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☆ G7 says “de-risking”, China hears “containment”
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Irked by the G7 statements, Xi’s government has already called Japan’s ambassador on the carpet. To be sure, China, with a $90 billion monthly trade surplus hovering near record highs, cannot easily retaliate against its opponents. But it is not in Xi’s, or Chinese companies’, interests to sit back and let the G7 “de-risk”, and that makes the euphemism more threatening than it sounds. China firmly opposes the G7 joint statement and has complained to summit organiser Japan, the Chinese foreign ministry said on the same day. The ministry said that the G7, disregarding China's concerns, had attacked it and interfered in its internal affairs, including Taiwan.

☆ As G-7 Summit kicks off in Hiroshima, China and Russia are on everyone’s minds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A man rides his bicycle past a "G7 Hiroshima" flower sign at the Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima, ahead of the G7 Leaders' Summit, on May 17, 2023. (Photo by Philip FONG / AFP) (Photo by PHILIP FONG/AFP via Getty Images) Philip Fong | Afp | Getty ImagesThe annual Group of 7 summit officially kicks off on Friday in Hiroshima, Japan. A sign of G7 Hiroshima Summit is pictured in Hiroshima, ahead of the G7 Leaders' Summit, on May 16, 2023. G-7 finance leaders and central bankers finalized a three-day meeting in Niigata last week. "The U.S. will have a package of sanctions associated with the G-7 statement that will center on this enforcement issue," he told reporters.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling drama aside, world economy looks shaky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Naomi RovnickRisk appetite has perked up on global markets thanks to optimism that U.S. Democrats and Republicans are nearing a deal to raise the debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. But while a debt ceiling reprieve could boost markets in coming days, the backdrop of a lacklustre global economy is unchanged, with its twin engines, China and the United States, sputtering. Citi's China economic surprise index is at its lowest since January (.CESICNY), a further sign that the growth outlook has weakened. The S&P 500 is trading at a rich 18 times forecast earnings, buoyed by the tech mega-stocks that dominate the index. Developments that could affect markets on Thursday:* Economic events: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales, Philly Fed business index.

☆ Temu accused of data risks after sister app was suspended for malware
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Sheila Chiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Stefani Reynolds | Afp | Getty ImagesThe U.S. has accused discount shopping site Temu of possible data risks after its Chinese sister app was pulled from Google's app store over "malware" — but analysts say they're not that worried. Google called it an "identified malicious app" and urged users to uninstall the Pinduoduo app, but the Chinese online retailer denied those claims. Kevin Reed chief information security officer, Acronis"There should be no need for biometric data to be stored on an e-commerce website or app. Data risksIn a report on Chinese "fast fashion" platforms published in April, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission accused Temu and Shein of posing possible data risks. Shein and Temu "primarily rely on U.S. consumers downloading and using Chinese apps to curate and deliver products," said the report.

The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.1% year-on-year, the lowest rate since February 2021, and cooling from the 0.7% annual gain seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Reuters GraphicsPBOC TESTEDOverall inflationary pressures remain low with the core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, up 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month. The statistics bureau attributed the weaker consumer inflation to the base effect. Vegetable prices extended their decline to 13.5% and pork, a major driver of CPI, slowed its price growth to 4.0% from 9.6% in March. "Securing income growth and improving consumer confidence remain key policy priorities for delivering a more sustainable consumption recovery," said Pang.

☆ Consumer prices in China rose 0.1% in April, the slowest rate in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) building in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. Source: BloombergChina's consumer price index rose 0.1% in April year-on-year, the slowest since early 2021. Economists surveyed by Reuters expected to see consumer prices rise 0.4% from a year ago and remain unchanged from the previous month. Inflation in China was led by food and services, according to the National Bureau of Statistics – food prices rose by 0.4% and service prices rose 1% from a year ago. That's a stark contrast to the latest U.S. inflation data overnight which showed consumer prices rose 4.9% in April – easing in the wake of the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by hiking rates 10 consecutive times.

☆ ValueAct loses its temper in 7-Eleven
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, May 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - ValueAct Capital’s chief Mason Morfit prefers to chide undervalued conglomerates behind closed doors. In its latest 151-page presentation, ValueAct took its case directly to shareholders, the second time it has seen fit to do so in its history. That highlights the U.S. fund’s frustration from its two-year long campaign calling for Seven & i to spin off its 7-Eleven convenience stores, among other things. That implies a standalone 7-Eleven could be worth 10 trillion yen, roughly a quarter more than its parent today. He may have a point, and in truth ValueAct has far more experience turning around technology companies than food retailers.

Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted no growth in imports and an 8.0% increase in exports. Other recent data also showed South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's coal imports fell in April from a 15-month high in the prior month, snapping back as demand weakens in Asian giant. Imports of copper - a proxy for global growth - and natural gas were also down in the same period. "The global economy is deteriorating and will weaken China's manufacturing sector," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING.

☆ Yellen says pressures remain on some U.S. regional bank stocks but system sound
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discusses "U.S.-China Economic Relationship" during a forum hosted by the Johns Hopkins University at the Nitze Building in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerWASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that some regional bank stock prices remained under pressure, but deposits had stabilized and regulators stood ready to use the same tools used in recent bank rescues if more contagion fears arose. Yellen told CNBC in a live interview that some of the selling of bank shares was due to earnings strain, but added that the "bar is pretty high" for imposing any controls on short selling of bank stocks. But short selling more broadly, the bar is pretty high to put controls on," Yellen said. Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China’s shrinking imports, slower exports growth darken economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted no growth in imports and an 8.0% increase in exports. Other recent data also showed South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China’s imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China’s coal imports fell in April from a 15-month high in the prior month, snapping back as demand weakens in Asian giant. Imports of copper, a proxy for global growth, and natural gas were also down in the same period. “The global economy is deteriorating and will weaken China’s manufacturing sector,” said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING.

BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - China's exports were expected to have risen again in April, albeit at a less robust pace than a month earlier, a Reuters poll showed, supported by unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID disruptions though slowing global growth is darkening the outlook. With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID disruptions. South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.

☆ Beijing expects foreigners to trust, not verify
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In recent months, Chinese investigators have detained employees of U.S. due-diligence firm Mintz Group, visited consultancy Bain & Company and suspended auditor Deloitte’s Beijing operations for three months. Security watchdogs have restricted overseas access to financial data providers like Wind Information, as well as academic database China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Local banks loaned 3.9 trillion yuan ($560 billion) in March alone while corporations issued 328 billion yuan of bonds. Besides Wind, other Chinese data providers including company databases Qichacha and TianYanCha have stopped opening to offshore users, according to three of the sources. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ China's skidding factory sector taps brakes on economic recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector, a private survey showed on Thursday, imperilling the broader economic outlook for the second quarter. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March. The latest PMIs may lower expectations for the economy in the second quarter, said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. “But to what extent the economic recovery momentum will weaken, the market is not sure,” Zhou said. “The manufacturing sector will be under pressure in the second quarter, and won’t get any relief at least until June.”

☆ China investment consensus cracks as politics fuel fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

It is unlikely to be resolved quickly even if the markets keep rallying and China economy keeps global growth ticking. Data paints a murky picture, but supports brokers' analysis that the bid from long-only money managers is absent. Allocation analysis from data firm EPFR shows a broad downtrend, especially to U.S.-domiciled China funds. EPFR figures show allocation to China funds outside the U.S. has increased for two years and mainland markets' recent performance has also been encouraging. "Our reservations about China's long-term investment prospects are based on our outlook for returns to capital."

☆ Hong Kong’s dollar stress gets more fundamental
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, April 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s currency peg to the greenback is stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the past 12 months, the de-facto central bank has stepped in to buy Hong Kong dollars from the market roughly 40 times. Some foreign financiers, including Pershing Square boss Bill Ackman, argue Hong Kong’s financial system can’t sustain the peg and question its rationale. But in the long run, demand for Hong Kong dollars depends on confidence in its economic strategy. Hong Kong’s peg is durable enough for now, but its future is in doubt nevertheless.

☆ Goldman thinks the trade right now is on China's economy and gives 2 U.S. stocks to play it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The rebound in China's economy creates an opportunity for U.S. equity investors who can capture that strength by picking mining stocks, according to Goldman Sachs. "We recommend investors own mining stocks, which are levered to China growth through rising metals prices." Metals and mining stocks typically mirror the performance of the index, Goldman said. The firm said mining stocks in general are relatively cheap right now, trading at a 20% discount to the S & P 500. The SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF tracks the S & P Metals and Mining Select Industry Index, while the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF follows select global metals and mining producers, excluding gold and silver.

Hong Kong/New York CNN —Temu and Shein are taking off in the United States, topping app stores and creating a frenzy with consumers. Shein was started in China, while Temu was launched by a Chinese company that now bills itself as a multinational firm. Both firms have enjoyed major success in the United States, noted Nicholas Kaufman, a policy analyst for the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Topping the chartsTemu and Shein have taken the world’s largest retail market — the United States — by storm. It has quickly become the most downloaded app in the United States, and continues to expand its user base.

☆ Analysis: China's 'atypical' deflation cycle gives central bank a headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China GDP"China is entering an 'atypical' deflation cycle, which means deflation amid economic recovery," said Jinyue Dong, senior economist at BBVA research. China's new bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter. The central bank cut lenders' reserve requirements ratio (RRR) for the first time this year in March. But analysts say that is largely due to last year's low base caused by COVID-19 curbs that hit consumers the hardest, rather than underlying household demand. Reuters GraphicsNew household loans, mainly mortgages and consumer loans, accounted for 16% of total new loans in the first quarter, despite a jump in mortgages in March, while corporate loans made up for the rest.

In February, over 150,000 Chinese tourists travelled to Thailand, the latest data from the Thai Ministry of Tourism show - a three year high but still 85% below February 2019 levels. Chinese tourists used to make up 10% of European arrivals from outside the continent. Flights to Europe are up to 80% more expensive than before the pandemic, according to ForwardKeys, a travel data firm. Chinese tourists making a comeback is crucial for regional economies. Reuters GraphicsPre-pandemic, China was Australia's top source of tourists, but numbers following Beijing's reopening of borders have only trickled back.

☆ JPMorgan, Citi raise full-year forecasts for China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Steven Han | Moment | Getty ImagesAnalysts at JPMorgan and Citi raised their full-year forecasts for China's economy after it delivered an impressive first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.5% on Tuesday. Citi economists noted that while services outperformed in the consumption-driven growth for the first quarter, they remain cautious on their forecasts. "The release of pent-up demand during Covid and holiday helped, but we remain cautious on its outlook without big stimulus in sight and the discounts intensifying," Citi economists wrote. With economy stabilization playing out, structural reform could be the next theme to watch," Citi economists wrote. "Risks facing our full-year GDP forecast of 5.7%Y is now skewed to the upside given a strong entry," Morgan Stanley economists led by Zhipeng Cai wrote.

☆ China’s GDP beat looks a tad too reassuring
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The risk is the shopping recovery gets bifurcated between luxury purchases and basic needs, leaving out big-ticket middle-class items. Meanwhile, Chinese savers added another 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to their household deposits in the first quarter, reinforcing concerns that they will keep hoarding instead of splurging. Bank loans hit an all-time high of 10.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, yet that did not appear to translate into private investment in fixed assets, which is barely growing. In a speech in March, Cai Fang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, suggested transferring 4 trillion yuan directly to households to compensate for weak income growth. If the first quarter’s print turns out to be misleadingly rosy, China’s reopening boom could quiet down quickly.

☆ China's economy grew 4.5% in the first quarter, the fastest pace in a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The economy grew 3% in 2022, less than Beijing's official target of around 5.5% set in March last year. For 2023, the government last month set a modest growth target of "around 5%." On pace to exceed targetGoldman Sachs said China's first-quarter growth of 4.5% supports the firm's full-year outlook for the economy to grow 6%. "Today's data are in line with our full-year bullish view for China growth," Goldman Sachs' chief China economist Hui Shan told CNBC. We keep the full-year GDP forecast at 5% as external demand should be a concern for the year," Pang wrote.

☆ Yellen to lay out U.S. economic priorities on China in Thursday speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Yellen, who said last week she still hopes to visit Beijing to meet with her new Chinese economic counterparts, will deliver remarks at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, the Treasury said in a statement. Yellen's speech will detail the Biden administration's economic priorities on China, including securing U.S. national security interests, fostering "healthy" competition and cooperating, where possible, on global issues such as climate change, debt relief and macroeconomic stability. Yellen also is expected to highlight U.S. economic strength. A Treasury official said the speech comes at an opportune time just after Yellen also spoke last week with counterparts from G7 democracies, Australia and New Zealand. Another audience for the remarks is China's new economic leadership team led by Liu's replacement, Vice Premier He Lifeng.

☆ Asia stocks on guard for earnings, China economy surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

EYES ON EARNINGS OUTLOOKS&P 500 futures inched up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures were flat as investors awaited a slew of earnings reports led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N). Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-earlier period, though BofA analyst Savita Subramanian is more concerned about the outlook for 2023. "Our 2023 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 remains $200, still 9% below consensus estimates." In bond markets, the shift in Fed expectations pushed U.S. two-year yields up to 4.12%, having risen 12 basis points last week. Futures have 37 basis points of ECB tightening priced for the May meeting and 82 basis points by October.

☆ Asia stocks brace for updates on earnings, China economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

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