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HSBC initiates American Express as buy HSBC said it sees healthy earnings growth for American Express . Mizuho reiterates Meta as buy Mizuho said it's standing by its buy rating heading into earnings later this month. Bernstein reiterates Tesla as underperform Bernstein concluded in an analysis of Tesla that the company is more of an automaker than a tech company. Barclays upgrades Varonis Systems to overweight from equal weight Barclays said it sees numerous positive catalysts ahead for the software company. Northland upgrades SolarEdge to outperform from market perform Northland said investors should buy the dip in shares of SolarEdge .
Persons: Cowen, NVDA, Mizuho, Stephens, Bernstein, Tesla, underperform Bernstein, Warren Buffett, Hershey, Morgan Stanley downgrades JD.com, Morgan Stanley, Gordon Haskett, Todd Vasos, Jeff Owen, Read, Wolfe, today's, Baird, Needham, Oppenheimer, Wells, LULU, Meghan Frank, Howard Tubin Organizations: HSBC, American, American Express, Bank of America, Nvidia, Meta, Barclays, Varonis, Hershey, JPMorgan, Post Holdings, Netflix, Citi, Oshkosh, Lam Research, Materials, Supply, VP Locations: 4Q22, Northland, SolarEdge, Israel, California
Just as they did during the March regional banking crisis, higher rates are expected to lead to a jump in losses on banks' bond portfolios and contribute to funding pressures as institutions are forced to pay higher rates for deposits. The issue constrains the bank's interest revenue and has made the lender the worst stock performer this year among the top six U.S. institutions. Expectations on the impact of higher rates on banks' balance sheets varied. Still, others including KBW and UBS analysts said that other factors could soften the capital hit from higher rates for most of the industry. There's also concern that higher interest rates will result in ballooning losses in commercial real estate and industrial loans.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Marco Bello, Christopher McGratty, David Konrad, McGratty, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Konrad, Gerard Cassidy Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Reuters, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First, Bank of America, Comerica, Fifth Third Bank, KeyBank, UBS, RBC Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S, Wells Fargo, Silicon, First Republic
Things seem to have taken a turn lower in the crypto market, but bitcoin offers a glimmer of hope and Wolfe Research is defending its long view of the asset. The crypto market continues to struggle from low volume and liquidity that have dragged on for most of the year. "That changed this week with Monday seeing over $105 million in crypto liquidations, and the equal weight crypto index we track breaking down in turn," Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. On top of that, Treasury yields remain high amid stubbornly high inflation and uncertainty around the Israel-Hamas war. Crypto stocks are also trading down, but may be finding support now, according to Wolfe.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, bitcoin, it's, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC, ETF Locations: bitcoin, Israel
The third-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week, and the Street is expecting a modest return to growth after the disappointing first half of 2023. Energy prices are a major watch item across all industries, after crude prices surged 29% in third quarter. We will provide additional thoughts on the coming earnings season during our October Monthly Meeting on Wednesday at noon ET. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. A pedestrian passes a Wall Street subway station near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Monday, June 27, 2022.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley, CNBC's Robert Hum, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Communication, Staples, Hamas, U.S ., JPMorgan Chase, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Israel's, New York, U.S
Walmart told the analysts the small group of known customers who take the drugs spend more overall. AdvertisementAdvertisementWalmart is trying to clarify the impact weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are actually having on its bottom line. AdvertisementAdvertisementBut speaking to Morgan Stanley analysts, Walmart has clarified "two potential misconceptions," the analysts wrote. But, within this group, Walmart observed these customers were spending slightly less on food year over year. In aggregate, GLP-1 spending changes are not moving the needle for Walmart's total business, the authors write.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , John Furner, Furner, hasn't, Rice Krispies Organizations: Walmart, Service, Bloomberg
Hedge fund investor Dan Niles sees a buying opportunity in small-cap and consumer staples stocks right now. The Russell 2000 , the barometer for small-cap stocks, is now up about 1% in 2023. .RUT YTD mountain Russell 2000 year to date He is also in consumer staples stocks, which gives him a little bit of defense as well, he said. The fourth-largest weighting in Satori Fund's consumer staples basket is PepsiCo , Niles said. Niles' tech picks Meanwhile, Niles sees an uphill battle for big tech.
Persons: Dan Niles, Russell, Niles Organizations: PepsiCo, Pepsi, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple Locations: Israel, U.S
Insider Today: Market's crash landing
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The core question it presents is whether personal AI devices could have the same impact that the iPhone had on the tech industry. Meta's Responsible AI team shrank amid layoffs and restructuring. Yet the team tasked with ensuring that new AI tech was "fair and inclusive" is half the size it was in 2021. Yet the team tasked with ensuring that new AI tech was "fair and inclusive" is half the size it was in 2021.
Persons: , Benjamin Netanyahu, Insider's Matthew Fox, Mohamed El, Matthew, Jerome Powell, hasn't, mavens, Izzy Englander, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Point72, Steve Cohen, Phil McCarten, Dave Kotinsky, Shaw, Victor Virgile, Arantza Pena Popo, Bella Hadid, John Lennon, Ben Shelton, Sharon Osbourne, William Hanson, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Hamas, Saturday, Israeli, Citadel, federal, Tech, Peoples, Indian Heritage Locations: Israel, D.E, Cupertino, China, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Hawaii, Alabama, Dakota, Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
Q3 S & P 500 earnings: Trending higher July 1: $55.76 Today: $55.78 Source: LSEG Q4 S & P 500 earnings: Trending higher July 1: $57.58 Today: $58.14 Source: LSEG The fact that the third quarter estimate of $55.78 is slightly below the third quarter of last year ($56.02) is not important; what matters is the trend in earnings. For Q3 2023, 76 S & P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 42 S & P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. "The earnings outlook for the S & P 500 for the third quarter is less negative relative to recent quarters," Butters told clients. "The percentage of companies issuing negative earnings guidance is equal to the 10-year average." Here's what stands out: The average earnings growth was 10.6%; the average revenue growth was 4.2%.
Persons: , John Butters, Butters, Nick Raich, It's, Chadha Organizations: FactSet, Companies, FedEx, Oracle, Darden, Costco, Pepsi, PepsiCo, Frito, Barclays, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank Locations: America, AutoZone, United States, Mexico, Russia, Canada, China, South Africa, Japan, abate
The resumption of student-loan payments is expected to add further strain. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy has thrived over the past three years, since the initial shock of COVID-19 gave way to a rapid recovery. Here's what banks and economists are saying about the impact of the student-loan payment resumption on the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhat will happen to the economy with the student-loan payment restartIt's difficult to predict how exactly the economy will respond to a surge of borrowers facing student-loan payments again — and it depends on a number of factors.
Persons: , Marshall Steinbaum —, University of Utah —, Jerome Powell, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Jeff Gennette, Michael Fiddelke, Jefferies, Education James Kvaal Organizations: Service, Family Institute, University of Utah, Education Department, Federal, United Auto Workers, Bank of America, Education Locations: Helena
Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.
Persons: , Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, , — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan
Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, , Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas
Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.
Persons: it's, , Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, , Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington
Friday's jobs report came in well above expectations, leading markets to see higher odds of another rate hike. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter the red-hot September jobs report, markets are pricing in higher odds for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at the November meeting. Investors are now staring down the prospect of higher for longer interest rates. "Bond markets are reflecting an outlook for better growth as rates move higher and equities are digesting an environment where earnings might be better, but higher rates are a headwind to valuation." Bank of America strategists, for their part, warned that stocks have room to fall further before the Fed pulls back on interest rates.
Persons: , CME's, Steve Wyett Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, The Labor Department, Treasury, BOK, Bank of America, Fed Locations: Treasurys
Ray Dalio says the primary source of pain for stocks is going to get worse before it improves. Surging Treasury yields have been a major headwind for equities, which have seen their appeal dented by the ever-rising risk-free return offered to bond investors. "We sit at a moment in those bonds that it would seem like something like a 5% rate," Dalio said. That means high yields are bad news for economic growth, he noted. As for AI, Dalio sees a "super huge" impact, although he's wary of a speculative bubble former.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Treasury, Greenwich Economic, Federal Locations: Greenwich, Central
Stocks have sold off as Wall Street accepted that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer to crush inflation. Corporate debt refinancings are going to start hitting profits more urgently starting in 2024, according to Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek. "[T]hat higher interest expense is likely to create a $5-$7/share headwind for S & P 500 operating EPS in 2024," Senyek said. Stocks have sold off as Wall Street accepted that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer to crush inflation. "[T]hat higher interest expense is likely to create a $5-$7/share headwind for S&P 500 operating EPS in 2024," Senyek said.
Persons: Stocks, Chris Senyek, , Senyek, LSEG, RC Willey, George Frey, BAX Baxter, Lockheed Martin, Kellogg Organizations: Labor Department, Wall, Federal Reserve, Wolfe Research, CNBC, General Motors, United Auto Workers, GM, Whirlpool, Kellogg, RC, Bloomberg, Getty, Equity, Lockheed, AEP American Electric Power, Dominion Energy, Motors, Duke Energy, VZ Verizon Communications, Nasdaq, Stock Screener, Whirlpool Corp Locations: Draper , Utah
In the separation , we decided to keep the 173 shares of Veralto we received due to our ownership of 520 shares of Danaher. When we do that, we see a very favorable picture heading into next year and three reasons to be bullish. Veralto management is targeting long-term core growth in the mid-single-digit range on a percentage basis, whereas Danaher management sees ex-Veralto growth at a high-single-digit rate over the long term. So, as it stands we're already looking at a business that stands to see overall growth accelerate. It's also worth noting that our portfolio stands to benefit from any growth in the stand-alone shares of Veralto.
Persons: it's, , haven't, let's, It's, they're, we'll, Danaher, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Pavlo Gonchar Organizations: Washington , D.C, Management, Deutsche Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Getty Locations: Veralto, Danaher, Washington ,, Silicon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe biggest headwind for oil is concerns about rate hikes, says RBC's Helima CroftHelima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, discusses the key drivers for the oil markets.
Persons: RBC's Helima Croft Helima Croft Organizations: Global, RBC Capital Markets
Lots of Wall Street firms are getting out ahead of this week's earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ) with price target increases. At the time, we were optimistic and increased our price target on the Modelo and Corona maker to $270 per share from $260. When measuring beer growth, he assesses how much shelf space companies get every year and how quickly those products fly off the shelves. All these factors "drive solid beer growth even as the macro environment gets worse," Falorni said. Wedbush also thinks Constellation will be able to weather those macro consumer storms and continue to drive earnings and revenue growth.
Persons: It's, we'll, We'd, Filippo Falorni, there's, Falorni, Wedbush, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Jim Cramer, Bill Newlands, Elliott, Luca Zaramella, Bill Giles, Sands, Jim, Elliot, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Constellation Brands, Modelo, Revenue, Federal Reserve, Constellation, Citi, CNBC, JPMorgan, Modelo Especial, Elliott Management, Club, Mondelez, AutoZone, Getty Locations: Corona, Wells Fargo, U.S, Simi, STZ
Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.
Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, , Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine
We're talking about this year's rise in bond yields, oil prices and the dollar — all at the time same. Nevertheless, bond yields, oil prices and the dollar always have far-reaching implications for the stock market. "The higher yields, that's what's been pressuring the equity market," Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel said Monday on CNBC. In early September, the two countries announced their supply cuts would extend through year-end, a surprise decision that added upward pressure on oil prices. The picture is less clear-cut when considering the impact higher oil prices can have on consumers and non-energy companies.
Persons: , what's, Jeremy Siegel, Brent, WTI, It's, Siegel, Wharton's Siegel, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S, multiweek United Auto Workers, General Motors, Club, Ford, Wharton, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Dow Jones, West, Brent, Natural Resources, Coterra Energy, Consumers, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Apple, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Ukraine, West Texas, Saudi Arabia, Russia, tailwind, headwind
McCormick (MKC) is increasingly becoming an attractive investment opportunity, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Tuesday, as shares of the spice maker sank after a mixed before-the-bell earnings report. McCormick shares, which ended 2019 at roughly $85 apiece, traded around $68 each Tuesday. If you like this story, sign up for Jim Cramer's Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free. Overall, Cramer said he believes McCormick's business is doing well while acknowledging some pain points in the company's third-quarter results. The recent weakness in McCormick's stock may be tied to U.S. government bond yields reaching multiyear highs, Cramer suggested.
Persons: McCormick, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Covid, Cramer, Jim Cramer's, That's, Estee Lauder Organizations: Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Procter, Gamble, Constellation Brands Locations: China, Cramer's
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a Morning Meeting livestream at 10:20 a.m. That means "we know we have to buy something because of our discipline," Jim Cramer said Tuesday. "There are a lot of reasons to buy Amazon," Jim said Tuesday. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Emerson, it's, KeyBanc, Jim, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Labor, Nasdaq, Emerson UBS, Emerson, Amazon JPMorgan, JPMorgan, Amazon Web, U.S . Federal Trade Locations: midmorning
Experts predict oil prices will continue to rise heading into the fourth quarter, driven by tighter supply and production cuts. Despite some profit-taking in the last week of September, crude oil prices have rallied since the summer. That means U.S. crude oil reserves will remain under pressure amid the Saudi production cuts. And questions still remain as to the strength of a resurgence from the Chinese economy and how that will support higher oil prices. Goldman also recently published its list of buy-rated stocks to play higher oil prices, which included Chevron and Baker Hughes .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, Viktor Katona, Katona, Stephen Ellis, Ellis, Ole Hansen, " Hansen, Brian Mulberry, Mulberry, Goldman, Baker Hughes, Neil Mehta, Mehta Organizations: Brent, West, West Texas, Bank of America, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Morningstar, Saxos Bank, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, XOM Locations: West Texas, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, OPEC, U.S, Cushing , Oklahoma, East, Kuwait, Iraq, Ukraine, Iran
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLazard CEO Peter Orszag: Bigger headwind has been uncertainty over rate path as opposed to levelPeter Orszag, Lazard CEO and former OMB director under President Obama, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his new role leading Lazard, the state of the government and U.S. economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: Peter Orszag, Obama, Lazard Organizations: Lazard Locations: U.S
The higher-for-longer interest rate regime poses a direct threat to company profitability, but some stocks are a lot less vulnerable to higher borrow costs, according to Goldman Sachs. The Federal Reserve has taken interest rates to the highest level since 2001 while forecasting one more hike this year. The S & P 500 finished September down 4.9%, suffering its worst month of 2023. The Wall Street firm screened the S & P 500 for stocks with low leverage, high interest coverage and low EBITDA growth variability. Specifically, Goldman identified stocks with net debt to EBITDA below 1, EBIT to interest expense in top quartile among S & P 500 stocks and with EBITDA growth variability in bottom quartile.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, ROE, David Kostin, Stocks, Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Goldman, Federal, Street, Cisco, Cadence Design Systems, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Consumer, Costco Locations: EBITDA
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