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The latest macro data is sending mixed signals, reflecting both a "no landing" and a "soft landing," Morgan Stanley said. The bank recommends defensive sectors, including consumer staples, to navigate volatility. AdvertisementInvestors should ramp up investments in defensive stock sectors like consumer staples and utilities as the latest data sends mixed signals about the economy, Morgan Stanley says. Based on this rationale, Wilson suggests opting for robust cyclical names in a no-landing scenario and premium growth stocks in a soft landing. It also provides some more defensiveness to portfolios as a hedge amid uncertain/unpredictable macro data," they said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Michael Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm, Staples, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Conference, Reserve Locations: today's
LONDON — European markets are set to advance Monday as traders continue to assess the possibility of rate cuts after softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The French CAC 40 was set to open 50 points higher at 8,239 points, German DAX was expected to jump 60 points to 18,050. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed 175,000 jobs were added in April, below the 240,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% from 3.8% in the prior month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wage figures also came in lower than expected, an encouraging sign for inflation.
Persons: DAX, nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: CAC, Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Treasury yields were lower Monday, continuing a fall after Friday's April jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls growth and an unexpected tick higher in unemployment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was off 2 basis points to 4.4975%. The 2-year Treasury yield was slightly lower to 4.8056%. U.S. payrolls rose by just 175,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, short of the Dow Jones estimate from economists of 240,000. Wage growth was also less than expected, the report showed.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, of Labor Statistics
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 66 points, or around 0.2%. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 1.4% each, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. But the April jobs report helps clear a path to that destination," said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams. While the peak of the first-quarter earnings season has passed, investors are still watching key companies set to report this week, including Dow member Disney on Tuesday and Uber on Wednesday. On the economic front, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and New York Fed president John Williams are both scheduled to speak on Monday.
Persons: Dow, Bill Adams, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Uber, Emmanuel Cau, Tom Barkin, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Comerica Bank, Apple, Disney, Barclays, Richmond Fed, New York Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . U.S
With the Fed, Apple earnings and the jobs report passing with flying colors this week, the runway to more gains looks a lot less cluttered. This past week was chock full of Club earnings: 12 portfolio companies, including Apple , delivered results. Analysts expect Wynn's earnings per share of $1.27 versus 29 cents a year ago when China was not fully back from Covid. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jerome Powell, we're, Jim Cramer, Jim, Apple, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Stanley Black, Decker, Bausch, FactSet, It's, Bob Iger, Iger, Nelson Peltz, We're, Krystal, Berkshire Hathaway, Tyson, Jones Lang, Walt, Ferrari N.V, WK Kellogg, Wynn, Vishay, CRON, MARA, RICK, Ginkgo, Jim Cramer's, David Paul Morris Organizations: Federal Reserve, Apple, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Linde, Bausch Health, Coterra Energy, Club, Disney, Wynn Resorts, CNBC, Revenue, Vegas Sands, Cotai, Boston, Airlines, Krystal Biotech, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Axsome Therapeutics, Tyson Foods, TSN, Bowlero Corp, CNA Financial Corp, CNA, Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated, Technologies, Realty Income Corp, Lab, Teradata Corp, Technology, FMC Corporation, FMC, Paymentus Holdings, Shockwave, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Simon Property Group, Sterling Construction Company, Apple Hospitality, Boise Cascade Corporation, BellRing Brands, Coty, COTY, Fidelity National Information Services Inc, Vornado Realty, Walt Disney Co, Holdings, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Nikola Corporation, BP, Rockwell Automation, MarketAxess Holdings, Jumia Technologies, GEO Group, Builders FirstSource Inc, Duke Energy Corp, WYNN, Rivian Automotive, Arista Networks, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Astera Labs, Bros, Flywire Corporation, B2Gold Corp, Kinross Gold Corp, Virgin Galactic Holdings, iRobot Corp, Electronic Arts Inc, McKesson Corp, ACM Research, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, Toyota Motor Corp, Emerson Electric Co, Perion, Editas, Brink's Company, Sinclair Corporation, New Fortress Energy, Starwood Property Trust, Animal Health, ELAN, Farms, IM Cannabis Corp, Fox Corporation, Formula One, Icahn Enterprises, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Arm Holdings plc, ARM, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Trade, AppLovin Corporation, Sciences Corp, SolarEdge Technologies, Roblox Corporation, GigaCloud Technology Inc, Warner Bros ., Properties Trust, Growers, Constellation Energy Group, Cronos, Fiverr, Solar Inc, EPAM Systems, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Digital Holdings, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Akamai Technologies, Semiconductor, Insulet Corp, NuScale Power Corporation, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Bloom Energy Corporation, Construction, AMC Networks, CRH Public Ltd . Company, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Allen, Co . Media, Technology Conference, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, Eaton, Amazon, Covid, Macao, Vegas, Sun Valley , Idaho
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
Analysts say fast-food prices feel particularly painful because they're rising faster than grocery prices. Fast-food prices have been shooting upRestaurant prices are determined by "two major categories" — food costs and labor costs, Citi analyst Jon Tower told BI. Related storiesFast-food chains put up their menu prices to reflect the higher food costs and payrolls. AdvertisementGrocery inflation is coolingFast food seems particularly expensive right now because grocery inflation is cooling much more rapidly, analysts BI spoke to said. AdvertisementBut the inverse is also true — grocery stores benefit much more than restaurants when food inflation cools.
Persons: , Jim Sanderson, Jon Tower, Sharon Zackfia, William Blair, Price, Danilo Gargiulo, Bernstein, Gargiulo, they've, Garguilo, Sara Senatore, Chad Frye Organizations: Analysts, Service, Northcoast Research, Citi, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America Locations: Russia, Ukraine, California
Gold set for second weekly fall; U.S. payrolls on investors' radar
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices were poised for a second straight weekly decline, although bullion held steady on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could provide cues on the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline. Spot gold held its ground at $2,306.84 per ounce by 0457 GMT but lost more than 1% this week. Softer U.S. payrolls print could provide support for gold but a better report may weigh on prices, Wong added. The non-farm payrolls report is due at 1230 GMT.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Wong, Wang Tao, Fawad Organizations: Co, U.S ., Fed, City Index Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Egypt, Israel
The US unemployment rate remained low in April, but it ticked up. AdvertisementIn the US, the unemployment rate increased from March to April. Plus, job growth in April slowed down a lot, a new labor market report on Friday showed. This job growth for the US was way below the forecast of 238,000 and the first time the initial print has come in below expectations since last October. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Nonfarm, Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Treasury yields inch higher ahead of April jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than one basis point to 4.5814%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last over one basis point higher to 4.8891%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday as investors awaited key labor market data that could provide hints about the state of the economy. Investors looked ahead to the April jobs report, which investors will be scanning for clues about whether the labor market is easing or remaining resilient.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Jim Cramer suggested some of Apple's AI commentary Thursday night could be a factor in the Google parent's stock move. We continue to believe the market is underappreciating Coterra's ability to pullback production in natural gas in favor of oil. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, That's, Jim, Tom Jorden, Jorden, Nelson Peltz, Peltz, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Conference, Nasdaq, Google, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply, Coterra Energy, Diamondback Energy, Cinco, Cinco de Mayo, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Disney, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Cinco de
Signage at a job fair at Brunswick Community College in Bolivia, North Carolina, US, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, reversing a trend of robust job growth that had kept the Federal Reserve cautious as it looks for signals on when it can start cutting interest rates. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation. The jobless rate tied for the highest level since January 2022.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Brunswick Community College, Reserve, Dow Locations: Bolivia , North Carolina, U.S
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
Elsewhere, the dollar lost ground against most of its peers and was headed for its worst week in nearly two months, in part due to the sharp rise in the yen this week. The euro ticked up 0.05% to last trade at $1.0730, and was eyeing a weekly gain of 0.35%. "Recent Fed speech has acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation and the desire to maintain the current level of policy rates for longer. Down Under, the Australian dollar edged 0.07% higher to $0.6570, and was on track to gain nearly 0.6% for the week. The New Zealand dollar tacked on a marginal 0.03% to $0.5963, and was eyeing a 0.4% weekly gain.
Persons: Tokyo's, Vishnu Varathan, Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Tai Hui Organizations: Traders, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank, Federal, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand Locations: Asia, tenterhooks, Tokyo, Japan
A gong inside the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. China Vanke's subsidiary Onewo and EV maker Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology began trading on the Hong Kong market on Thursday. Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday, tracking Wall Street gains ahead of key U.S. employment data. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect to see 240,000 job gains in the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report due Friday at 0830a.m. Stock markets in Japan and mainland China were shut for public holidays.
Persons: Dow Jones, nonfarm Organizations: Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China Vanke's, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology, Apple, Investors, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, U.S Locations: China, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, U.S, 0830a.m, Taiwan, South Korea, South, Japan
Gold prices flutter higher as Fed holds rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected. Its latest policy statement kept key elements of its economic assessment and policy guidance intact, framing its discussion of interest rates around the conditions under which borrowing costs can be lowered. Traders were relieved that Powell slammed the door shut for further hikes, helping gold prices climb back above $2,300, City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Traders, City Index, U.S, Palladium, MKS PAMP
Here's what to expect from the April jobs report on Friday
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesHiring likely continued at a brisk pace in April as investors look for any cracks in the labor market that could sway the Federal Reserve. If that top-line number is accurate, it actually would reflect a small step back from the average 276,000 jobs a month created so far in 2024. April's jobs market featured more strength in health care and leisure and hospitality, Glaser added. Beating expectationsIndeed, the labor market has been full of surprises this year, topping Wall Street estimates at a time when many economists expected hiring to have slowed down. "The Goldilocks scenario is an unemployment rate rise with a participation rate rise," Matus said.
Persons: Allison Joyce, Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Amy Glaser, resiliency, Glaser, we've, Drew Matus, Matus, Jerome Powell Organizations: Brunswick Community College, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, MetLife Investment Management, of Labor Locations: Bolivia , North Carolina
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 212 points, or 0.55%. S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced about 0.5%. In extended trading, Apple advanced more than 6% after it announced a $110 billion share repurchase and a top -and bottom-line beat. The S&P 500 popped 0.91%, while the Dow gained 0.85%. The S&P 500 is off by 0.7% week to date, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.6%.
Persons: Cloudflare, Dow, Jerome Powell, Sonu Varghese, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Biotech Amgen, Dow, Carson Group Locations: New York City, U.S
Stocks closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple earnings and the April jobs report. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said the stock market has more room to run even without a rate cut. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS indexes closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple's earnings and a key labor report set to be published Friday morning. Bank of America's US equity head, Savita Subramanian, has said the stock market has more room to run even without looser monetary policy.
Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, , Dow Jones, Veronica Clark, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Bank, America's, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow, Citi, Bank of, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: China
Private payrolls increased at a faster than expected pace in April, indicating there are still plenty of tailwinds for the U.S. labor market, according to ADP. Companies with 500 or more workers showed the biggest gain in hiring with 98,000. In recent months, ADP has consistently undershot the Labor Department's count, though the numbers were fairly close in March. The department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private payrolls increased by 232,000 for the month versus ADP's 208,000. Friday's report is expected to show growth of 204,000 in total nonfarm payrolls for April, down from March's 303,000, according to the consensus Dow Jones estimate.
Persons: payrolls, Dow Jones, Nela Richardson Organizations: ADP, Labor, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: March's
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point higher to 4.6862%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 5.0373% after dipping by around one basis point, holding above the 5% mark it crossed Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and monetary policy guidance. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, and investors are hoping that officials will provide fresh signals about the potential path ahead for interest rates. Uncertainty has grown in recent weeks about the possibility, number and timing of interest rate cuts this year.
Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal, Fed, Traders Locations: .
Gold prices ease as dollar firms ahead of Fed policy meet
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An Argor-Heraeus SA branded two hundred and fifty gram gold bar, center, sits in this arranged photograph at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. Gold prices were set for a third straight monthly gain, even as bullion prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting starting later in the day. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,329.69 per ounce, as of 0355 GMT. This week's important market events are the Federal Reserve's policy meeting from April 30-May 1 and the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. The U.S. Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-5.5% at this meeting.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Capital.com, Bullion, Capital.com's Rodda, Jerome Powell Organizations: Heraeus SA, Solar, Federal, U.S, Fed Locations: Budapest, Hungary
Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by around two basis points to 4.6343%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9809% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Tuesday as investors looked to economic data for hints about the state of the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. Investors awaited economic data and looked to the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is due to begin Tuesday and conclude Wednesday with a fresh interest rate decision and press conference. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, came in slightly above expectations for March.
Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Headline
Even the human-resources firm retained to help employees with offboarding, Tandem, quit soon after the layoffs because it never got paid. Shannon Flynn Bevers, Tandem's president and founder, said that she tried to help employees but that Johnson stopped responding. "When startups go out of business, they will pay employees their final paycheck. Johnson told employees to take a weeklong furlough and blamed the issue on a technical snafu. She also told employees they could file a claim with their state labor department or hire an employment lawyer.
Persons: Slack, Shiloh Johnson, Johnson, they'd, Benjamin Matthews, Shannon Flynn Bevers, I've, Flynn Bevers, VCs, Josh Felser, Aerin Paulo, ComplYant's, I'd, ComplYant, podcaster David Sacks, Michael Tam, Tam, Matthews, Ryan Cady, Lusely Martinez, Martinez, Cady, paychecks, wasn't, Taliah McGuire, McGuire, what's, Shiloh Luckey, Penelope, We've Organizations: Business, offboarding, . Venture, BI, Craft Ventures, ComplYant, Mucker, Slauson, — Mucker, Fika Ventures, Employees Locations: Los Angeles, Shiloh, San Francisco, Colorado, New York, TikTok
Treasury yields fall as investors look to Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than one basis point lower to 4.9830%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and economic data scheduled for this week. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is set to begin Tuesday and conclude with an interest rate decision and press conference about policymakers' discussions on Wednesday. While markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, investors will be closely watching out for policy guidance from the central bank. This comes as recent economy data has suggested resilience from the economy and persistent inflationary pressures.
Persons: Dow Jones, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors
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