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Student loan experts expect the administration to provide a safety net for borrowers, giving them extra time — a grace period of at least three months — to send in their payments. So if a borrower could not make a payment within that period, a late payment would not be reported to credit reporting bureaus. The Education Department released the proposal in January, and a final rule — which may have been tweaked from the initial proposal — was sent to the White House for review on May 23. That means the final version of the plan is closer to being published, which could happen in the coming weeks (You can find our guide on the initial proposal here). But even after the final plan is released, getting it up and running by October will be challenging.
Persons: Biden administration’s, , Biden, it’s Organizations: Education Department, White House
But that’s not the only effects expected: Combined with climate change, El Niño this year could dent US economic growth, potentially impacting everything from food prices to the winter clothing sales. Higher food prices are a common theme across El Niño events, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report. Dry weather has parched crops in El Salvador as the El Niño weather threatens food security. The last time there was an El Niño in 2018 through 2019, NOAA dubbed it “The Great Puny El Niño” due to its relatively weak impact on weather conditions. He projects that El Niño weather events could cause $84 trillion in economic losses in the 21st century.
Persons: Niño, that’s, , Christopher Callahan, ” Christopher Callahan, El, Lesley, Ann Dupigny, Giroux, Yi Yu, Linh Pham, Winters, Yu, Callahan, Simeon Siegel, , Chris Scheuring, “ It’s, Camilo Freedman Organizations: CNN, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Dartmouth, Southern, University of Vermont, University of California, Southwestern, Vietnam Electricity Group, Bloomberg, Getty, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Dupigny, US Federal Aviation Administration, California Farm Bureau, La Union, Prediction Locations: Niño, University of California Irvine, Asia, Australia, Southwestern United States, Tri An, Vinh Cuu, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam, United States, rainier, El, Pasaquina, La, El Salvador
ICYMI: This is the last week of 10 Things on Wall Street. Insider's Rebecca Ungarino has more details on how long the beef between Overdeck and Siegel has been brewing behind the scenes. What stands out to me about the drama at Two Sigma is how it all seems to be so petty. The Two Sigma cofounder was included only as an example of the type of managers Haider had eclipsed. The asset manager tapped two internal executives to serve as co-CEOs of the firm, succeeding CEO Jay Wintrob, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, I'm, Billy Joel's, , we've, Goldman, Cofounders David Siegel, John Overdeck, David Siegel, cofounders, Insider's Rebecca Ungarino, Siegel, Rebecca, Haidar Capital's Said Haidar, Haider, Penny, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Scott Olson, Ruobing Su, Michael Broadbery, Goldman Sachs, Maza, Andreessen Horowitz, Seth Klarman, Jay Wintrob, Robert O'Leary, Armen Panossian, Everybody's, they're, Joey Hadden, Jeffrey Cane, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Sigma, Baupost, Oaktree Capital, Street, Wall, LinkedIn Locations: Omaha, New York, London
Two Sigma, the successful quant hedge fund, is dogged by two cofounders who don't get along. Disagreements between Overdeck and Siegel only surfaced publicly for the first time last week. The disclosure was highly unusual for a hedge fund since they generally have much lighter disclosure requirements than their public counterparts, experts say, making the filing all the more notable. The firm has been known mainly as a premier quantitative hedge fund since its founding. Then when it comes to planning for the next generation of leaders to take over from hedge fund founders, the transition can be difficult.
Persons: John Overdeck, David Siegel, Overdeck, Siegel, Mark Pickard, Jonathan Hitchon, Sarah Jacobs, Kevin Mullally, Mullally Organizations: Sigma, Street Journal, Overdeck, Wall Street, Business, University of Central Locations: New York, Manhattan's SoHo, University of Central Florida
For just shy of a year now, the bond market has been signaling that a recession is on the horizon. And for the better part of the past six months, the stock market has been ignoring it. "The market's certainly not acting like it would if this 'Waiting for Godot' recession was right around the corner. "I would say it's much more about what started this conundrum, the combination of pandemic policy, pandemic reopening and hyperaggressive monetary policy. A key narrative from those looking for recession is the lag effects that Fed policy will have.
Persons: Godot, Hogan, Nicholas Colas, Colas, There's, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Riley Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, New York Fed, DataTrek Research, Wharton Business Locations: It's, U.S
It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing
Some of the biggest hedge funds in the world are facing a problem that's proving just as challenging as predicting the markets. The Wall Street Journal has a story on that very conundrum, reporting on the tension at the $60 billion hedge fund Two Sigma between cofounders John Overdeck and David Siegel. While the structure of the modern hedge fund dates back to the 1940s, the industry really hit its stride during the 1990s. But I imagine not every hedge fund will want to go that route. And here's more on how hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium are transforming themselves with the help of Goldman Sachs' alumni.
Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, we've, cofounders John Overdeck, David Siegel, Overdeck, Siegel, cofounders, Goldman Sachs, Tracy Gray, Zhenni Liu, Wil Chockley, Charlie Hanna, Peter Deaner, Jeffrey Epstein, Jes Staley, Epstein, CliffsNotes, Bill Ackman, We've, Jeffrey Cane, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Sigma, Citadel, MaC, Marcy Venture Partners, JPMorgan, Columbia, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Pershing Square Capital, LinkedIn Locations: NYC, Los Angeles, Swiss, New York, London
John Overdeck and David Siegel created hedge-fund giant Two Sigma, amassing billions in wealth. Here's the relevant section of the filing:There have been a variety of management and governance challenges at the Adviser. These disagreements can affect the Adviser's ability to retain or attract employees (including very senior employees) and could continue to impact the ability of employees to fully implement key research, engineering, or corporate business initiatives. Nor can it agree on the org chart, the management structure, corporate governance, or succession plans. These disagreements might hurt Two Sigma's ability to retain and attract star employees, and those employees' ability to actually implement research, tech, or business initiatives.
Persons: John Overdeck, David Siegel, Juliet Chung, Gregory Zuckerman, Chung, Zuckerman, Jamie Nash, Kleinberg Kaplan, I've Organizations: Sigma, Bloomberg, Wall Street, Management, Management Committee, Chief Investment Officers
Online brands like Warby Parker and Allbirds are also opening brick and mortar shops. Brands that have moved away from department stores and physical shops in recent years are now pivoting back to traditional retail tactics after experiencing first-hand the difficulty of acquiring and retaining customers directly online. And they're not alone: even digital-first brands like Warby Parker and Allbirds have also opened new physical storefronts. A recent study by UBS predicted that retail stores would continue to close over the next five years and estimated that 50,000 shops would disappear by 2028. Nike has also recently announced that it's expanding partnerships with other physical retailers like Designer Brands and Foot Locker after years of steadily cutting its wholesale relationships.
Persons: it's, Warby Parker, Allbirds, , they're, Simeon Siegel, Noble, Locker Organizations: Nike, Service, Brands, Journal ., Interim, Getty, BMO Capital Markets, International Council of Shopping Centers, Ross Stores, Barnes, Body Works, Walmart, UBS Locations: Macy's, Burlington
Let Kids Get Bored. It’s Good for Them.
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Catherine Pearson | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
But the reality is that boredom is “normal, natural and healthy,” said Dr. Westgate, whose research focuses on what boredom is, why people experience it and what happens when they do. “Guarding kids from ever feeling bored is misguided in the same way that guarding kids from ever feeling sad, or ever feeling frustrated, or ever feeling angry is misguided,” she said. One way parents can help children, particularly younger ones, learn to manage boredom is to work with them on developing what Dr. Westgate called greater emotional granularity. For instance, you can help them to distinguish between feeling sad or bored. “Name it to tame it,” a phrase coined by the psychiatrist Dan Siegel, is a technique many child development experts use to help children identify their feelings.
Persons: , Westgate, Dan Siegel, Katie Hurley,
Experts including David Rosenberg and analysts from Wall Street banks including Bank of America have compared the AI stock boom to the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000. Here's a selection of the most recent expert views on this year's AI stock boom. But not everyone thinks the AI stock boom has run too far. Michael Hartnett, Bank of AmericaMichael Hartnett, BofA Global Research's CIO, said AI is in a "baby bubble" for now and noted that "AI = internet." Jeremy Siegel, Wharton finance professorThe retired Wharton finance professor doesn't see the AI hype as a bubble, either.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Dan Ives, , Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Dan Raju, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Michael Hartnett, BofA, James Penny, TAM Asset Management James Penny, I'd, Art Cashin, Cashin, Rosenberg, doesn't Organizations: Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, Service, Wall, UBS, TAM Asset Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, BofA Global, firm's, Bloomberg, Art, CNBC Locations: Wall
The S&P 500 has pushed its way into a new bull market, but experts are torn over whether the rally can last. Though he previously predicted a 15% increase for the S&P 500, he's turned more bearish on the market as recession odds increase. Goldman SachsThe hype for AI is real and could lead the S&P 500 to climb higher this year, Goldman Sachs said. That could take the S&P 500 as much as 14% higher in the coming years, strategists said. The S&P 500 could end the year at 4,500, strategists predicted, implying around a 5% upside from current levels and a gain of about 17% for the full year.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, That's, Steve Marcus, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, he's, Bloomberg Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Cindy Ord, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, New York Fed, Rosenberg Research, Wharton School, Bloomberg, Corporations, Getty, CNBC
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And if inflation does indeed fall further, Powell suggested the Fed might deviate from its projections and keep rates steady. July's Federal Open Market Committee "will be a live meeting," because "a decision hasn't been made," Powell said. But even if the Fed doesn't hike in July, it's likely to hold rates steady for the rest of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Gundlach, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel's, Powell, hasn't, there's, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Getty, CNBC Locations: Washington ,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will shift focus from inflation to labor market, says Wharton's Jeremy SiegelJeremy Siegel, professor emeritus at the Wharton School and senior economist to WisdomTree, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss market momentum in tech, the Fed's use of lagging indicators, and the probability of recession.
Persons: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel Organizations: Wharton School
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel on Fed's rate decisionJeremy Siegel, professor emeritus at the Wharton School and senior economist to WisdomTree, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss market momentum in tech, the Fed's use of lagging indicators, and the probability of recession.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel Organizations: Wharton School
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a critical policy decision today — hike (possibly), pause (likely), or cut (probably not). The Fed has made 10 consecutive rate hikes leading up to today, making for one of its most aggressive tightening campaigns ever. Tuesday's cooler-than-expected inflation data is still double the Fed's 2% target, which suggests there could be more hawkishness ahead. Meanwhile, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel suggested in a separate note that the Fed may actually be done with policy tightening altogether. He explained that, since he doesn't see a recession, the stock market could actually rally higher across all sectors because of investor FOMO.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Bahnsen, Mohamed El, , Christopher Waller, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Tom Lee, FOMO, Read, Warren Buffett's, they're, Qatar's Sheikh Jassim, Jim Ratcliffe, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Reuters, Bahnsen, Reserve, Spar Group, Capital Economics, Berkshire Hathaway, Manchester United Locations: New York, London
Jeremy Siegel is wary of stocks, expecting a recession, and predicting the Fed won't hike again. The retired Wharton professor doubts the stock market will keep surging or hit a new low. Siegel sees a mild recession and the Fed ending its war on inflation to minimize job losses. While the Fed is widely expected to lift rates next month, Siegel suggested it might refrain fom tightening its monetary policy anymore. The markets guru also suggested the Fed might raise its inflation target from 2% to 3% once the current threat fades.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, , WisdomTree Organizations: Service, Federal, Federal Reserve
After raising interest rates 10 times over the past 15 months, the Federal Reserve is expected to take a break on Wednesday and hold rates steady. But the cumulative effects of past rate increases will continue to squeeze the budgets of debt-laden Americans, while rewarding those with money to stash in savings. The Federal Reserve has already raised its benchmark rate, the federal funds rate, to a range of 5 to 5.25 percent to rein in inflation, which is showing signs of slowing. But prices remain elevated — and the Fed could decide to lift rates again as soon as next month. “We were very spoiled for a while with low rates, and that lulled us into a false sense of security in terms of what the true cost of debt can be,” said Anna N’Jie-Konte, president of Re-Envision Wealth, a wealth management firm.
Persons: , Anna N’Jie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Re
As the 2018 West Fire swept through Alpine, Calif., a small town in the foothills east of San Diego, firefighters were stationed in front of Emily Ziegler’s house, where she lives with her husband and three children. The fire claimed dozens of homes in its path, but the family’s house — which includes a garage and a granny flat on more than two acres near Cleveland National Forest — was unscathed. Securing affordable homeowners’ insurance, however, has become a challenge. The family’s policy with USAA doubled to $8,000 last year, and when Ms. Ziegler called other insurers in search of a better deal, they all gave her the same advice: Hold on tightly to your existing policy. “There is a limited number of people who will write insurance in our area, and they will only write it for a limited number of homes,” said Ms. Ziegler, 44, a forensic psychologist.
Persons: Emily Ziegler’s, Ziegler, , Organizations: Fire, Cleveland National Locations: Alpine, Calif, San Diego, Cleveland
Low housing inventory will squeeze prices higher, according to Zillow's chief economist. Goldman Sachs also recently revised its 2023 outlook for home prices up from a 6.1% plunge to just a 2.2% fall, citing "the tailwind from tight housing supply." Demand for housing tends to fall when the cost of borrowing to buy a home rises, driving down prices. Olsen's 5% home-price growth target clashes with most of Wall Street, with Goldman and other banks still forecasting declines. Read more: Wall Street is divided on the outlook for US house prices.
Persons: Skylar Olsen, , , she's, CNBC's, Olsen, Goldman Sachs, Freddie Mac, Goldman, Elon Musk, Jeremy Siegel Organizations: Service
Nike is striking new deals with retailers as brands realize the DTC model isn't all it's cracked up to be. Designer Brands, Macy's, and Foot Locker have each announced expanded relationships with Nike. But, more recently, Nike has expanded partnerships with retailers, including Macy's and DSW owner Designer Brands, the Wall Street Journal reported. In a May presentation, Daniel Heaf, vice president of Nike Direct, said, "People always ask me: Are you a direct business or a wholesale business? Nike's wholesale business grew faster than its direct business between September and November, showing it's still key to the overall business.
Persons: Locker, , Brands, Macy's, Matt Friend, Daniel Heaf, it's, Simeon Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Nike, Brands, Service, Wall Street Journal, Adidas, BMO Capital Markets, DTC
And even if the Fed does pause, Ferguson says it doesn't mean that more rate hikes aren't coming over the rest of the year. He isn't alone in the view that a Fed pause won't last long. This view is underpinned by, among other things, a labor market that continues to be tight. Others see recent cooling the labor market as a signal the Fed may soon have more need to moderate its rate hike strategy. "The broad picture here is the labor market is cooling in a sustainable way.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Roger Ferguson, That's, Ferguson, CNBC's, isn't, Michelle Girard, Steve Liesman, Dennis Lockhart, Lockhart, Fed's, Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, — Ferguson, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell's, Rucha Vankudre, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon —, Solomon, Goldman, Frederic Mishkin, it's, Mishkin, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Bank of America, Fed, NatWest Markets, Atlanta Fed, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Conference Board, Labor, Lightcast, Former Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will give up rate hikes if labor market begins to falter: Wharton professor Jeremy SiegelJeremy Siegel, Wharton School of Business professor of finance, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserve's next moves, the Fed's dual mandate, and more.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel Organizations: Wharton School of Business
Home prices may fall as recent gains and higher borrowing costs restrain demand, Jeremy Siegel says. "The higher interest rates and 40% increase in home prices more than doubled the cost of homes for buyers," the retired Wharton finance professor said in his weekly commentary for WisdomTree on Monday. "Mortgage rates had ticked down to 6% a few months ago before rising back above 7% now — so perhaps we see some renewed softness in housing prices," Siegel added. Higher interest rates translate into larger monthly mortgage payments, which mean banks are willing to lend significantly less money to homeowners today than they were a few years ago. "Shark Tank" investor Barbara Corcoran has argued there's a load of pent-up demand, and called for home prices to surge 20% once interest rates fall by two percentage points.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, , WisdomTree, joblessness, Barbara Corcoran, Jeff Greene Organizations: Service, Federal Locations:
What It’s Like to Be a Queer Teenager in America Today
  + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +16 min
teenagers, high school is a much more accepting place than even a decade ago. Their experiences highlight a “paradoxical finding,” as researchers have described it: Even as social inclusion for young L.G.B.T.Q. To better understand, we took a national poll and talked to two dozen high school students in five states. It’s a different world from when his older sister, Brianna Henderson, attended just seven years ago, when there were very few openly gay students. His home state has passed laws related to restroom use and sports participation for young transgender people.
Persons: , Reese Whisnant, They’re, Stephen T, Russell, It’s, Brianna Henderson, Reese Whisnant Barrett Emke, Henderson, Reese, shouldn’t, Gen, Jareth Leiker, Jareth, Ricardo Nagaoka, , ” Jerry Strohecker, it’s, ” Adrian Soriano, Kansas Barrett Emke, “ Will, Grace ”, Jason Collins, Caitlyn Jenner, Kardashian, Matthew Rivas, Younger, nonbinary, “ You’re, Jeff Jones, “ It’s, I’m, ’ ”, Athena Stiles, Athena Stiles Barrett Emke, I’ve, Shaggy Sargent, Willow Menashe, Eleanor Woosley, Mr, Rivas, Koehl, GLSEN, ” Logan Hortenstine, ” Jayden, Florida Ricardo Nagaoka, ” Isaac Siegel, Wilson, Shelley L, Craig, “ They’re Organizations: Topeka, Republican, University of Texas, Austin, , The New York Times, Gallup, United States, Supreme, North, University of Illinois, New York Times, Social Survey, Topeka High, ” Pew Research Center, Centers for Disease Control, Research, American Academy of Pediatrics, American Medical Association, University of Toronto Locations: Topeka High, Kansas, Florida , Kansas, Iowa, Oregon, United, Portland ,, ” Jerry Strohecker , Oregon, Cape Coral, Fla, Shaggy Sargent , Iowa, Willow Menashe , Oregon, Southern, West, United States, Europe, ” Logan Hortenstine , Kansas, ” Jayden D’Onofrio, Florida, Portland, Wilson , Oregon, Canada, Beeville , Texas,
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