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☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

☆ Stock futures are slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%. "Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality," he said. Investors will watch Thursday for more earnings reports, including releases before the bell from Alaska Air and AT&T . Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales.

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a one-month high against Japan's yen on Monday as traders eyed up another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan stuck to its easy money policies. Expectations of higher interest rates relative to global peers tend to boost a currency by making investments there look more attractive, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, pricing in derivatives markets shows traders think there's a roughly 84% chance the Fed will hike rates again by 25 basis points in May, up from around 69% last week . It hit a one-year high of $1.108 on Friday, with traders expecting further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank even as the Fed nears a pause. Foley expects one more 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed in May before it holds rates steady for the rest of the year.

☆ Dollar bounces as expectations of Fed rate hike climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March, so-called core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, slipped just 0.3% last month, data released on Friday showed. So I think that will increase (expectations) for the Fed to continue raising interest rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, stood at 4.1161%, after hitting a roughly two-week top of 4.137% on Friday. Some hawkish Fed speak also aided the higher interest rate expectations, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting that the Fed could hike another 25 bps next month. The offshore yuan fell roughly 0.1% to 6.8786 per dollar.

☆ Gold off one-year highs as investors weigh rate hike prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold prices biased for a grind higher - analystsMarkets pricing in Fed 25-bps rate hike in MayU.S. dollar up 0.1%April 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher on Monday but were off one-year highs reached late last week as mixed economic data prompted investors to reassess the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory and boosted the dollar. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,004.74 per ounce, as of 0353 GMT. The dollar index was 0.1% higher, making bullion expensive for overseas buyers. Other data showed households expected inflation to rise over the next 12 months. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in a 80.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike in May.

☆ Treasury yields mixed as investors weigh economic outlook, await bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for the U.S. economy after last week's economic data suggested inflation could be easing and as bank earnings season continues. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was down by less than a basis point to 3.5166%. The 2-year Treasury yield remained above 4% and was trading at 4.1139% after rising by over one basis point. The 2-year Treasury yield breached the key 4% level on Friday even though data published throughout the week indicated that inflationary pressures could be easing. The central bank had previously hinted that if data suggested a cooling of the economy, rate increases may be halted shortly.

☆ Dollar rebounds on higher expectations for Fed hike in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar bounced from a one-year low on Monday as resilience in core U.S. retail sales, a rise in short-term inflation expectations and impressive Wall Street bank earnings raised market expectations for an interest rate hike in May. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% to 101.82, standing some distance away from Friday's one-year low of 100.78. So I think that will increase (expectations) for the Fed to continue raising interest rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. Short-term inflation expectations have also increased, with the University of Michigan's preliminary April reading showing that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 3.6% in March. Some hawkish Fed speak also aided the higher interest rate expectations, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting that the Fed could hike another 25 bps next month.

☆ Dollar, yields gain as likelihood of Fed rate hike rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Gold pulled back from near record highs as the dollar bounced and Fed Governor Christopher Waller added weight to the prospect of another rate hike, saying the central bank's lack of progress on slowing inflation meant rates needed to move higher. While the economic data suggests the U.S. economy is slowing and next month's expected rate hike may be its last, how long rates stay at the highest since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007 is unclear. "The Fed is going to stay higher than it's forecast. The 10-year German bund's yield rose to 2.433%, helping the benchmark post its biggest weekly rise since late September. U.S. crude settled up 36 cents at $82.52 a barrel, while Brent rose 22 cents to settle at $86.31.

☆ Dollar, yields gain as expectations of Fed rate hike increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Retail sales fell 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 12 basis points to 4.097%, while on benchmark 10-year notes they rose 6.4 basis points to 3.515%. "The first quarter is going to be better than lowered expectations, which is good, but the guidance at best will be uncertain," Conger said. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters that one more quarter percentage point interest rate hike could allow the Fed to end its tightening cycle.

☆ Fed Official Backs Higher Interest Rates as Banking Stresses Fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Christopher Waller at a previous event in New York; the Fed official says slow progress in bringing down inflation suggests ‘monetary policy will need to remain tight for a substantial period of time.’A Federal Reserve official said he was prepared to approve another interest-rate increase because recent banking-system stresses haven’t produced a significant pullback in lending while high inflation remains supported by strong growth. “Monetary policy needs to be tightened further,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech Friday in San Antonio. “I would welcome signs of moderating demand, but until they appear and I see inflation moving meaningfully and persistently down toward our 2% target, I believe there is still more work to do.”

☆ Fed seen set to raise rates in May, traders bet
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. short-term interest rate futures now reflect the view that a rate hike in May is more than four times as likely as no move, firmer than the chance seen before Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks. The current target range is 4.75%-5.00%, up from near zero last March. "If you had told me that we would raise the fed funds rate 500 basis points in one year and nothing appears to be happening that would just be shocking," Waller said in San Antonio, Texas. Traders also trimmed bets the Fed will reduce interest rates later in the year, though they still expect the Fed's policy rate to end the year lower than it is now. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

April 14 (Reuters) - Despite a year of aggressive rate increases U.S. central bankers "haven't made much progress" in returning inflation to their 2% target and need to move interest rates higher still, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday. Important measures of underlying inflation have "basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement," Waller said in remarks that continue the Fed's steady discounting of the immediate economic risks posed by recent bank failures. So far, Waller said, he sees both the economy and inflation remaining stronger than he expected. "Economic output and employment are continuing to grow at a solid pace while inflation remains much too high," Waller said, noting that investors should not expect rates to fall any time soon. "Monetary policy will need to remain tight for a substantial period of time, and longer than markets anticipate," he said.

BlackRock Inc's (BLK.N) quarterly profit also beat analysts' estimates as investors continued to pour money in the world's largest asset manager's various funds. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) has lagged the broader S&P 500 (.SPX) this year with a 13% decline, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) has already lost 20% in its worst performance since 2009. Bank stocks lag S&P 500 this yearThe S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI) closed at almost two-month highs on Thursday as economic data showed cooling inflation and a loosening labor market, fueling optimism that the Fed could be nearing the end of its aggressive interest rate-hike cycle. Among other big-ticket earnings, healthcare conglomerate UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.N) beat estimates for quarterly profit and raised its annual forecast, pushing its shares up 0.7%. ET, Dow e-minis were down 9 points, or 0.03%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 68.75 points, or 0.52%.

☆ Morning Bid: Singapore signals a peak for policy tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Singapore's central bank sprang the surprise of the Asian day by halting its tightening cycle when markets had expected a sixth straight round of restraint. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said there was enough currency appreciation - controlling the SGD is its primary policy tool - already in the pipeline to ensure inflation slowed sharply as the year progressed. It also sounded more downbeat on the economic outlook as GDP growth missed forecasts with a rise of just 0.1%. It made a five-month top on the yen, a 10-month peak on the Singapore dollar and a 17-month high on the Australian dollar.

The retail sales data provided at least a hint that a pandemic-era spending boom may be nearing an end, though some economists argued that the historically low unemployment rate and rising wages make a sharp drop in consumption unlikely. In separate comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd seen little evidence yet that the economy was under stress, little progress on inflation, and no reason to call off further rate increases. The current inflation rate is more than twice that target, and progress on getting it to move in that direction has been slow. The data showed households expected inflation to accelerate significantly in the year ahead, reversing months of progress towards them viewing inflation as a receding phenomenon. There won't be much more topline economic data before the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

☆ Marketmind: Banks to test soft landing thesis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have surged this week on renewed hopes of disinflation, peak interest rates and a soft economic landing - and earnings from Wall Street's biggest banks now test the thesis. Markets will be most focussed on bank guidance on how much the March bank failure will crimp lending going forward. Next month's expected interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve is now expected to be the last and futures see up to 70 basis points of cuts from that point to year-end. And with China's booming trade numbers for last month also suggesting the world economy at large will comfortably skirt recession this year, "soft landing" hopes are back in vogue. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says mild U.S. recession feasible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession is certainly feasible as the Federal Reserve's steep rate-hikes over the past year filters fully through the economy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday, as he again urged the central bank to be prudent on policy. "There is no way you can look at current conditions around the world and in the US and not think that some mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility," Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. He was responding to a question about a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession later this year. "The data show that and we've raised rates almost 500 basis points in a year," he added. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview, also on Friday, the Fed could "hit the mark and hold" with one more rate hike.

The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) surged 3.3% to a one-month high, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) rose 0.8%. Bank stocks lag S&P 500 this yearDampening the mood, however, data showed retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, raising fears of an economic slowdown. "The retail sales are kind of a disappointment," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. Following Friday's retail sales data, traders stuck to bets the U.S. central bank will raise rates by another 25 basis points in May. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 14 new highs and 25 new lows.

☆ Fed's Waller: US inflation can drop without much harm to job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SAN FRANCISCO, March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday said recent data is consistent with the notion that the U.S. central bank may be able to drive down inflation without serious harm to the labor market. If people really have begun to believe that prices are going to just keep on rising, then defeating high inflation could require dramatic actions by the Fed to puncture those expectations, Waller said in remarks prepared for an academic conference at the San Francisco Fed. Dramatic Fed rate hikes could slow the economy suddenly and lead to large job losses. "Recent data are consistent with this story." Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stock futures are flat Thursday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 29, 2023. U.S. stock futures were flat on Thursday night. S&P 500 futures rose 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell by less than 0.01%. "The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance," Krosby continued. "Economic concerns enveloping recession fears haven't vanished as the yield curve still represents a counter to the market's climb higher," Krosby added.

☆ First came bank failures. Now comes the House hearing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Federal regulators are being called to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. What lawmakers are saying: Elected officials want a review of what happened at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this month, as well as stricter regulations to prevent it from happening again. Regulators on March 12, just days after SVB collapsed, announced a guarantee of all deposits at the bank and Signature Bank. What to expect: It’s unclear what will come of the hearings on SVB and Signature Bank. Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee’s hearing on the banking crisis continues for a second day.

☆ Stocks week ahead: It's hell week on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The unflinching resilience of the US labor market is one of — if not the — greatest source of tension in today’s economy. That means the Fed’s already painful rate hikes are likely to continue until the job market simmers. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from nearly zero to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% to cool the economy. The labor market is stronger than ever: The US added a shocking 517,000 jobs in January and knocked unemployment down to its lowest level since 1969. If the labor market remains strong, more Fed-induced pain lies ahead.

☆ More rate hikes are needed, says Fed’s Mary Daly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve policymakers will need to raise interest rates higher and keep them there longer to tackle the higher prices caused by sticky inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Saturday. Daly does not currently vote on Fed policy decisions but is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and participates in policy meetings. Her speech followed a week of similar warnings from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said Wednesday that he believes the Fed needs to raise its policy rate by half a percentage point at the next meeting. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that painful interest rates could go higher than expected, citing a slew of recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

☆ A porn 'Zoom-bomber' hijacked an online conference with a Federal Reserve governor
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Jyoti Mann | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A virtual meeting with a Federal Reserve governor was canceled after being "Zoom-bombed", per Reuters. The intruder showed porn images on the call, which had more than 200 participants. The hacker displayed the images a few minutes before the conference was due to start. In another incident in 2020, trolls joined Alcoholics Anonymous meetings and told participants in recovery that "alcohol is soooo good." The rise of Zoom meetings and subsequent Zoom-bombing during the pandemic led the company to place a 90-day freeze on new features in April 2020 while it focused on bolstering the platform's security.

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation 'blip' or brave new world?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Federal Reserve officials wrestled on Thursday with whether recent data showing inflation, jobs and spending all hotter than expected was a flash in the pan. "It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," said Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged a "slow and steady" course of policy response. The resilience of stock markets more generally to the week's bond market quake is notable and slightly puzzling - with implied volatility in bonds (.MOVE) climbing sharply while stock market equivalents (.VIX) subside. Two-year U.S. inflation expectations in the Treasury market climbed to 3% from 2% since early last month.

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