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☆ U.S. dollar gains as risk appetite wanes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.48% to 101.84, having dropped more than 4% since March 8. A weak consumer confidence report and a decline in Federal Reserve manufacturing data further added to the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low in April, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 — the lowest since July 2022 - from a revised 104.0 in March. The yen fell 0.39% to 133.70 per dollar.

☆ Jim Cramer: This is what I learned from the real first week of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"Simply stated we're in a freight recession." That line, uttered last Monday by Shelley Simpson, president of J.B. Hunt (JBHT), the fourth-largest trucking company in the United States, was the most memorable of the real first week of earnings season. If so, it would know that we're dealing with much more than a freight recession. It's not enough to offset the immense deflationary pressure emanating from the regional banks and the freight recession described by J.B. Hunt. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

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☆ US existing home sales resume downward trend in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Last month's sales likely reflected some contracts signed in February, when mortgage rates started rising again after mostly decreasing in January. "Consumers appear to be very sensitive to changes in mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist. "The week-to-week changes in mortgage rates are having a big impact." Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, tumbled 22.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. A survey on Monday showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index climbed to a seven-month high in April.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ Sweden's economic gloom goes from bad to worse as government predicts steeper GDP contraction
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

JONATHAN NACKSTRAND / Contributor / Getty ImagesThe Swedish government is now predicting a deeper than expected GDP contraction in 2023, according to data released Monday, worsening an already gloomy outlook for the country's economy. Sweden's Ministry of Finance estimated in December that GDP would shrink by 0.7%, but it now predicts a 1% downturn as it reassesses the "challenging economic environment." "We face major challenges, but we will get through them together," Sweden's Minister for Finance, Elisabeth Svantesson, said in a press release Monday. The latest CPI data shows inflation is finally starting to slow, but wages are limping behind and house prices are facing a serious downturn. Eroding real wagesMost European countries are experiencing sky-high inflation, leaving real wages lagging behind.

☆ US homebuilder sentiment improves further; NY state manufacturing rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.

☆ How the Fed is reshaping the labor market and why the nature of work is shifting, according to LinkedIn’s principal economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today's newsletter may not include a job offer, but it will give you a better grasp of what to look for in this still-hot labor market. I'm excited to share this week's conversation with one of the leading experts on jobs and hiring trends. How is that showing up in the labor market? What about the role of AI in the labor market? What do you think of Berger's insights on the labor market?

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Recession fears resurface
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets rose after the CPI was released — why wouldn't they? Then minutes from the FOMC's meeting came out and changed investors' day. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Fed minutes reignite recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said. "It's improving and the economy is cooling, but it's still far from tepid," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation. What drove inflation in March 2023Housing was a "notable" inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS. The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. "It signals the food inflation fever has been broken," Zandi said.

☆ The Fed warned of a looming credit crunch. Americans say it’s already arrived.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

We just saw a more extreme distribution play out in the stock market, too. Just 20 names drove 90% of the gains in the S&P 500 over the first three months of the year. The Fed has been warning of tightening credit conditions since last month's handful of bank failures, but policymakers spoke as if it were some future event. Remember, a so-called credit crunch means lenders raise the bar for borrowers, and people have to meet stricter parameters to get a loan. "The credit crunch has started," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in response to the report.

☆ Analysis: Heroes or villains: Short sellers' role in the U.S. bank crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

How much short sellers contributed to the downward spiral reprises the debate about whether so-called shorts are market watchdogs or opportunistic investors who profit from others’ misery. In the case of the banking crisis, a review of data and interviews with short sellers and their critics show, the answer may be both. Some high profile short sellers were later celebrated as making prophetic calls about the U.S. housing market. Even so, interviews and public postings show at least some short sellers had placed bets against regional banks well before the crisis hit. SHORT POSITIONSSuch early short sellers, however, were in the small minority.

☆ A hidden time bomb? A 'Big Short' investor sees financial disaster brewing in housing markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Josh Edelson | Afp | Getty ImagesMore than a decade after a U.S. mortgage meltdown threatened to destroy the international financial system, a "Big Short" investor once again sees financial disaster brewing in the real estate market. Now, Burt believes an overlooked climate risk could see history repeating itself. U.S. housing market overvalued? watch now"The biggest reason why it matters from our perspective is that climate risk isn't being priced into the housing market," Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street Foundation, told CNBC. 'A humanitarian crisis'Far from a domestic issue, Burt stressed the climate risks associated with the U.S. housing market posed a major problem for countries worldwide.

☆ The Nasdaq 100 just entered a fresh bull market - and a top analyst says tech names look like the new safety trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Those rate forecasts have bolstered tech names, and mega-caps like Apple and Microsoft have pulled the Nasdaq higher. "While it sounds like Twilight Zone comment to many investors, tech stocks have become the new safety trade with Big Tech names a major beneficiary of this dynamic," Ives, a managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush, wrote in a note. "And these tech stocks have been under owned and still remain in that camp in our opinion." Short sellers generated paper profit of $14 billion betting against bank stocks over the last month. Shorting bank names in March produced a "wide swath of profitable trades that returned +17.2% in less than a month," S3 Partners said.

☆ Do You Speak Real Estate? Take Our Home Buyer’s Quiz.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Debra Kamin | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The process of purchasing a home, particularly for first-time buyers, can be stressful and confusing. And buyers in today’s market may feel the odds are stacked higher against them. There are also more all-cash buyers purchasing homes now than ever before, so even well-qualified buyers with excellent credit are finding it difficult to compete. Along the way, you’ll encounter real estate jargon that can be difficult to understand. The stronger your grasp, the better prepared you’ll be to conquer (or at least navigate) the housing market.

☆ For battered U.S. bank shares, earnings may make or break
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Even so, the S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) is down 16% since March 8, two days before Silicon Valley's collapse, with the failure of Signature Bank and problems at other banks adding to the turmoil. Some say quarterly results could be key to what happens next with bank shares. Among other financials, Jefferies Financial Group (JEF.N) is expected to report quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period. They are forecasting S&P 500 financials (.SPSY) to post year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter of 5.4%, making it among just four sectors whose earnings are expected to climb.

☆ US consumer confidence rises; house price inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 104.2 this month from a reading of 103.4 in February. Housing affordability, which deteriorated as mortgage rates surged in response to the Fed's fight against inflation, is starting to gradually improve as house price gains continue to moderate. Annual house price growth remained strong in the Southeast, with double-digit gains in Miami and Tampa. The region had experienced rapid house price increases in prior years. Goods trade balanceThe Commerce Department also reported that wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in February after falling 0.5% in January.

☆ Some Ukrainians Struggle to Navigate Tight U.S. Housing Market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Alicia A. Caldwell | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Ukrainian refugees fled their war-torn country last year and found safe haven in the homes of Americans, but now some are struggling to navigate the tight housing market without a sponsor’s support. “Everything was wonderful until it wasn’t,” said Svitlana Lazarieva , speaking through a translator, about a strain with her family’s sponsor. Ms. Lazarieva said she and her family left their home near Bakhmut, Ukraine, last June, about four months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The family planned to resettle in suburban Orange County, about an hour south of Los Angeles.

☆ Inclusive Capital's Ubben named to Vistry board as homebuilder looks to leverage recent acquisition
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Kenneth Squire | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

As a pioneering activist ESG investor (AESG), Inclusive seeks long-term shareholder value through active partnership with companies whose core businesses contribute solutions to this pursuit. Their primary focus is on environmental and social value creation, which leads to shareholder value creation. They build communities that are mixed tenure, placing affordable housing among open market homes, retail stores, etc. This model has the benefits of a secular shift to affordable housing and is capex light since they do not have to acquire the land. But, in this case the community benefits align so perfectly with the company growth prospects – topline company growth means more affordable housing.

☆ Mortgage giant Fannie Mae tackles climate risk, but changes to underwriting may take several years
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But the housing market currently doesn't price that climate risk into home values. The mortgage giant's chief climate officer, Tim Judge, says mortgage underwriting does not currently account for climate risk. To help, Judge is hiring climate risk modeling firms, such as First Street Foundation and Jupiter Intelligence, as well as others, to figure out just how to factor climate risk into home values and mortgage underwriting. First Street, for example, looks at climate risk from floods, fire and wind, and brings it down to an individual property level. But Fannie Mae is not yet rejecting any mortgages based solely on climate risk.

The determination is intact," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in remarks after the policy decision. "There is no tradeoff between price stability and financial stability ... we are addressing the price stability issue by raising the interest rate by 50 basis points ... Beyond the rate increase, the Fed will also be debating changes to its policy statement that could prove consequential. In crafting their next policy statement officials will have to decide, for example, whether to continue to anticipate the need for "ongoing increases" in the policy interest rate, or to temper that seemingly open-ended commitment with language that indicates rate hikes could pause at any moment, given the new risks. They will also be issuing new economic and interest rate projections that could add a further dose of caution.

☆ S&P 500 futures are flat following a volatile session on Wall Street: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Wednesday night after investor fears of a widespread banking crisis led to a volatile trading session. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 29 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures were down just 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.14%. During the regular trading session, the Dow at one point fell 725 points before ending the day down by 280.83 points, or 0.87% lower. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged 0.05% higher.

☆ A major inflation report and fallout from Silicon Valley Bank hang over markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

February's consumer inflation report should be a big driver for markets in the week ahead, as investors watch for continued fallout from the shutdown of SVB Financial Group's Silicon Valley Bank. The consumer price index report on Tuesday is the last major inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's March 21 and 22 meeting. Silicon Valley Bank's troubles overshadowed nearly everything else in markets Thursday and Friday, as investors sought safety in the bond market and sold bank stocks. Those odds had been as high as 70% before the Silicon Valley Bank news began to hit the market. Now inflation data is being watched carefully since a very hot number could mean the Fed will become more aggressive.

☆ Luxury home sales plunge 45%, with Miami and the Hamptons hit hardest
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. housing market is taking a hard hit from higher mortgage rates, and luxury home sales are seeing the worst of it. Sales of luxury homes dropped 45% during the three months ended Jan. 31 compared with the same period the year before, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. Redfin defines luxury homes as those estimated to be in the top 5% based on the estimated market value. Miami, which had seen a massive influx of wealthy buyers migrating from the Northeast in the earlier days of the Covid pandemic, saw sales drop nearly 69%. While not all luxury buyers use mortgages, they are affected by the broader economy, and more specifically the stock market.

☆ Some of Wall Street's top commentators fear a recession is at hand as rates set to go higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yesterday on Capitol Hill, Jerome Powell reiterated his warning that the Fed's more than ready to keep jacking up rates if necessary. Inflation hasn't gone away as easily as policymakers want, and Powell thinks that may just warrant a steeper policy path. That's not the most reassuring assessment of the situation as some of the biggest commentators in markets are saying a recession is right around the corner. The exec also broke down how to use the strategy in today's stock market to make extremely cheap bets that garner "through the roof" returns. Fannie Mae's Home Purchasing Sentiment Index dropped this week while mortgage rates moved higher.

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