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Pending home sales dropped to their lowest level on record in October as mortgage rates remain high. The decline in pending home sales exceeds the drop seen during the 2008 housing bust. AdvertisementPending home sales fell in October to its lowest level on record, exceeding the decline seen during the 2008 housing collapse. But a decline in interest rates since then has pushed mortgage rates back down to about 7.3%. That slight decline in mortgage rates should help open up the housing market, but it's likely still not enough to completely thaw the frozen market.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, Freddie Mac, Yun Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors
Inflation Continues to Cool as Energy Prices Fall
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Tim Smart | Nov. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
Both are yet another indication that inflation has moderated from its pace of last year when consumer inflation was running at a 9.1% annual rate. “After fears of "sticky" and "persistent" inflation, the month to month slowing in the core pce readings is encouraging. Core pce has risen by 0.3% or less for 8 consecutive months. Political Cartoons on Inflation View All 19 Images"This report hit the trifecta,” said Navy Federal Credit Union corporate economist Robert Frick. “During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
Persons: ” Kathy Jones, , Robert Frick, , Zumper, Lawrence Yun, Curt Long Organizations: Federal Reserve, pce, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal Credit Union, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Fed, Labor, National Association of Federal Credit Unions, Dow Jones Industrial Locations:
Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, dropped 1.5% in October from September. They hit the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking this metric in 2001, meaning it's even worse than readings during the financial crisis over a decade ago. Because the index measures signed contracts, it is the most recent indicator of housing demand. The realtors continue to say it's not just high rates but still very low supply of homes for sale that is deflating activity. The Realtors noted that sales of homes priced above $750,000 have been increasing simply because there is more supply on the high end of the market.
Persons: it's, Lawrence Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News, The realtors, NAR, Realtors Locations: Northeast
Washington, DC CNN —US pending home sales fell to their lowest level in 20 years in October as mortgage rates surged to their highest levels of the year, according to a report released Thursday. Pending home sales dropped 1.5% last month from September, monthly data from the National Association of Realtors showed. The pending home sales index — a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings rather than closings — was down 8.5% from a year ago. Completed sales of existing homes and sales of new construction homes, which are also based on contract signings, also fell in October. In October, existing home sales fell to the lowest level in 13 years, remaining below 4 million for the first time since October 2010.
Persons: , , Lawrence Yun, Yun, Hannah Jones, October’s, Jones, — Jones, ” Jones, Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Realtors, Northeast, NAR, Realtor.com, Locations: Washington, Midwest, South, West
The shutdowns of 2020 created a perfect storm for the housing market — and supercharged the clash between Wall Street and regular homebuyers. Given the attention these markets received during the pandemic, it's no wonder that the battle between Wall Street and Main Street became the dominant story of COVID-era homebuying. Advertisement"If Wall Street was really gobbling up Main Street," Sharga told me, "we would see homeownership rates go down." Wall Street landlords have also been increasingly selling off homes to regular people, a Business Insider analysis found. Still circlingWhile average homebuyers have staged a comeback over the past three years, Wall Street isn't ready to jump out of the housing market altogether.
Persons: homebuyers, That's, Wall, elbowed, Rick Sharga, CJ Patrick Company, they're, who've, Axios, Sharga, CoreLogic, Pretium —, John Voorheis, Voorheis, , Freddie Mac, James Rodriguez Organizations: Rage, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Parcl Labs, Labs, National Association of Realtors, Wall Street, Investor, Wall, Tricon, Associates, Investors, Center for Economic Studies, Census Locations: Phoenix, Chicago, homebuilders, homeownership, Dallas, Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta
The typical first-time home buyer made a down payment of 8% and relied on their savings to do so. Why has the typical down payment for first-time buyers reached an over two-decade high when the housing market is so expensive? In part, it's because wealthier first-time buyers — who can more easily afford a higher down payment — have been particularly active in the housing market. In 2023, the typical first-time homebuyer had a household income of $96,000, up from $71,000 in 2022. Last year, the share of first-time homebuyers reached 26% , the lowest level since the survey began in 1981.
Persons: , homebuyer, Jessica Lautz, it's, homebuyers Organizations: Service, National Association of, NAR
US new home sales fall more than expected in October
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
New home sales dropped 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. September's sales pace was revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, would fall to a rate of 723,000 units. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 3%, making many reluctant to sell, boosting demand for new construction. Mortgage rates soared as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to fight inflation.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Torsten Slok, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Apollo Global Management, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, New York
Susan, a 30-something artist, lived in New York City when the pandemic struck. The pair had talked about moving to a smaller town someday — the pandemic just shortened their timeline. As rent prices in big cities shot up and jobs went remote, cash-strapped people were quick to take advantage of an unprecedented situation and try someplace new. It was also a favor to her husband, who never felt at peace in the bustle of the big city. A few months ago, she and her husband found a renter for their house and returned to the city.
Persons: Susan, Eager, Riordan Frost, Millennials, Frost, Alex Gatien, he's, Gatien, Alexander von Hoffman, von Hoffman, Sandro Galea, Galea, Kelli María Korducki Organizations: Harvard's, for Housing Studies, National Association of Realtors, New, Boston University School of Public, Boston University School of Public Health Locations: New York City, McMansions, Toronto, St, Lawrence, Canada, New York
That's largely because it's become much harder to buy a home, the "big ticket" to wealth for most Americans. Less wealthy Americans have also been slammed by high inflation, high borrowing costs, and meager wage gains. An inaccessible housing market spells trouble for those looking to build up their nest eggs, according to BankRate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman. With ever-more Americans priced out of the housing market, that gap could grow wider. The struggle to build wealth — by way of the housing market or other means — has been reflected in the latest economic data.
Persons: It's, it's, , Ted Rossman, Rossman, aren't, Fannie Mae, Michael Neal, Neal, Bankrate's Rossman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Federal, National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Urban Institute Locations:
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHomebuyers can expect mortgage rates in the 6% range next year, says NAR's Lawrence YunLawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the housing market, why he believes it's a strange market of record-high home prices, deep-slumping home sales, and more.
Persons: NAR's Lawrence Yun Lawrence Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors
Mortgage rates have been falling consistently for several weeks now, and 30-year mortgage rates are finally back down near 7% after spiking close to 8% last month. So far this year, high mortgage rates have made homeowners reluctant to sell and give up the low rates they're currently paying. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.76% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a five-basis-point drop from last week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit.
Persons: It's, Lawrence Yun, Freddie Mac Organizations: homebuyers, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Zillow, Fed Locations: Chevron
Total application volume increased 3% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Most mortgage rates in our survey decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreasing to the lowest rate in two months," said Joel Kan, MBA's deputy chief economist. Applications to refinance a home loan increased 2% for the week and were just 4% lower than the same week one year ago. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 4% week to week but were still 20% lower than one year ago. Mortgage rates moved slightly lower this week, but analysts are not expecting any major moves in the near future.
Persons: Joel Kan, Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: U.S . Mortgage, Mortgage, National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News Locations: Columbus , Ohio, U.S
Activity is now at a 13-year low as rising borrowing costs take their toll on the US housing market. Mortgage rates have cleared 7.5% this year, driven higher by the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation. AdvertisementThe spike in mortgage rates dragged on the US housing market once again last month, as activity plunged to a 13-year low even as prices ticked up. Soaring mortgage rates, driven to their highest level since the turn of the century by the Federal Reserve's war on inflation, have fueled the housing-market slowdown. As a result, existing homeowners have opted to cling to the historically low mortgage rates they locked in over the last 15 years rather than move house.
Persons: , Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal, Service, Biden Administration, NAR
October Home Sales Likely Fell to New 13-Year Low
  + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Nicole Friedman | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Even as home-buying demand has fallen, the inventory of homes for sale remains low because high rates make homeowners unwilling to sell and move. Photo: Jamie Kelter Davis for The Wall Street JournalTuesday’s existing-home-sales report is expected to show that the number of home sales in October fell to a new 13-year low. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate sales of previously owned homes fell a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in October from September. High home prices and elevated mortgage rates have made home purchases far less affordable for buyers, pushing many out of the market. Even as home-buying demand has slumped, the inventory of homes for sale has stayed low because high rates are making homeowners unwilling to sell and move.
Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis Organizations: The Wall, Wall, National Association of Realtors
“Participants generally noted a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,” the minutes noted. “FOMC minutes reinforced the ’wait and see’ policy stance was unanimous. Focus was on tightening in financial conditions and slowing in inflation and labor market. The central bank will meet on Dec. 12 for a two-day meeting of its monetary policy committee, but the markets are pricing in no increase in interest rates. “I’m expecting continued relief concerning inventory and mortgage rates as the Fed begins cutting rates in the first half of next year,” Torres says.
Persons: , ” Kathy Jones, Jose Torres, “ I’m, ” Torres, Torres Organizations: Schwab Center, Financial Research, Fed, National Association of Realtors, Interactive
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slumped in October to their slowest pace in more than 13 years as surging mortgage rates and rising prices kept many prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. That’s weaker than the 3.90 million sales pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet. They have fallen five months in a row, held back by climbing mortgage rates and a thin supply of properties on the market. Political Cartoons View All 1260 Images“Lack of inventory along with higher mortgage rates (are) really hindering home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. That amounts to just a 3.6-month supply, going by the current sales pace.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, Freddie Mac, homebuyers Organizations: ANGELES, National Association of Realtors, Homes, NAR Locations: U.S
"The combination of high prices, high mortgage rates, and millions of homeowners unwilling to move, given they've locked in low rates, has frozen the market," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales would slide to a rate of 3.90 million units. Existing home salesTIGHT SUPPLYThere were 1.15 million previously owned homes on the market last month, down 5.7% from a year ago. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 5%, making many reluctant to sell. At October's sales pace, it would take 3.6 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.3 months a year ago.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Robert Frick, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, National Association of Realtors, Navy Federal Credit Union, homebuyers, Reuters, Treasury, realtors, U.S, Congress, Builders, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Vienna , Virginia, Northeast, West, Midwest, Charlotte , North Carolina
Sales slumped in October and prices continued to climb, as mortgage rates surged last month and inventory remained extraordinarily low. Home sales remained at 13-year lows as buyers competed for the few available homes on the market and continued to push up prices. Elevated prices, together with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearing 8% in October, have created the least affordable market in several decades. Home sales were down in lower priced categories – under $750,000 – due to lack of inventory and sales grew in higher price categories where there was more inventory. “The lack of inventory and higher interest rates really hitting the home sales market,” said Yun.
Persons: , , Lawrence Yun, Yun, Organizations: DC CNN —, National Association of Realtors, West, NAR, Locations: Washington, Northeast, Midwest, South
The October sales count is based on closings from contracts likely signed in August and September. At the end of October there were 1.15 million homes for sale, down 5.7% from a year earlier. Sales fell in all price categories up to $750,000, but there was an increase in sales of higher end homes. Yun also noted that there are more homes available for sale on the higher end of the market. First-time buyers represented 28% of October sales, unchanged from a year ago and still significantly lower than the 40% share they have represented historically.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors
Sales of existing homes fell by 4.1% in October as a shortage of houses for sale and higher mortgage rates dampened activity, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. The annual level of sales reached 3.79 million, down 14.6% from a year ago when sales were 4.44 million. “Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. There is some relief, however, as mortgage rates have fallen in the past week. Some housing industry analysts believe rates could trend under 7% early next year as overall interest rates begin falling amid expectations the Federal Reserve is done raising rates.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, , Danielle Hale Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Midwest, Federal Locations:
Millennial and Gen Z parents are struggling
  + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +16 min
AdvertisementMillennial and Gen Z parents are finding themselves isolated. But they and Gen Zers behind them have finally caught up to previous generations in terms of their income, Jean Twenge, a psychologist and the author of "Generations: The Real Differences Between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers, and Silents—and What They Mean for America's Future," told me. As fast as the money comes in from the pay raises that millennials and Gen Zers have secured, for parents the money goes right back out. These realities can force many millennial and Gen Z parents to make tough choices. But, at the same time, young parents are fleeing those walkable cities for the towns next door.
Persons: Kyle Taylor doesn't, Taylor, they're, Gen, they've, We've, Natalie Groff, Gen Zers, Jean Twenge, Gen X, Silents, Twenge, Groff, she's, Jimmy Gomez, Gomez, of Labor He's, Zers, It's, millennials, they'd, Brittany Pettersen, we've, Pettersen, that's, She's, Becca Balint, didn't, Balint, That's, who's, isn't, Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Department of Labor, Congressional, Caucus, of Labor, Pew Research Center, National Association of Realtors, Deloitte, Democratic Locations: The Alabama, New York City, California, Younger, Colorado, America, Vermont
Nearly one-fourth of that was built through real estate equity. With less pressure from interest rates, they can take advantage of the current real estate market, too. They're also in the perfect position to help themselves by taking advantage of the current real estate market. However, boomers can make stronger bids on homes for sale because of their savings and real estate equity. AdvertisementMeanwhile, more than one-third of house purchases in September were all-cash, according to the real estate broker RedFin.
Persons: , They're, Jessica Lautz, RedFin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Brigade, Census Bureau, Federal, Rosenberg Research, North, Federal Reserve Locations: North American
Similar suits are making their way through the courts, with more filed after the verdict, adding additional pressure on the industry. The ruling “will reshape the housing market," said Ryan Tomasello, a managing director covering real estate technology at the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, affecting “the industry not just from the perspective of the consumer, but from the perspective of real estate brokers and agents.”N.A.R. said it plans to appeal the verdict. Interviews with real estate agents in markets around the country revealed an industry wrestling with its identity and uncertain about the road ahead. Others are convinced that the verdict will result in only modest changes, perhaps a few more disclosure forms atop an endless pile of paperwork.
Persons: brokerages, Ryan Tomasello, Keefe, ” N.A.R Organizations: National Association of Realtors Locations: Missouri
Mortgage rates have soared north of 7% in recent months, driven higher by the Federal Reserve's war on inflation. One-in-three homebuyers are paying all-cash rather than taking out a mortgage, according to data from Redfin. AdvertisementMore than a third of homes are being bought in cash, according to data from Redfin, with low affordability and high mortgage rates pricing poorer Americans out of the housing market. That's a sign that wealthier Americans are making up a greater share of homebuyers with sky-high mortgage rates pricing out the rest of the population, Redfin said. Existing homeowners have also opted to cling to the historically low mortgage rates they locked in over the last 15 years.
Persons: , Redfin, Dana Anderson, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal, Service, National Association of Realtors, Business Locations: That's
You'll need to make over $200,000 annually to afford a home in some California cities, a recent National Association of Realtors report reveals. Perhaps unsurprisingly, cities that require the highest income are large urban coastal hubs where homes tend to be more expensive. In California, homes are both desirable and scarce, which is why the state has some of the highest home prices in the U.S. Here are the 11 metro areas where households need to earn over $200,000 to afford a median-priced home. Similarly, homes in smaller rust belt and rural cities are much cheaper compared with some cities in California.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Thousand Oaks, San Locations: California, San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara , California, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Irvine , California, Francisco, Oakland, Hayward , California, Honolulu, Hawaii, Diego, Carlsbad , California, Salinas , California, Oxnard, Ventura , California, Angeles, Long, Glendale , California, San Luis Obispo, Paso Robles , California, Boulder , Colorado, Naples, Marco Island, Florida, Decatur , Illinois, Charleston , West Virginia, Erie , Pennsylvania, Youngstown , Ohio
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