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ETF strategies for long-term outperformance
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
As fears of recession and bank failures fuel investor anxiety, one strategist says the best prospect for outperformance this year is staying long-term invested with a steadfast asset allocation plan. Tierney, director and senior investment portfolio strategist at Schwab Asset Management, told Bob Pisani on CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday. Tierney explained that of the 29 Schwab ETFs, 22 of them are seeing new inflows. "Staying long term invested with a good asset allocation plan generally gives the best prospects for long term outperformance. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, echoed Tierney's sentiment on avoiding getting caught up in near-term market turmoil.
"But here it seems the market likes the deal and is giving a thumbs up with respect to the acquisition." ET (14:10 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 61.34 points, or 0.31%, at 19,686.08. Energy stocks (.SPTTEN) added 0.8%, tracking oil prices amid supply disruption risks from Iraqi Kurdistan. Still, the bourse is up for the quarter underpinned by gains from January as equities bounced back from previous year's losses. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's difficult for the U.S. Fed to lay out a 'real map' right now, analyst saysSusannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says that's because of how "changeable" the situation is.
Origin, Australia's top energy retailer, on Monday agreed to the long-running takeover offer from the consortium, nearing the conclusion of one of the country's biggest private equity-backed buyouts. Once the deal is completed, EIG's MidOcean Energy will take control of Origin's integrated gas business. Thomas said government policy swings world over are a by-product of the volatility associated with the tension between energy security and the transition to cleaner energy. Origin, Australia's No. Brookfield said it plans to invest a further A$20 billion of capital to fully replace Origin's power generation and its power purchases with green power over a decade.
ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.
The index of top European banks (.SX7P) was down 1% in early trading, with German banking giants Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) both falling 0.8%. The rescue of Credit Suisse, which followed the collapses of California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) ignited broader concerns about investors' exposure to a fragile banking sector. The decision to prioritise shareholders over Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bondholders rattled the $275 billion AT1 bond market and some Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders are seeking legal advice. "The AT1 instruments issued by Credit Suisse contractually provide that they will be completely written down in a 'viability event', in particular if extraordinary government support is granted," FINMA said. However, some watchers think the banking system is more vulnerable to rumour and rapid moves in an era of widespread social media use, posing a challenge for regulators trying to tamp down instability.
Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES. “I don’t think the market is going off to the races,” said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A.
Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. US stock market during the Fed's hiking cycleUNCERTAIN OUTLOOKStocks have been resilient this year in the face of uncertainty, with the S&P 500 up 2.5% since the end of 2022. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank "failed badly," but that the bank's collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system. "These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system," he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement also said the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate hikes in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system. The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed Silicon Valley Bank in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.
The Fed raised raised by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. But Chairman Jerome Powell said rate cuts this year at not in its baseline expectations. Major indexes initially pushed higher soon after the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations to bring the key rate to its highest level since 2007. Policymakers in their statement stripped out reference to "ongoing increases" in interest rates, and its view on the terminal rate remained at 5.1%. But stocks turned lower after Powell in answering questions during his press conference indicated expectations of rate cuts this year were off track.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecent banking volatility has not been a 'crisis,' strategist saysDes Lawrence, senior investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors Ireland, says that while there are fragilities in the banking system, it is "better regulated, better capitalized and a lot more prudent" than it was in 2008 or during the euro zone debt crisis.
Credit Suisse staff have swamped recruiters across the globe amid the UBS deal, per Bloomberg. It said one recruiting firm had 30 calls on Monday, while another spoke to 20 bankers since last week. The day after Credit Suisse and UBS announced the acquisition deal, a recruiting firm in Singapore received around 30 inquiries from mostly Credit Suisse private bankers, the people told Bloomberg. A headhunter based in London told Bloomberg that Credit Suisse staff flooded him with calls over the weekend. They added that Credit Suisse will "do everything we can to ensure an orderly transition and to serve our clients as best as possible."
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 131.71 points, or 0.7%, at 19,519.43, preliminary data showed. The financial sector (.SPTTFS), which accounts for nearly 30% of the TSX, added 0.5%. Energy was up 2.9% as oil rebounded from a 15-month low. The materials sector, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, gained 0.8%. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Credit Suisse staff had already been seeking to jump ship in recent weeks, sources told Reuters. "Many Credit Suisse bankers had already been talking to a lot of people for a while [about leaving the Swiss bank]. An executive at a rival London-based wealth manager said they had seen a steady flow of CVs coming in from Credit Suisse bankers. UBS told Credit Suisse wealth bankers on Monday that it was weighing financial sweeteners for them to stay, as it seeks to reassure key staff. Some experts have said Britain's financial services industry could ultimately benefit from recent bouts of turmoil in the United States and Switzerland.
The ECB vowed to support euro zone banks with loans if needed, adding the Swiss rescue of Credit Suisse was "instrumental" for restoring calm. [1/6] Chairman of the Board of Directors of UBS, Colm Kelleher and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Credit Suisse, Axel Lehmann attend a news conference on Credit Suisse after UBS takeover offer, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The Swiss central bank said Sunday's deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share for a total consideration of 3 billion francs, UBS said. Under the deal with UBS, some Credit Suisse bondholders are major losers.
LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -UBS sealed a deal to buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in an effort to avoid further market-shaking turmoil in global banking, Swiss authorities said on Sunday. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Credit Suisse is pictured in front of the Swiss Parliament Building, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The reports that UBS is acquiring Credit Suisse will likely magnify Credit Suisse’s problems by moving them to UBS... The Credit Suisse issues are not new and needed to be resolved years ago. A legal challenge by Credit Suisse shareholders, who will claim that their property has been illegally confiscated, is guaranteed.
[1/2] Logos of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 19, 2023. UBS will buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) and agreed to assume up to $5.4 billion in losses as it winds down the smaller peer's investment bank after a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities. The failure of two U.S. banks and a rout in Credit Suisse shares have sent shock waves through markets over the past week, reviving memories of the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S., UK and Swiss central banks are all scheduled to meet in the week ahead. Others drew attention to the losses likely to be suffered by Credit Suisse junior bondholders.
[1/3] The Charging Bull, or Wall Street Bull, is pictured in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 16, 2019. “The no landing scenario has quickly evaporated,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Asset Management. A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing driven by tighter credit conditions,” he wrote in a Wednesday note. Some investors believe regulators' quick backstop of Silicon Valley Bank, which included guaranteeing the funds of depositors, will prevent a crisis and allow for a soft landing. “The odds of a soft landing have gone down and the likelihood of a hard landing has gone up,” he said.
Core CPI without food and energy prices increased 0.5% after rising 0.4% in January. Year over year core CPI gained 5.5% vs 5.6% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast monthly CPI and core CPI up 0.4%. So they're going to have to respond to the banking crisis that's probably just not over yet." If the Fed’s worried about saving face or coming off as wishy washy or worried about losing credibility with the market, they're going to raise by 25 basis points.
Wall Street's main indexes recorded steep losses in the previous session after startups-focused lender SVB Financial Group's (SIVB.O) share sale to shore up its balance sheet wiped out more than $80 billion in value from bank shares. The bank is in talks to sell itself, the report added. All three major U.S. indexes were headed towards weekly losses as Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week left open the possibility of a large rate hike at the Fed's March meeting, after the central bank dialed down the size of its rate hike last month. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.33-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 3.88-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Traders drastically increased their bets that the U.S. central bank will raise rates by 50 basis points later this month, with money market futures pricing in a 64.1% chance of such a move. BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income, Rick Rieder, said the Fed could raise rates to 6% and keep them there for an extended period of time to fight inflation. ET (1315 GMT) is expected to show private employers hired 200,000 workers in February after adding 106,000 jobs in January. Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) gained 3.1% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) increased its stake in the oil company to about 22.2%. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Futures edge higher after Wall St selloff on Powell remarks
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Traders drastically increased their bets that the U.S. central bank will raise rates by 50 basis points later this month, with money market futures pricing in a 64.1% chance of such a move. BlackRock's top fixed-income investor Rick Rieder said the Fed could raise rates to 6% and keep them there for an extended period of time to fight inflation. ET (1315 GMT) is expected to show private employers hired 200,000 workers in February after adding 106,000 jobs in January. Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) gained 2.5% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) increased its stake in the oil company to about 22.2%. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Amruta Khandekar Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Fed funds futures pricing suggests 61.6% odds of a half-point increase, up from 31.4% on Monday. Getting inflation back to 2% "is likely to be bumpy," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told senators. There's a 61.6% probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 22, according to the CME FedWatch tool tracking fed funds futures pricing. The slowdown followed four straight increases of 75 basis points. The probability for a move of 25 basis points were still larger, at 56.3%.
On the first day of testimony to lawmakers, Jerome Powell said the Fed will likely raise rates higher than expected. Traders are pricing in higher odds of a 50 basis-point move this month after Powell's comments. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist, Allianz Investment Management"Unsurprisingly, Chairman Powell delivered a message with hawkish undertones in his testimony to Congress. Higher rates and inflation should prove a headwind for P/E expansion, so investors should expect total return to derive from earnings and income." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist, LPL Financial"Rates will likely be higher than expected, but inflation is still the wild card as the Fed remains data-dependent.
Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers Inc's shares (RBA.TO) rose 3.1% as two leading proxy advisory firms recommended that shareholders vote against the asset management firm's planned takeover of U.S. auto retailer IAA Inc (IAA.N). ET (15:12 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 20.46 points, or 0.08%, at 20,602.04. The energy sector (.SPTTEN) and miners (.GSPTTMT) fell 0.9% each, tracking declines in commodity prices after China over the weekend set a lower-than-expected gross domestic product target of 5%. "The commodity stocks are weighing on the index because China is forecasting growth for the upcoming year not as high or as we would have anticipated," said Allan Small, senior investment advisor at Allan Small Financial Group. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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