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☆ Dollar beaten to over two-month low as Fed cut bets take charge
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China

☆ Dollar stumbles to over two-month low as markets eye Fed cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, while the Australian dollar similarly scaled a three-month top against the falling greenback. "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Against the weaker dollar, the euro rose to an over two-month high of $1.0924, ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due later this week. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged roughly 0.5% higher to $0.6546, its strongest level since August, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.52% to $0.60235. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1753 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1745 per dollar.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China

☆ Was Peace Ever Possible?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Moderated Emily Bazelon | A Discussion Moderated Emily Bazelon | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +45 min

This was known as the Oslo peace process, named for the city where the secret talks took place. Micha Bar-Am/Magnum Photos Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir of Israel during the the Middle East peace conference in Madrid, 1991. Margalit: All the Israeli leaders who negotiated for peace, starting with Rabin, were in a weak political position. Dajani: With the First Intifada, and then subsequently Madrid and Oslo, Palestinians suddenly see the possibility of agency. But what’s important to understand is that the notion of peace for Rabin, and for most Israelis, is that peace is a lack of violence from the other side.

Persons: Jordan, Israel, Yasir Arafat, Bernard Frye, Arafat, Larry Towell, Abbas, Micha, Yitzhak Shamir, Jerome Delay, Saddam, Hussein, George H.W, Bush, James A, Baker III, Baker, Shamir, Yitzhak Rabin, Rabin, Shimon Peres, —, Margalit, Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak of, King Hussein of Jordan, Bill Clinton, Gary Hershon, Abu Alaa, “, ” Rabin, ” Arafat, ”, Ashrawi, Yehuda, Efraim, Susan Meiselas, Baruch Goldstein, Patrick Baz, Daoud Mizrahi, Gilles Peress, Goldstein, Matti Steinberg, Netanyahu, Bazelon, Clinton, Shikaki, Manal Jamal, didn’t, Dennis Ross, Omar, Camp David, Ehud Barak, Md, Ralph Alswang, Christopher Anderson, Motasm Amir, Barak didn’t, Barak, David, Dajani, Emily, Arafat —, Ross, Mary, Nobody, Arafat didn’t, Hosni Mubarak, Mubarak, El, there’s, There’s, Robert Malley, Hussein Agha, ” Barak, Sharon, It’s, Yarden Romann, Peter van Agtmael, Khan Younis, Yousef Masoud, Khan, Ahmad Hasaballah, Ziv Koren, they’re, Dan, Avishai, Omar Dajani, Taba, Dana El Kurd, Efraim Inbar, ‘ ‘ Rabin, ’ ’, Daniel Kurtzer, Avishai Margalit, George Kennan, Van, Khalil Shikaki, Limor Yehuda, Emily Bazelon, Nabil Ismail, Pascal, Said, Ulf Andersen, Getty, Menahem Kahana, Abdel, Shafi, Maggie Ohayon, Yigal Amir, Yoav Lemmer, Jack Guez, Olmert, Moshe Milner, Ami, Dani Cardona, Awad Awad, Obama, Ben Gershom Organizations: United Nations, West Bank, Associated, Palestine Liberation Organization, U.S, Soviet Union, Palestinian, Madrid didn’t, Bank, White, Agence France, Presse, Getty Images, Oslo Accord, White House, Reuters, Israel’s Labor Party government, Bazelon, Oslo Palestinian, Getty, West, Shin, Gross, . Security, Camp, Camp David Summit, Labor Party, NPR, American, New York Times, Polaris, Labor, United, McGeorge School of Law, University of the, Israel, Camp David, University of Richmond, Arab Center Washington, Jerusalem Institute for Strategy, Security, Shalem College, Bar, Ilan University, Sadat Center, Strategic Studies, Israel’s National Security, Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Institute for, Princeton, Israel Academy of Sciences, Humanities, Van Leer Jerusalem Institute, Palestinian Center, Policy, Research, Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University, Gaza, Hebrew University, Haifa University, Human, The New York Times Magazine, Mount Locations: Israel, Jordan, Gaza, Egypt, Jerusalem, Zion, Munich, Tunisia, Oslo, American, Oslo Gaza, Palestine, Madrid, Kuwait, United States, Soviet, Lebanon, Syria, Jordanian, America, Washington, U.S, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, U.N, Independence, Palestinian, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Rafah, Hebron, Ibrahimi, West Bank, Judea, Samaria, Yehuda, Camp David, Jenin, Haram, Al Aqsa, Khan, Kfar Aza, Khan Younis, Ahmad, Old, Ireland, Bosnia, Tel Aviv, Iran, Athens, El, Camp, Israeli, Van Leer, Ramallah

☆ Bank of Japan needs to walk away from ultra-loose monetary policy to support yen, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAmong major central banks, the Bank of Japan has been most notorious for its ultra-loose monetary policy, but that must come to an end soon to support the country's currency, according to Deutsche Bank. "For the yen to do something meaningfully better you really need more of a dovish pivot in every other central bank, or the Bank of Japan really has to start walking away from quantitative easing and negative rates," Tim Baker G10 FX strategist at Deutsche Bank told CNBC's Street Signs Asia. watch nowQuantitative easing is when a central bank tries to increase the liquidity in its financial system by buying long-term government bonds from the country's largest banks. The BOJ has used various quantitative easing tools to reflate the economy in the last three decades. The central bank has been cautious in unwinding its long-held ultra-easy monetary policy, wary of any premature moves that could potentially derail recent nascent improvements in the economy.

Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Tim Baker, CNBC's, Baker Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Fed, ECB Locations: Hakone, Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ The stock market incorrectly priced in dovish Fed pivots 6 times in the last few years. Will this 7th time be any different?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But the market wrongly priced in a looser stance at least six times in the last few years, Deutsche Bank wrote. The S&P 500 advanced 3.6% that month as bond yields fell. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 jumped 6.6% in the week ending May 27, its strongest weekly performance of 2022. The S&P 500 surged 5.7% over October 3-4, marking the biggest two-day rally since April 2020. Yields on 2-year Treasurys tumbled, and the S&P 500 jumped 7% from a low in the immediate aftermath of SVB's collapse to the end of the March.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Service, Fed, Bank Locations: Ukraine

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped further to a two-month low on Friday and was last at 4.4082%. Most megacap stocks edged higher in premarket trading, with Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) up 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. On the economic data front, markets will monitor the housing starts data for October, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 93 points, or 0.27%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 6.5 points, or 0.04%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russell, Mohit Kumar, Austan Goolsbee, Rick Wilmer, Shristi Achar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Materials, Jefferies, Chicago Fed, Dow e, Old Navy, ChargePoint Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Bengaluru

☆ Treasury yields slip further amid hopes of a 'dovish pivot' by the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Katrina Bishop | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.82%, 2 basis points lower. U.S. Treasury yields continued to slip Friday as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign could finally be over. The producer price index, released Wednesday, showed a 0.5% decline in October — whereas economists had expected a slight increase. Earlier this week, October's consumer price index reading also came in lower than forecast. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, fell to a two-year low of 4% on an annual basis.

Persons: Henry Allen Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Deutsche Locations: U.S, U.S . Federal

☆ Wall Street turns to Nvidia earnings in the week ahead as stocks try to keep their November momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.

Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan

☆ The Fed is probably done hiking rates. Cuts are still far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve likely won’t raise interest rates again during its current tightening cycle, thanks to a cooldown in inflation. Interest rates are at a 22-year high after the Fed last March began its punishing pace of hikes in a bid to tame wayward inflation. Traders are now virtually certain that the Fed will hold rates steady at its December policy meeting and won’t hike again this cycle, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Of course, one month’s data doth not a trend make. Traders are anticipating rate cuts won’t start before next March, and see May as more likely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: ”, Jeffrey Roach, Price, Sharp, Jerome Powell, Yung, Yu Ma, Joseph Brusuelas, Sephora, Parija Kavilanz, Read, Rishi Sunak, Hanna Ziady, “, ” Sunak, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, “, LPL, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Research, BMO Wealth Management, Traders, Investors, RSM US, CNN, National Statistics Locations: New York

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Despite cool inflation, don’t expect rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Valerie Plesch| Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wholesale prices in October, as measured by the producer price index, fell 0.5% for the month against the expected 0.1% increase. And that, to put it mildly, "may be at least a tad optimistic," Cox wrote. Expectations of a rate cut forced down Treasury yields Tuesday (though they rose again yesterday).

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Jeff Cox, Cox, Quincy Krosby, Henry Allen, — Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Major, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury, LPL, Deutsche Bank, Fed Locations: Washington , DC, Major U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Rate cuts might not be in the cards despite cooling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Valerie Plesch | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wholesale prices in October, as measured by the producer price index, fell 0.5% for the month against the expected 0.1% increase. And that, to put it mildly, "may be at least a tad optimistic," Cox wrote. Expectations of a rate cut forced down Treasury yields Tuesday (though they rose again yesterday).

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation on the ropes, shutdown averted
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. Much like then, the sheer scale of the yield swoon has stoked bond volatility gauges (.MOVE) too. What's more, a quarter point rate cut by May is now 80% priced and 100bps of easing through 2024 is now baked in. U.S. corporate news stays on retail later as Target reports earnings, following a beat by Home Depot on Tuesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Xi Jinping's, Joe Biden, Russell, Austan Goolsbee, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Michael Barr, Thomas Barkin, Jonathan Haskel, Xi Jinping, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Home Depot, Berkshire, General Motors, Procter, Gamble, Richmond Fed, Bank of England, APEC, Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks, Reuters, NFIB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, UK's, York, San Francisco

☆ BOJ's hawkish rhetoric signals chance negative rates may end soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Having watered down YCC at its last policy meeting, the BOJ's next goal is to pull short-term rates out of negative territory early next year, sources have told Reuters. That leaves open the chance of an policy change in January, when the BOJ next reviews its quarterly price forecasts. Most expect an end to both YCC and negative rates. "It's an awfully big upgrade and shows how the BOJ had made estimates that were way too low," said former BOJ top economist Hideo Hayakawa, who expects negative rates to end in April. Even if it ends negative rates, nominal short-term borrowing costs will remain well below levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy - estimated by analysts to stand somewhere near 2%.

Persons: Issei Kato, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda's, Haruhiko Kuroda, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hideo Hayakawa, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Daiwa Securities, Japan Center for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S

Whatever is driving it, the sheer size of the record short positions and the pace at which they are growing suggest the reversal, when it comes, could be powerful. Leveraged funds - those more likely to be active in the basis trade - grew their net short position by 149,000 contracts to 2.08 million, a new record. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIn the two-year space, non-commercial accounts grew their net short position slightly to a new record 1.454 million contracts, and leveraged funds' net short position rose substantially to 1.716 million contracts, also a new record. A short position is essentially a bet that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet that it will rise. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIf softer inflation and a more dovish U.S. central bank keep yields under downward pressure, funds' short Treasuries position is likely to come under increasing pressure too.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Futures Trading Commission, Reuters, Bank of America, UST, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S

An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The economic calendar sees the release of Japanese trade data, machinery orders and the closely-watched 'tertiary activity index', as well as Australian unemployment and Chinese house prices. On the policy front, the Philippine central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% on Thursday, although there's an outside chance it might hike to 6.75%. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- Japan trade (October)- China house prices (October)- Philippines interest rate decisionBy Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, China's Alibaba Organizations: REUTERS, Investors, Treasury, Nikkei, Barclays, Bank of Japan, Lenovo, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, Asia, Japan, Philippine, Philippines

☆ Instant view: Cooler October US CPI raises confidence that Fed hikes done
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.1% on the month and increasing 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. The rally was due to rising investor belief that the Federal Reserve will now be less likely to hike interest rates at future meetings. LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI-SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK“Today's Core CPI print was below expectations. "The Fed will not want to step back from its hawkish stance yet; the annual core rate at 4% is still some way away from target. THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AT HEDGE FUND GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK"We're happy to see both headline and core CPI come in lower than expected.

Persons: Hannah Beier, ” BEN JEFFERY, GREG BASSUK, ” “, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, we’ll, ” CHRIS ZACCARELLI, LINDSAY ROSNER, GOLDMAN, ” MATTHEW MISKIN, JOHN, “, ” STUART COLE, Kashkari, Powell, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, it's, THOMAS HAYES, OLIVER PURSCHE, It’s, ” Organizations: Reading, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Markets, BMO, Reserve, CPI, ALLIANCE, Fed, Global Finance, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WALTHAM, MA, WISCONSIN, CHARLOTTE, GOLDMAN SACHS, JOHN HANCOCK, BOSTON, LONDON

☆ JPMorgan's stock guru Kolanovic says don't buy the market bounce, stocks are overvalued and consumer is in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S & P 500 is up more than 7% in November, but JPMorgan wrote to clients this week that the rebound is just a head fake. The biggest bank in the country thinks stocks are expensive and consumer spending is set to slow. Rather, "a significant part of this move was technical in nature, driven by momentum strategies and short covering." The hurdles for the stock market are manifold, according to JPMorgan. Instead, JPMorgan recommends a defensive posture in its model portfolio, underweighting stocks and bonds and overweighting cash and commodities.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan

[1/5] A trader reacts as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A benign U.S. inflation report is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy, a so-called Goldilocks environment that investors believe will benefit stocks and bonds. This does feel like a Goldilocks moment for the entire market.”The data fueled a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up about 2% on the day, on track for its biggest one-day rise since January. Still, some investors believed it was too early to call a victory in the fight against inflation.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eric Kuby, bearish, “, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Thomas Hayes, ”, Brian Rose, Jamie Cox, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ankika Biswas, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Reuters, BofA's Global, Fed, Fund, UBS Global Wealth Management, Harris Financial, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Thomson Reuters United States, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Goldman Sachs says investors should go long commodities, sees 20% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should take a long position on key commodities with substantial returns expected in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. OPEC is also expected to keep its crude production cuts in place through most of 2024, according to Goldman. Gold and energy also are potential hedges against supply shocks from geopolitical risks and other developments, according to Goldman. The investment bank views an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz as unlikely, but if such an event did occur the rally would sizable and immediate. It is also gold's time to shine, the investment bank said, with prices rising 5% since the Israel-Hamas war started.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Brent, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Goldman, Federal Reserve Locations: Hormuz, Israel

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

☆ Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S

☆ BOJ debated groundwork for future easy-policy exit at Oct meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Staff members of Bank of Japan walk between the BOJ headquarters buildings in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. The discussions highlight how the BOJ is looking to exit its decade-long accommodative regime, as prospects of sustained inflation and wage growth heighten. At the Oct. 30-31 meeting, the BOJ kept its ultra-low interest rate targets unchanged but tweaked the yield curve control (YCC) to loosen its grip on long-term interest rates. Another opinion showed how one board member saw prospects of sustainably achieving the BOJ's price target having heightened further since the previous meeting in July. The summary does not disclose the identity of the board member who made the comments.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation will hit the Fed's 2% target by April and keep falling, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Inflation is poised to hit the Fed's long-term 2% target by April of next year, according to ING Economics. ING said falling oil, rent, and vehicle prices are set to drive a continued period of disinflation. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur Chart of the Day is from ING Economics, which shows that inflation is set to hit the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% by April of next year and fall below 2% not long after that. Also helping drive inflation lower is a reduction in pricing power among businesses, which for the past two years relied on steady price hikes to fuel growth. The dynamic of falling inflation and a decline in economic growth represents the push and pull the stock market will likely face in the next year.

Persons: — Organizations: ING Economics, ING, Service, Fed, ING Economics ING

☆ Dollar steady against euro, yen on intervention watch as it hits one-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Traders also remained on alert for potential intervention in the Japanese currency as it rose above the 151 level against the dollar, its weakest level in a week. “The dollar is vulnerable to weaker data going forward," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. "We’re transitioning to a sort of sell dollar rallies environment, after the buy dollar dips trend that we’ve seen really since the middle of the year." The dollar gained 0.41% to 151.03 Japanese yen , heading back towards levels that have investors on watch for currency intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shaun Osborne, ”, Osborne, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nick Bennenbroek, Francesco Pesole, Karen Brettell, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Scotiabank, U.S, ING, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Toronto

☆ Dollar rises for third day before Fed Chair Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The data side has been very quiet so the main drivers have been the hawkish comments from Fed speakers," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole. Focus now turns to remarks from Fed Chair Powell later on Wednesday. DARKENING GROWTH OUTLOOKThe euro fell 0.3% to $1.0670, further weighed by a darkening growth outlook in the euro zone. "The mixed outlook for consumer and investment spending leaves the euro zone very close to recession," said Wells Fargo economist Nick Bennenbroek. "Regardless of whether the euro zone falls into recession, we see enough growth headwinds to suggest that the European Central Bank's monetary tightening is done."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Francesco Pesole, They've, Powell, Matt Simpson, Wells, Nick Bennenbroek, ING's Pesole, Luci Ellis, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Lincoln, Christina Fincher, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve, U.S, ING, Central, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson

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