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A fund that bet correctly last year on surprise reversals in British and Japanese bonds has a new contrarian stance. BlueBay Asset Management believes bond markets have underestimated hawkishness from global central banks. The fund has a new contrarian bet as BlueBay believes bond markets have underestimated hawkishness from global central banks. More monetary tightening is also anticipated from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. So far, central bank officials have committed themselves to remaining data-dependent to inform future rate hikes.
Mike Edwards believes that markets haven't fully priced in the upside from China's reopening. In the long run, Edwards said that China can maintain its global presence even without the US. The end of China's zero-COVID policy and the country's subsequent economic reopening has undoubtedly been one of the biggest tailwinds for markets so far this year. But while investors have welcomed this news with open arms, Mike Edwards — deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers — doesn't believe that they've realized yet just how much upside the reopening of the Chinese economy could bring the stock market. Europe's outperformance over the US so far this year can, in part, be attributed to its significantly larger exposure to the Chinese economy.
And speaking of cold hard reality, the Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk is trying to raise fresh funds to pay off some of the pricier bits of his $13 billion Twitter loan. New fundraising to the tune of $3 billion could help Musk repay the obligations he took on in his Twitter takeover. For every quarter that goes by without refinancing, the interest rate goes up by an additional 0.50 percentage point, regulatory filings show. That said, if Twitter can pay back those unsecured bridge loans, meeting its debt obligations would be much more manageable. What are some ways you think Elon Musk could boost revenue at Twitter?
A top-1% value fund manager shared four rules that have helped him achieve success. Fund manager Matthew Fine's old-school, valuation-driven investing process helped his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVFX) outperform 99% of competitors last year, according to Morningstar. And so far in 2023, the Third Avenue Value Fund is in the top 19% of its category with a market-crushing 10.6% return. Fine is patient with the stocks he's added to his portfolio because he's so careful in choosing them. 8 top stocks to buy and holdFine shared eight of his favorite stocks to own for the long term.
Here are six energy companies that Davolos believes are strong long-term investments. Expect high inflation to hurt earnings in 2023 and beyondOf all the trends Davolos spotted, one stands out most: inflation will be higher for longer. Most investors assumed that the high inflation of the 1970s and '80s was gone forever after the internet and other technology kept prices down during the previous two decades. Stocks broadly will likely suffer if inflation stays stubbornly high, Davolos said, given that higher prices weigh on firms' profit margins. Energy royalty companies' efficient, asset-light business model gives them lofty operating margins that are the envy of their peers.
The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator to Start the Year
  + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( James Mackintosh | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The mood among the world’s financial elite as they gathered in the mountain resort of Davos, Switzerland, is typically a useful investment indicator: However they feel, do the opposite. Not so much this year. The bankers, executives and politicians were more optimistic, but only relative to how pessimistic they were feeling a few months ago. Just like the markets, they have had a bit of a rally, but are still down in the dumps compared with this time a year ago. They are also puzzled by the same uncertainties that trouble investors.
Yet boring old bonds have just about kept pace, as investors rush to lock in healthy-seeming yields after one of the worst years ever for fixed-income returns. The Federal Reserve's historically aggressive tightening campaign last year gouged debt portfolios but quickly rebuilt the supply of safe yield on offer for today's buyers. I made the case for bonds' value from this perspective in a column here three months ago , just as Treasury yields were peaking. The good news is that "real yields," meaning yields above the market's implied outlook for inflation, remain positive. The American Association of Individual Investors' monthly asset allocation survey for December showed bonds at 14.3%, below the survey's long-term average of 16%.
But right now Lindzon isn't following the tech-focused investing approach that brought him so much success over the previous two decades. While he still sees opportunities to make money, he's much more cautious amid a high-interest-rate environment that led to the worst year for tech stocks since 2000. "You can't do a startup today and hire a hundred engineers because you can't raise enough money," Lindzon said. "I'm constructive in that money isn't coming out of the market completely," Lindzon said. Instead, Lindzon would advise investors to consider equal-weight stock market indexes, given that they offer diversification but aren't bogged down by mega-cap tech stocks.
Investing in Space: Looking up in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Michael Sheetz | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC's Investing in Space newsletter offers a view into the business of space exploration and privatization, delivered straight to your inbox. After ending on a bit of a downer ("A year to forget for space stocks"), I'm entering 2023 with what feels like contrarian optimism. The space industry is chock full of opportunities and milestones to look forward to over the next twelve months, as the market for 21st century space companies continues to evolve and mature. Here are the top three space business news items I'm watching for and, shocker, all three are about getting to orbit. Space companies that are beyond the development phase and are expanding could distinguish themselves with investors as a discounted opportunity in a shifting market.
Traders gather on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016. There is little optimism for stocks among Wall Street's foot soldiers, according to the latest fund manager survey from Bank of America. As BofA pointed out, that means the so-called "pain trade" in the stock market is higher, and any sudden rally would catch investors off-guard. But Wall Street survey be damned, stocks seem to be on the brink of a rare, bullish trifecta. The surge has pushed the world's most largest crypto token to levels not seen since before the fall of FTX.
But the question is this: Will those investors return any time soon, especially with sentiment still so sour and stocks at risk of a major selloff? Total net assets in money market funds rose to $4.814 trillion in the week ended Jan. 4, according to the Investment Company Institute. At the same time, money market funds are actually generating a few percentage points of income for the first time in years. Consider that sweep accounts, where investors hold unused cash balances in their brokerage accounts, can park those amounts in money market mutual funds or money market deposit accounts. To me this was people basically selling the market at the end of the year, and they just parked it in the money market funds.
Last year's bear market left many investors deep in the red, but hedge fund manager Neal Berger bucked the trend. 'My bible is the price action' That's why the veteran fund manager is sticking to his tried-and-proven playbook. "As a trader, my bible is the price action. I'm a student of price action and I'm going to be trading the market in accordance with the longer-term trends," he said. He noted that the one-year trend of all asset prices, such as stocks, bonds and crypto, is pointing downward.
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Fund managers' allocation to U.S. equities collapsed in January, with 39% saying they had an underweight position, the most since October 2005, a BofA survey of global investor views on Tuesday showed. Global growth optimism hit a one-year high, while inflation expectations have peaked, according to the global Fund Manager Survey of investors, who have combined assets under management of $772 billion. The survey showed investors turned bullish on euro zone equities, flipping their allocation to a 4% net overweight in January from a 10% net underweight in December. Fund managers also moved into emerging market stocks, increasing their net overweight to 26%, the highest since June 2021. The survey also showed inflation staying high as the biggest "tail risk" and the top "contrarian trades" as being 'long' stocks, U.S. stocks and tech versus 'short' bonds, emerging market stocks and utilities.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR.N) is still looking to grow its headcount even as it scrutinizes its spending and confronts economic uncertainty, its chief executive told Reuters. Economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum largely expect a recession this year. Asked about potential cuts, Karp said Palantir was doing well in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada while evaluating spend in slower markets. The top cloud providers are Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Google (GOOGL.O), though Karp said his company is "cloud agnostic." Reporting By Jeffrey Dastin in Davos, Switzerland; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Here are 33 stocks that will thrive as inflation continues to decline in 2023. But Golub is perhaps most encouraged by the divergence in goods and services inflation. As a result, goods inflation has cratered after initially soaring while services inflation remains high. Another key driver of services inflation is wage growth, Golub said. Stay cautious about stocks despite lower inflationBut despite his optimistic view about the economy, Golub isn't overly bullish on stocks.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel believes the stock market is on the cusp of a new bull market. Siegel thinks most of Wall Street is too bearish on stocks as they expect a big sell-off in the first half of 2023. "When everyone is on one side, they're usually wrong," Siegel told CNBC on Friday. Aside from the contrarian nature of Siegel's bullish market call, he does see other reasons for stocks to move higher this year. And even if a mild recession hits the economy, it could already be priced into the market given its steep decline in 2022, Siegel said.
Several big banks will kick off earnings season for the sector on Friday, yet it's the smaller, under-the-radar names that are most loved by Wall Street. For instance, only 54% of analysts covering Bank of America say the stock is a buy, while 58% of those covering JPMorgan rate it a buy, according to FactSet. To find bank stocks expected to outperform this year, CNBC Pro screened for the names most loved by analysts. They also have at least 8 analysts covering them. About 80% of the analysts covering the stock give it a buy rating, including Piper Sandler's John Barnidge.
Zhao said Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, said the company increased head count in 2022 from 3,000 people to "almost" 8,000. In 2023, Binance plans to increase the number of staff by between 15% and 30%, Zhao said at the Crypto Finance Conference in St. Moritz, Switzerland. Zhao said Binance needs to get the company "well-organized" ahead of the next crypto bull run and admitted the exchange is "not super efficient." The industry was plagued last year by collapses of major projects, liquidity issues, bankruptcies and the high-profile failure of crypto exchange FTX. Binance had a big role to play in FTX's collapse.
With the dollar weakening, it's time for U.S. investors to get more serious about going abroad for stock market gains. Europe, China, Japan, Asia are actually going to move from losers to winners," he said. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) are invested in shares of Chinese companies. Chinese stocks make up 33% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) represents that index.
Julian Emanuel at Evercore says stocks performed very well over the last two quarters. However, he says oversold, steady-earning stocks could still trade higher after earnings. Investors won't walk away from 2022 with a lot of happy memories, but Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI says there were two surprisingly positive periods for stocks in an otherwise difficult year. The reason, he wrote, is because investors thought things might get even worse, and stocks and bonds were both oversold as a result. But he doesn't think that will happen again, which means he thinks this earnings season will be harder to endure.
"This is the definition of a soft landing," Apollo Global's chief economist Torsten Slok said on CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Friday. The price hikes at Conagra were crazy. Those price hikes more than made up for higher costs. We may be reaching the limits of price hikes, however: Constellation Brands said consumers are pushing back against beer price hikes. If December's consumer price index, out Thursday, is benign (below the 6.5% year over year growth expected), the market could move even higher.
Investors’ Best Friend in 2022: The Dogs of the Dow
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Hardika Singh | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2022 suffered its worst year since 2008. The Dogs of the Dow broke away from the pack in 2022. The popular contrarian investment strategy outpaced the Dow Jones Industrial Average last year for the first time since 2018, while investors sought havens during the wild ride in markets.
Retail traders unloaded $3.1 billion in assets this past week, making it the third worst week of net selling in history, according to JPMorgan. Overall, retail traders dumped $4.1 billion in single stocks. Tesla was hit particularly hard, with retail traders selling $811 million of the stock. Retail traders embraced the electric vehicle maker throughout the volatile year. However, some Wall Street analysts have pointed to his takeover of Twitter and his sale of 22 million Tesla shares as problematic for the stock.
In that note, RBC shared its quarterly refresh of its top 30 "high-conviction, long-term ideas," which includes global names with an outperform rating by RBC analysts. Recovery in individual portfolios may be slow-moving, but RBC's top picks have a track record of beating the global market. The firm's price target on Ferrari implies about 32% upside. Cybersecurity stock Palo Alto Networks has the highest potential return of the group, with a price target of $233. The firm has a $165 price target on the stock, nearly 60% greater than Tuesday's closing price.
Neal Berger's hedge fund returned 163% in 2022 betting on the end of the easy money era, according to a Bloomberg report. Berger said more pain is still to come for global markets and everything will continue to decline. "The reason why I started the fund was that central bank flows were going to change 180 degrees. Per the report, Eagle's View has about $700 million in assets under management, and roughly $200 million in the Contrarian Macro Fund. In particular, his Contrarian Macro Fund is mostly betting against Europen and American assets, though it also has hedges that will pay returns in upswings.
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