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Investors breathed a sigh of relief late Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that interest rate hikes would remain paused. That pause was welcomed by the market after 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022 brought rates to their highest point in 22 years. But just because Powell decided to keep rate hikes paused for now doesn't mean they can't head higher from here. Higher interest rates tend to be a drag on stocks. Along with each company is its ticker, last closing price, sector, industry, and nominal interest rate beta.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, there's, We're, Subramanian Organizations: Bank of, Bank of America
Lower Treasury yields could be good news for some stocks on Wall Street, according to Jefferies Equity Research. Stocks soared on the news, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted that efforts to tame persistent inflation have further to go. Treasury yields pulled back after the the November Federal Open Market Committee decision, with the benchmark 10-year note falling 15 basis points. With interest rates now seemingly on the backfoot, Jefferies screened for stocks with a negative correlation to the 10-year Treasury — meaning they historically benefit from lower interest rates. Stocks have a negative correlation to U.S. bond yields, notably 5- and 10-year yields Tech behemoth Microsoft is one of the outstanding beneficiaries to a decline in the 10-year.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Jefferies, Peramunetilleke, Piper Sandler, Horton, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, companyies, Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Jefferies Equity Research, Federal Reserve, Labor, Dow, Microsoft, Horton, Jefferies, Blackstone, Vista Equity Partners, Energy Locations: 2H23, Horton
Demand for US bonds from foreign buyers will remain strong, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman said it expects a solid appetite from foreigners for US bonds even as Japan phases out its yield curve control policy. AdvertisementAdvertisementForeign buyers will continue to have a strong appetite for US bonds, even as Japan begins to phase out its yield curve control policy, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, the US corporate bond yields are currently just below 6%, compared to just under 1% for Japanese corporate bonds. And any selling pressure in the US bond market by foreign investors would have to be driven by a confluence of different factors.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, , that's Organizations: Service Locations: Japan
As earnings season grinds on, Wall Street has been pleasantly surprised by the results. Sometimes the pros might be bearish on a stock, while simultaneously raising their earnings expectations for that very same company. Taking advantage of the difference between what Wall Street says will happen and where they expect earnings to go can prove a profitable trading strategy. Just ask Sam Burns, founder and chief strategist of Mill Street Research, an independent investment research firm geared towards institutional investors. Burns will then take those stocks and run them through his proprietary Monitor of Analysts' Earnings Revisions model.
Persons: Julian Emanuel, you'd, Sam Burns, Burns Organizations: Evercore ISI, Mill, Research, Wall, Analysts
Over the span of about a year and a half, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years. The Fed also manages a multitrillion-dollar balance sheet that includes government securities. Here's how that works: The Fed holds assets like Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and loans extended to banks. For over a year now, the Fed has been steadily shrinking its balance sheet to help cool the economy. That reduction is known as “quantitative tightening” or a “balance sheet runoff.”
Persons: that’s, Organizations: Congress, Fed Locations: Treasuries
Druckenmiller said that prior to quantitative easing, which began as part of the government's response to the 2008 financial crisis, stock valuations were typically at about 15-times earnings. The recent spike in Treasury yields have put market interest rates near their highest levels since 2007. A lot do — a stock picker's market," Druckenmiller said. "A lot of people made money in the stock market in the '70s. Not, frankly, unlike what has happened in the stock market in the last year."
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller, I've, we're, Alex Karp, It's, George Soros Organizations: Duquesne Family, Quantum, Duquesne Capital Management Locations: U.S
And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.
Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend
Investors are holding their breath this week as Jerome Powell contemplates his next move in the ongoing battle against inflation. But for investors who'd rather tune out all the noise surrounding inflation and simply focus on finding profitable investments, Bank of America can help. First, they made sure the stocks were worthwhile, searching only for dividend yields that were greater than the 10-year Treasury yield. And finally, they looked for stocks with a positive relative beta to inflation. Along with each stock is its ticker, sector, dividend yield, dividend growth over the last four years, employees-to-sales ratio, relative beta compared to Bank of America's inflation composite, its analyst rating, and its last closing price.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, who'd, Subramanian Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Bank of
For years, the whispered questions have passed from one Wall Street trading floor to the next. Bridgewater Associates, a global investing force, had $168 billion under management at its peak in 2022, making it not just the world’s largest hedge fund, but also more than twice the size of the runner-up. Yet the hedge fund’s overall descriptions of its investment approach could be maddeningly vague. Mr. Dalio often said he relied on Bridgewater’s “investment engine,” a collection of hundreds of “signals,” or quantitative indicators that a market was due to rise or fall. (One rule reads, in part: “Not all opinions are equally valuable so don’t treat them as such.”)
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Bridgewater Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Bridgewater, White, Federal Reserve Locations: Manhattan, Bridgewater
The yen's key drivers are so weak the currency is comparable to the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, Deutsche Bank said. The country's balance of payments are also weak as the Bank of Japan has triggered capital flight. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Japanese yen's fundamentals are so weak the currency is comparable to some of the world's worst performing tenders, a Deutsche Bank note said on Wednesday. "A simple glance of the yen's drivers - yields and external accounts - puts the Japanese yen in the same league as the Turkish lira and Argentine peso," George Saravelos, the bank's global head of foreign exchange research, wrote in the report. Intervention by the Bank of Japan in currency markets won't help the yen, and may actually backfire.
Persons: , George Saravelos, Saravelos Organizations: Argentine, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Service, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
Inflows have dropped sharply in recent months to around $1 trillion in the face of the Fed's aggressive policy tightening underway since last year. Fed officials, for their part, have said repeatedly they’ve got a lot of room to cut their holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, a process that complements Fed rate increases. So far, reverse repos have “come down very smoothly,” Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed said earlier this month. In his view, if reverse repos stopped contracting that could become a meaningful sign liquidity levels were getting tight enough for the Fed to change gears. "We still have a very large balance sheet" so the balance sheet cuts can likely continue over the next year and half to two years, she said, adding when it comes to getting to the finish line, "it's going to take a while."
Persons: they’ve, ” Lorie Logan, Logan, “ I’ve, Wells Fargo, Roberto Perli, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Crandall reckons, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Dallas Fed, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Wells
Here’s what’s causing the market fears:High bond yieldsSurging yields have contributed to one of the worst periods for bond market performance in history and pressured equity markets. The company reported quarterly profits of $9.9 billion, also beating estimates. Shares of Meta slid last week after the Facebook parent company reported that advertising revenue had been soft this quarter. Jerominski told CNN that there have been at least 25 store closures. Fraser Engerman, a Walgreens spokesperson, told CNN that just two stores closed on Monday and no more than 12 pharmacists walked out across the entire country.
Persons: Dow, Rob Almeida, , Jason Pride, , don’t, Erik Weisman, Seema Shah, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Wall, Shane Jerominski, Jerominski, Fraser Engerman, Max —, Tim Cook, Apple Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Traders, Nasdaq, MFS Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, LPL Research, JPMorgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Reality Labs, Google, CVS, Walgreens, Staff, CNN, Workers, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Arizona , Washington , Massachusetts, Oregon, Southern California, Chicago, Deerfield, Apple’s Cupertino , California
Stock futures were slightly lower Tuesday evening as Wall Street geared up for the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on interest rates after closing out a terrible month. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were 50 points lower, or down 0.15%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each shed about 0.2%. The Dow and the S&P 500 ended the month lower by 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, marking the first three-month losing streak for both indexes since March 2020. Although November is a historically strong month for markets, investors are keeping an eye on a peak in bond yields.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Peter Boockvar, Stocks, Dow Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, China Holdings, Devices, Treasury Locations: Washington
Citadel, a hedge fund, and Citadel Securities, its sister market-making firm, were founded by billionaire Ken Griffin in 1990 and 2002. This work-hard, play-hard culture is evident in the firms' training of new employees, including its most junior ranks. They also had a Q&A with Peng Zhao, the CEO of Citadel Securities, who touched on how to prioritize time and find ways to be a leader, among other topics. The training program hasn't always been quite this involved. Fan lives in New York and will be based in Citadel Securities' Manhattan office.
Persons: onboarding, Ken Griffin, Griffin, Pete Becker, PATRICK T, FALLON, Peng Zhao, hasn't, It's Becker's, Becker, Joe DeNotta, Olivia Fan, Olivia, DeNotta, would've, It's, Pete, Andrew, We'll, We've, They're, Fan Organizations: Citadel Securities, Disney, Citadel, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Harvard, MIT Locations: Midtown, New York, Manhattan
Washington, DC CNN —The Fed’s fight against inflation is about to enter a new phase, but the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will continue to play a key role. The Fed also manages a multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet that accounts for trillions in government securities and lists how much currency is in circulation. For over a year now, the Fed has been steadily shrinking its balance sheet to help cool the economy. The Fed’s balance sheet is currently at around $7.9 trillion, down from its peak of $9 trillion in early 2022 right before the runoff. They also see alternative scenarios for the end of the balance sheet runoff if there isn’t a recession.
Persons: that’s, Lael Brainard, What’s, Wells, Jerome Powell, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon, Krystal Hur, Dimon —, Mr, Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, what’s, Estee Lauder, Kraft Heinz, Yum, Bausch, Eli Lilly, Molson Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Congress, Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, CNN, HSBC, McDonald’s, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Japan, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Marathon Petroleum, Sirius XM, Anheuser, Busch, BP, Chesapeake Energy, US Labor Department, Global, Board, CVS, GSK, Humana, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, Brands, Garmin, Cruise Line Holdings, Qualcomm, Airbnb, PayPal, MetLife, Aflac, AIG, Allstate, Prudential, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, Duke Energy, Shopify, Ferrari, Marriott International, Moderna, Fox, Molson Coors, Hyatt, Apple, Motorola, Bank of England, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Restaurant Brands Locations: Washington, Treasuries, China’s, Mondelez, DoorDash, Avis, Shell, Cigna
How can you not keep the federal funds rate higher for longer when you get a U.S. GDP number that surpasses the real GDP of China. He sees the three Oreos taken out of the bag and the higher price nonetheless. The average person hurt by higher rates is collateral damage to the greater anti-inflation mission. All the market has to do is reach a price level that is too darned compelling. And who says we won't see higher rates until the horizon is at last upon us?
Persons: aren't, Estee Lauder, Jerome Powell, Powell, it's, He's, calvary, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Treasury, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First, Bank, Federal Reserve, Disney, Fed, Costco, Homes, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: U.S, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia
A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Investors are playing close attention to this week's quarterly refunding announcement as a sharp jump in long-term Treasury yields has been partly attributed to concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit. So far this year, the Treasury has issued about $1.6 trillion of additional bills and roughly $1.04 trillion in longer-term debt. The Treasury is also likely to announce a buyback program for a possible launch in January, aimed at improving bond market liquidity, analysts said. The projected increase in longer-term deficits in the coming years, however, will keep Treasury raising auction sizes, analysts said.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Guneet Dhingra, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's Dhingra, Tom Simons, Zachary Griffiths, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Megan Davies, Jamie Freed Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, TD Securities, Treasury, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD The S & P 500 is also down 10% over the past two years and at a level first reached 30 months ago, with U.S. GDP now 18% larger than it was then and annualized earnings 10% higher. This places the S & P 500 at around 17 times forward earnings, roughly the past decade's average. The equal-weight S & P is near a 14 multiple and the equal-weight consumer discretionary sector is under 13, near the 2022 low P/E. Bank of America equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian points out that "Consensus long-term growth expectations for S & P 500 earnings have dropped to record lows, a rather powerful contrary indicator." Yes, market breadth is lousy, the equal-weight S & P 500 less than 5% above the October 2022 low, but this is also how markets look when they're getting "sold out."
Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, It's, Savita Subramanian, Stocks Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Bank of America Locations: Israel, Iraq
Some Wall Street banks have raised their forecasts for the amount of Treasurys to be auctioned. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are focused on the Treasury Department's upcoming quarterly refunding statement as Wall Street braces for another dose of sticker shock on US debt. After raising auction estimates in August, the department has already hinted that the Treasury supply will need to keep increasing. It's an outlook shared by Wall Street, and institutions are raising their expectations on the size of US debt issuance. AdvertisementAdvertisementJPMorgan also projected higher Treasury issuance ahead, noting that fiscal 2023's deficit surpassed its estimates by $100 billion.
Persons: , Josh Frost, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Treasury Department, Service, Treasury, Treasurys, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan
Policymakers meet eight times a year to decide on the bank's monetary policy position, updating its economic outlook at every other meeting. At these meetings, the BOJ policymakers decides on its monetary policy position, which then dictates how the central bank taps the money market. To absorb funds, the Japanese central bank issues and sells bills. Here's how the Bank of Japan conducts its monetary policy. "The objective of the Bank's monetary policy is achieving price stability, which is its mission as stipulated by law.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, it's, , Price, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Getty Images Bank of Japan, Investors, Bank of Japan, Bank of, of, Japan Society of Monetary Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are setting ourselves up for 'growth surprise' next year, says BofA Securities' SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why she has a year-end S&P price target of 4600, why she believes we will see a 'growth surprise' next year, and more.
Persons: Savita Subramanian Organizations: BofA, BofA Securities
Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsAnd that is reflected in the return of the "term premium," the amorphous amount of compensation investors demand for buying long-dated bonds instead of rolling over bills. A San Francisco Fed model estimates that the term premium on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen around 100 basis points since July. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsAnalysts at Morgan Stanley reckon the term premium and debt sustainability worries could prompt a rethink of the bill-coupon supply balance. Bill supply around these levels would be well down on net issuance of just over $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2023. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIn an ideal world, Treasury would not choose to rely on such short-term funding needs.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Morgan Stanley, Bill, Committee's, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Treasury, San, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Bank of America, TD Securities, Bills, Reuters, Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, San Francisco
HON YTD mountain Honeywell YTD Unfortunately, Honeywell hit a 52-week low in Thursday's terrible market. Moreover, guidance for the remainder of the year was mixed: Sales are expected to be better than we thought. Honeywell repurchased 5.3 million shares during the quarter, more than double the amount purchased in the second quarter. Additionally, for both the full year and the current quarter, earnings performance is being suppressed by pension liabilities. Qualitatively, continued volatility is expected but management believes they can deliver further growth, margin expansion, and cash growth "in line or above EPS growth."
Persons: We're, it's, we'll, Vimal, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Honeywell, Revenue, LSEG, Management, Commercial Aviation, Defense, Aero, mangement's, Aerospace Technologies, Industrial Automation, CNBC, Honeywell International Inc, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: New York
Operating income increased over 340% to $11.12 billion, significantly exceeding forecasts of $7.7 billion, according to FactSet, and above the high-end of management's guidance. As a result, the operating income estimate is a more telling metric on how Amazon fared relative to Wall Street's expectations — and make no mistake, it was strong. In the Companywide part of the table, the cost of sales line-item came in above expectations at $75 billion. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Andy Jassy, Jassy, that's, it's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Omar Marques Organizations: Amazon, Services, Revenue, LSEG, Rivian Automotive, Management, North, CNBC, Lightrocket, Getty
Anita A. Summers, an economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who injected quantitative rigor into a wide variety of public policy topics, including zoning, education and tax incentives, died on Sunday at her home in Gladwyne, Pa. She was 98. Her son Lawrence H. Summers, the economist and former secretary of the Treasury, confirmed the death. Though she spent much of her career in academia, Mrs. Summers was far from a hidebound intellectual. She was the founding chairwoman of Wharton’s public policy and management department, the first of its kind at a business school. (It is now called the department of business economics and public policy.)
Persons: Anita, Summers, Lawrence H Organizations: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Treasury, Wharton, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Locations: Gladwyne, Pa
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