflation, which the BOJ is looking to stoke, may be building. Gabriel Ng, economist at Capital Economics, said the key question is whether services inflation can pick up the baton. Food costs were among the major contributors to the overall inflation due to elevated prices of raw materials.
Persons: Takeshi Minami, Gabriel Ng, Ng, Kazuo Ueda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Norinchukin Research, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, stoke
The Kremlin's top brass are trying to pass the buck over the ruble's collapse. Russia's central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, said the weak ruble is due to changing trade flows. "A weak ruble complicates the economy's structural transformation and negatively influences real household earnings. "Blaming the central bank is like a drunkard's search — looking for the guilty where the light is," she said, the Financial Times reported earlier this week. The Kremlin, Russia's central bank, and Capital Economics did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider.
Persons: Putin's, Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Oreshkin, Vladimir Putin's, Oreshkin, Nabiullina —, , Liam Peach, Putin, Max Seddon, you've Organizations: Service, TASS, Financial Times, Capital Economics Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Surgut
Official data showed sales volumes last month were 1.2% lower than in June. Food stores sales volumes fell by a monthly 2.6% while non-food stores sales volumes fell by 1.7%. However, July's data represented only the second time that sales volumes fell on a month-to-month basis so far in 2023, suggesting resilience in consumer demand. Market research firm GfK reported last month that consumer confidence fell in July for the first time since January. Retail sales volumes were 3.2% lower than a year earlier, the ONS said, compared with economists' forecasts for a 2.1% decline.
Persons: Sterling, Heather Bovill, Ruth Gregory, GfK, Samuel Tombs, BoE, Tombs, Spencer, James Davey, Kate Holton, Susan Fenton Organizations: Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Department, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Macroeconomics, Thomson
Ministry of Finance (MOF) data out Thursday showed Japanese exports fell 0.3% in July year-on-year, compared with a 0.8% decrease expected by economists in a Reuters poll. However, manufacturers are braced for core orders to slide during the current quarter, partly due to the impact from weak offshore demand. Japan exports fall for first time since 2021However, the spectre of a sharper global slowdown and faltering growth in its major market China have raised concerns about the outlook. GLOOMY OUTLOOK TO KEEP BOJ ON HOLD"The Bank of Japan must be aware of downside risks from the global economy. Separate data showed Japan's core machinery orders rose 2.7% in June from the previous month.
Persons: Toru Hanai, Takeshi Minami, Minami, Marcel Thieliant, Tetsushi, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Ministry of Finance, Norinchukin Research, Bank of Japan, Manufacturers, Cabinet, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, China, Europe, America, Asia
The ONS said falling gas and electricity prices were the biggest driver behind the drop in inflation, while food price inflation also eased. Despite the drop in the headline figure, Britain retains one of the highest rates of price growth in Western Europe, with only Iceland and Austria suffering higher inflation. The BoE is watching core inflation - which strips out volatile food and energy prices - and consumer services prices closely. Services inflation picked up to 7.4% from 7.2% in June. Financial markets on Wednesday showed a roughly two-thirds chance that the BoE's Bank Rate will hit 6% in February, up from 5.25% now.
Persons: Phil Noble, BoE, Sterling, Ruth Gregory, Jeremy Hunt, Andy Bruce, William Schomberg Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, National Statistics, U.S, ONS, Bank, Capital Economics, Financial, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain, Bank of England, Western Europe, Iceland, Austria, BoE's
Nomura analysts were equally downbeat on China's economic outlook. Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth but they don't expect a recession. It was the slowest growth since December 2022, and shows just how much of a challenge authorities face as they try to make consumption the key driver of future economic growth. MORE STIMULUSAsian stocks stalled at one-month lows, the yuan hit a 9-month nadir while the dollar held broadly firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. But we do need to lower our expectations for China's growth."
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Nie Wen, Robert Carnell, Liangping Gao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Retail, Hwabao Trust, Investment, Reuters, ING, NBS, Nomura, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific
Asian stocks were down and the dollar held firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. Investment in the property sector tumbled 8.5% year-on-year in January-July, after shrinking 7.9% in January-June, extending its fall for the 17th consecutive month. Demand for the property sector, once a pillar of economic growth, has remained weak in recent weeks. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate climbed slightly to 5.3% from 5.2% in June. After the youth jobless rate rose to record high of 21.3% in June, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said at Tuesday's press conference the bureau will suspend publishing the survey-based jobless rate for the 16-24 years old from August, adding China will further improve its employment statistics.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Fu Linghui, Albee Zhang, Liangping Gao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Capital Economics, Jones, Investment, Communist Party, NBS, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailData points to a Chinese economy 'struggling for momentum,' economist saysJulian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, says there needs to be "a lot more stimulus if they really want to put a floor under growth and get the economy going again."
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: Capital Economics Locations: China
SummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in July; June sales revised upCore retail sales jump 1.0%; June sales revised downImport prices rebound 0.4%; down 4.4% year-on-yearWASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in July as Americans boosted online purchases and dined out more, suggesting the economy continued to expand early in the third quarter and keeping a recession at bay. Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, shot up 1.4% after rising 0.8% in June. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales surged 1.0% in July. Data for June was revised lower to show these so-called core retail sales increasing 0.5% instead of the previously reported 0.6%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Hunter, David Russell, Matthew Martin, Ben Ayers, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Retail, Reuters, Consumers, Market Intelligence, Wall, Treasury, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, delinquencies, New York Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Columbus , Ohio
REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration/File PhotoNEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Investors in Argentina's financial markets, where bonds and the peso slid on Monday after central bank moves following a surprise primary election result, said the vote had a silver lining: it would likely hasten long-called-for economic reforms. The result initially introduced uncertainty into asset pricing, with traders selling stocks and dollar bonds - but prices later stabilized and the local stock market closed over 3% higher. Investors said this would outweigh any worries about Milei, despite some of his heterodox pledges, including to axe the central bank and dollarize the economy. Milei faces a significant challenge still to turn the primary election win into a successful run to the presidency. The central bank also increased the benchmark interest rate to 118% from 97%.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Javier Milei, Patricia Bullrich, Milei, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Sergio Massa, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Milei's, Walter Stoeppelwerth, Shamaila Khan, Rowe Price, Samy Muaddi, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, Economics, Kimberley, Peronist, Investors, Gletir SA, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Jorgelina, Thomson Locations: Argentina, Argentine, MERV, Rosario
REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/Illustration/File PhotoNEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Investors in Argentina's financial markets, where bonds and the peso slid on Monday after central bank moves following a surprise primary election result, said the vote had a silver lining: it would likely hasten long-called-for economic reforms. The result initially introduced uncertainty into asset pricing, with traders selling stocks and dollar bonds - but prices later stabilized and the local stock market closed over 3% higher. Investors said this would outweigh any worries about Milei, despite some of his heterodox pledges, including to axe the central bank and dollarize the economy. Milei faces a significant challenge still to turn the primary election win into a successful run to the presidency. The central bank also increased the benchmark interest rate to 118% from 97%.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Javier Milei, Patricia Bullrich, Milei, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Sergio Massa, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Milei's, Walter Stoeppelwerth, Shamaila Khan, Rowe Price, Samy Muaddi, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Argentine, REUTERS, Economics, Kimberley, Peronist, Investors, Gletir SA, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Jorgelina, Thomson Locations: Argentina, Argentine, MERV, Rosario
Japan’s Q2 GDP grows fastest in more than two yearsMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the export-driven momentum in growth is unlikely to be sustained. Exports expanded 3.2% in the second quarter led by car exports and inbound tourism, while capital expenditure was flat. Strong U.S. and European demand has also supported exports while the post-COVID boom in foreign tourists has given the economy a much-needed tailwind. That boost in external demand, or net exports, added 1.8 percentage points to second quarter growth. It doesn't mean a strong recovery in Japanese economy," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Marcel Thieliant, Thieliant, Takumi Tsunoda, Shigeyuki Goto, Goto, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, TOKYO, Capital Economics, Private, U.S, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, The Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China
A general view of the facade of Banco de la Nacion Argentina (Bank of the Argentine Nation), in Buenos Aires, Argentina December 7, 2021. The official FX rate will be fixed at 350 pesos per dollar until the October elections, the central bank said. The country's sovereign dollar bonds fell as much as 2 cents on the dollar, with the 2038 note leading the slide, according to MarketAxess data. Latin America's third-largest economy has been grappling with a severe economic crisis with sky-high inflation and falling central bank reserves. A candidate needs 45% of the Oct. 22 vote to win outright or 40% and a 10-point lead over second place.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Javier Milei, William Jackson, overvalued, Sunday's, Goldman Sachs, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Ricardo Delgado, Eliana Raszewski, Rodrigo Campos, Jorge Otaola, Medha Singh, Adam Jourdan, Bernadette Baum, John Stonestreet, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: de la Nacion Argentina, Bank of, Argentine, REUTERS, LONDON, Capital Economics, Investment, JPMorgan, Gross, Milei, Peronist, Economy, Analytica, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Qatar, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Agustin Marcarian BUENOS AIRES, MERV, Argentine, refinance, Washington, Rosario
This pool image distributed by Sputnik agency shows Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with the Tver region governor at the Kremlin in Moscow on August 9, 2023. The Russian ruble slid past 100 to the U.S. dollar on Monday, nearing a 17-month low as President Vladimir Putin's economic advisor blamed loose monetary policy for the rapid depreciation. Putin's economic advisor Maxim Oreshkin told Russia's state-owned Tass news agency that the depreciation would normalize in the near future." A weak ruble complicates the restructuring of the economy and negatively affects the real incomes of the population. In the interests of the Russian economy — a strong ruble," he said, according to a Google translation.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Putin's, Maxim Oreshkin, William Jackson, Jackson Organizations: Sputnik, Kremlin, Russian, U.S, greenback, Bank of, Tass, Federal State Statistics Service, Capital Economics Locations: Tver, Moscow, Bank of Russia, Russia's, Russia, Russian
Japan’s economic growth beats forecasts as exports zoom
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
While the headline GDP data provides some relief to policymakers seeking to balance economic growth with sustainable inflation, it masks underlying weakness in the household sector. Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the export-driven momentum in growth is unlikely to be sustained. Exports expanded 3.2% in the second quarter led by car exports and inbound tourism, while capital expenditure was flat. Strong US and European demand has also supported exports while the post-COVID boom in foreign tourists has given the economy a much-needed tailwind. That boost in external demand, or net exports, added 1.8 percentage points to second quarter growth.
Persons: Marcel Thieliant, ” Thieliant, , Takumi Tsunoda, Shigeyuki Goto, ” Goto Organizations: Tokyo Reuters, Capital Economics, Private, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, The Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Asia, China
A man wearing a face mask as a protective measure against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) walks past the entrance of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, a day after midterm primary elections, in Buenos Aires, Argentina September 13, 2021. The primary, which unusually is an obligatory nationwide vote, defines internal leadership battles and acts as a dry run for the general election. The primary vote four years ago delivered a shock landslide defeat to the government of conservative then-President Mauricio Macri, sparking a crash in bonds, equities and the peso currency that Argentina has yet to fully recover from. Ex-security tsar Patricia Bullrich and Buenos Aires city Mayor Horacio Larreta are vying to lead the opposition, and Economy Minister Sergio Massa is a unity candidate for the Peronists. The country's S&P Merval (.MERV) stock market index, meanwhile, has been soaring, seen as a safe haven for local investors and a refuge from the damaging impact of inflation.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Mauricio Macri, it's, Mauro Natalucci, Rava Bursátil, Patricia Bullrich, Horacio Larreta, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Jorge Otaola, Walter Bianchi, Adam Jourdan, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Peronist, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Argentine, SBS Group, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES, MERV
Official data on Friday showed the economy grew 0.2% in the second quarter, against the consensus for a flat reading in a Reuters poll of economists. The strong showing bolstered bets that the BoE would keep on raising interest rates, given the central bank stressed this month that resilience in the economy was one of the factors that would underpin its judgement. The central bank itself had pencilled in growth of 0.1% for the second quarter. "With much of the drag from higher interest rates still to come, we are sticking to our below-consensus forecast that the UK is heading for a mild recession later this year," said economist Ruth Gregory from consultancy Capital Economics. Reporting by Andy Bruce and David Milliken; editing by William James, Kate Holton and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Sterling, BoE, Neil Birrell, Jeremy Hunt, Ruth Gregory, Andy Bruce, David Milliken, William James, Kate Holton, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of England, U.S ., Reuters, Bank of, Miton, National Statistics, Manufacturing, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, United States
Morning Bid: Soft landing fatigue
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Positive economic data tends to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary sell-off as traders take profits. But Wall Street stock markets ended Thursday flat. Futures point to mild declines for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. The S&P 500 has risen 16% year-to-date. Analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 companies' 2023 earnings by about 15% since the end of last year, Capital Economics says.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naomi Rovnick, Emmanuel Cau, Cau, Ned Davis, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Barclays, Economics, Capital Economics, Ned Davis Research, U.S Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, University of Michigan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tuscany
LONDON — The U.K. economy beat expectations with 0.2% growth in the second quarter, boosted by household consumption and manufacturing output, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. The economy expanded by 0.5% in June, beating a forecast of 0.2% growth. It follows monthly GDP growth of 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April. Output was bolstered by 1.6% growth in manufacturing and 0.7% in production in the second quarter, while services grew by 0.1%. In its most recent monetary policy report, it said it expects quarterly GDP growth to remain around 0.2% in the near term.
Persons: eking, King Charles III, Mike Coop, CNBC's, Coop, Jeremy Hunt, BoE, Ruth Gregory Organizations: National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of, ONS, Morningstar, Bank of England, of England, IMF, Finance, Capital Economics Locations: Germany, France, Italy
The logo of Mexico's Central Bank (Banco de Mexico) is seen at its building in downtown Mexico City, Mexico February 28, 2019. The unanimous decision by the central bank's five-member board is the third consecutive rate hold since Banxico, as the Bank of Mexico is known, halted a two-year hiking cycle in May amid easing inflation. Rate cuts in Mexico are unlikely until late 2023, analysts say, even as central banks begin easing their monetary policy. Annual inflation in Mexico slowed for the sixth consecutive month in July, official data showed on Wednesday, landing at 4.79%, but still above the central bank's target. In recent weeks, central banks in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay have cut their interest rates after aggressive monetary tightening cycles.
Persons: Daniel Becerril, Banxico, Jason Tuvey, Brendan O'Boyle, Sarah Morland, Anthony Esposito, Richard Chang Organizations: Mexico's Central Bank, Banco, REUTERS, Bank of, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Banco de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico, MEXICO, Bank of Mexico, Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay
The reading was also much lower than 679 billion yuan in July 2022. "China’s bank loan growth fell to its lowest in seven months in July, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low," Capital Economics said in a note to clients. Hobbled by weak demand at home and abroad, China's economic momentum has faltered in recent months despite strong bank lending in the first half. Outstanding yuan loans expanded by 11.1% in July from the year before, the lowest so far this year, compared with 11.3% growth the previous month. In July, TSF slumped to 528.2 billion yuan from 4.22 trillion yuan in June.
Persons: Florence Lo, Luo Yunfeng, TSF, Qiaoyi Li, Kevin Yao, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Huajin Securities, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, Central, TSF
American price elasticity stretched to the limit
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The United States may be over the hump on inflation, but consumers aren’t acting like it. Lingering restraint will stretch the power of price elasticity to its limits. Similarly, PepsiCo’s (PEP.O) 14% increase in North American prices of Mountain Dew, Tropicana orange juice and other beverages cost it 4% in quarterly sales. Strong appetites for Oreos and Wheat Thins lifted Mondelez International’s (MDLZ.O) sales 2% in the United States, Canada and Mexico, even as prices climbed 10%. They have climbed 3.5% from a year earlier, surpassing the 3.2% annual increase in the Consumer Price Index.
Persons: Mondelez, Darden, Ricardo Cardenas, Laxman Narasimhan, Marriott, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, of Michigan, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital, Procter & Gamble, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: States, Dew, United States, Canada, Mexico, American
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