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The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by 6 basis points at 4.63%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury had risen 1 basis point to 4.21%. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked higher Thursday as investors considered the path ahead for interest rates following comments from a Federal Reserve official and prepared for key inflation data. Investors weighed the outlook for monetary policy and looked ahead to key economic data as uncertainty around when and how often interest rates will be cut this year persists. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said there was "no rush" to cut interest rates, adding that recent economic data indicated that rates may need to stay elevated for longer.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, Federal, PCE
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. "This was a quarter about earnings and these companies are earning a lot of money," Jim Cramer said. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Dupont De Nemours, Estee Lauder, Lauder's, we've, Jim, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nvidia, Meta, Dupont De, Bank of America, Management Locations: Wells Fargo, Dupont, U.S
Looking at the recent performance of the market and several stocks in our portfolio, one thing is clear: This is a market that wants to go higher. We would much rather see stocks up on strong earnings instead of rising on lower rates that are only lower because the operating environment is deteriorating. But it's important to understand, at a high level, what kind of market we are still in — a bull market seeking new heights. We are fielding a lot of questions about how one should approach a market near all-time highs. Now, that doesn't mean stocks are on a one-way march higher and a pullback is impossible.
Persons: Jerome Powell, we've, We're, We'll, it's, , Morgan Stanley, Coterra, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Erik McGregor Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Linde, DuPont, Coterra Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Financial, LightRocket, Getty Locations: , U.S, Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, New
Dollar dips, yen draws support from Tokyo's jawboning
  + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday, owing to profit taking and pressured in part by a slightly stronger yen as Japanese government officials continued with their jawboning to defend the currency. The dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday, owing to profit taking and pressured in part by a slightly stronger yen as Japanese government officials continued with their jawboning to defend the currency. "But it's even tougher for the (dollar) to weaken when other central banks were sounding more dovish than a dovish Fed." The dollar index was last 0.02% lower at 104.20, while the euro rose 0.03% to $1.0840. "While they say that the fundamentals don't justify the price, the market's telling them something else," said IG's Sycamore.
Persons: he's, Tony Sycamore, Thierry Wizman, Shunichi Suzuki Organizations: New Zealand, Federal, IG, FX, Macquarie, Fed, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan's Locations: U.S, Japan, United States, Sycamore
Gold holds tight range as focus turns to U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were stuck in a tight range on Tuesday as investor focus turns to U.S. inflation data due later this week, which could shed more light on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year. Gold prices hit a record high last week after Fed policymakers indicated they still expected to reduce interest by three-quarters of a percentage point by 2024 end despite recent high inflation readings. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook cautioned the U.S. central bank needs to proceed carefully as it decides when to begin cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Capital.com, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook Organizations: Aurum, Federal, Chicago Fed Bank, Traders, Fed Locations: U.S
Gold rises on hopes for Fed rate cut in June, softer dollar
  + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices rose on Monday as renewed bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in June and a softer dollar lifted bullion's appeal. The dollar was down 0.1% against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Looks like June is being the most probable time when they are sort of expected to pull the trigger on that first rate cut." Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Persons: Tim Waterer Organizations: Co, U.S . Federal Reserve, KCM, Traders, Fed Locations: Bangkok, Thailand
In that case, the Fed may have to push cuts out until the end of the year, confounding market expectations. If so, then the nonpolitical monetary policy committee might postpone considering rate cuts until after the November presidential elections," Yardeni wrote last week. "That could be the first rate cut decision of this year," Yardeni said. "We maintain our expectation of just two rate cuts this year , in July and December," economists at Nomura said in a client note. Clarida also noted that if the Fed judged inflation by the consumer price index instead of its preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, "we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts."
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nomura, Richard Clarida, Clarida Organizations: Yardeni Research, Fed, Market, CNBC
That answered a big question going into the central bank's two-day March meeting following two months of hotter inflation readings. We hope to see that strength continue in the coming months as increasing supply would help keep housing inflation down. Following the company's last quarterly report, Jim Cramer said, "You cannot have a recession if Cintas is blowing the doors open." ET: PCE price index (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, JEF, HB Fuller, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Victor J Organizations: Dow, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, McCormick & Company, GameStop, Jefferies, Gross, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S
Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank's former vice chair said Friday. "If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts," Clarida said. A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022. "What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate," Clarida said. "Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting.
Persons: Richard Clarida, Jerome Powell, Clarida, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Commerce Locations: Atlanta
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just 3 times in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank lowered its forecast for 4 interest rate cuts after elevated inflation data. AdvertisementHigher-than-expected inflation readings over the past two months have led Goldman Sachs to revise its 2024 interest rate forecasts. The bank now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver just three 25-basis point interest rate cuts this year, down from its prior projection of four rate cuts. Three interest rate cuts in 2024 is about half of what the market originally expected at the beginning of the year.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle Organizations: Federal, Reserve
Opinion: Trump gives Biden one big lift
  + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Richard Galant | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +18 min
Former President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings are only slightly better. The bipartisan legislation to control the flow of migrants across the southern border was blown up by opposition from Trump. One thing that is going right for Biden is Trump himself. “I want to vote for Donald Trump in November, wrote Marc A. Thiessen in the Washington Post. … Just like office holders have released their tax returns (up until former President Donald Trump), I would like to see more candidates release their physical and mental health assessments,” Schurman observed.
Persons: Oscar, ” Ramy Youssef, hungers, Max McCandles, Godwin Baxter, , Frankenstein, Willem Dafoe, McCandles, Baxter, who’s, , Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump’s, Biden, Clay Jones, Trump, Ruth Ben, Ghiat, “ Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Viktor Orban, Adolf Hitler, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong, Saddam Hussein, , — Donald Trump, , ” Ben, Donald Trump, Marc A, Thiessen, Will, that’s, Dana M, Peterson, Erik Lundh, Will RFK, Mary ’, Aaron Rodgers, Julian Zelizer, Kamala Harris, Andrey Spektor, Hunter Biden, Andrea Hailey, We’re, Frederick D, Dennis Aftergut, Bill Bramhall, Hilary Krieger, Gary Schmidt, ” Bradley Schurman, , Schurman, Robert Hur, Jack Ohman, Patrick T, Brown, Hur, Republicans “, Biden’s, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Willis, Fani Willis, Willis ’, Nathan Wade, Wade, Norman Eisen, Danya Perry, Joshua Kolb, Scott McAfee, Wade’s, ” “, ’ Biden, ” Jose Antonio Vargas, “ It’s, ” Dana Summers, Garry Pierre, Pierre, Ariel Henry, Henry, America sneezes, Frida Ghitis, TikTok, ” Ghitis, Catherine, Princess, Kate, George, Princess Charlotte, Prince Louis, ” Rosa Prince, Louis ’, William, , ” Prince, Ekaterina Kotrikadze, Jonathan I, Fareed Zakaria, Carrie Sheffield, Noah Berlatsky, Kristen Stewart’s, queerness, Doug Heye, MAGA Trump, Dean Obeidallah, Katie Britt’s, Amy Hanauer, Naomi Walker, Robert Downey Jr, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Emma Stone, Cillian Murphy, Arturo Holmes, Jeff Yang, Jack Palance, Warren Beatty, Faye Dunaway, they’d, ” Yang, Cord Jefferson, Lily Gladstone, “ Gladstone, she’s, Leonardo, DiCaprio, Robert DeNiro, Emma Stone’s, Bella, ” Stone Organizations: CNN, Trump, Hamas, GOP, Washington Post, Mar, Hungarian, , Conference Board, Will RFK Jr, White House, American Enterprise Institute, Biden, Union, Republicans, Twitter, Pew Research Center, Content Agency Haiti, Haitian Times, Haitian, America, Kensington Palace, AP, Reuters, Agency, North, Hollywood Locations: Gaza, Israel, Ohio, Washington, Ukraine, Afghanistan, America, Georgia, Fulton County, Fulton, he’s, Florida, Texas, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Maryland, China, Wales, Kensington, North America, La, American
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
Housing, housing and more housingThe housing sector carries more than four times as much weight in CPI compared to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. But, with PCE, housing has a much more limited impact on the inflation index. Both indexes are faulted for using this metric to calculate housing inflationBoth indexes use a widely criticized metric called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) to track housing inflation. But it can often take months for these trends to show up in either the PCE or CPI housing indexes. Another issue with using OER to track housing inflation is that it doesn’t really affect homeowners.
Persons: Joe Biden, Frederic J . Brown, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Cleveland Federal Reserve, PCE, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: New York, November’s, AFP
Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.
Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China
Gold just jumped to a record high. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —Gold rose Tuesday after notching a record high the prior day, as investors continue to bet the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the back half of the year. The yellow metal was up about 0.4% on Tuesday morning, stabilizing somewhat after settling at an all-time high of $2,126.30 a troy ounce on Monday. However, some investors also believe gold to be a hedge against inflation, wagering that it will hold its value even if it begins to surge. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.4% for the 12 months ended in January. The milestones for both bitcoin and gold come as stocks continue to rally powerfully.
Persons: That’s, Jerome Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Investors, Fed, Nasdaq Locations: New York, December’s
Corporate greed drove inflation higher in January, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementCorporate greed is the reason why inflation was hotter than expected to start the year, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Speaking to CNBC on Friday, Lee pointed to the slight uptick in January consumer inflation, with prices rising 3.1% year-over-year. That suggests the hotter-than-expected inflation reading to start 2024 was likely due to corporate "greedflation," or simply, businesses hiking prices because they're able to. Advertisement"The arching reality is that inflation is falling ... A lot of companies raise prices in the month of January and it doesn't get captured," Lee said.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , doesn't Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was over two basis points higher to 4.2091%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by more than three basis points to 4.5643%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors considered the state of the economy and looked ahead to key economic data slated for this week. Investors weighed the path ahead for the economy, including inflation — after recent data painted a somewhat mixed picture — and awaited fresh insights from the economy expected this week. Fresh insights will come this week in the form of labor market data, including JOLTs job openings figures, private payrolls data from ADP and the February jobs report.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve
Uncertainty around when the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates has kept mortgage rates elevated in recent weeks. This week, average 30-year mortgage rates ticked up four basis points to 6.94%, according to Freddie Mac. Once inflation gets closer to the Fed's 2% target rate and the central bank starts lowering its benchmark rate, mortgage rates should go down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, we'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, homebuying, Commerce Department, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
Oil prices rise as Gaza deaths complicate ceasefire talks
  + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices rose on Friday and were set to end the week modestly higher as talks over a potential ceasefire in Gaza were further complicated by the deaths of more than 100 Palestinians waiting for an aid delivery. Oil prices rose on Friday and were set to end the week modestly higher as talks over a potential ceasefire in Gaza were further complicated by the deaths of more than 100 Palestinians waiting for an aid delivery. President Joe Biden said the U.S. was checking reports of Israeli troops firing on people waiting for food aid in Gaza, saying he believed the deadly incident would complicate talks of a ceasefire. Israel has blamed the deaths on crowds surrounding the aid trucks, saying victims were trampled or run over. On the supply side, a Reuters survey showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up 90,000 bpd from January.
Persons: Brent, Joe Biden Organizations: U.S, West Texas, U.S . Federal, of, Petroleum, Reuters Locations: Gaza, WTI, Red, U.S, Israel, Qatar, Beijing, U.S ., Libyan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Housing inflation is what we have to watchAustan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Goolsbee's thoughts on the latest Core PCE data, why housing inflation is the sector the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention to, and if January's data has changed the monetary policy outlook.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Austan Organizations: Chicago, Chicago Fed, Federal Reserve
Gold hovers near one-month peak on slowing U.S. inflation
  + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices hovered near a month high on Friday after data suggested easing U.S. price pressures, while traders awaited remarks from several Federal Reserve officials. Gold prices hovered near a month high on Friday after data suggested easing U.S. price pressures, while traders awaited remarks from several Federal Reserve officials. Gold traders rejoiced the fact that core-PCE slowed annually," City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said. Money market pricing shows traders are pricing in three quarter-point U.S. rate cuts for 2024. "Whilst negative ETF flows are capping gold prices, China's central bank is a key reason that gold prices remain supported, as they were the second highest purchaser of gold reserves in the fourth quarter," Simpson said.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Simpson Organizations: Federal Reserve, PCE, Index, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Fed Governor Randy Kroszner: Don't expect a June rate cut to be 'baked in the cake'Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business professor of economics and former Federal Reserve Governor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the January personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, the impact on the Fed's rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Randy Kroszner Organizations: Former, University, Chicago’s Booth School, Business, Federal Reserve
Dollar waits on U.S. inflation reading, bitcoin tops $60,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar was firm and the yen was headed for a monthly loss in the lead up to U.S. inflation data that could ruffle the interest rate outlook, while bitcoin surged above $60,000. The U.S. dollar was firm and the yen was headed for a monthly loss in the lead up to U.S. inflation data that could ruffle the interest rate outlook, while bitcoin surged above $60,000. Bitcoin is on a tear and topped $63,000 overnight as it rides a wave of cash rushing to new U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds. It is up more than 45% this month, its largest gain since December 2020 and a record high above $69,000 is within sight. The New Zealand dollar nursed losses on bets that rate hikes there are finished.
Persons: bitcoin, Masato Kanda, Sue Ann Lee, Kristina Clifton, Sterling Organizations: U.S, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Japan, U.S, Asia, Sao Paulo, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Europe
Inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to an important gauge the Federal Reserve uses as it deliberates cutting interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate. The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. January's price increases reflected an ongoing shift to services over goods as the economy normalizes from the Covid pandemic disruptions. Thursday's BEA report also showed that consumers are continuing to dip into savings as prices stay elevated.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, PCE, Commerce Department's, Treasury, BEA, Labor Department, Dow
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by over one basis point to 4.2915%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was more than one basis point higher to 4.6643%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Thursday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Investors looked ahead to the release of the personal consumption expenditures report for January, which could provide clues about the outlook for interest rates. If January's reading comes in higher than expected, markets may take it as a signal that inflation is stickier than previously expected and interest rates could stay elevated for longer.
Persons: Dow Jones, John Williams Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, PCE, New York Federal
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