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Global markets reached levels of turbulence rarely seen this week, but traders at Goldman Sachs are unfazed and don't believe it is a sign of a big danger lurking. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday suffered their biggest one-day declines since 2022. The market then roared back with the S & P 500 posting its biggest gain since 2022 on Thursday. After the late-week comeback, the S & P 500 is only down for the week by about half a percent. .VIX 5D bar Wild week for VIX Goldman traders expect gains going forward, but they see the path higher as a "choppy" one.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's, Goldman, VIX Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, LLY Organizations: Goldman, Dow Jones, Monday, JPMorgan, pharma
New York CNN —After a prolonged period of calm, financial markets went into a tailspin this week. One trigger for the selloff was the unraveling of the Japanese yen carry trade. Some investors say there could be more volatility to come, particularly since it’s unclear how much more the yen carry trade could unwind. The carry trade is “enormous. The unwinding of the carry trade and weak labor data came at a delicate time rife with uncertainty for Wall Street.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, , Steve Sosnick, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Dow, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nikkei, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Companies, Federal Reserve, Investors, CNBC, Interactive Brokers, Markets, Republican, Home Depot, Walmart Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Russia
The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, , Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
Bank of America is offering up a selection of stocks to help investors sleep soundly during bouts of market volatility. The picks come on the heels of a roller-coaster week for Wall Street. Here are some of the companies that made the list: Several consumer staples stocks showed up, with the S & P 500 sector up more than 11% this year. PG 1M mountain Shares over the last month Lockheed Martin was another low-beta stock that made the cut. Shares of the aerospace and defense company have rallied more than 21%, outperforming the market year to date.
Persons: Stocks, Savita Subramanian, Gamble, Lockheed Martin Organizations: of America, Wall, Bank of America, Walmart, PepsiCo, Procter, Starbucks, Elliott Management, T Bank, Home Depot, Cisco Systems, Consolidated Edison, New Locations: U.S, China, New York
On Thursday, investors in Asia will assess trade data from Japan and interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India. Global equities and currencies plunged earlier this week after the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to their highest levels since 2008, and the U.S. released weaker-than-expected employment numbers. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly down in choppy trading on Thursday after U.S. stock benchmarks fell overnight, while investors assessed trade data from Japan and awaited India's rate decision. "Assuming that the price stability target will be achieved in the second half of fiscal 2025, the Bank should raise the policy interest rate to the level of the neutral interest rate toward that time," the summary read. Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group said in a statement on Wednesday that it would buy back up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion) of its shares as part of its efforts to boost shareholder returns.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Lasertec, Korea's Kospi Organizations: Reuters, The Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of India, Global, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nikkei, Bank, SoftBank, Semiconductor, Isuzu Motors, China's CSI, Cathay, Hong Kong's, Airbus Locations: The Reserve Bank of India, Asia, Japan, U.S, Pacific, Hong, Cathay Pacific
Meanwhile, the yen strengthened 0.6% to 146 against the US dollar, after losing nearly 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. But those fears, as well as a further jump in the value of the yen, are still haunting the market. The volatility in the yen, which was at the heart of recent market turmoil, remains elevated, he added. On Monday, the Nikkei plummeted by the most since 1987, sparking a broader global market sell-off. The narrowing of the interest rate differentials, which had enabled the yen carry trade, could push the yen higher, Kuptiskevich added.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Germany’s DAX, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, , Stephen Innes, Alex Kuptsikevich, Masamichi Adachi, Innes, Taiwan’s Taiex, Hang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, CAC, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, FxPro, Federal, Fed, UBS, UBS Chief Investment, Kospi, Hang Seng Locations: Hong Kong, Europe, Japan, unwind
Dollar gains after U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession. Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown. The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Eugene Epstein, Uchida, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Vasu Menon, bitcoin, Ether Organizations: Labor Department, Bank of Japan's, Bannockburn Global Forex, U.S . Federal, Swiss, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, North America, Moneycorp, ., Bannockburn
.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation
New York CNN —US stocks wavered Wednesday, giving back earlier gains as investors tried to recover from the week’s bruising losses. The Dow fell 234 points, or 0.6%, after gaining more than 400 points earlier in the day. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment, closed in “extreme fear” territory. The Cboe Volatility Index — Wall Street’s fear gauge — which measures bets on expected stock market volatility, fell to 27. The Magnificent Seven companies lost $615.6 billion in value on Monday, according to S&P Global data.
Persons: Dow, , Sean Frank Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, . West Texas, Brent, Dow, Cloud Equity Group Locations: New York, Japan
Hong Kong CNN —Asian markets made solid gains Wednesday, with Japanese shares reversing early losses after a central bank official played down the prospect of an immediate hike in interest rates. The gains follow days of volatility, which saw the Nikkei suffering Monday its biggest daily loss since 1987. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” he was quoted as saying in a speech to executives in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate. The central bank has hiked interest rates twice this year in a bid to contain inflation. Decades of extremely low interest rates in Japan had seen many investors borrow cash cheaply there before converting it to other currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Kospi, Hong, Taiex, Uchida, , Olesya Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, US, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, South, Hakodate, , Japan, Europe, London
Investors highlighted their portfolio companies and startups they had no financial ties to. Leena Rao, who oversaw the list and leads BI's VCs and startups team, estimated about 80% of the startups included are focused on AI. AdvertisementiStock; BIAs differentiated as AI startups try to be, the market has undeniably become oversaturated. Big Tech reform is coming, but Washington won't be the one doing it. Congress can't or won't act, so people who want Big Tech companies to change their ways are trying to do it through the courts .
Persons: , Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Here's, Kimberly White, Chelsea Jia Feng, Leena Rao, BI's, That's, It's, Arindam Sandilya, Paul Dietrick, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Adam Mosher, Mosher, YouTube's, Jimmy Donaldson, Alyssa Powell, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Boldstart Ventures, TechCrunch, Healthcare, Getty, JPMorgan, FX, UBS, BI Prosecutors, Big Tech Locations: Minnesota, we're, Washington, New York, London
Here's how Sony did in the June quarter, versus LSEG consensus estimates:Revenue: 3.01 trillion Japanese yen ($20.5 billion), versus 2.8 trillion yen expected. Operating profit: 279.11 billion yen ($1.9 billion), versus 275.35 billion yen expected. Gaming, for which Sony is well-known thanks to its popular PlayStation consoles, banked revenues of 864.9 billion yen in the quarter, up 12% from 771.9 billion yen a year ago. For full-year 2024, Sony revised its forecast upward saying it now expects to hit 12.6 billion yen of sales. Sony also upped its operating profit forecast by 3%, noting it expects to reach 1.3 trillion yen in consolidated operating profit for the full year.
Persons: Carter Organizations: Sony, PlayStation
Stocks are rising after Monday's meltdown as Japan assured it will not hike rates if markets are unstable. Some analysts say BOJ's recent rate hike triggered Monday's sell-off as traders unwind yen carry trades. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Just last week, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates and struck a hawkish stance that signaled more increases ahead following years of ultra-low and even negative rates. On Wednesday, Shinichi Uchida, a deputy governor at the Bank of Japan, said the central would not hike interest rates when the financial and capital markets are unstable.
Persons: , Shinichi Uchida Organizations: Service, Bank of Japan, Business Locations: Japan
Asia-Pacific markets extended gains on Wednesday, tracking Wall Street benchmarks that snapped a three-day losing streak overnight. It further sold 3.87 trillion yen worth of dollars on May 1, ministry data showed. Customs data showed on Wednesday that China's imports in July grew faster-than-expected, while export growth missed forecasts. Exports in U.S. dollar terms rose by 7% for the month compared to a year ago, missing economists' expectations for a 9.7% increase. Meanwhile, U.S. dollar-denominated imports rose by 7.2%, far more than the economist's forecast of 3.5%.
Persons: Canon, Shinichi Uchida Organizations: Nikkei, Mitsui, SoftBank, Bank of Japan, Bank, Japan's Ministry of Finance, China's CSI, . Locations: Qingdao Port, Shandong province, Qingdao, China, Asia, Pacific
Yen dives as BOJ plays down chance of hikes, soothing markets
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The yen dropped on Wednesday after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike, soothing investors' concerns that a further jump in the Japanese currency could again rock global markets. The yen fell around 2.5% to a session low of 147.94 per dollar following the comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. "I think it's become increasingly clear that the BOJ hawkish turn last week could be a policy error," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The yen's decline was broad based, with the Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar - all carry trade candidates - surging against the currency.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, it's, Alvin Tan, inching, Rong Ren Goh Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, U.S, Eastspring Investments, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia
When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.
Persons: CNN Business ’, , John Authers, , it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe
SoftBank Group booked a 1.9 billion yen ($12.9 million) investment gain on its Vision Fund tech investment arm in the company's fiscal first quarter ended in June, swinging back into the black. However, the Vision Fund segment as a whole posted a 204.3 billion yen loss, after being in profit in the same quarter last year. The Japanese giant also announced it would buy back up to 6.8% of shares available in the company amounting to up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion). In the year ago quarter, SoftBank posted 159.77 billion yen gain in its Vision Fund. In the March quarter, SoftBank posted a loss of 57.53 billion yen in its flagship tech investment arm.
Persons: ByteDance —, SoftBank Organizations: SoftBank, Corp, Vision Fund, Vision, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Eli Lilly shares declined 1.7% Wednesday after peer Novo Nordisk posted disappointing earnings results before the bell. Investors are weighing if the same fate is in store for Club holding Eli Lilly and its GLP-1 drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. Still, Jim said Eli Lilly shares could fall further after the drugmaker releases its own quarterly results on Thursday. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, Dow, Eli Lilly, , Jim, That's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Novo Nordisk, Club, Novo Nordisk's, CVS, Management
Japan stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after the Nikkei 225 and the Topix dropped over 12% in the previous session. The Bank of Japan raising rates to their highest level since 2008 on July 30 caused the yen to strengthen to a seven-month high, pressurizing stocks. Markets globally were also spooked by fears of a U.S. recession stoked by a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Real wages in Japan also grew 1.1% in June compared with a year ago, the first time that wages have risen in 26 months. Strong wage growth offers more room for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.
Persons: Topix, Korea’s Kospi, Hong, Australia’s, Brent, Dow Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of, Softbank Group Corp, U.S ., South Korean, Samsung Electronics, chipmaker SK Hynix, China’s CSI, . West Texas, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, U.S
A carry trade involves an investor borrowing a currency with low interest rates and reinvesting it in higher-yielding assets elsewhere — taking advantage of that differential to make a financial gain. Investors piled into yen carry trades in recent years, attracted by Japan's low volatility and ultra-loose monetary policy. Global stock markets meanwhile plunged as "safe haven" assets such as the Swiss franc and U.S. Treasurys were bolstered. "You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads," Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a Monday note. Trichet told CNBC Tuesday: "The correction can be seen as a healthy correction, in some respects.
Persons: it's, Jean, Claude Trichet, CNBC's, Treasurys, Kit Juckes, Trichet Organizations: European Central Bank, ., Bank of Japan, U.S, Global, Swiss, Societe Generale, CNBC, Federal Locations: France's, U.S, Europe, United States
Squeeze on carry trades leave currency markets on edge
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The yen was 1% lower on Tuesday at 145.78 per dollar in early trading, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. "Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short lived," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility." The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit versus six rivals, was flat at 102.87 in early trading after touching a seven-month low of 102.15 on Monday.
Persons: Jamie Cox, James Athey, undervaluation Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Harris Financial, Traders, Bank of Japan, Marlborough Investment Management Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, recessionary, Japan, Switzerland, Tokyo
With little data on the horizon, investors will look to Thursday's jobless claims for more clue about the economy. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Tuesday as shaken investors looked to claw back some of the losses incurred in a historic three-day rout. Jobless claims on Thursday will be the next clue about the health of the labor market. If weekly claims come in well past the 245,000 estimated by economists, it could spark another decline for stocks.
Persons: , they're, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Dow, Service, Nasdaq, Bank of America
In today's big story, we're giving a full breakdown of what has been a wild few days for the market . Tech: Big Tech is going through a bit of a mid-life crisis . Big Tech is going through a bit of a . There are a few factors at play here:Big Tech, the backbone of the market, had weaker-than-expected earnings last week. The decision could seriously hurt Google's revenue and may signal more antitrust enforcement to come for other Big Tech companies .
Persons: , Airbnb, Rebecca Zisser, We're, what's, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway, I'm, Claudia Sahm, M, Getty, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jensen Huang, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Griffin, it's, Natalie Ammari, That's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Oracle, Fed, Nvidia, Bank of America, Google Locations: Japan, Berkshire, Omaha, Asia, bitcoin, Florida, New York, London
To be sure, the carnage on Wall Street and in equities markets around the world was real. But Monday’s panic was the Wall Street equivalent of a tantrum from a kid who just got told they can’t have ice cream for dinner. But don’t let the stock market drama fool you: The US economy is still in good shape, despite some turbulence. “And I’m not too worried about Wall Street becoming poor.”Stocks looked to bounce back Tuesday. Wall Street worked itself into a lather when ChatGPT came out two years ago.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Stocks, Dow, Wall, don’t, Rana Foroohar, That’s, it’s, Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, There’s, Beryl, , Beryl didn’t, Aaron Sojourner, ’ ”, ChatGPT, Rob Haworth, ” Haworth Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, Nikkei, of Labor Statistics, Coast, BLS, WE Upjohn, Employment Research, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Federal, Markets, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Bank of Japan, US Bank Locations: New York, Japan
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