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Japan's low interest rates made its currency a cheap option to borrow and fund other trades in the US and worldwide. So there's $6 trillion sitting in money market funds that is being held hostage to politics, he added. Advertisement"We've had these episodes of market volatility in the past, and the only path was in and out of equities," Quinlan said. Remember, as interest rates come down, you lock in two-, five-, or 10-year yields. Those money market funds are going to come down as the interest rates come down."
Persons: , Joe Quinlan, Quinlan, it's, There's, You've, capex, Donald Trump, We've, Russell, We're Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Business, Reserve, Big Tech, Labor Locations: China, Israel, Iran
watch nowEconomists have said it is difficult to accurately assess the scale of the yen carry trade, with estimates varying widely. Some analysts, using Japan's foreign portfolio investments, say the yen carry trade could total as much as $4 trillion, Reuters reported. "The real Japan strategy is not just a quick carry trade, borrowing at close to zero interest rates in Japan and investing in high yield assets. Analysts at Barclays said systematic selling pressure does not appear to have been exhausted yet and it's "too early" to call an all-clear to the carry trades unwind. We expect volatility to remain elevated, which should continue to hurt EM carry trades," the analysts at Barclays said in a research note published Sunday.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Richard Kelly, he'd, Kelly, CNBC's, Nogi, Jesper Koll, Koll, What's Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Afp, Getty, Bank of Japan, TD Securities, Reuters, TS Lombard, Bank of, The Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Monex, Barclays Locations: Tokyo, Japan, MEX, Brazil, Bank of Japan, U.S
Dollar tenses for data verdict on rate cut risks
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The greenback was idling at 147.17 yen , having briefly touched a one-week high of 148.23 overnight before profit-taking emerged. More important will be the consumer price report and retail sales for July which could have a material impact on whether the Fed eases by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September. The former outcome would likely lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, while the latter would have the opposite effect. The futures market clearly still sees recession as a risk with 101 basis points of Fed easing priced in by Christmas, and more than 120 basis points for next year. "Although the trend is moderating, inflation is too high for the Fed to justify the market pricing 100bp of rate cuts between September and year-end."
Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Swiss, Atlanta Fed, ANZ
Stocks have made a nice comeback after testing support last week in the wake of a violent summer swoon tied to the yen carry trade. I run four equity portfolios at Inside Edge Capital, the most actively managed is appropriately named "Active Opps." In this article I'll cover the technical formation of the resistance zone as well as the option hedge we're using. If this is an ill-fated rally, or a so-called bear market rally, my bet is it will fail around this zone. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Nvidia's, Todd Gordon Organizations: Edge, Nasdaq, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
In this article 8301.T-JP Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTwatch nowCorrections in the yen and the unwinding of the carry trade are positive developments for Japan, said Jesper Koll, a veteran investor who remains bullish on the Japanese market. The yen carry trade began unwinding last week, as interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan strengthened the yen, and led to a sharp sell-off in markets globally. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon U.S. dollar/Japanese yen"It is correct to put a price on money. According to Koll, it's possible that as much as 75% of the yen carry trade could have been unwound, though the total size of the carry trade has not been reliably ascertained. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Nikkei 225
Persons: Jesper Koll, , CNBC's, unwinding, it's, Koll, Claude Trichet Organizations: Monex, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, European Central Bank Jean, CNBC, U.S ., Bank of Locations: Japan, U.S
New PT for Starbucks: The standout in the market Tuesday is Starbucks , which is up 22%. The announcement is also winning over Wall Street, with three firms already upgrading their rating on Starbucks' stock to a buy or buy-equivalent. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Baird, Piper Sandler, " Cowen, Brinker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, New, Starbucks, Wall, Bar, Brinker International, Cardinal Health, Jim Cramer's Charitable
In a note on Aug. 7, Goldman's analysts revealed a number of top picks, including three buy-rated Japanese stocks with over 40% upside potential over the next 12 months. Year-to-date, Asics shares are up 99.5%. Goldman has a target price of 3,100 Japanese Yen ($21.07) on the stock, giving it around 50% upside potential at the time of the note. Goldman has a target price of 6,900 Japanese Yen on the stock, or 37% potential upside. Goldman has a target price of 4,850 Japanese Yen on the stock, giving it around 54% upside potential at the time of the bank's note.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, U.S . Asics Corporation Goldman, Sho Kawano, Asics, Goldman, Suntory Beverage & Food Goldman, Takashi Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Ryo Harada, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, U.S . Asics Corporation, Asics Corp, Suntory Beverage & Food, Asia Pacific, Suntory, Yen, Hitachi Locations: U.S, Japan, Europe, Asia
In today's big story, we're looking at how the startup landscape is drastically changing thanks to the entrance of private-equity firms and the rise of acquihires . Private equity is filling the gap left by a frozen IPO market and corporates unwilling or unable to cut deals, writes Business Insider's Melia Russell. Perhaps most importantly, a PE deal means equity holders get cash immediately, unlike an IPO that has some holding periods. Acquihires where the brains behind buzzy AI startups sell themselves (instead of the entire company) to bigger players are in vogue, writes BI's Ben Bergman and Sri Muppidi. Depreciation costs to massive GPU chip investments pose a huge risk for AI companies .
Persons: , You've, Alyssa Powell, Insider's Melia Russell, shivers, Samantha Lee, BI's Ben Bergman, Sri, acquihires, they'll, VCs, it's, Taylor Swift, Tyler Le, Fisker, Zuck, Elon Musk's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Biden, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, SV Getty, Tech, guardrails, Character.AI, Getty, UBS, Mega, Revenue Locations: Europe, New York, London
BTIG's chief market technician warned Sunday that, while the pullback seen early last week generated some "tactical buy signals," he thinks the "bulk of the bounce has likely run its course and [we] would use strength … to lighten exposure." However, the broad market index clawed back most of that decline by Friday, posting a weekly loss of just 0.04%. .SPX 1M mountain SPX 1-month chart "A final durable low is likely still ahead of us," Krinksy said. The big event this week will be the release of the consumer price index reading for July, due Wednesday. "We see LLY stock outperforming for its high growth outlook and low beta," the Deutsche analyst added, while calling the drugmaker a "low beta/high growth unicorn."
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky doesn't, Krinsky, Krinksy, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Lori Calvasina, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly Organizations: JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche
Yen slips, markets brace for U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. "It's more a case of market squaring up a little bit ahead of the U.S. inflation data," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The dollar was trading at 146.87 yen , up 0.2% from late U.S. levels on Friday. The Aussie was barely up at $0.6577 on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar stayed below last week's three-week high of $0.6035. Implied volatility on the yen, measured in yen options, has also subsided.
Persons: Bank of Japan's hawkishness, Jackson, Christopher Wong, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, OCBC Bank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank, Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: U.S, Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe yen carry trade will still be 'highly profitable' in 2 years' time, David Roche saysDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, discusses the yen carry trade and global markets.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum
S & P down 5.50% here, headlines of a Nikkei crash, and another great Yen carry unwind happening. I traded for a hedge fund and served as senior technical analyst for an foreign exchange company during the great financial crisis of 2008 that saw a severe yen carry unwind. If the line is headed south the dollar is weakening relative to the yen, and the yen is strengthening relative to the dollar. I believe that the July 11th CPI print that came 0.1% below expectations was the culprit to this whole yen carry unwind. Could this yen carry unwind move further?
Persons: it's, Todd Gordon Organizations: Nikkei, Markets, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
The latest global market volatility has reinforced China's status as a distinct market, even if its growth has slowed recently. While U.S. tech stocks plunged and Japanese stocks swung wildly in a historic two days of price action , Chinese stocks suffered less . The investors remained net buyers of Chinese stocks for the third quarter so far as of Aug. 6, the data showed. Finally, the low correlation of the China stock market with the U.S. stock market could provide investors with diversification benefits." Chinese stocks, especially those traded on the mainland, have historically been less correlated to global market moves due to Beijing's capital controls and other restrictions.
Persons: Matt Wacher, William Yuen, Invesco, That's, Steven Sun, Paul Christopher, Morningstar's Wacher, it's, Wacher Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Morningstar Investment Management, U.S, HSBC, Technology, Shanghai —, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HSBC Qianhai Securities, National Bureau, Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Index Locations: Asia, U.S, Shanghai, China, Pacific, EPFR, Hong Kong, Bank of China, Wells Fargo
While there was some demand for protection against the prospect of volatility reemerging, overall sentiment across Wall Street had gotten more bullish. Until Wall Street can be sure that the consumer will hold on (or not), conviction is easily shaken. After years of weird times and outsize gains, Wall Street is dancing on a knife's edge. After years of weird times and outsize gains, Wall Street is dancing on a knife's edge. What happened on Monday was a sudden realization that the new structure may assert itself before Wall Street imagined it would.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, we've, they'd, corporates, Dow, Mandy Xu, Cboe's, Wall, Torsten Slok, Slok, Shake, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, they've Organizations: Dow Jones, Bank of Japan, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Wall, Apollo Global Management, Corporations, Companies Locations: Asia, Japan, Mexico
This week's violent global market meltdown started in Japan — where Warren Buffett has big investments — but the damage was limited. The Nikkei 225 index , a benchmark for Japanese stocks, plunged 12.4% on Monday, its worst day since "Black Monday" in 1987, triggering a domino effect globally. The stocks Buffett holds cratered as much as 30% initially, but bounced back by the end of the week along with the broader market. The Japanese trading houses also reported second-quarter earnings earlier this week, mostly exceeding analyst expectations and maintaining their full-year guidance. Away from Japan, Buffett was in a selling mood in the second quarter.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's, it's Organizations: Bank of Japan, Berkshire, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo —, Sumitomo, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Apple, Buffett Locations: Japan, Omaha, Berkshire
These stocks have low share price volatility over the past five years, and their total return — including share price gains and dividends — are greater than the S & P 500's over the past five years. Take a look at the names below: Health-care companies Amgen , UnitedHealth Group and AbbVie are among the names with low volatility and strong returns in recent years. Pharmaceutical company AbbVie's roughly 262% gain over the past five years is the highest of the stocks in the group. Amgen's share price has a 5-year total return of 104%, making it a steady grower, but still the slowest of the list. Other stocks with low volatility and attractive valuations include automotive replacement parts retailer AutoZone and insurance company Aflac .
Persons: Stocks, They're, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Mohit Bansal, TD Cowen, Kannan Venkateshwar, — CNBC's Christopher Hayes Organizations: CNBC, UnitedHealth, Pharmaceutical, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Humira, Barclays, Mobile
For example, this season started with the banks roaring higher on great numbers, legitimately great numbers led by a phenomenal Bank of America quarter. The later just made no sense because it is pulling away from Intel on the low end and if Nvidia really does have production problems then AMD is the de facto winner. In fact, the only stock that didn't suffer from an Nvidia relation, Apple, got through earnings without too much trouble. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: , techs, We've, Warren Buffett, Buffett, industrials Eaton, Donald Trump, we've, execs, I've, Kamala Harris, Trump, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Rob Kim Organizations: Federal Reserve, of America, Bank of America, Club, Apple, Fed, SL Green, Boston Properties, Nvidia, Arista Networks, Micron, Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Devices, Intel, AMD, Accenture, Deloitte, McKinsey, White, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Lowe's
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."
Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan
Insider Today: A shot to reverse aging
  + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Joi-Marie Mckenzie | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
On the agenda:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementVeronica Thatcher, who's worked at Costco for 18 years, told Business Insider she also spotted "Halloween- and harvest-themed decorative pillows" in the big-box store this month. According to eMarketer, Lowe's made Halloween merch available online on June 1 and it'll be available IRL on August 23. iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIWealthy patient, healthy jointsIt's hard to slow down aging, but the wealthy are giving it their best shot, literally. More of this week's top reads:The Insider Today team: Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York.
Persons: , I'm, Chelsea Jia Feng, you've, Veronica Thatcher, who's, Mike Booth, prepping, eMarketer, Lowe's, Taylor Rains, Insider's Taylor Rains, Beond, Rebecca Zisser, Bryan Johnson, — Johnson, Edward Berthelot, Burberry, Natalie Ammari, they've, Kit Harington, Oscar, Anthony Hopkins, Jordan Parker Erb, Dan DeFrancesco, Lisa Ryan, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Retailers, Costco, CFVR, Home Depot, Burberry, US, HBO, Paramount, Showtime Locations: Alberta, Canada, Michaels, Italy, Maldives, Dubai, Bahamas, British, London, Nazi, New York, New York City
Activist Commentary: Oasis Management is a global hedge fund management firm headquartered in Hong Kong with additional offices in Tokyo and Austin, Texas, as well as the Cayman Islands. Kobayashi Pharmaceutical is a Japan-based pharmaceuticals and consumer products company. It would imbue the company with a sense of urgency to improve operational performance, corporate governance and shareholder value maximization. But that is also a long shot, even at a company with corporate governance issues as we have here. The firm is a top-tier Japan shareholder activist and if anyone can get board seats in Japan, it is Oasis.
Persons: Seth Fischer, Oasis, Kobayashi, Akihiro Kobayashi, Kazumasa Kobayashi, Satoshi Yamane, Ken Squire Organizations: Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, Business, Company, Oasis Management, Oasis, Ain Holdings, Kobayashi's, Tsuruha Holdings, Kao Corp, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings, 13D Locations: Japan, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Austin , Texas, Cayman Islands, Asia, Europe, Kobayashi, Hokuetsu, Ain
With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened for the most overbought and oversold stocks on the Street, as measured by their 14-day relative strength index, or RSI. Alternatively, stocks are viewed as oversold with an RSI below 30, which suggests a possible buying opportunity. While shares are slightly positive on the week, up nearly 1%, the stock has tumbled 10% in 2024. TTWO YTD mountain Take-Two Interactive Software, year-to-date Other stocks that made the oversold group are artificial intelligence infrastructure play Super Micro Computer and Ulta Beauty . The stock closed out the week nearly 25% higher and is up more than 41% this year.
Persons: Stocks, Hugh Johnston, Mars, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, CNBC Pro, Disney, Software, Lockheed, RBC Locations: U.S
The S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16. This week marked the most volatile week of 2024 for the market. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022. At the Monday lows, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% from its recent all-time high. It is not just equity markets that have had a volatile week.
Persons: Stocks, Spencer Platt, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Wall, Treasury, Capital Locations: U.S, unwind, Hatfield,
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
In today's big story, turns out being a venture capitalist can be really hard, and some VCs want out . The big storyWe were promised big returnsiStock; Rebecca Zisser/InsiderFor venture capitalists, when the going gets tough, the tough get going…toward the exits. Some VC workers are reconsidering their future as the industry goes through a rough patch, writes Business Insider's Sri Muppidi. The ink was barely dry on a deal before startups were raising another round, doubling their VCs' investment (on paper) along the way. One Bay Area partner told Sri junior investors need to meet dozens of companies a week.
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, It's, That's, VCs, dobi, Goldman Sachs, duMond, Chip Somodevilla, Alyssa Powell, Jamie Dimon, we're, Jamie, David Zalubowski, Chelsea Jia Feng, Meta's Instagram, Grzegorz Wajda, Elon Musk, Musk's X, he's, Grimes, Sam Altman, Kamala Harris, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, VCs, Tiger Global, Area, JPMorgan, YouTube, Dell, Getty, Elon, Federation, Global Alliance, Responsible Media, UK Prime, Democratic, Trump, Disney Locations: Patagonia, Dimon, Anaheim , California, North Carolina, Virginia, New York, London
New York CNN —After a prolonged period of calm, financial markets went into a tailspin this week. One trigger for the selloff was the unraveling of the Japanese yen carry trade. Some investors say there could be more volatility to come, particularly since it’s unclear how much more the yen carry trade could unwind. The carry trade is “enormous. The unwinding of the carry trade and weak labor data came at a delicate time rife with uncertainty for Wall Street.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, , Steve Sosnick, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Dow, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nikkei, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Companies, Federal Reserve, Investors, CNBC, Interactive Brokers, Markets, Republican, Home Depot, Walmart Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Russia
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