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☆ Instant View: US payrolls show labor market remains strong but wages rises cool
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Monthly job growth is well above the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working age population. "Through the rest of the report, the average hourly earnings month over month came in at 0.3%. But everything else about this shows a very, very resilient labor market which doesn’t bode well for a smaller rate hike. "Fed will look at these numbers and say that the labor market is still pretty robust and to the extent that they would like to see a bit of slack in the labor market."

☆ U.S. manufacturing sector contracts, prices decline in December-ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index tumbled to 45.2, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.2 in November. The survey's measure of supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 from 47.2 in November. The ISM survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 39.4 from 43.0 in November. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment rebounded to 51.4 from 48.4 in November. According to a Reuters survey of economists, manufacturing employment likely increased by 9,000 jobs in December after rising 14,000 in November.

A survey from the Labor Department showed job openings fell 54,000 to 10.458 million on the last day of November, compared with expectations of 10 million job openings. The data indicated a still tight labor market that could give the Fed cover to keep rates higher for longer. Market participants see a 68% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike from the Fed in February, and see rates peaking at 4.99% by June. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.53-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.18-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil stocks lift London shares on first trading day of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 up 1.4%, FTSE 250 adds 1.3%Jan 3 (Reuters) - UK's exporter-heavy FTSE 100 jumped 1.4% on Tuesday, marking a strong start to the New Year, as energy stocks rallied and investors waited for manufacturing data due later in the day. The blue chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) rose 1.4% by 0820 GMT after far outperforming regional peers with a 0.9% rise in 2022. The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 midcaps (.FTMC) rose 1.1%, while the broader pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.7%. As crude prices rose, oil majors Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) gained in early trading, pushing the broader energy sector (.FTNMX601010) up 4.2%. Rolls-Royce (RR.L) rose 4.9% to top the FTSE 100, after Jefferies raised the airplane engine maker to "buy" from "hold".

☆ Morning Bid: Making waves
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Surveys out over the weekend showed China's factory activity in December shrank at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as COVID infections swept through production lines. About 9,000 people in China are probably dying each day from COVID, health data firm Airfinity said last week. Still, as trading progressed on Tuesday morning, traders appeared to be weighing longer-run prospects for the world's second-largest economy after the worst of the COVID waves had passed. The Chinese yuan rose to a four-month high and stocks in Hong Kong, Seoul and Shanghai shook off early losses. chartKey developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:- U.S. manufacturing PMI (December)Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Jan 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. China firing on something approaching all cylinders would offer a much-needed boost to the world economy this year. In the near term, however, China COVID fears may overshadow the long-term benefits and weigh on sentiment accordingly. A cautious start to the year for markets, and a gloomy Chinese PMI report, would come as no surprise. Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia manufacturing PMI (December)- China Caixin manufacturing PMI (December)- U.S. manufacturing PMI (December)Reporting by Jamie McGeever in Orlando, Fla.; Editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Xi Jinping estimates China’s 2022 GDP grew at least 4.4%. But Covid misery looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s economy grew at least 4.4% in 2022, according to leader Xi Jinping, a figure much stronger than many economists had expected. China’s annual GDP is expected to have exceeded 120 trillion yuan ($17.4 trillion) last year, Xi said in a televised New Year’s Eve speech on Saturday. Economists had generally expected growth to slump to a rate between 2.7% and 3.3% for 2022. But an explosion of Covid infections, triggered by the abrupt easing of pandemic restrictions in early December, is clouding the outlook. However, some forecast the economy will rebound after March, as people learn to live with Covid.

☆ Chinese manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world's strictest COVID restrictions in early December. Cumulative infections likely reached 18.6 million in December, UK-based health data firm Airfinity estimated. GDP expanded 3% in the first nine months of 2022, versus China's official full-year goal of around 5.5%. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1.

☆ China Dec manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world's strictest COVID restrictions in early December. Weakening external demand on the back of growing global recession fears amid rising interest rates, inflation and the war in Ukraine may further slow China's exports, hurting its massive manufacturing sector and hampering the economic recovery. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Jan. 3.

☆ China's factory activity likely cooled in December on COVID surge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity is expected to have extended declines in December, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the end of the country's "zero-COVID" policy and rising infections began to affect production lines. An index reading below the 50-mark indicates contraction in activity on a monthly basis and a reading above indicates expansion. The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Saturday. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Jan. 3. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a headline reading of 48.8, down from 49.4 in November.

☆ Markets close out the year down, following light week of trading
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Markets closed out the week — and the year — in the red, as the so-called Santa Claus rally failed to materialize. Under the hood, financials closed out the week in the green followed by energy, while materials led to the downside followed by consumer staples and utilities. On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 24 came in at 225,000, the U.S. Labor Department said. ET: ISM manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Jobs report hangs over markets in first week of new year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The first week of the new year will be a busy one with December's jobs report looming Friday, and many investors may be looking for ways to fix up their portfolios after 2022's battering. What to watch Friday's jobs report is one of two big events on the market calendar in the coming week. The jobs report is very important because it is the final employment report the Fed will consider before its next meeting, Feb. 1. For all years since 1945, the S & P 500 has averaged an 8.6% gain and was up 70% of the time. The worst major S & P industry sector of 2022 was communications services, down 40.4% as of Thursday's close.

☆ UK downturn moderates in December but recession begins - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose unexpectedly to 49.0 from 48.2 in November, although it remained below the 50 threshold for growth. Separate data on Friday showed a surprise fall in retail sales in November, while consumer confidence remained close to all-time lows this month. "The releases still point to the UK being in a shallow, but protracted, recession at the end of 2022 and into 2023," said Daniel Mahoney, UK economist at Handelsbanken. S&P Global said the PMI was consistent with a roughly 0.3% drop in economic output in the fourth quarter. The manufacturing PMI slid to 44.7 from 46.5, marking its lowest level since May 2020 - during the depths of the first COVID-19 lockdown.

☆ Critical inflation report could be the key to the week ahead, as the Fed meets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation and a hawkish Fed "I think the data can influence his press conference and how hawkish he is," said NatWest Markets' John Briggs. "If you get a higher CPI report on the back of that, it could create some significant market instability ahead of the Fed meeting." Recession fears "If you're more worried about recession than inflation, that means you bring in more bond buyers than sellers," he said. Retail sales, industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey as well as the Empire State manufacturing survey are released Thursday. Import prices 2:00 p.m. Fed statement and projections 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Thursday Earnings: Adobe, Jabil 8:30 a.m.

☆ Dollar holds firm on hawkish Fed bets, Aussie tad higher after RBA
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening. "The dollar really kicked butt across the board," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. Investors had been on watch for signs of a pause in tightening after inflation unexpectedly cooled last month. "And with the RBA expecting inflation to continue higher and household spending remaining strong as ever, then the RBA may well hike by another 25 bps in February and March before reassessing." In recent days though, RBA policy has taken a back seat to optimism about an easing of strangling COVID-19 restrictions in China, a top trading partner.

It had dipped to 104.1 for the first time since June 28 as traders continued to rein in bets of aggressive Fed tightening. "The dollar really kicked butt across the board," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo. The Aussie dollar rose 0.21% to $0.6713, clawing back some of a 1.4% overnight tumble. In recent days though, RBA policy has taken a back seat to optimism about an easing of strangling COVID-19 restrictions in China, a top trading partner. "We expect the RBA to change its forward guidance in a subtle but significant way from 'expects to increase interest rates further' to 'likely to increase interest rates further' or 'willing to increase interest rates further,' (which) would indicate the RBA considers it is at or at least near the end of its tightening cycle," pushing the Aussie lower.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee below 82/USD for first time in a month, premiums at 12-yr low
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The rupee was at 82.2550 to the dollar at 10:58 a.m. IST, down from 81.79 in the previous session. The local unit dropped to a low of 82.34, a level last seen on Nov. 4. Talk of a mining company's large dividend payment-related dollar outflow was adding to the USD/INR upside momentum, they added. Meanwhile, USD/INR forward premiums fell more to slip to their lowest level in more than a decade. The RBI will raise interest rates by a smaller 35 basis points to 6.25%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

"Good news on the economy is bad news for inflation, whether that's China opening up or lower gasoline prices." The 10-year's yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.596%. The 10-year German bund , the bloc's benchmark, rose 1.3 basis points to 1.890%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and is expected to raise rates by a mere 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.

☆ Dollar gains broadly as upbeat U.S. data muddles Fed rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( John Mccrank | Seher Dareen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The survey followed on the heels of stronger-than-expected job and wage growth data for November released last Friday. "The ISM services PMI data highlighted a U.S. economy that's still showing some strength, despite tighter financial conditions," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While that's good news for the growth outlook, it's not so great for the Fed trying to dampen demand and ease inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." "I think this issue about 'peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar' - I think - is slowly turning into a 'persistence of inflation, a persistence of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

☆ Morning bid: Capped
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook:The Fed is in blackout and the World Cup is starting to get serious. Positioning suggests bets against the dollar remain pretty light, and even lightened a little bit last week. Monday in Europe also marks the beginning of the G7's $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil. It's not clear what that means for oil supply and prices, because Russia says it won't abide by the measure, even if that means cutting production. On the pitch, Asia's last contenders, Japan and South Korea, take on Croatia and Brazil, respectively.

☆ U.S. service sector activity picks up in November - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy as it braces for an anticipated recession next year. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in 2-1/2 years, the ISM reported last week. In November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

☆ U.S. services industry regains steam; factory orders accelerate
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists shrugged off a survey from S&P Global confirming its services PMI was stuck in contraction territory in November. Thirteen services industries including construction, healthcare and social assistance, retail trade as well as professional, scientific and technical services reported growth last month. But information, wholesale trade and management of companies and support services reported a decline. Factory ordersIn November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

☆ Treasury yields climb as investors digest jobs data, await ISM Services report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at around 4.3273% after climbing by almost five basis points. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors awaited the latest ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) report and continued to digest a slew of jobs data released last week. Investors are waiting for November's ISM PMI report for non-manufacturing industries, which will be published on Monday. The Federal Reserve has been trying to push back against rising prices and has therefore implemented four consecutive 75 basis point so far this year. Central bank officials are due to meet again on Dec. 13 and 14, and are widely expected to announce a 50 basis point rate hike then.

☆ China's factory activity shrinks in Nov amid widespread COVID curbs - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, Dec 1 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank in November as widespread COVID-19 curbs disrupted manufacturers' output, a private sector survey showed on Thursday, weighing on employment and economic growth in the fourth quarter. But the reading marks the fourth monthly contraction in a row as the 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts see mounting downside risks to China's economic growth in the fourth quarter despite a flurry of policies to shore up activity, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and support to rescue the sluggish property sector. Sub-indexes of factory output, employment and new export orders all fell at a sharper pace in November from October, the private Caixin survey showed. The Caixin manufacturing PMI centres on small firms and coastal regions, which includes a number of exporters.

☆ C$ dips against greenback; falls harder vs other G10 currencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It was the only G10 currency to lose ground against the U.S. dollar . The greenback fell 1.1% against a basket of major currencies. "In a weak U.S. dollar environment, the Canadian dollar often lags," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. Chances that the BoC would hike by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at a policy decision next Wednesday have fallen to roughly 10% from 30% since Powell's comments, money market data showed. The Canadian 10-year yield fell 9.3 basis points to 2.842%, its lowest level since Aug. 18.

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