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☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ Gold edges higher as dollar dips ahead of U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,856.11 per ounce, as of 0302 GMT, after hitting a near seven-month high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures also edged 0.1% higher at $1,861.20. "Gold has had a good start to the year, helped by a weaker dollar and expectations that the Fed might slow its pace of rate hikes. "If the jobs data reflects that the rate hikes have taken a toll on the economy, then dollar might weaken further and benefit gold." Bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding gold.

☆ Fed's Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As her 40-year central banking career comes to a close, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George is advising her colleagues to stay tough in their efforts to stamp out runaway inflation. George said Thursday that she thinks the Fed should raise its benchmark borrowing rate above 5% and keep it there until there are substantial signs that prices are stabilizing. At the December Fed meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the fed funds rate half a percentage point to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Asked whether her view is that the funds rate should hold above 5% into 2024, George replied, "It is for me." George is leaving the Fed this month as she hit the mandatory retirement age of 65.

☆ Hawkish Fed rhetoric fails to lift dollar; Aussie jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, that failed to give a boost to the U.S. currency, which slid 1.4% against the Canadian dollar overnight. Sterling was last steady at $1.2062, after rising 0.76% against the dollar in the previous session, while the euro edged 0.19% higher to $1.0624, following a more than 0.5% overnight gain. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 104.06, after slipping 0.5% on Wednesday. The Aussie was last steady at $0.6835, while the kiwi rose 0.11% to $0.6298, after gaining 0.7% in the previous session. "The Aussie dollar has obviously benefitted from the coal story," said NAB's Attrill, adding that most other commodity currencies were supported.

☆ Fed’s Kashkari Sees Rates Rising to 5.4%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expects the central bank will need to keep raising interest rates over the next few months despite signs that inflation is decelerating. “While I believe it is too soon to definitively declare that inflation has peaked, we are seeing increasing evidence that it may have,” said Mr. Kashkari in an essay published online Wednesday morning. “In my view, however, it will be appropriate to continue to raise rates at least at the next few meetings until we are confident inflation has peaked.”

☆ Fed officials see higher rates for 'some time' ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made, according to minutes released Wednesday from the central bank's December meeting. The minutes reflected those sentiments, noting that no FOMC members expect rate cuts in 2023, despite market pricing. Markets currently are pricing in the likelihood of rate increases totaling 0.5-0.75 percentage point before pausing to evaluate the impact the hikes are having on the economy. Fed officials, however, have expressed doubt repeatedly about any loosening of policy in 2023. While some of the recent inflation metrics have shown progress, the labor market, a critical target of the rate increases, has been resilient.

☆ Kashkari sees Fed's target interest rate peaking at 5.4%
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Its main policy rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. "To be clear, in this phase any sign of slow progress that keeps inflation elevated for longer will warrant, in my view, taking the policy rate potentially much higher," Kashkari said. Of course, much depends on how incoming data, in particular on inflation and labor market strength, reinforce that view. Despite a waning of price pressures late last year, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is still rising at a 5.5% annual rate, more than twice the U.S. central bank's 2% target. For his part, Kashkari reiterated the Fed must avoid cutting rates prematurely.

☆ We just got confirmation that interest rates on mortgages, cars, and credit cards will keep getting more expensive in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve's December minutes confirmed interest rates won't be cut in 2023. It noted that as long as inflation is well above 2%, continued interest rate hikes will be necessary. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) December meeting, when it announced it would be raising interest rates by 50 basis points. "No participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023," the minutes said. This means that while the Fed might lower the pace at which it raises interest rates throughout the year, taking on loans to buy a house, car, or mortgage will keep getting more expensive.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.

☆ Morning Bid: Tough Fed talk
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in markets from Anshuman DagaWhile Fed speakers talk tough on interest rates and keep market expectations in check, Britain's bleak outlook will also weigh on UK assets. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that even under a "generous" analysis of monetary policy, the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates given that its tightening so far "had only limited effects on observed inflation." For now, it does look like recent market enthusiasm about a short period of rising rates on signs of slower inflation was misplaced. This came a day after the country's budget forecasters warned Britain faced a record hit to living standards this year, battered by surging inflation. On the corporate front, Francesco De Ferrari, who heads Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) wealth management business, told Reuters he is targeting growth markets, high net worth clients and technology to fuel the fortunes of the embattled Swiss bank.

☆ Treasury yields climb as markets ponder future Fed interest rate policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.5095% after rising by more than five basis points. U.S Treasury yields rose on Friday as Federal Reserve officials suggested interest rates would go higher still, after recent economic data had given investors hope about inflation easing. Uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate plans continued to weigh on markets. Throughout the week, a series of Fed speakers indicated that the central bank would continue on its path of interest rate hikes. Investors had hoped that recent wholesale and consumer inflation figures, which came in less hot than expected, would prompt the Fed to slow or pause rate hikes.

☆ Shares and pound splutter as UK dishes out budget gruel
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/3] Pound and Dollar banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. Pound and UK Gilt recover from 'mini budget' turmoilOvernight in Asia, grim signals from Micron Technology about excess inventories and sluggish demand sent chipmaker stocks sprawling. Mainland Chinese shares also wobbled, with blue chips there (.CSI300) falling 0.5% having ripped 10% higher this month. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. Crude oil steadied in Europe after settling more than a dollar lower overnight, following the resumption of Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and as rising COVID-19 cases in China weighed on sentiment.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationSINGAPORE, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed on Thursday as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data, while the British pound rose ahead of the government's budget update. Yet the dollar paused on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for October, released on Wednesday, came in stronger than expected. "Markets have positioned for the Fed to pivot (but) the U.S. retail sales data very much challenges that narrative," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Kim Mundy. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from numerous Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. China's yuan weakened 0.36% to 7.126 per dollar as new COVID cases caused concerns that officials could order more lockdowns.

☆ Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.

☆ Fed's Kashkari: not stopping rate hikes until inflation peaks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 17 (Reuters) - It's hard to know how high the U.S. central bank will need to raise interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday, but it should not stop until it's clear that inflation has peaked. "I need to be convinced that inflation has at least stopped climbing, that we're not falling further behind the curve, before I would advocate stopping the progression of future rate hikes," he told the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce in an event webcast by the regional Fed bank. The Fed has raised rates aggressively this year, and Kashkari reminded his audience Thursday that the full effects of those rate hikes could take a year before they are felt economy-wide. "It's an open question of how far we are going to have to go with interest rates to bring that demand down in the balance," he said. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Mark Porter and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Morning Bid: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report. The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.

☆ Fed's Kashkari: talk of pivot 'premature,' on good policy path
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed last week raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, battling inflation that's higher than it has been in 40 years. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that future rate hikes could come in smaller increments as central bankers take into account policy lags. But he also signaled that, ultimately, to bring down inflation the policy rate would likely need to go higher than the 4.6% that policymakers forecast just a couple months ago. The economy was a "long, long, long way" from the point where the Fed's two goals would be in conflict, forcing a pivot on policy, he said. Currently inflation is running at more that three times the Fed's inflation goal, and unemployment, at 3.7%, is below the 4% that most policymakers believe is consistent with a fully employed workforce in the long run.

Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 263,000, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5%. "And I think the implication of that is probably a slower rate of pace of rate increases, a longer pace of rate increases and potentially a higher end point." The Fed's key policy rate currently sits in a 3.75%-4.00% range. "I had interest rates in September peaking at around 4.9% in the March-April (2023) kind of time frame," Kashkari said. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael S. Derby, Dan Burns and Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed set to deliver another big rate hike, debate December downshift
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Defining that point, or at least its parameters, will be the subject of intense discussion at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Reuters GraphicsAnd during that time, Fed policymakers, with the notable exception of Powell, have offered a range of views on where they stand on a possible slowdown or even pause to rate hikes. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, for instance, said she'll look for signs that inflation is moving down before she would want to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Reuters Graphics'NEED TO BE CONVINCED'Bets in futures markets weigh heavily in favor of a slowdown in rate hikes starting in December, but ultimately a top Fed policy rate of 4.75%-5.00%, slightly higher than policymakers themselves have flagged, by early next year. Fed policymakers, Reinhart said, are also well aware that monetary policy typically goes too far.

☆ Tempted to buy the dip on tech stocks? Strategist reveals when to get back in
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Amazon , Meta and Alphabet 's stocks all tanked last week after disappointing earnings, but investors looking to buy tech stocks on the dip should hold off for now, according to strategist Dan Scott. Still, he suggested that wasn't enough for the central bank to move away from its hawkish stance on raising interest rates. Instead, she expects a multiple compression, such as a decline in price-to-earnings ratio, in Big Tech stocks by the end of the year. Markets are expecting interest rates to rise by 75 basis points on Nov. 2, with a similar rise on Dec. 14. The problem is the outlook: 2-8% growth is not what I'm looking for in the tech stocks," he said.

☆ Stocks sag, bond yields firm as yen sinks further
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The strong dollar continued to loom over currency markets, with the yen sinking to a 32-year low against the greenback. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched a 14-year high, while 2-year German government bond yields rose to their highest since December 2008. But earnings are likely to fall next year which, along with anticipated interest rate hikes in the United States and elsewhere, are already largely priced into markets, Osman said. China's stock market (.SSEC) fell while Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) hit levels last seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The rise in the dollar and yields pushed gold lower, with prices lingering at a three-week trough on Thursday.

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The dollar hit the symbolic level of 150 yen on Thursday as the greenback was supported by Treasury yields trading at multi-year highs, keeping markets on high alert for any signs of an intervention from Japanese authorities. Moves among other majors were more muted with the euro at $0.97835 and sterling at $1.1217, both failing to regain ground on the dollar, after tumbling the day before. The fragile yen briefly weakened past 150 per dollar in early European trading for the first time since August 1990. The Japanese currency has been weakening as the country's central bank has been intervening in markets to keep Japanese benchmark yields pinned near zero, at a time when those elsewhere are rising. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.18% on Thursday, its highest level since mid-2008, while the two-year Treasury yields touched a 15-year high of 4.6079%.

☆ Dollar rides Treasury yields higher, yen closes in on key 150 level
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The dollar loomed over major peers on Thursday as Treasury yields peaked at multi-year highs, while the yen slid to a fresh 32-year low and kept markets on high alert for any signs of an intervention. The fragile yen hit a fresh trough of 149.98 per dollar, its lowest since August 1990, and last bought 149.975. "Given that Treasury yields have moved decisively above 4%, were it not for the threat of intervention then I think dollar/yen would already be trading north of 150." The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.154% on Thursday, its highest level since mid-2008, while the two-year Treasury yields touched a 15-year high of 4.582%. "Because central banks misjudged how high inflation would go, they're really still catching up by increasing interest rates significantly, and that's going to cause big problems for the world economy, particularly next year," said CBA's Capurso.

☆ Dollar rides Treasury yields higher, yen flirts with key 150 level
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen hit a fresh trough of 149.96 per dollar, its lowest since August 1990, and last bought 149.92. "Given that Treasury yields have moved decisively above 4%, were it not for the threat of intervention then I think dollar/yen would already be trading north of 150." The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.154%, its highest level since mid-2008, while the two-year Treasury yields touched a 15-year high of 4.582%. It bottomed at 7.2794 per dollar, the lowest level since such data first became available in 2011, and last traded 7.2615. It had hit an almost two-week high of $0.5719 on Tuesday, following release of a hot inflation data, prompting bets of a more aggressive central bank rate hike.

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