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☆ 3 risks to global economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The World Bank on Tuesday raised its 2024 outlook for global economic growth to hold steady at 2.6%, an increase from its previous projection of 2.4% growth. “Four years after the upheavals caused by the pandemic, conflicts, inflation, and monetary tightening, it appears that global economic growth is steadying,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, said in a release accompanying the report. Prospects for the world’s poorest economies are even more worrisome.”Here are three risks the World Bank sees. The World Bank said that spillover risk from the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war could curb global growth by pushing up oil prices and shipping costs. Trade tensions are already brewing between some of the world’s biggest global economic engines.

Persons: ” Indermit Gill, Jerome Powell, ”, Ayhan Kose, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, Joe Erlinger, aren’t, TikTok, John S, James L, Donald Trump, Joe Biden’s, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank, World Bank, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, European Commission, EU, Bureau of Labor Statistics, McDonald’s, Pew Research Center, Knight Foundation, TikTok Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, India, Mexico, United States, France, United Kingdom, China, Beijing

☆ 'Clear path to a soft landing': Here's what Wall Street sees for Fed rate cuts after May inflation came in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors cheered a soft May inflation report, which could pave the way for Fed easing this year. Rate cuts in September are "overwhelmingly likely," one economist said. AdvertisementSome Wall Street analysts predict the Fed's first cut could come as soon as July, though most see a rate cut in September as the most likely scenario. "But rate cuts starting by September should now be cemented as overwhelmingly likely." Investors are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak later Wednesday afternoon, which should give markets more guidance on the path of rate cuts.

Persons: —, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Ryan Severino, BGO, Jerome Powell, Weinand, David Russell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The monthly rate rose 0.3% in April while the annual rate was 3.3%. Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve's inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting. Though the Fed doesn't use the CPI as its main inflation indicator, it still figures into the calculus.

Persons: Dow Jones, Price, Robert Frick, Joseph LaVorgna, FOMC Organizations: department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Treasury, Dow Jones, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, CPI, Nikko Securities, Commerce Locations: U.S

☆ Inflation unexpectedly cools off as the Fed decides its next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the gas index rose 2.2% from May 2023 to this past May, higher than the 1.2% year-over-year increase in April. The food index rose 2.1% for the 12 months ending May after it was consistently seeing year-over-year increases of 2.2%. More specifically, the food at home index rose 1.0% for the 12 months ending May after a 1.1% increase. Meanwhile, the food away from home index rose 0.4% in May from the preceding month and 4.0% year over year in May. Inflation measures like the CPI suggest US inflation is still too high although these rates look a lot better than back in 2022.

Persons: —, it's, Elizabeth Renter, David Kelly Organizations: Service, Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, CPI, BLS, Housing, Morgan Asset Management

☆ Even with food prices flattening out, the cost of dining out is still going up
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But menu prices, a source of frustration for budget-conscious consumers, are still going up — even as restaurants brag about their discounted meals. In that time prices ticked up 0.2% at limited service spots, which include fast casual and fast food joints. Grocery prices rose 1% in the 12 months through May. The increases, particularly in fast food prices, have caused customers to pull back on spending and complain online, eroding the sector’s reputation for affordability. In February, overall food prices remained flat for the first time since April 2023.

Persons: Joe Erlinger, Justin Sullivan, Rice, Milk Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, McDonald’s, KFC, Starbucks Locations: New York, Burger King, Ukraine, Texas

☆ Biden cheers cooling inflation ahead of key Fed interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"Prices are still too high, but today's report shows welcome progress on lowering inflation," Biden said in a statement. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics report also showed that the annual inflation rate fell to 3.3% in May, down from 3.4% in April and 3.5% in March. The numbers also came in cooler than economists had expected, with those surveyed by Dow Jones having predicted a 0.1% increase in prices and a 3.4% annual rate of inflation. "Wages are rising faster than prices, and unemployment has remained at or below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years," said Biden. "I know many families are feeling squeezed by the cost of living, which is still too high," he added.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Dow Jones Organizations: Wednesday, of Labor Statistics

☆ CPI report: Inflation slowed in May, hinting at welcome relief for consumers
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Falling gas prices kept inflation in check following a 0.3% gain in April. “Adding to the good inflation news, core services inflation (excludes energy services) printed its mildest monthly increase since September 2021,” Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, wrote in a note issued Wednesday. On an annual basis, shelter inflation slowed a tenth of a percentage point to 5.4%, which is its lowest rate since April 2022. Still, those costs continue to run hot for consumers, with transportation services prices up 10.5% from a year ago and car insurance up 20.3%. Soft CPI boosts chances for Fed cutsThe CPI, which tracks average change in prices for a basket of goods and services common to consumers, is the most widely cited inflation metric.

Persons: ” Philip T, Powell, They’re, ” Kathy Bostjancic, Indiana University’s Powell, it’s, ” Sean Snaith, ” Preston Caldwell, Tool, “, ” Scott Anderson Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Federal, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Reserve, CPI, Transportation, University of Central, Soft, Fed, Morningstar, BMO Bank Locations: “, Indiana, University of Central Florida

☆ Where’s inflation really heading? Traders and economists are using this real-time inflation gauge to get ahead of the curve
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The inflation rate the government arrives at also impacts how much you receive in Social Security benefits and likely is a factor in determining your pay. The government also has a much longer history of producing inflation reports with extremely thorough standards. Like PCE and CPI, Truflation assigns relative importance values to categories to mirror how an average consumer’s income is allocated. That’s why small increases in the cost of housing can end up having big impacts on the overall inflation rate. How Truflation data is being usedWall Street traders were the first group drawn to Truflation, Rust said.

Persons: Truflation, Hilton, Stefan Rust, Rust, “, ” Danielle DiMartino Booth, Richard Fisher, Booth Organizations: New, New York CNN, Index, Federal, Social Security, PCE, CPI, Amazon, Walmart, Nielsen, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, CNN, Dallas Fed, QI Research Locations: New York, Zillow

☆ Fed meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during the conference celebrating the Centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington D.C., United States on November 08, 2023. None of those numbers are dramatically different from the April readings, and still show inflation running well above the Fed's 2% target. Central bankers prefer the Commerce Department's measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, a broader measure that also accounts for changes in consumer behavior. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. The Fed meeting

Persons: Jerome Powell, Celal Gunes, Jonathan Pingle, Pingle, tinker, Jack Janasiewicz, —, Janasiewicz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, of Research, Statistics, Governors, Federal, System, Washington D.C, Getty, Anadolu, Federal Reserve, UBS, CPI, Investment, Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, United States, Anadolu

☆ Here's what investors expect from the stock market after the Fed decision Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Broadly speaking, market observers expect that investors have already priced in how the Fed may proceed with interest rates. So long as this week's Fed meeting sticks to the consensus view, many observers expect stocks will breathe a sigh of relief. "This is one of the busiest of the days on Wednesday," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.Riley Financial. Possibility for surprise Of course, the Fed meeting still has the potential to surprise investors. ET Wednesday while the Fed meeting wraps up at 2:00 p.m. and Powell's press conference starts a half hour later.

Persons: shrugging, Hogan, Dave Sekera, it's, Riley's Hogan, ChairJerome Powell, Powell, hasn't, Brian Nick, Nick, —, I'd, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Joshua Roberts Organizations: Federal Reserve, B.Riley, Morningstar, Fed, Macro, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nvidia, Thornburg Investment Management, Federal Locations: U.S, Washington ,

☆ Up to 65% of workers with these jobs are middle class—and some don't require a bachelor's degree
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | In Kamaronmcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But the middle class may be more occupationally ambiguous, especially since a middle class income can range from $49,720 to $149,160 in the U.S., according to Pew Research's definition and based on the latest Census Bureau income data. Pew defines the middle class as households earning between two-thirds and double the median income, which was $74,580 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Since over half of U.S. households were estimated to be in the middle class as of 2022, Pew says, it makes sense the jobs that offer those middle class incomes would vary. But some positions and industries tend to have higher shares of middle class workers. Notably, many of the jobs that are likely to ensure a middle class salary may not require a college education.

Persons: Pew Organizations: Pew, . Census, Survey, Armed, Workers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Defense, Public, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Is a recession coming? Economists say look at women’s lips
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Estee Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder created the lipstick index during the economic downturn following September 11, 2001. In fall 2001, US lipstick sales increased by 11%. “The lipstick index has been substituted with the moisturizing index,” said Freda. But data shows that more expensive prestige beauty sales are outpacing mass, lower-priced beauty sales. What do you see dominating the beauty market in the second half of the year?

Persons: Estee Lauder, Leonard Lauder, Fabrizio Freda, ”, Freda, “, Sephora, Bell, Neela Montgomery, Laura Mercier, We’ve, it’s, Skincare, It’s, we’re, Inflection’s, OpenAI, Sarah Myers West, ” West, Brian Fung, Jerome Powell, Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, CNN, Federal Trade Commission, Microsoft, FTC, Justice Department, Google, Nvidia, DOJ, US Department of Treasury, OPEC Monthly, Federal Reserve, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Signet Jewelers, Federal Locations: New York, Asia

☆ A shortage of young men in the workforce could weigh on housing, Social Security, and growth for years to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewAmerica's job market is mysteriously short of young men. Zack Mabel, a research professor at Georgetown University, theorizes that falling labor force participation among young men could impact the economy for at least several decades. AdvertisementStraining the economyThe economy appears to already be feeling the decline in male workforce participation. Besides the years following the pandemic, US workforce participation rate hasn't been that low since the 70s, World Bank data shows. There's no clear answer for how to get young men back into the workforce.

Persons: —, Carol Graham, That's, Graham, They're, Zack Mabel, Mabel, Meredith Whitney, Whitney, they're Organizations: Service, Brookings Institute, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Georgetown University, World Bank, Bank, Wall, Brookings, Government, Social Locations: Brookings

☆ The Covid-19 pandemic worsened a child care crisis, and it's costing U.S. businesses billions
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-08 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Policy advocates argue that child care, including for infants and toddlers, is an economic issue that affects all Americans, not just those with young kids. That is up from $57 billion in 2018, before the pandemic exposed and exacerbated holes in the system for working families and the companies that rely on them. Part of the nationwide solution is supporting what the group calls the "workforce behind the workforce" — early child care providers. "Supporting the early childhood workforce could include such things as making sure child care providers have access to benefits. "Programs that support additional training and education for child care providers are important as well."

Persons: Nancy Fishman, Fishman Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, American, ReadyNation, CNBC

Nearly 78% of foreign-born men were in the labor force, compared to about 66% of native-born men. Foreign-born men had weekly earnings of $1,051, compared to $1,238 for native-born men, while foreign-born women had weekly earnings of $899, compared to $1,025 for their native-born counterparts. The foreign born were more likely to work in service, construction and maintenance jobs, among other occupations, which often pay less. Some 3.6% of the foreign born were unemployed last year – the same share as the native born. Just over 15% of foreign-born workers were White, and nearly 11% were Black.

Persons: Mario Tama Organizations: Getty, Foreign, of Labor Statistics, Labor Force, - Locations: American, Los Angeles , California, America

☆ Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on June 03, 2024 in New York City. Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, the data at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn't have to rush to lower interest rates. Even with the unemployment rate rising to 4% in May, the labor market appears vibrant. However, on the other side of the mandate, inflation is still running well above the Fed's target. Most gauges have prices rising annually at about a 3% rate, down significantly from the peaks of mid-2022 but still running hot.

Persons: I've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Labor Statistics Locations: New York City

☆ US economy added a whopping 272,000 jobs in May
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

At a time when Americans and the Federal Reserve are clamoring for clear-cut data about the state and trajectory of the economy, Friday’s jobs report was much more opaque than everyone had hoped. Employment fell in the household survey, while unemployment increased to just shy of 6.5 million and pushing the unemployment rate to the threshold of 4%. Service-providing industries accounted for the bulk of the month’s job gains, with health care and social assistance continuing to lead the way, with 83,500 jobs added. “Don’t get overly spooked by the rise in the unemployment rate,” Bunker wrote. “The labor market is still gliding toward a soft landing.”

Persons: ” Dean Baker, “, I’ve, Diane Swonk, ”, Wall, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, CEPR’s Baker, ” Baker, ” Thomas Simons, Jeffries, Nick Bunker, Bunker, “ Don’t, ” Bunker Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Center for Economic, Policy Research, of Labor Statistics, KPMG, That’s, Index, Traders, BLS, Service, North America

☆ U.S. adds a much-better-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May, but unemployment rate edges up to 4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the first time it has breached that level since January 2022. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.5%, down 0.2 percentage point. The survey of households used to compute the unemployment rate showed that the level of people who reported holding jobs fell by 408,000. A more encompassing unemployment figure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.4%. The household survey also showed that full-time workers declined by 625,000, while those holding part-time positions increased by 286,000.

Persons: Dow Jones, you've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Joe Raedle Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty Locations: U.S, Miami , Florida

☆ Here’s where the jobs are for May 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The three sectors, respectively, added 68,000, 43,000 and 42,000 jobs, similar to trends seen over the past year. The U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs for the month , coming out significantly higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 190,000. Job growth in May was surprisingly strong, pushing back on lingering fears of a broader economic slowdown and likely slowing the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting timeline. On the other hand, social assistance employment trended higher as it added 15,000 last month, below the sector's average of 22,000 jobs per month seen over the last year. Investors walked away from the report discouraged that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in June, noting that the increase in job growth and above-average wage growth paints a picture of a fairly strong consumer.

Persons: Dow Jones, That's, Sonu Varghese Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Investors, Federal Reserve, Carson Group Locations: U.S

☆ Why lifestyle creep can cause HIFIs to spend 'every cent they make,' according to a financial planner
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation and the rising cost of living in the US are partially to blame for HIFIs precarious financial situation. HIFIs' spending psychology comes from wanting to belongKnox said that there's often a disconnect between how much money HIFIs make and how much they can afford to spend. Much of HIFIs' spending psychology comes from wanting to belong, Knox said. People want to be able to afford the same clothes or concert tickets as their friends and family, so they keep spending money. AdvertisementSmall spending changes can boost future wealthMany people underestimate how much small spending changes can impact their overall wealth, Knox said.

Persons: —, HIFIs, Zers, Natasha Knox, Knox, there's Organizations: Service, DINKs, Sherwood News, Business, Financial, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Sherwood

☆ Middle-class Americans are falling behind
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Middle-class income growth has lagged behind that of the upper class since 1970, according to a Pew Research Center report published May 31. There are signs that middle-class Americans are dialing back their spending. Fast food joints, a mainstay dining destination for middle-income consumers, are leaning into discounts to placate frustrated diners. Kohl’s that same month reported weak first-quarter results, underlining how middle-income consumers are pulling back spending on non-essential clothing and discretionary merchandise at department stores. Economic growth has been anemic in recent years, squeezing living standards and starving public services of funds.

Persons: ”, Jennifer Jones Austin, Thomas Kingsbury, Narendra Modi, Diksha Madhok, Peeyush Mittal, Modi, ” Shilan Shah, ” Read, Hanna Ziady, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Keir Starmer, Tony Blair, Starmer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Pew Research, Living Coalition, Data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Matthews Asia, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Capital Economics, Conservative Party of, European Union, Labour Party, National Health Service, Labour, Conservative Party Locations: New York, India’s, India, United Kingdom, China, San Francisco, Beijing, Washington, Ukraine

☆ Young job seekers are finding it tougher to find employment, despite a bustling labor market: 'It was brutal'
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Larock's experience comes at a time when, at least on the surface, the jobs market has continued to glide along. But worries are growing that the labor market is beginning to show cracks. Welcome to the good news-bad news labor market, where the collective experience is positive but not as much for individuals in particular groups. "But the bad news is that new entrants to the labor market are faring less well," Peng added. While Peng characterized the jobs market as "strong overall," she said there are "soft soft spots" that are particularly hitting "new entrants to the workforce."

Persons: Samantha McCloud, Victoria Garcia, Jessel Rincon, Irfan Khan, Julianna Larock, Larock, Jacqueline Novogratz, Michael Novogratz, Julianna LaRock, nonfarm, It's, Goldman Sachs, Elsie Peng, Peng, Molly Huang, it's, Huang, David Pakula, Cory Stahle, Joanie Bily, Bily, grads, Ethan Mariano, Mariano Organizations: Temple City High School, Los Angeles Times, Investment Partners, University of Delaware, Fordham, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, Penn State University, Vanguard, Gettysburg College, American University, State Department Locations: Temple City , CA, Wilmington , Delaware, New York City, New York, Horsham , Pennsylvania, U.S, Washington ,, Hazleton , Pennsylvania

☆ Why Friday’s jobs report could be one for the record books
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —The US job market showed a softer side in April when just 175,000 jobs were added, marking one of the weakest months in the past three years. It was also well shy of economists’ expectations (for 235,000 jobs added) and sharply lower than the 315,000 net gain for March. A separate report released Thursday showed that fewer job cuts were announced in May than both the month and year before. Foreign-born workers: In addition to high labor force participation rates among prime working age individuals, specifically prime working-age women, the US labor market is benefiting from a boom in immigrant workers. Some of these workforce moves typically come at the end of the school year, meaning the May jobs report and June report could show the effects.

Persons: It’s, we’ve, Elizabeth Crofoot, ”, aren’t, Crofoot, Dean Baker, that’s, Julia Pollak, “, ” Andrew Challenger, Ryan Sweet, CEPR’s Dean Baker Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Center for Economic, Policy Research, “ Employers, Department of Labor, Challenger, Secondary School Emergency, Oxford Economics Locations: State

☆ Here's what to expect from Friday's big jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will be looking to May's nonfarm payrolls report for more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve can ease up in its battle against inflation. "The jobs report for May is now particularly consequential," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. "A weaker reading [of less than 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4% or more] would be a final piece of evidence that the slowdown will continue. Citi expects that the report will show just 140,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate hitting 4% for the first time since January 2022. Markets currently are pegging the first rate cut to come in September, with one more on the way in December.

Persons: nonfarm, Dow Jones, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S, payrolls

☆ Fed policy hasn't cooled the labor market and a 'serious consumer recession' could strike if services jobs tumble, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's aggressive inflation fight hasn't worked to cool off the job market, and the central bank risks sparking a "serious" downturn for US consumers, according to real estate billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht. Sternlicht said high interest rates haven't loosened the job market even in the most rate-sensitive areas like construction. Related storiesJobs in the healthcare industry have climbed 1.4 million since March 2022, the month the Fed first began raising interest rates. The Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer risks further weakening the job market. Other Wall Street forecasters have been warning of the risk of recession, especially as interest rates look poised to stay higher for longer.

Persons: —, hasn't, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Jerome Powell, He's Organizations: Service, Starwood Capital, Business, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Challenger, New

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