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What’s ahead this week for Wall Street and the economy
  + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Case Shiller house price index for May and consumer confidence for July from the Conference Board. Earnings reports from AT&T, Boeing, Meta Platforms, Mattel, Stellantis and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Earnings reports from Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Honeywell, Keurig Dr Pepper, Royal Caribbean, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines and Hershey. Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for June, Employment Cost Index for the second quarter and University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July. Earnings reports from Procter & Gamble, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Smith, Powell, Christopher Waller, , Dustin Thackeray, Tesla, Chris Isidore, , Case, Dr Pepper Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Fed, Traders, Rockland Trust, Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Crewe Advisors, Nasdaq, Netflix, Safety, Health Administration, doesn’t, Biden Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Ryanair, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, General Motors, Daniels, Midland, Verizon, PacWest, Boeing, Mattel, Honeywell, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, University of Michigan, Procter & Gamble, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Rockland, American, United States, PacWest Bank, Royal Caribbean
The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. “Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024. "Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further," Zabinska-La Monica said. The Conference Board said the contraction in the LEI is accelerating, falling 4.2% over the last six months compared to 3.8% between June and December 2022.
Persons: ” Justyna, Monica, Safiyah Riddle, Andrea Ricci Organizations: The Conference, Board, Thomson Locations: U.S
But tempting as it is to buy into that - leading indicators have been flashing red for months, as yet to no avail - we are probably not at that stage just yet. "Most analysts have no choice but to have their initial bias gravitate to the mean or median range of these leading indicators," he said. Reuters ImageReuters ImageLONG AND VARIABLE LAGSOne of the most reliable recession indicators is the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAgain, if the economy isn't in recession by the end of the year, this time it really is different. The signals sent by leading indicators recently have been pretty clear - it just remains to be seen whether they will be accurate.
Persons: Jerome Powell, LEI, Eric Basmajian, Milton Friedman's, payrolls, Jamie McGeever, Jan Harvey Organizations: Federal, Reuters, EPB Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Ukraine
There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.
Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, , I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Leisure and hospitality employment remains 369,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. The household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived showed employment rebounding 273,000, reversing the 310,000 decline in May. Reuters Graphics"Though demand for labor remains unmatched, the labor shortages that employers sighed over a year ago have definitely subsided some," said Andrew Flowers, lead labor economist at Appcast.
Persons: Sean Snaith, payrolls, Selcuk Eren, Andrew Flowers, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Reuters, Manufacturing, Institute for Supply, Treasury, Companies, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington
Women’s labor force participation has rebounded from the pandemic “she-cession” and returned to its pre-pandemic form of making progressively historic labor market gains. By February of 2020, the labor force participation rate for prime working-age women was 77% — just shy of the record 77.3% set during the dot-com era, BLS data shows. The pandemic walloped the leisure and hospitality and education and health services sectors, where women make up the majority of the workforce. The economic evolution and recovery from the pandemic helped accelerate favorable drivers for women to enter the workforce. Separately, new research shows that although women were outnumbered by men in the US workforce, women could be disproportionately affected by businesses’ adoption of generative AI: One recent analysis estimates that 79% of working women (nearly 59 million) are in occupations susceptible to disruption and automation.
Persons: ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, , ” Pollak, Allison Joyce, didn’t, they’re, That’s, University of North Carolina’s, Dana Peterson, we’ve, , ” —, Jeanne Sahadi Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, Baby Boomers, Pew Research Center, University of North, University of North Carolina’s Kenan, Flagler Business School, Conference Board, CNN Locations: Minneapolis, America, Bolivia , North Carolina
Inflation is cooling and jobs abound, but many Americans still feel dissatisfied with the economy. Democrats and Republicans alike think the economy is struggling, despite evidence showing otherwise. Some say the US is in a "vibecession," a disconnect between how the economy performs and how Americans feel about its performance. Even now, with slower inflation, paused interest-rate hikes, and a healthy job market, Americans can't give up the idea that the economy is in trouble. If you're comparing your financial situation with that of three years ago, you're likely to feel as if the economy has gotten worse, even though it's actually gotten better.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Trump, it's, Kyla Scanlon, Scanlon, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Democrats, Service, University of Michigan, Pew Research, Pew, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, CNN, New York Fed, Conference Board, US
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.2%. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was unchanged. Data for April was revised lower to show the so-called real consumer spending rising only 0.2% instead of 0.5% as previously reported. With consumer spending softening, inflation subsided. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in May after advancing 4.7% in April.
Persons: Kevork, Sal Guatieri, Joe Biden's, Mike Graziano, Morgan Stanley, Dana Peterson, Lucia Mutikani, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Commerce, Reserve, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Services outlays, Treasury, RSM, Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles, WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Outlays, New York, Washington
"The economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon in New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended June 24. Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in May. GDP consumer contributionEconomists had expected first-quarter GDP growth would be raised slightly to a 1.4% pace.
Persons: Gregory Daco, Unadjusted, Rubeela Farooqi, Jerome Powell, Amira Karaoud, Scott Hoyt, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Financial, U.S, Treasury, REUTERS, Conference Board, Gross, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, EY, New York, Minnesota, Ohio, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, White Plains , New York, Spanish, Madrid, Louisville, U.S, West Chester , Pennsylvania
The misery index is a crude but effective way to measure the health of the economy. And that misery index number doesn’t even begin to capture the strength of the American economy right now. There are a zillion positive indicators right now, as the folks in the administration will be quick to tell you. In the four years of Donald Trump’s administration, spending on manufacturing facilities grew by 5 percent. During the first two years of Biden’s administration, such investment more than doubled and about 800,000 manufacturing jobs were created.
Persons: you’re, Ronald Reagan, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump’s Organizations: Conference Board Locations: U.S
"A tight labor market will keep the rate path on an upward trajectory, until policymakers see a material rebalancing in supply and demand. "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended June 25. Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in May. Economists had expected first-quarter GDP growth would be raised slightly to a 1.4% pace.
Persons: Rubeela Farooqi, Unadjusted, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Conference Board, Labor, Gross, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, White Plains , New York, Minnesota, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey
There are new signs of a resilient housing market and a home renovation rebirth with potentially bullish implications for three of our Club names. Shares of Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) and Caterpillar (CAT), whose tools and machinery are used in homebuilding, have been on the upswing in recent weeks. "There are a lot of projects that go on top of residential construction that require mining materials, which Caterpillar is a big player in." Discounter retailer TJX should also reap the benefits of a resilient housing market as new and existing homeowners seek to furnish their homes with high-quality branded goods at a discount. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long SWK, CAT, TJX.
Persons: Stanley Black, Decker, Brett Linzey, Stanley, Michael Shlisky, Davidson, It's, Shlisky, Stuart Millar, Miller, Lennar, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, David Paul Morris Organizations: Caterpillar, TJX, Commerce Department, Conference Board, Mizuho Securities, JPMorgan, Caterpillar's, Industries, D.A, Consumers, U.S, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: homebuilding, North America, Lennar, TJX, Maxx, Emeryville , California
Additional data on single-family new home sales in May and home prices in April also indicated the housing market has been able to weather rising interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday it was now expecting the Fed to hike its key interest rate by 25 basis points in July, from an earlier estimate of a pause, raising its terminal rate forecast to 5.375%. The euro was up 0.49% to $1.0957 after climbing to $1.0976, the highest since June 22, after comments from ECB officials. Other ECB policymakers weren't anticipating clear evidenceinflation is easing enough that would enable the central bank to pause their interest rate hikes. The euro rose 0.84% against the yen at 157.830.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Joseph Trevisani, Morgan Stanley, Shunichi Suzuki, Lagarde, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Chuck Mikolajczak, David Evans, Alex Richardson Organizations: YORK, European Central Bank, greenback, U.S, Conference Board, U.S . Federal, Bank of Japan, Japan's Finance, ECB, Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: U.S, Russian, Belarus
TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held firm against major currencies on Tuesday as tension simmered in Russia and traders looked ahead to U.S. data that may determine the timing of further interest rate hikes. The Russian rouble weakened 0.41% versus the dollar at 84.75 after hitting its weakest level since March 2022. Japan intervened to boost the yen last year when it weakened past the 145 per dollar level. U.S. data this week include new orders for durable goods, housing figures, and consumer surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan. If the U.S. economic data comes out on the strong side, then further pricing in for the two rate hikes will push up the dollar," Yamamoto said.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Shunichi Suzuki, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yamamoto, Christine Lagarde, Sterling, Rocky Swift, Christopher Cushing, Barbara Lewis Organizations: U.S, Japanese Finance, Conference Board, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Mizuho Securities, European Central Bank, ECB, Central Banking, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Russia, Russian, U.S, Sintra , Portugal, China, China's
Morning Bid: China supports, peak rate haze
  + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
It made its displeasure at further yuan weakness clear on Tuesday, lifting official daily targets while state banks sold dollars. Even though investors seemed to bat away the bizarre weekend events in Russia, the murky Western interest rate picture continues to hamper European and U.S. stocks. Central bankers meeting at an annual European Central Bank forum in Portugal dissuaded markets from betting on a peak in the interest rate cycle just yet. While those comments are likely more directed at European policymakers, where disinflation is lagging, markets also still expect the Fed to push ahead with at least one more interest rate rise next month. The hawkish rate picture didn't deter demand for two-year Treasury notes at Monday's auction, however, and 2-year yields slipped below 4.70% on Tuesday.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Li Qiang, Hong Kong's, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Gita Gopinath, Morgan Stanley, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal, Economic, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Conference, University of Michigan's, Dallas Federal, Richmond Fed, Central Bank, Treasury, Walgreens, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Russia, Portugal, Sintra
Minneapolis CNN —Americans are feeling fairly bullish about the United States’ economic prospects: A key measurement of consumer confidence just jumped to its highest level since January 2022. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was 109.7 in June, rising from 102.5 the month before, according to a report released Tuesday. The latest survey from the business research and membership organization continued to show that consumers retained a far sunnier outlook about the present than what could come in the months ahead. Both the present situations index and the expectations index rose from May; however, the latter remains at a level that flashes a recession warning signal, the Conference Board noted. Still, consumers indicated their plans to purchase homes and cars have slowed, and they’re pulling back more on vacation plans, including travel domestically.
Persons: ” Dana Peterson, ” Peterson Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Conference Board Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Dollar holds firm ahead of U.S. durable goods, housing data
  + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The U.S. dollar held its ground against major currencies on Tuesday as tension in Russia simmered and traders looked ahead to U.S. data that may determine the timing of interest rate hikes. U.S. data this week include new orders for durable goods, housing figures, and consumer surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan. "Two more rate hikes are not fully priced in the market. If the U.S. economic data comes out on the strong side, then further pricing in for the two rate hikes will push up the dollar," Yamamoto said. The Australian dollar fetched $0.66815, up 0.10%, while the New Zealand dollar slid 0.08% to $0.6159.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yamamoto Organizations: U.S, Conference Board, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Mizuho Securities, European Central Bank, Central Banking, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Russia, U.S, Sintra , Portugal
Union workers missed out on a frenzy of wage increases by employers desperate for workers during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Low unemployment makes it easier for union workers to stand firm during negotiations. Union workers also want more affordable healthcare, paid sick time and more-flexible scheduling for greater work-life balance. Some workers said the base wage increase was insufficient and balked at higher out-of-pocket medical costs. Late last year, U.S. freight railroad workers rejected a five-year contract that included a 24% wage increase, citing lack of paid sick leave.
Persons: Diane Swonk, Erin McLaughlin, Willie Adams, Sam Johnson, Johnson, Joe Biden, Todd Vachon, Garth Thompson, Lisa Baertlein, Bianca Flowers, Rajesh Kumar Singh, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Workers, Spirit, Deere & Co, Reuters, KPMG, Conference Board, Conference, . West, International Association of Machinists, Aerospace Workers, Caterpillar, Congress, Unions, Union, CNH, Deere, Midwest, Rutgers, United Parcel Service, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, United Auto Workers, Detroit automakers, General Motors, Ford, FedEx, American Airlines, Pilots, United, United Airlines, Thomson Locations: U.S, . West Coast, Wichita , Kansas, Decatur , Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, West, Los Angeles, Chicago
Minneapolis CNN —More prime working age women are employed in the United States now than ever before. The labor force participation rate for women between 25 and 54 years old set a record high in April and then again in May, rebounding from the pandemic “she-cession” and returning to its pre-pandemic form of making progressively historic labor market gains. Estimates that nearly eight out of 10 women workers could be affected “are just staggering,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist with online job marketplace ZipRecruiter. “Some of these things are becoming more prevalent, and that’s supportive of more women in the labor market,” she said. On the other hand, AI could prove harmful and threatening for any role that is highly “automatable,” Peterson said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, University of North Carolina’s, , Julia Pollak, it’s, Mark McNeilly, Flagler, “ It’s, ‘ I’m, ’ ” McNeilly, , Pollak, didn’t, Dana Peterson, that’s, ” Peterson, Ben Zweig, Jobs, Peterson, we’ve, Sara Mannheimer, Kathrin Ziegler, ” Meredith Nudo, you’re, Nudo Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, University of North, University of North Carolina’s Kenan, Flagler Business School, Kenan, Flagler, UNC Kenan, CNN, of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Baby Boomers, Labs, Montana State University, Institute of Museum and Library Services, Librarians, Digital, National Association of Voice Locations: Minneapolis, United States, Houston
Can that real wage growth persist if the jobs market now loosens with a lag from the swingeing five percentage points of rate hikes in just 15 months? What's more, other surveys have yet to show inflation expectations falling so sharply or lifting confidence. The possibility of a disinflation spur to demand at this juncture may complicate that picture considerably. Importantly, the slower fall in inflation in both Britain and the euro zone means real wage growth remains negative - unlike the latest twist stateside. Bank of America chart on investor survey growth outlookReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD.
Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Dom Wilson, Mike Dolan, Alexander Smith Organizations: University of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Bank of, UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Europe, Britain
Big brands from Bud Light to Disney to Starbucks have recently been entangled in the culture wars. Their involvement in LGBTQ+ representation has made waves among advocates and conservatives alike. But more big companies are quietly working behind the scenes to boost LGBTQ+ representation. Among these same big companies, the number of LGBTQ+ board members rose to 39 from 26 last year. The fracas has now pushed Bud Light from atop the list of best-selling beers in the US.
Persons: Bud Light, , Garth Brooks, Paul Washington, Washington, they've, Roe, Brian Bueno, Dylan Mulvaney, Sarah Kate Ellis, Ellis, Bueno Organizations: Starbucks, Service, Disney, Adidas, LA Dodgers, Fortune, Nasdaq, Leadership, Companies, ESG, Board, Supreme, Farient Advisors, Global Governance, Group, GLAAD, Nike Locations: Americana, Wade, America
Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.
Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, , Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group
Just 74 members of the S&P 500 even mentioned “ESG” in their first quarter earnings calls, according to new FactSet data. ESG funds have also lost popularity with investors. Total assets under management in ESG funds fell by about $163.2 billion globally during the first quarter of 2023 from the year before, according to data provider Lipper. The Congressman asked whether the company’s diversity initiatives were “directing resources away from the important things like greasing wheel bearings?”Companies “see that certain terms have become lightning rod terms. “You can say you’re increasing diversity initiatives just for the optics, but without data to back it up, you’ll eventually get called out by stakeholders,” he said.
Persons: New York CNN —, George Floyd, , “ ESG, It’s, , Lipper, What’s, Bud Light, influencer Dylan Mulvaney, Mike Collins of, , Douglas Chia, Chia, they’re, ” It’s, David Duffy, they’ll, you’ll, , Powell, Bryan Mena, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Dow, Stocks, Beyoncé, Anna Cooban, Michael Grahn, ” Grahn, Bruce Springsteen, Grahn, that’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, InBev, Silicon Valley, Norfolk Southern, Conference Board’s ESG, . Firms, Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve, KPMG, Corporate Governance Institute, , Nasdaq, Danske Bank, Reuters, CNN Locations: New York, Ukraine, United States, America, Silicon, Mike Collins of Georgia, East Palestine , Ohio, Denmark, Stockholm, Sweden, Swedish, Gothenburg
Amid a tight labor market, many were also able to find a better job, with better pay. The combination of a tight labor market and structural change from the pandemic catalyzed job reshuffling over the past three years, he said. The BLS shows the rate of job growth is up in the construction, manufacturing, health, education and food services industries. Despite the apparent end of the Great Resignation, the job market continues to hum along; the US economy added 339,000 jobs in May. The fact that quit rates are down indicates that there’s low confidence in the job market,” Kriegel said.
Persons: , Nicholas Bloom, that’s, , Bloom, Nick Bunker, Jessica Kriegel, ” Kriegel, Bunker, “ There’s, there’s, ” Bunker Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, Federal Reserve, Stanford University, Bureau of Labor Statistics bolsters, Labor, BLS, Federal Reserve Bank of, Conference Board, Bed, Stanford, Workers, Gallup, Bank of America, Georgetown University Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
More CEOs are stepping up their efforts to get workers back in the office, at least part time. CEOs might instead focus on AI and the four-day workweek to boost engagement. That's the thrust of why more CEOs are calling workers back to the office several days a week. So clocking badge swipes at the office seems likely to jeopardize the very thing that helped a record share of workers report being satisfied. Lyon said AI can help workers enjoy higher productivity and increased engagement, in part by weeding out some of the boring stuff.
Persons: , It's, apoplectic —, Felicia Lyon, they'd, Lyon Organizations: Workers, Service, Amazon, Farmers Group, KPMG, Conference Board
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