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☆ Why the new bull market is headed for more Fed stress after a rate hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Natalie Rose Goldberg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

And even if the Fed does pause, Ferguson says it doesn't mean that more rate hikes aren't coming over the rest of the year. He isn't alone in the view that a Fed pause won't last long. This view is underpinned by, among other things, a labor market that continues to be tight. Others see recent cooling the labor market as a signal the Fed may soon have more need to moderate its rate hike strategy. "The broad picture here is the labor market is cooling in a sustainable way.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, Roger Ferguson, That's, Ferguson, CNBC's, isn't, Michelle Girard, Steve Liesman, Dennis Lockhart, Lockhart, Fed's, Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, — Ferguson, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell's, Rucha Vankudre, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon —, Solomon, Goldman, Frederic Mishkin, it's, Mishkin, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Bank of America, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Fed, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Conference Board, Labor, Lightcast, Former Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: U.S

☆ Companies are worried about a recession, but they’re hanging on to employees anyway
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —US companies wary about their economic prospects are battening down the hatches. Recent job market data shows more and more businesses have taken to “labor hoarding” and maintaining headcounts even as demand softens. Employees work at CannaCraft's March and Ash retail cannabis store in San Diego's Mission Valley neighborhood. Grey Duck’s sales picture will become clearer in the next three months, Bossen said. “We’re going to do whatever it takes to keep that staff employed and productive, even if things slow down,” he said.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, it’s, Ash, Tiffany Devitt, CannaCraft, Ash CannaCraft, “, Devitt, Stephen Juneau, they’re, Matt Bigelow, Gusset Jean, Bigelow, ‘ Waddle, Rob Bossen, Grey, Eli Nord, Bossen, “ We’re, waddle Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Conference Board, Conference, Business, CNN, Golden State, of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA Brands, Gusset Jean Co, Vermont, Company Locations: Minneapolis, ”, headcount, California, Golden, Diego's, CannaCraft, Sonoma County, Juneau, Vermont, Johnson , Vermont, Roseville , Minnesota, China, Roseville

☆ Jeffrey Gundlach sees higher chance of downturn as economic indicators look 'full on recessionary'
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that it looks increasingly likely the U.S. will tip into a recession. The yield-curve inversion has been a reliable recession predictor and signs of a reversal could be indicative of an imminent economic downturn. Meanwhile, Gundlach said ISM supplier delivery delays are near their lowest levels in 30 years, showing greater supply than demand, which further indicates a weak economy. Gundlach said his preferred portfolio mix right now consists of 30% stocks, 60% bonds and 10% real assets. In terms of real assets, Gundlach said he favors gold, even though he's now less bullish than he was.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Goldman Sachs, nonfarm, he's Organizations: DoubleLine, Conference Board, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ A top Wall Street investment strategist breaks down why stocks are setting up for a 22% drop in the second half of the year — and shares 2 signs that show a recession is likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz says a recession is hurtling toward the US economy. He pointed to stocks falling in lockstep with rising unemployment claims in 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1973, and 1969. Today, investors are again doing a poor job of forecasting rising unemployment claims in the months ahead, Kantrowitz believes. Underpinning Wilson's call is an earnings recession this year that investors aren't pricing in. "We first started talking about the coming earnings recession a year ago and received very strong pushback, just like today.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz doesn't, Piper Sandler, it's, Louis, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Venu Krishna, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Albert Edwards Organizations: Energy, Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BNP, Barclays, Conference, Board, National Federal, Independent, of Labor Statistics, Generale's Locations: lockstep

☆ 93% of CEOs are preparing for a recession—here's what it means for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Some 93% of them report that they're preparing for a recession over the next 12 to 18 months, per a recent survey from the Conference Board. It's just another data point in an economy that's in a profoundly strange and confusing place. Although many think the economy is heading for a downturn, we still have strong employment, robust consumer spending and a rising stock market. Generally, a recession is accompanied by high unemployment, a dip in consumer spending and a drawdown in the stock market. Meanwhile, other aspects of the economy, such as a low unemployment rate and robust consumer spending, indicate all systems go.

Persons: you've, That's, It's, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, We've, Sonders Organizations: Conference Board, Investors, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve

☆ Even as inflation rate subsides, prices may stay higher. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The rate of inflation has shown signs of easing, following the highest spike in four decades. Yet the shock of rising prices continues to have an impact on consumers' psyches. The nonprofit think tank's consumer confidence index declined in May amid "gloomy" expectations. Meanwhile, expectations for inflation were stable, but still high, with inflation expected to average 6.1% over the next 12 months. "When anecdotally we ask consumers what's your top concern on the economy, prices and inflation still come out as the top concern," Ozyildirim said.

Persons: Ataman Ozyildirim, Ozyildirim Organizations: The Conference Board, Finance, Social, Conference Board Locations: U.S

☆ Jobs report: What to expect from the May data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But despite all that, the labor market has kept humming right along. And that’s largely expected to be the case, again, in Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May, according to ADP’s monthly National Employment Report, frequently seen as a proxy for the government’s official number. Labor turnover data released Wednesday showed that the US employment market remained tight in April. The government’s May jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, that’s, ” Julia Pollak, “, Pollak, ”, Michael Feroli, Matthew Martin, ” Pollak, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “, ”, Commerce Department, CNN, Labor, JPMorgan, Oxford Economics, Challenger, Conference Locations: Minneapolis, April’s

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The A.I. rally is too narrow
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Everyone else, however, is a bystander reaping no benefits — and that could have implications for broader markets. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Everyone else, however, isn't so much a loser, but a bystander reaping no benefits — and that could have implications for broader markets. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

Persons: Wood, We're, Andrew Smith, Javed Mirza, Ataman Ozyildirim, we've Organizations: NVIDIA, CNBC, . Semiconductor, Nvidia, Marvell, Broadcom, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Delos Capital Advisors, Conference, The Conference Board Locations: Taipei, Dallas, Canada, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The A.I. rally's too narrow
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Persons: Jensen Huang, Wood, We're, Andrew Smith, Javed Mirza, Ataman Ozyildirim, we've Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, . Semiconductor, Marvell, Broadcom, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Delos Capital Advisors, Conference, The Conference Board Locations: Taipei, Dallas, Canada, U.S

☆ US consumer confidence dips to six-month low, labor market views soften
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 102.3 this month, the lowest level since last November, from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. The cutoff date for the survey, which places more emphasis on the labor market, was May 22. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, fell to 31.0, the lowest since April 2021, from 36.9 in April, suggesting the labor market was loosening up. More timely data like first-time applications for state unemployment benefits suggests the labor market remains tight, but is gradually easing. "Investors should expect Friday's job report to reveal emerging cracks in the labor market."

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Jeffrey Roach, Nicole Bachaud, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Social Security, Medicare, Reuters, University of, Republican U.S . House, Sunday, U.S . Labor Department, LPL, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, North Carolina, U.S, Seattle

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Slides 100 Points as Debt-Ceiling Deal in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks were mixed and Treasury yields fell after a tentative deal was struck to raise the U.S. debt ceiling over the long weekend. The next step is for the legislation to be passed by Congress , which could run into procedural hurdles and opposition from lawmakers. Prices declined in some Western markets, such as San Francisco, Seattle and Phoenix. The worst performing sector in the S&P 500 this year led the way lower as fuel prices fell. Natural-gas futures fell 6% to trade at $2.27 per million British thermal units.

☆ Why does Wall Street expect a rate hike in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Not only that, it finally believes the central bank when it says it likely won’t cut rates this year. Futures traders expected a roughly 66% chance of a quarter point rate hike in June as of Friday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s a drastic about-face from even earlier this month, when Wall Street expected the central bank to slash rates multiple times this year starting as early as this summer. “If it comes in hotter than expected, it almost locks a rate hike in” for June, said Heppenstall.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ Economists: US can weather ongoing crises, but recession remains on the table
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In February, the majority of economists said a downturn could start in the first half of the year; now, that’s shifted to the third quarter or later. There was, however, greater consensus on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking counterattack, banking turmoil and debt ceiling uncertainty. “A majority of panelists believes breaching the debt ceiling will not bring on a global financial crisis unless an impasse persists for several weeks. Most respondents believe de-dollarization is not a threat over the foreseeable future.”More than half (55%) of surveyed economists believe the debt ceiling will be raised, 42% believe the debt ceiling will be suspended, while 3% believe the United States will default on its debts. The economists surveyed expect interest rates to remain elevated through the rest of the year, and nearly half expect that the Fed will start cutting rates in the first quarter of next year.

☆ Here's why the US economy is in much better shape than people think, according to top economist Paul Krugman
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is doing better than people think despite widespread recession fears, Paul Krugman said. The top economist pointed to a strong labor market and falling inflation as signs of economic health. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. In an op-ed for the New York Times on Monday, Krugman pointed to widespread pessimism about the US economy, despite indicators that show economic activity is fairly healthy. The odds of a future recession have also been widely publicized through media reports, which could be creating a negative bias.

☆ Stocks week ahead: SVB and Signature Bank execs are set to testify next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs is holding three hearings this coming week centered around the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March. ET : Greg Becker, former chief executive, Silicon Valley Bank; Scott Shay, former chairman and co-founder, Signature Bank and Eric Howell, former president, Signature Bank. ET : Mark Bialek, inspector general, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; Paul Kupiec, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute and more. Since then, the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation have released reports detailing management missteps at SVB and Signature Bank, as well as federal regulators’ own mistakes in properly addressing red flags preceding the banks’ demises. A separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday shows that American households are becoming increasingly frugal.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ The Great Resignation is giving way to the 'Big Stay' as job-hopping slows down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It may be accurate to say the quitting situation is evolving into the "Big Stay," per ADP's chief economist. "The Big Quit of 2022 could be easing into the Big Stay of 2023," Richardson wrote in her recent commentary. "A year later, all three of these dynamics are abating, and the great resignation itself is looking like a thing of the past." Pollak said that "to the extent that there is a big stay, it is not taking place across the economy." Even if the Great Resignation might not be prevalent in all areas of the economy right now, it could emerge again.

☆ American consumers are growing worried about a US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“If policymakers fail to resolve the debt ceiling crisis, these dismal views over the economy will exacerbate the dire economic consequences of default.”The latest survey showed that the university’s consumer-sentiment index fell by 9% in May. Monthly household spending growth tumbled to 5.4% from a revised 7.1% in December, according to the New York Fed’s Household Spending Survey, which is fielded every four months. Michigan’s report showed US household spending was flat in March from the prior month, after limping just 0.1% in February. Stack on top of that the Federal Reserve’s punishing interest-rate increases and still-high inflation, and consumers might just tap out. The Conference Board’s sentiment survey showed that consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans became more worried about the jobs market.

☆ US employees are more satisfied than ever, new survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But a new survey released by The Conference Board on Thursday found that US employees’ job satisfaction overall is the highest it has ever been since the survey began in 1987. Just over 62% of survey respondents indicated overall satisfaction with their jobs, a 2.1 percentage point increase over the prior year’s survey and a 5 percentage point jump over that recorded in 2020. … Across the majority of 26 factors surveyed, employees with hybrid work arrangements report the greatest job satisfaction compared to fully remote or fully on-premises workers,” Board researchers said in their analysis. Survey respondents who had recently changed jobs also were more likely to say they were satisfied. “Overall job satisfaction is 3.6 percentage points higher among those who have found a new job since the pandemic began, compared to those who have not,” Conference Board researchers wrote.

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

☆ Job Market Is Expected to Show More Cooling in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

“We expect a more negative and profound effect of interest rates on the labor market in the second half of the year,” said Frank Steemers, a senior economist at the Conference Board. But job postings have been receding quickly, and the rate at which workers quit their jobs is almost back down to where it stood in 2019. The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that employers had announced job cuts totaling about 337,000 positions this year, concentrated in retail and the technology industry. If a wider economic downturn sets in, job reductions will probably look different than they have in previous recessions. Mr. Steemers recently constructed an index estimating the risk of job losses across various industries.

☆ A US recession looks more and more unavoidable as key parts of the economy slow to a crawl
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For many months now, I've been having conversations and writing about economic indicators that all point to a recession. The US is in the midst of a "freight recession," meaning there's fewer trucks delivering goods around the country. In a call last week, JB Hunt reported a bad earnings miss, and executives said a recovery for trucking looks uncertain. Outside the trucking sector, the classic recession indicators are blaring, too:The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index just dipped for the 12th consecutive month. The New York Fed's Recession Probabilities Model puts the odds of a downturn at 57%, the highest mark since 1982.

☆ The US economy is slowing down. Just look at the freight recession that's sent diesel prices tumbling.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US is seeing a "freight recession," meaning fewer trucks delivering goods across the country. The slowdown in deliveries comes as diesel prices have dropped by roughly half since last year. The American Trucking Association's truck tonnage index dropped to the lowest since August 2021. Wholesale diesel prices in New York Harbor tumbled to $2.65 a gallon from $5.34 last May, per the Journal. And in an earnings call last week, JB Hunt executives sounded the alarm on a "freight recession" as the shipping company missed earnings views and reported across-the-board drops in volumes that sent revenue per truckload down by 17%.

☆ Americans are getting worried about the job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans become more pessimistic about the job market. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which measures attitudes toward the economy and the job market, fell to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March and marking the lowest level since July 2022. “Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term.”That matches government figures showing the labor market has begun to show some cracks. Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, the smallest gain in two years, and job openings fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021.

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