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3 Wall Street awaits midterm vote tallies in upbeat mood
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 0.56% on Tuesday during voting that will determine control of the U.S. Congress, with investors betting on a political stalemate that could prevent major policy changes. Republicans are favored to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls and betting markets show, though it may be hours before all vote tallies are known. BROOKS RITCHEY, CO-CIO, K2 ADVISORS"If we get a split Congress, we might have to adjust our portfolios to be less defensive than we are today." JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET CAPITAL, CHICAGO"I think the markets are rallying at the prospect of gridlock." Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Summary Futures up: Dow 0.02%, S&P 0.15%, Nasdaq 0.41%Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Wednesday as results from midterm elections rolled in, with investors bracing for a political gridlock in Washington that would make it harder for drastic policy changes to come through. "You're in a slightly different situation and it does look like the Biden Presidency has not been dealt a massive blow by these midterm elections, so the markets are in a wait-and-see mode." The S&P 500 has posted a gain in each 12-month period after the midterm vote since World War Two, according to Deutsche Bank. S&P 500 has risen in every 12-month period following the U.S. midterm elections over the past 70 yearsAt 3:07 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 7 points, or 0.02%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5 points or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 45.75 points, or 0.41%.
European markets are heading for a lower open on Wednesday as global investors await the results of the U.S. midterm elections. The midterm elections will determine whether Democrats keep their slim majorities in the House and Senate, or if Republicans will seize control of one or both chambers of the legislature, an outcome that would mean there's a significant power shift in Washington and the potential for gridlock. The outcome could make all the difference for President Joe Biden, whose legislative hopes rest on whether Democrats can push his agenda through a hyper-partisan Congress.
Republican victory paves road to softer dollar
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Early results show key victories for Republican candidates in Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee on Tuesday, pushing favor to the conservative party in the House. That means Republicans can block any spending bills that Biden might have otherwise been inclined to push through. Once hints of a shift emerge, markets will quickly pivot from the U.S. dollar, which has become a safe haven, back to riskier assets. But if they don’t, and Republicans hold the line, the U.S. could come dangerously close to default. The elections come after the U.S. dollar has increased 14% year-to-date versus a basket of currencies.
At the end of the day it's gridlock, says Stifel's Brian Gardner
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAt the end of the day it's gridlock, says Stifel's Brian GardnerBrian Gardner, Stifel chief Washington policy analyst, joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss midterm results, the bipartisan coordination needed to pass legislation and the populist wing of the republican party.
Morning Bid: Congress unswept, crypto a mess
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Incumbent Democrats enjoyed a stronger-than-expected showing, with a chance of retaining the Senate, limiting expected losses in the House of Representatives and taking important governors' races. Regardless of the poll results, problems in the crypto world deepened amid fears of widespread contagion and selling following the near collapse of a major exchange on Tuesday. Perhaps partly related to the crypto shakeout, shares in Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped as much as 5% on Tuesday after filings showed owner Elon Musk sold almost $4 billion Tesla shares before his Twitter takeover. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Stocks slip as control of Congress remains unclear
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Stocks dipped, with the Dow sliding nearly 300 points, or 0.9%, in late morning trading. One stock in particular that had been surging in anticipation of a sweeping victory for the GOP got hit hard Wednesday. The market rallied sharply during the past three days following a historic surge for stocks in October. Still, as the midterm dust settles, investors may now shift their attention back to inflation and the economy. “Markets have performed remarkably similar during periods of a Republican or Democratic controlled Congress.”
That would be viewed as a positive by markets, which generally view gridlock in Washington as a good thing and clearly prefer divided government to the current Democrat-controlled Congress. Therefore, there is no declaration yet of victory for either party in the House or Senate. "We think Republicans will have the [House] majority, but it's going to be a very narrow majority," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. "The more you can keep the fight between the House and Senate, that slightly reduces some of the brinksmanship out there." "Sector-focused policy changes would be even more limited under a divided Congress than under Republican control," the Goldman analysts note.
Stock futures are flat Wednesday night as investors await new inflation data and eye election results. Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 11 points, or 0.03%. S&P 500 futures added 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.13%. Instead, key Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada remain tightly contested. It's a key report for the Federal Reserve, which will meet again in mid-December.
New York CNN Business —The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections will set the agenda for the next Congress. But when it comes to the stock market, this election ranks fairly low on the list of things investors should worry about. But stocks have a bigger problem than who takes the House or Senate: The possibility of a recession ahead. Politics have taken a less central role in recent discussions with investors than they have in past election cycles, they added. The bottom line: When it comes to the next big market catalyst, investors should look to the Fed, not Congress.
[1/3] U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Some analysts say that outcome could be positive for bonds and negative for the dollar if it leads to less fiscal stimulus. The euro touched $1.003 in Asia trade, its highest in nearly two weeks, before sliding to trade down a touch straddling the $1 level. The Japanese yen hit a one-week high of 146.35 per dollar. COVID POLICYAnother factor that has weighed on the dollar in recent days was speculation that China might relax aspects of its dynamic zero COVID policy.
NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Investors are turning their focus to Tuesday's midterm elections, which will determine control of the U.S. Congress. Here are some potential market implications from Tuesday's vote:** With a Democrat in the White House, the best market performance has come when Republicans held either the House, Senate or both. The S&P 500 is down 20% this year. Over the past 18 political cycles, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 15% in the year following the midterm vote, according to Oxford Economics. A GOP win could also raise expectations for higher defense spending and more favorable legislation for the fossil fuel industry.
Morning Bid: Markets primed for gridlock
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaGrowing expectations of a split government after the U.S. midterm elections are supporting U.S. shares, while Asian markets stubbornly cling onto hopes that China will relax its strict pandemic curbs. Banking stocks could be in focus in Europe on Tuesday after the European Central Bank's top supervisor Andrea Enria said the ECB is carefully scrutinising euro zone banks' payout plans as the outlook for the 19-nation currency bloc's economy weakens. For global markets, the U.S. midterm elections will be the big event to monitor. And analysts say Republicans could also pick up the one seat they need to win control of the Senate. Asian shares ticked higher on Tuesday, encouraged by gains on Wall Street and hopes of China's eventual economic reopening.
Dollar catches footing ahead of U.S. midterms
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/3] U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationSINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied during Asia trade on Tuesday after some of the momentum ebbed out of bets on China's reopening, and as traders looked ahead to U.S. midterm elections. Some analysts say that outcome could be positive for bonds and negative for the dollar if it leads to less fiscal stimulus. Sterling , which surged on Monday, was 0.2% weaker at $1.1490, with focus there on fiscal update expected on Nov. 17. The Japanese yen hit a one-week high of 146.35 per dollar.
HONG KONG, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Tuesday as U.S. stocks increased overnight before midterm elections and investors clung on to hopes that China would eventually relax its strict pandemic curbs even after the government reaffirmed its commitment to the zero-COVID policy. Wall Street ended sharply higher Monday as investors focused on Tuesday's midterm elections that will determine control of Congress, while shares of Meta Platforms jumped on a report of job cuts at the Facebook parent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) and China's benchmark CSI300 Index (.CSI300) were up 0.3% and 0.14%, respectively. Investors are hoping China will gradually ease its zero-COVID policy and reopen to the world, even after health officials reiterated their commitment to the policy on Saturday at a press conference. Analysts said U.S. mid-term elections on Tuesday could impact markets.
China reopening hopes keep dollar on guard
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. It was firm at 7.2200 per dollar in offshore trade on Tuesday . The euro , linked via German exports to China's economy, regained parity on the dollar overnight and hovered at $1.0026. The New Zealand dollar climbed 0.2% to touch a seven-week high of $0.5951 in early Asia trade. But incremental adjustments have been enough to keep traders' hopes alive.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 27, 2022 in New York City. Stocks continued their upward gains Thursday with the Dow rising nearly 400 points following a new GDP report that beat expectations. Stock futures were little changed on Tuesday evening as polls began to close in the United States midterm elections. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up just 2 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher by 0.2%.
Whether or not this means Democrats hold onto their majority or Republicans claim victory in today's elections is still an open question. Early voters cast their ballots in Atlanta, Georgia in the 2018 midterm elections in October. If Republicans gain seats in today's midterm elections, the thinking is that Democrats would have a harder time passing aggressive fiscal spending plans. What's your view on how a Democrat or Republican victory in today's midterm elections impacts the stock market? Goldman Sachs named which stocks to buy now that can help you capitalize on gains during Tuesday's midterm elections.
US stocks rose on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to midterm election results. If Republicans gain a majority in Congress, it could create political gridlock, sparking a new rally in stocks, analysts say. Wall Street has been eyeing possible political gridlock if the GOP takes over Congress, which could spark a new rally amid this year's bear market, analysts say. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said a Republican majority could cause the stock market to enter its "best-performing environment," adding that it was possible stocks already bottomed out in October. The total value of the global crypto sector dropped 12%, according to data from CoinMarketCap, with Bitcoin tumbling 13%.
China reopening hopes keep U.S. dollar on guard
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
It was firm at 7.2200 per dollar in offshore trade on Tuesday. The euro , linked via German exports to China's economy, regained parity on the dollar overnight and hovered at $1.0026. The New Zealand dollar climbed 0.2% to touch a seven-week high of $0.5951 in early Asia trade. But incremental adjustments have been enough to keep traders' hopes alive. "This idea that maybe in 2023, we'll see a gradual reopening in China means that growth prospects in China should improve significantly, against a backdrop where most expect the U.S. economy to start slowing down."
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on November 02, 2022 in New York City. To be sure, markets and investors care about elections – just not as much as many think. Still, it's interesting that stocks have typically done well in the aftermath of midterm elections. Clarity mattersTo be sure, businesses and investors have policy preferences, with most preferring lower taxes and fewer regulations. Gridlock is goodOne argument for why stock gains could be more than just transitory is that this election is unlikely to produce a unified government.
Asian stocks mixed as caution reigns ahead of U.S. midterms
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) narrowed gains to rise 0.12% at 0517 GMT. "The thing to watch ... will be the U.S. midterms today and the CPI data tomorrow," said Redmond Wong, Saxo Markets' market strategist for Greater China, in a note on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (.N225) gained as much as 1.44%, hitting an eight-week high, as investors scooped up chips and other technology stocks. Analysts said U.S. mid-term elections on Tuesday could impact markets. Brent crude fell 0.32% to $97.61 a barrel by 0526 GMT, while U.S. crude fell 0.38% to $91.44 a barrel.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'Halftime Report' investment committee assesses the gridlock rallyJason Snipe, Shannon Saccocia, Josh Brown and Stephanie Link join 'Halftime Report' to discuss mixed market signals, the midterm rally and tips for strategic investment positions.
There will be things about gridlock the market doesn't like," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Meanwhile, under a Republican president, the stock market on average gains 4.9% when Democrats control Congress, and the market gains 7.3% with a split Congress. Strategas Research says the stock market is signaling that Republicans may sweep the election . There are clear stock market winners from a Republican victory, at least in the House. Laperriere, in a note, wrote that tech, small cap and financial firms are most vulnerable to higher taxes and tougher regulations, and they could benefit from a Republican Congress.
The stock market could be poised for big upside ahead if Republicans win Congress in today's midterm election. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress," Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress. Under a Democratic president, the S&P 500 saw average annual returns of 16.2% when Republicans controlled both chambers on Congress. Regardless of Tuesday's election results, the stock market has plenty of more favorable seasonals going for it into year-end, according to Detrick.
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