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That's according to the "January barometer" from the "Stock Trader's Almanac," which argues that "as the S & P 500 goes in January, so goes the rest of the year." The S & P 500 has managed to trade above the 4,900 level already this month and is currently up 3.3% in the new year. That's enough to put the broad market index trading above Wall Street strategists' average 2024 target of 4,914, according to the CNBC PRO Market Strategist Survey. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 Election Year Notably, 2024 is a U.S. presidential election year. By comparison, the S & P 500 typically gains 15% in those years with a higher January.
Persons: Stocks, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, Outperformers, Dow, Stovall, What's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wall, CNBC, Market, Survey, Bank of America, Dow Jones Locations: U.S
Chinese stocks are starting to turn around. How to play it
  + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Chinese stocks ended the week with four straight days of gains — a rare upswing after a dismal start to the year. "Investing in China, you have to have an active strategy," he said, emphasizing the need to focus on industries that receive policy support. All three are listed on mainland Chinese stock exchanges. In the past six months, foreign investors have pulled around $30 billion from mainland Chinese A shares, the report said. Citi analysts also include adidas and Kone in their basket of European stocks with China exposure.
Persons: David Chao, Chao, Pan Gongsheng, Edward Chan, Schelling Xie, Xie, CRRC, , Peter Alexander, Alexander, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Asia Pacific, People's Bank of China, PBOC, . Federal Reserve, Financial Regulatory Administration, CNBC, HSBC, Hong, Citi, adidas, Kone Locations: Asia, Japan, Invesco, China, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, U.S
At Meta, in CEO Mark Zuckerberg's words, 2023 was the "year of efficiency," and the stock jumped almost 200% alongside 20,000 job cuts. AI demand is so great that some tech companies are cutting headcount in parts of the business to invest more heavily in developing AI products. Phil Spencer, CEO of Microsoft Gaming, appears at the Political Opening of the Gamescom conference in Cologne, Germany, on Aug. 23, 2023. Within tech, a wide variety of companies, big and small and spanning the consumer and enterprise markets, are eliminating jobs. But, he added, there's an "enormous base" of small and mid-sized tech companies across the U.S., and that in some cases contractors, freelancers and overseas workers are being hit particularly hard.
Persons: Peter Kramer, They've, Mark Zuckerberg's, Zeile, Phil Spencer, Franziska Krug, Sundar Pichai, Bob Carrigan, Nigel Vaz, Publicis Sapient, Salesforce, Meta's, " Vaz, Levi Strauss, Bob Bakish, Tim Herbert, Herbert, there's, Vaz, Michael Bloom, Annie Palmer, Jennifer Elias Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Investors, Activision Blizzard, SAP, Microsoft Gaming, Facebook, Citigroup, Paramount, Commerce Department, Gross Locations: Cologne, Germany, U.S
Europe's power grid is in dire need of an upgrade, Goldman Sachs says, naming two stocks it expects to benefit from the network's expansion and modernization. "Power grids sit in the sweet spot of electrification: besides an accelerating top line, we highlight attractive risk-adjusted returns, which are usually set on a 'cost plus' basis." Stock picks Goldman Sachs said the way to play this theme is through pure plays and green energy majors. The green energy industry has had a tough time of it since 2021 as global central banks hiked interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. "We believe power network activities represent an incremental leg in our re-rating thesis for Green Energy Majors," Goldman's analysts added, naming Enel and SSE as buy-rated stocks.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alberto Gandolfi, Stock, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Clean Energy ETF, Energy Index, Green Energy, Milan Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, Global Renewable Energy Locations: Europe
Europe is set for a "weak stagnation" that will dampen the market, but several sectors and stocks stand out to UBS as good plays this year as growth stabilizes and inflation slows. "Our macro outlook for Europe is for a weak stagnation that takes European equities modestly lower but delivers another year of actionable divergences between sectors and stocks," UBS analysts led by Gerry Fowler wrote in a Jan. 19 note. "In 2024, we think the factors that will perform are domestic (smaller companies), quality and growth," the analysts wrote, adding that slower growth and lower yields should reduce the headwinds for the valuations of growth stocks. 'Well-positioned, domestic, quality, growth companies' "Well-positioned, domestic, quality, growth companies" that UBS has given buy ratings include Spanish clothing company Industria de Diseno Textil, British bakery chain Greggs and online real estate platform Rightmove as well as French construction player Vinci . It has a buy rating on ASML Holdings , SAP , Infineon Holdings and Capgemini , giving them potential returns of 22%, 17%, 40% and 10%, respectively.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, Vinci, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, International Monetary Fund, Industria de Diseno Textil, Software, Gartner, ASML Holdings, SAP, Infineon Holdings Locations: Swiss, Europe, Spanish, China
Barclays analyst Dan Levy, for example, lowered his target on Tesla shares to $225 from $250, saying that a "cloudy path ahead reinforces some downside risk." Guggenheim left a sell rating and $132 price target in place. "We expect consensus estimates to come down on what will likely be interpreted as a cautious outlook with reduced visibility," wrote Citi's Itay Michaeli. Michaeli lowered Citi's Tesla price target to $224 from $255 a share, implying about 8% upside from Wednesday's close. The bank remains on the sidelines with a neutral rating on Tesla shares, awaiting a "more convincing entry point," he wrote.
Persons: Tesla, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, Joseph Spak, Dan Levy, Wells Fargo's Colin Langan, Emmanuel Rosner, Guggenheim, Ronald Jewsikow, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, Itay, Goldman Sachs, Mark Delaney, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall Street, UBS, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, EV Locations: Wednesday's
As electric vehicle automakers like Tesla and BYD continue to make headlines, Goldman Sachs is watching the battery sector closely. Stocks with buy ratings Goldman's buy-rated stocks in the sector include South Korean companies LG Chem, Samsung SDI and LG Energy. It has a target price of 710,000 Korean Won ($530) on LG Chem and 800,000 Korean Won on Samsung SDI, representing potential upside of 81.6% and 123.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, It expects the price of LG Energy to hit 550,000 Korean Won in the next 12 months, representing 47.3% upside. The investment bank has a buy rating on the stock at 20.47 yuan ($2.84), giving it around 6.2% upside.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Nikhil Bhandari, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: EV, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, LG Energy, Won, U.S, Gotion High Tech, Mast, Recycling, Gotion, Tech Locations: EU, 2025E, South, Korean, United States, Switzerland
Deutsche Bank is moving to the sidelines on shares of Netflix despite another solid quarter from the streaming giant. Analyst Bryan Kraft views the company as the "best story in media among the vertically integrated producers/programmers/distributors," but nevertheless downgraded Netflix to a hold rating. He said that its leadership position and good news look "fully priced" in to the stock already after its 65% runup in 2023. The downgrade from Deutsche Bank comes in the wake of another strong quarter from the dominant player in entertainment media . Netflix topped revenue estimates and added 13.1 million subscribers, easily topping the 8 million to 9 million additions expected by Wall Street analysts.
Persons: Bryan Kraft, Kraft, it's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Netflix, Wall Street, Kraft
Certain stocks are poised to perform better under Republican or Democratic leadership this coming November, according to Strategas. On Wednesday night, former president Donald Trump clinched the victory in the New Hampshire primary over former South Carolina Gov. The win now means it's "highly likely" Trump will secure the Republication presidential nomination, according to Strategas analyst Daniel Clifton. US-China trade tensions are likely to continue regardless, but we see greater escalation under Trump," Clifton said. Other names that could outperform under Democratic leadership include renewable energy company NextEra Energy , automation provider Rockwell Automation and beverage company Constellation Brands .
Persons: there's, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Daniel Clifton ., Clifton, Trump, Biden, Kinder Morgan, Tesla, Joe, Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Republican, Democratic, South Carolina Gov, Trump, L3Harris Technologies, JPMorgan, Democrat, Verizon Communications, GOP Congress, California's, Tesla, Biden, Apple, NextEra Energy, Rockwell Automation, Constellation Brands Locations: New Hampshire, L3Harris, Tuesday's, China, Clifton, U.S, LSEG
With fourth quarter earnings season in full swing, Wolfe Research released a list of potential stocks that are best left alone. The companies fall into the bottom 20% of their sector earnings quality and are likely to underperform in 2024, according to Wolfe. The company's average earnings quality score for the trailing four quarters came in at 5. Its average earnings quality score for the trailing four quarters amounted to 25. The payments platform earned an earnings quality score of 10 and an average score in the trailing four quarters of 30.
Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Tesla, Elon Musk, Chewy, Goldman Sachs, Trevor Young, Morgan Stanley, BTIG, Oppenheimer, Dominick Gabriele, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Tesla, Argos Holdings, Barclays, PayPal, Paypal, Mizuho Locations: F2H24
Rising geopolitical headwinds and the potential for political turmoil could combine to thwart investors' hopes for the Federal Reserve to enact sharp interest rate cuts this year, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists. Markets have been betting that the Fed likely will start lowering its benchmark short-term borrowing rate by May or even as early as March. JPMorgan's investment team said the calculus could be important for investors as stocks and other asset classes look for direction. In recent days, multiple Fed officials have made remarks insisting that they are in no hurry to start cutting rates. For the full year, traders have gone from a strong chance of six cuts to a coin-flip between five and six.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Chase, JPMorgan, U.S, Fed, European Central Bank, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Market, Traders, Commerce Department Locations: 1H24
Microsoft earnings due out later this month could serve as the next major test for artificial intelligence as investors hunt for signs that the buzzy technological innovation is actually boosting companies' bottom lines. Nvidia has been an exception, blowing past Wall Street's guidance for the past few quarters due to AI tailwinds . The remarks led some Wall Street analysts to fret over a delayed ramp-up in AI availability. "There are going to be some outliers, but for the most part there is more risk-reward related to AI going into this earnings period." More loosely, Wall Street analysts have expressed concerns about AI monetization and expectations across the sector heading into the fourth-quarter reporting period.
Persons: Paul Meeks, Merrill Lynch, Piper Sandler, OpenAI, Amy Hood, Copilot, Micrsoft, Meeks, Amy Kong, Nancy Tengler, Gene Munster, Corient's Kong, Wolfe, Alex Zukin, Dubravko, Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Merrill, Merrill Lynch Investment, Nvidia, Wall, Baker School of Business, The, Investments, Asset Management, Munster, Wall Street, Tech Locations: OpenAI, hasn't
The Wall Street bank named the following five companies in its European "Conviction with Catalysts" list of stock ideas that offer strong upside potential. Enav Topping the list with the biggest upside potential is Enav , an air traffic controller company based in Italy. UCB Barclays believes Belgian biopharmaceutical company UCB can beat 2023 sales expectations thanks to its new psoriasis drug Bimzelx. Although the drug has struggled in the U.S. over side effect warnings, Barclays sees signs of healthy global demand. Volkswagen Barclays believes Volkswagen offers turnaround potential in 2024 after a disastrous 2023 and 2022.
Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Enav, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, UCB Barclays, Belgian, UCB, ABN Amro Dutch, ABN Amro, ABN, Vivendi, Volkswagen Barclays, Volkswagen Locations: Italy, U.S
There's another reason to be bullish on Royal Caribbean , according to several Wall Street analysts. Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo called Icon of the Seas a "record-busting spectacle of superlatives," and believes it will be a big driver of profits. That implies a 50% yield premium to the broader Royal Caribbean fleet, Rollo wrote in a note Monday. Morgan Stanley has an equal weight rating on Royal Caribbean. RCL 1Y mountain Royal Caribbean's one-year performance It is also another step by Royal Caribbean to tap into the ongoing trend of multigenerational travel.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jamie Rollo, Rollo, James Hardiman, it's, Matthew Boss, Robin Farley, Farley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Royal, cabanas, Royal Caribbean, Citi, JPMorgan, UBS, Royal Beach Club Locations: Hideaway, Royal Caribbean, Bahamas
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan named their key China internet picks and the themes to watch right now. Focus is on resilient content leaders, unique growth opportunities, and AI enablers," Morgan Stanley said in a Jan. 18 note. Baidu Morgan Stanley described Baidu as the "best AI play" in China. Morgan Stanley pointed to its steady operating margin expansion and record-high subscription revenue growth in the second to third quarter of 2023. Morgan Stanley's price target is $150, or 67.7% potential upside.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Pinduoduo, Morgan, Baidu Morgan Stanley, Baidu, NetEase, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Alpha, Baidu Locations: China, United States
Nvidia looks poised for a pullback after its strong start to 2024, according to Wolfe Research. When the stock market opened Monday, Nvidia reached Wolfe's recent target of $600 a share, leaving it "now deeply overbought and due for a consolidation," said Rob Ginsberg, Wolfe's technical analyst, in a note to clients. The RSI measures the magnitude and speed of price movements, with any figure over 70 signaling that a stock is overbought and potentially ripe for selling. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia shares have gained nearly 20% this year If Nvidia is vulnerable to a pullback, it's far from alone, according to Ginsberg. Wolfe is not inclined "to chase vertical moves," and at such times would rather harvest some gains, the analyst wrote.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Wolfe, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Wolfe Research, Devices, Dow Jones, Micro Computer
The S & P 500 finally surpassed its prior all-time high from January 2022 on Friday, confirming the start of a new bull market that began in October 2022. But while the market continued to build on those gains early Monday, some technical analysts are worried that cracks are beginning to show in the broad market index. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 in the last 12 months BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky forecasts a pullback for the S & P 500 before it reaches the key 5,000 level, or just around 3.5% above current prices. Around 73% of the S & P 500 is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, down from more than 90% in late December, according to David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. "New index highs lead to fatigue," said Roth Capital Partners chief market technician JC O'Hara.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, David Keller, JC O'Hara, O'Hara, There's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, pullbacks, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Downside, Capital Partners Locations: Japan, Brazil, India, U.S, China, Europe
The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to offer a safe haven from macroeconomic and earnings concerns ahead of final quarterly results from companies, according to Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley, however, cautioned that the outlook for drug pricing reform in the U.S. poses risks for the sector. Shares of Indivior , argenx , AstraZeneca , Merck , Lonza, Sweden's Sobi, Novo Nordisk and Sandoz Group were among those listed by Morgan Stanley with a "buy" rating. In a bull case where Sublocade hits $2.2 billion in sales by 2030, Morgan Stanley sees shares rising further to 3,500 British pence. Novo Nordisk Shares of Novo Nordisk , a leader in diabetes and obesity drugs, offer a 9.4% upside, according to Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mark D Purcell, Sweden's, Sublocade, Thibault Boutherin, Morgan, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Bank of America, AstraZeneca, Merck, Lonza, Novo Nordisk, Sandoz Group, AstraZeneca AstraZeneca, British pharma, EU Locations: U.S, argenx, Novo, Indivior
The most recent bear market was a garden variety bear, Stovall said. The decline, which lasted roughly 15 months from its October 2022 low, took 25.4% of the S & P 500 value from peak to trough. Regardless of what kind of bear market it was, a post-high five move still took place once a bull run was confirmed. The S & P 500 gained 5% on average over the following two to two-and-a-half months. He noted the S & P MidCap 400, S & P SmallCap 600, and Russell 2000 are all more than 10% below their previous record highs.
Persons: that's, Sam Stovall, it's, Stovall, Russell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Research, CFRA Research
Dividend stocks in the Asia-Pacific beat the broader market in the fourth quarter of 2023 — bucking the trend in other regions. According to Morgan Stanley, the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan High Dividend Index outperformed the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index by 1.76% in the fourth quarter last year. For the Asia-Pacific ex Japan region, Morgan Stanley produced a screen of what it called its "conviction list" of dividend stocks, using these criteria on a 12-month forward-looking basis: Likely to outperform the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan High Dividend Index. Low risk of having dividend cuts, as rated by Morgan Stanley analysts. Here are some stocks that appeared in Morgan Stanley's screen.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MSCI Asia, Asia, Fed Locations: Asia, Pacific, MSCI Asia Pacific, Japan, Asia Pacific
This year could be a banner one for dividends, according to Bank of America Securities. For one, high dividend yield tends to lead in recoveries and global wave upturns, she wrote. Dividends also bridge a gap between "muddled macro signals" that impede a full cyclical/small cap recovery as the Federal Reserve pauses and/or cuts rates, Subramanian said. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Thursday he expects policymakers to start cutting rates in the third quarter of 2024. "We expect more cash to revert to equity income as retirees reach for yield as cash yields ebb," Subramanian said.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Raphael Bostic, There's, Humana, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, ETF, Elevance Health
Thank the "Magnificent Seven" stocks for the S & P 500 's bounce to record levels in 2024 . "It's a bet on secular growth," said Truist's Keith Lerner. "AI stocks … are going bonkers," he said. "People see a secular growth story even with all the different type of cross-currents in the economy, interest rates and markets," he said. "However, strong secular tailwinds from Gen AI could extend the rally well beyond the typical 2-year up-cycles, in our view."
Persons: Truist's Keith Lerner, It's, Adam Sarhan, Lerner, , Ed Yardeni, Raymond James, Srini Pajjuri, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Investments, Devices, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Semiconductor, Yardeni, SOX, stoke
"We also believe the demand for memories will remain strong thanks to the growing demand for generative AI and more broadly for compute," the bank's analysts wrote. AllianceBernstein expects the share price of Samsung to hit 92,000 Korean Won ($68.44) in the next 12 months, giving it potential upside of 29.4%. "BYD's unparalleled cost structure and vertical integration of powertrain will enable it to achieve a dominant market share in this segment," the bank's analysts wrote. AllianceBernstein's target price of 334 Hong Kong dollars ($42.71) gives it around 61.5% upside. AllianceBernstein gave the giant a price target of $170, giving it around 33% upside.
Persons: Bernstein, Ann Larson, AllianceBernstein, Tesla, Holdings AllianceBernstein, PDD, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Street, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix The South, Samsung, Won, SK Hynix, Hong, Holdings, PDD Holdings Locations: Asia, China, Hong Kong
Bitcoin has been struggling since the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds and may continue to for some time, according to Wolfe Research. But much like it responded previously at the top of this trading range, we expect consolidation and decline to follow, which is why we would recommend taking some profit at these levels." "Bitcoin is at the top of its trading range," he added. An RSI reading of 70 and higher indicates that an asset is overbought, while a reading of 30 suggests it's oversold. Ginsberg added that bitcoin is overbought on a long-term weekly basis too, a condition that the cryptocurrency has seen only twice before.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe's Rob Ginsberg, it's oversold, Ginsberg, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Investors Locations: U.S
Those themes can "drive earnings momentum throughout this year, especially in 2H24," Morgan Stanley's analysts led by Lee Simpson wrote in a Jan. 11 research note titled "2024 Outlook: buy on the dips." The stocks are listed in the order of Morgan Stanley's preference in the table above. ASML The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker made Morgan Stanley's list, with a 12-month price target of 700 euros ($764.26), giving it around 7.8% upside. They expect the stock to "outperform on recovery" and thus gave it a target price 48 euros, or 20.8% upside potential. VAT Group This German company was among Morgan Stanley's top stocks, thanks to its exposure to the memory segment.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Lee Simpson, Morgan Stanley's, Besi, STMicroelectronics Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall Street Bank Locations: 2H24, upcycles
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