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Toronto home prices rise in March as new listings tumble
  + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
TORONTO, April 5 (Reuters) - Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home prices increased in March from February, with listings falling at a faster rate than did sales in comparison to a year ago, in the first look at the market since the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hikes. The BoC raised interest rates eight consecutive times before moving to the sidelines last month. Sales tumbled 36.5% from a year ago, while new listings fell at a steeper rate, down 44.3%, indicating a tightening of market conditions. "As we moved through the first quarter, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Members were increasingly reporting that competition between buyers was heating up in many GTA neighbourhoods. ($1 = 1.3443 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
But before we get too intergalactic, this morning we're stopping off in the commercial real estate space. In the wake of March's bank tumult, commercial real estate has frequently been noted as the next domino to fall — and one corner of the market is already showing signs of stress. A few things to remember:Higher interest rates have made it more expensive for both American households and large commercial real estate owners to buy or refinance property. Small and medium-sized banks hold 80% of US commercial real estate debt outstanding. What are the biggest risks, in your view, facing the commercial real estate market for the second quarter of 2023?
Aussie central bank fix will paper over inflation
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
MELBOURNE, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Australia’s central bank is getting the builders in – literally and figuratively. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 1960s Sydney headquarters is currently clad in scaffolding, part of what is supposed to be a two-year, A$200 million-plus ($135 million) renovation. For a central bank, the RBA is particularly quirky. Another major task for the review panel was assessing how the bank combats inflation, which hit 7.8% in the year to December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers on March 31 received the final report on the review of the country’s central bank that he unveiled last July.
The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 6.3% higher at $84.93 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, jolted markets with plans to cut more production. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3412 per greenback, or 74.56 U.S. cents, its biggest single-day advance since Feb. 10 and its strongest level since Feb. 16. Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 1.5 basis points at 2.884%, while the gap between it and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by four basis points to 55.1 basis points in favor of the U.S. bond. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
[1/2] A sign board displaying Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) stock information is seen in Toronto June 23, 2014. of 0.3%TSX up 0.6%March 31 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index edged up on Friday as investor sentiment gained steam after data showed the domestic economy grew more than expected in January. A Statistics Canada report showed that the Canadian economy performed better-than-expected in January versus December, driven by broad gains in both goods and services industries. ET (1410 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 130.39 points, or 0.65%, at 20,071.38. "The strength in January is consistent with an economy that remains resilient," said Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist at Edward Jones Investments.
OTTAWA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy grew more than expected in January and is seen expanding further in February, data showed on Friday, results that are likely to fuel concern by the central bank that inflation has yet to be fully tamed. The economy gained by 0.5% in January, ahead of analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after contracting 0.1% in December, Statistics Canada said. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to pause interest rate hikes in March after increasing them at eight consecutive previous meetings. With the key overnight rate now at 4.5%, the bank said it would not raise rates again if inflation came down as forecast. While inflation has eased, falling to 5.2% in February from a high of 8.1% last year, the economy is expanding faster than the central bank had forecast in January.
NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against most major peers on Wednesday, reversing some of its recent declines, and gained sharply against the yen, which was volatile as the end of the Japanese fiscal year approaches. Improving risk sentiment and investor hopes that central banks can once again turn their attention toward fighting inflation was helping support the dollar, Given said. The dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen, which remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. "A decent amount of USD/JPY flow today is end of quarter related," Monex USA's Given said. The dollar was 1.37% higher at 132.71 yen .
Bank of Canada 'ready to act' in event of extreme market stress
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, followed by Credit Suisse's rescue, is prompting central bankers to closely monitor the potential for banking stress to trigger a credit crunch. "The Bank's mandate to promote the stability of the financial system means that we're ready to act in the event of severe market-wide stress and provide liquidity support to the financial system," Gravelle said. This is the first time the Bank of Canada has commented on the banking turmoil in the U.S. and Europe. For now, the banking stress in the United States appears under control. At its peak, the central bank had C$440 billion in government bonds, and it now has about $C200 billion.
JULES BOUDREAU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MACKENZIE INVESTMENTS"The surprise was more on the revenue side more than the spending side. Prior to this budget we were not eligible for the carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) investment tax credit, but they have now broadened the eligibility parameters." "The big open question, heading into this budget was how was Canada going to react to the Inflation Reduction Act ... MARK ZACHARIAS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF CLEAN ENERGY CANADA"We thought today's budget was generally excellent and it sets Canada on a path for prosperity. "The investment tax credits for clean tech manufacturing positions Canada as a leader, particularly in zero-emissions vehicles."
March 28 (Reuters) - Canada's Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO) said on Tuesday it would acquire Spartan Delta Corp's (SDE.TO) oil and gas assets in Alberta's Montney region for C$1.7 billion ($1.24 billion). Crescent Point shares dipped 0.7% in Toronto, while Spartan stock gained nearly 8%. Crescent Point said it is looking to reduce net debt by about C$1 billion over the next 12 months and may also sell assets. Crescent Point also produces oil in the province of Saskatchewan. Crescent Point raised its production outlook to 160,000 to 166,000 boepd from the earlier forecast of 138,000 to 142,000 boepd.
Central banks stick to rate hikes with eye on market turmoil
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Overall, 10 developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,290 basis points (bp) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics1) UNITED STATESThe Fed raised rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, continuing its most aggressive series of hikes since the 1980s. After setting its policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%, the Fed hinted it may soon pause rate rises. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.6% in March, the highest since May 2012, but hinted rate hikes may be over for now.
TSX futures edge higher as bullion prices gain
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
March 23 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's main stock index were slightly up on Thursday as bullion advanced but lower crude oil prices kept a lid on gains for the commodity-heavy bourse. March futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.2% at 7:11 a.m. Crude oil prices fell on fears of weakening demand, while safe-haven assets like gold rose. ETGold futures : $1,980.9; +1.6%US crude : $70.28; -0.8%Brent crude : $76.19; -0.7%U.S. ECONOMIC DATA DUE ON THURSDAYInitial Weekly Jobless Claims due at 8:30 a.m. ETFOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES:TSX market reportCanadian dollar and bonds report CA/Reuters global stocks poll for Canada ,Canadian markets directory($1 = 1.3681 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj KalluvilaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Sounding more upbeat about the outlook for the country's slow pace of economic growth, the BoE's nine rate-setters voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.25%. "The MPC will continue to monitor closely any effect on the credit conditions faced by households and businesses, and hence the impact on the macroeconomic and inflation outlook," it said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its main interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases. However, it said it expected wages to rise slightly less than it had previously forecast, as inflation expectations fell. The BoE was the first major central bank to start raising rates in December 2021 and until this week had seemed likely to join the Bank of Canada which this month stopped raising borrowing costs.
[1/2] A general view of the Bank of England (BoE) building, the BoE confirmed to raise interest rates to 1.75%, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. Most economists had believed inflation was on course to fall steadily, after hitting a 41-year high above 11% in October. But Wednesday's data - showing inflation rising to 10.4% in February rather continuing its descent - immediately turned Thursday's announcement into an almost one-way bet on a quarter percentage-point increase in Bank Rate. As recently as Tuesday, investors were split almost 50-50 on whether the BoE would leave Bank Rate unchanged for the first time since November 2021. The European Central Bank last week stuck to its plans and raised rates by 50 basis points despite the Credit Suisse turmoil.
TORONTO, March 22 (Reuters) - When the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank this month to pause raising interest rates after its most aggressive tightening campaign in history, indebted consumers heaved a sigh of relief. Consumers' reluctance to spend could challenge an economy facing headwinds from a record pace of interest rate hikes as retail spending accounts for about 5% of Canada's Gross Domestic Product. The Royal Bank of Canada's consumer spending tracker released on March 9 showed discretionary spending "held up" in February, driven by air travel demand. While it is unclear what part of that has been deployed, that kitty will help Canada to avoid a deep recession, she noted. "They're trying to lock in these interest rates," Porter said.
Morning Bid: Leaning back to Fed hike, UK inflation jolt
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Two weeks of U.S. and European banking stress and failures leaves the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in the unenviable position of choosing between stabilising financial systems and fighting still historically high inflation. On top of that, the latest quarterly economic projections from Fed policymakers may reveal a big dispersion of views. Beyond the Fed, the dire UK inflation reading seems to have solidified expectations of another BoE rate rise on Thursday and a further move later in the year. If nothing else, it underlines in red ink just how all central banks are totally dependent now on incoming data evidence on what's happening in the real economy. With the U.S. dollar lower across the board ahead of the Fed meeting, sterling hit its highest level since early February.
On March 8, the bank became the first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign, leaving the key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected. It vowed to hold off on further hikes as long as inflation continued to ease in line with its forecasts. In January the bank said it expected inflation to ease to 3% at around mid-year and to slow to 2% next year. But during the deliberations ahead of the announcement, the bank noted that services inflation "is proving sticky", according to minutes from the policy-setting meeting released on Wednesday. The five-member governing council remains "concerned about the risk that inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target," the minutes said.
March 21 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) on Tuesday asked its employees to return to office three or four days a week, as Canada's largest lender eases its COVID-19 protocols. In an internal memo to employees seen by Reuters, RBC said that "starting May 1, employees in hybrid work arrangements will come together in person for the majority of the time. This means you have the option to work remotely for one to two days each week, depending on your team". Nearly three years after the onset of the pandemic, companies across the globe have ramped up efforts to bring more employees back to offices. RBC Chief Executive Officer Dave McKay last year asked its employees to return to office more often, but said the hybrid work approach was "here to stay".
read more"The U.S. contagion is unlikely to spill over to Canadian banks as the issues in U.S. are unique and specific to certain business models or lending activities," said James Shanahan, banking analyst with Edward Jones to Reuters. REGIONAL BANK SCRUTINYCanadian banks emerged stronger from the 2008 global financial crisis due to prudent regulations and since built a reputation for financial stability. The Canadian banks have kept their focus on domestic lending and majority of their earnings come from serving local clients. But in recent years, Royal Bank, BMO, TD Bank and CIBC (CM.TO) have expanded into the United States by buying regional lenders to benefit from strong growth in second-tier U.S. cities. However, last week the regional bank's stock was hit after the SVB collapse.
New Zealand's kiwi was 0.3% lower at $0.6250, giving up an earlier gain of as much as 0.7%. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan announced joint action to enhance market liquidity. "I'm not so pessimistic, but still we have to wait and see how much we will see risk contagion from Europe," he said. The yen last traded at 131.79 per dollar , keeping intact a 2.5% gain from last week. The euro was about flat at $1.0671 and sterling was little changed at $1.2189, both erasing earlier small gains.
New Zealand's kiwi was 0.3% lower at $0.6250, giving up an earlier gain of as much as 0.7%. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan announced joint action to enhance market liquidity. The yen last traded at 131.79 per dollar , keeping intact a 2.5% gain from last week. The euro was also about flat at $1.0668 and sterling was little changed at $1.21775, both erasing earlier small gains. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin took a breather after its surge to a nine-month high of $28,474 on Sunday, last trading 1.8% weaker at around $27,552.
[1/2] Logos of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 19, 2023. UBS will buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) and agreed to assume up to $5.4 billion in losses as it winds down the smaller peer's investment bank after a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities. The U.S., UK and Swiss central banks are all scheduled to meet in the week ahead. Even after Sunday's news on Credit Suisse, optimism from analysts was laced with caution and some scepticism. Others drew attention to the losses likely to be suffered by Credit Suisse junior bondholders.
"The U.S. contagion is unlikely to spill over to Canadian banks as the issues in U.S. are unique and specific to certain business models or lending activities," said James Shanahan, banking analyst with Edward Jones to Reuters. REGIONAL BANK SCRUTINYCanadian banks emerged stronger from the 2008 global financial crisis due to prudent regulations and since built a reputation for financial stability. The Canadian banks have kept their focus on domestic lending and majority of their earnings come from serving local clients. But in recent years, Royal Bank, BMO, TD Bank and CIBC (CM.TO) have expanded into the United States by buying regional lenders to benefit from strong growth in second-tier U.S. cities. However, last week the regional bank's stock was hit after the SVB collapse.
How bad is the banking crisis?
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Spriha Srivastava | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The Fed along with five other central banks announced coordinated action to reassure global banks. To make sense of those acronyms, GFC refers to the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, EZ crisis is the Eurozone crisis of 2009 onwards, temper tantrum likely refers to the taper tantrum of 2013, and the Covid 3/20 shock is when global markets went haywire in the early stages of the pandemic. So, you might be wondering: Just how bad is the banking crisis? "It means the banking crisis we've seen over the past few weeks has started a new chapter rather than reaching its ending." After the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) made it necessary for all European banks to issue CoCo bonds.
Currency markets showed some cautious optimism after global authorities moved to stem contagion from a simmering banking crisis, with the safe haven dollar on the back foot and the yen tumbling amid a rebound in Treasury yields. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar jumped to a two-week high, while the euro edged higher for a third straight day. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan announced joint action to enhance market liquidity. The Australian dollar climbed 0.3% to $0.6721, and earlier touched $0.6743 for the first time since March 7. Although the banking system is the currency markets' most immediate focus, a Fed rate-setting meeting on Wednesday looms large.
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