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☆ Stifel raises S&P 500 target on falling inflation expectations, says buy cyclical stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stifel just got more bullish on where stocks will land at the halfway point of 2023, and encouraged investors buy cyclical stocks. However, the strategist expects investors will not have to worry about a downturn until later down the road. Given this, Bannister said he's been bullish on cyclical growth and value stocks since October. Meanwhile, he expects cyclical value stocks in basic materials, capital goods, banks, transportation and others that took a hit during the regional banking crisis are "oversold" if the economy continues to hold up. He said defensive value stocks are "last year's story," while defensive growth stocks will benefit when the U.S. reaches a recession.

JPMorgan is bullish on aluminum producer Alcoa shares as the commodity's outlook becomes more positive. The outlook also looks promising for its proprietary, zero-carbon Elysis smelting technology, which eliminates all scope 1 emissions associated with aluminum smelting, instead emitting pure oxygen as a byproduct," said Peterson. Alcoa shares jumped 2.1% Monday during premarket trading. However, the aluminum producer's shares have declined 20.5% in 2023, and more than 40% over the past 12 months. AA YTD mountain Alcoa shares —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

☆ Regional bank stocks could be a market afterthought in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.

Observers often disagree at the time whether the economy is already in recession, and sometimes afterwards whether a recession has occurred or just a “soft patch” in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion. But the same surveys show the much larger service sector still reporting marginal growth, keeping the economy as a whole out of recession so far. Chartbook: U.S. economic indicatorsThe Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) service sector index stood at 51.9 in April (with more businesses reporting expanding activity than contraction) compared with a manufacturing sector index of just 47.1. In April, the ISM services index was in only the 15th percentile for all months since 1997 compared with the manufacturing index in only the 9th percentile. If the manufacturing sector has already fallen into recession, the services sector is only just avoiding it at the moment.

☆ Here’s where the jobs are for April 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Broad job gains across the economy helped the labor market show resilience in the face of a banking crisis and growing recessionary concerns. Friday's data bolsters the argument that the labor market has remained idiosyncratically strong despite signs that the broader economy has slowed. Almost one out of every four of the new jobs were in health care and social assistance, which added about 64,200 in the month. Professional and business services saw the second largest growth in April at 43,000, which is more jobs than it has added in an average month over the past half-year. Professional, scientific and technical service jobs accounted for the bulk of the sector's gains with a 45,000 increase.

"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

But it made clear that further action was likely given mounting wage and price pressures. "We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. The ECB move, a slowdown after three consecutive 50 basis point increases, comes only days after euro zone banking data showed the biggest drop in loan demand in over a decade. That suggests previous rate rises are working their way through the economy and that ECB policies are now restricting growth. Reuters GraphicsPolicymakers had been split in the run up to Thursday's meeting between a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rise, but markets and economists had overwhelmingly bet on the smaller increase after soft data in recent weeks and similar moderation by other big central banks, most recently the Fed on Wednesday.

☆ US Treasury's top international official heads to Europe, Asia for talks on economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department's top international official is heading to Europe and Asia this week for talks on current macroeconomic trends and events, and a G7 finance officials meeting, Treasury said in a statement on Thursday. Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh will attend meetings of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris on Friday, before traveling on to Singapore and Japan, Treasury said. The meeting takes place a month after the International Monetary Fund trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook slightly and warned that a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels. Shambaugh will join U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the G7 meeting in Niigata, Treasury said. Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

A 25 basis point move, a slowdown after three straight 50 basis point hikes, appears the most likely outcome, although the bigger increase is still a possibility at what is almost certainly not the end of a historic tightening cycle. Markets see an 80% chance of a 25 basis point move while the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters were also betting on the smaller hike. Supporting a possible ECB downshift, the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signalled it may pause further increases. At 3%, the ECB's deposit rate is already restricting economic activity, and underlying inflation has also stopped rising - at least for the time being. The ECB will announce its policy decision at 1215 GMT and Lagarde will hold a press conference at 1245 GMT.

☆ White House details ‘severe damage’ to the economy if debt ceiling default occurs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Kayla Tausche | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

US President Joe Biden speaks about the creation of new manufacturing jobs at the Washington Hilton in Washington, DC, April 25, 2023. WASHINGTON — The White House on Wednesday will publish new calculations warning about the potential damage to the U.S. economy and taxpayers should the government fail to raise the nation's debt limit. A protracted default, CEA says, would result in a Great Recession-like doomsday scenario wherein 8.3 million people lose their jobs, and the stock market falls by 45 percent. A brief default would spur 500,000 job losses, leading to a 0.3% rise in unemployment, the CEA argues. "In a breach-induced recession, there would be limited policy options to help buffer the impact on households and businesses," the White House writes in the post.

☆ Consumers are ‘retrenching.’ What that means for recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for consumers, the lengthy spell in the crossfire of persistently high prices and rising interest rates has taken its toll. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in March, marking the fourth time in five months that expenditures held steady or declined. “Further deterioration in the job market — the last remaining leg propping up the consumer — is bound to accelerate the downshift in consumer spending in the coming months. Private label growth is one of six indicators that Allison tracks to determine a consumer recession. “If you ask the economists, ‘Are we in a recession?’ they’re going to say ‘No, we’re not in a recession,’” he said.

☆ A former IMF official says it's 'very likely' US home prices fall 15-20% as a credit crunch creates a lose-lose scenario for the housing sector and the debt ceiling standoff threatens a substantial re
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A credit crunch, an already-slowing economy, and the debt-ceiling standoff risk a downturn. If these smaller institutions are loaning out less money, this further hurts demand in the housing market, meaning home prices have to fall accordingly. On the other hand, a credit crunch puts the US economy at significant risk of a recession, Lachman said. "Housing gets hit by tighter credit conditions, but then it also gets hit if the economy goes into recession." KPMG's Yelena Maleyev believes prices could fall as much as 20%, while Interactive Brokers' José Torres sees 15% downside.

☆ Here’s what one investor expects from this week’s big jobs report and Apple’s quarterly results
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In a busy week of economic reports, investor Stephanie Link is focusing her attention on key jobs data – including April's nonfarm payrolls. "Initial claims, I think, is going to be even more important because they have been increasing," she said Tuesday. Link added that 370,000 is a "recessionary level" for initial jobless claims. Separately, Link is looking ahead to Apple 's earnings report, due on Thursday after the market's close. Link added that she sees Apple announcing an $80 billion stock buyback program while dividends increase by 5%.

☆ IMF's Georgieva says more vulnerabilities in banking sector may be exposed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEVERLY HILLS, California (Reuters) -International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday she expects more weaknesses to be exposed in the banking sector, only hours after First Republic Bank was rescued by JPMorgan Chase . Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. REUTERS/Mike BlakeSpeaking at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, Georgieva immediately addressed the biggest topic of the day - the banking crisis that has been unnerving investors for weeks. “Recent events continue to remind us of the challenges posed by the interaction between tighter monetary and financial conditions and the buildup in vulnerabilities in the global financial system,” a spokesperson said. The IMF last month trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook slightly as higher interest rates cooled activity but warned that a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near-recessionary levels.

New York CNN —The collapse of First Republic Bank is unlikely to worsen the US economic outlook, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday. Dimon told CNN’s Poppy Harlow early last month that the stress in the banking system had increased the odds of a US recession. The bank had $100 billion in those deposits withdrawn from the bank during the first quarter, it reported last week. “The American banking system is extraordinarily sound,” he said. But he agreed with Dimon that the seizure of First Republic, however, does not shift those forecasts, he told CNN Monday.

☆ Goldman Sachs says these 'compelling' stocks are earnings season winners
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Sifting through the flood of financial reports this week, Goldman Sachs analysts have named a slew of stocks poised for more growth ahead. Constellation Brands Shares of the beer and wine maker are just too attractive to ignore, the firm said. Braze "Long-term fundamentals are intact," analyst Gabriella Borges said of the cloud software marketing company. Braze shares are up more than 7% this year, after coming off of a better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter report . Importantly, the company raised its full year outlook at the high end of prior range, with ~8% net sales growth and ~11% adj.

☆ Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities. Beijing, the world's largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic "zero-Covid" restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. Kpler data indicates that China's imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report. "Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge.

☆ 8 stocks with strong buy ratings, high dividends, and above 20% upside, according to a fintech company that ranks them
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Below is a list of high-dividend-yielding stocks from TipRanks. In the 2001, 2008, and 2020 downturns, stocks with stable dividends outperformed the market by 4.5%, according to a March 23 note from UBS. If a company can pay its shareholders some cash, it's usually a sign that they have a strong balance sheet. Below is a list compiled from TipRanks, a fintech company that uses artificial intelligence to analyze big financial data. They also have a "strong buy" rating and forecasted upside above 20% based on price targets set by people TipRanks categorizes as "top analysts."

☆ GM raised guidance, but its stock fell. Why Wall Street isn't buying in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DETROIT – When a company beats Wall Street's earnings expectations and raises guidance amid recessionary fears and other economic concerns, you would expect the stock to rally. Wall Street analysts say eroding pricing power, labor concerns and challenges in producing electric vehicles, will make it harder for GM to perform at the profitability levels it has been. Record-high vehicle profits and prices, achieved during historically low vehicle inventory levels and resilient consumer demand, are starting to normalize. GM CFO Paul Jacobson said Tuesday that the company expects flat pricing compared to last year. He said consumers paid an average of $50,263 per vehicle in the U.S. during the quarter, off 1% from a year earlier.

☆ Oil slides as recession fears outweigh large US inventory draw
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude fell by $1.08, or 1.3%, to $79.69 a barrel by 10:54 a.m. EDT (1454 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $76.31. U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week by 5.1 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.5 million-barrel drop, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Gasoline and distillate stocks also drew down by 2.4 million barrels to 221.1 million barrels and almost 600,000 barrels in to 111.5 million barrels, respectively, the EIA said. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that OPEC+ remains an efficient tool for coordination on global oil markets.

☆ European shares fall as banking sector jitters eclipse upbeat earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Shubham Batra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 0.7%, as regional banking stocks (.SX7E) dropped 1.2%. Earnings from Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Google's parent Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) beat expectations, but recessionary worries in the world's largest economy kept investor sentiment fragile. Shares of Swiss banking software company Temenos AG (TEMN.S) jumped 10.2% after it reported first-quarter earnings above consensus. Meanwhile, ASM International NV (ASMI.AS) fell 10.0% after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported a drop in first-quarter orders, citing softening market conditions, despite an estimate-beating revenue. Dassault Systemes SE (DAST.PA) slid 7.4% after the French software maker reported first-quarter numbers broadly in line with estimates but with a miss on software licenses.

☆ Gold holds tight range as traders seek direction from U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bars arranged at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul, South Korea. Gold prices moved in a tight range on Wednesday, with recessionary fears lending some support to the safe-haven asset, while investors sought more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike trajectory from U.S. economic data due this week. Recessionary fears already seem to be providing a floor for gold prices, and "Friday's personal consumption expenditures report will likely pack the biggest punch for gold," Simpson added. Market participants expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Gold holds tight range as traders seek direction from US data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Arundhati Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold held its ground at $1,997.40 per ounce by 0307 GMT. Investors seemed reluctant to offload their gold holdings amid weak U.S. economic data, and "trading conditions will remain choppy, and any dips towards $1,950 could be snapped up," said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index. Recessionary fears already seem to be providing a floor for gold prices, and "Friday's personal consumption expenditures report will likely pack the biggest punch for gold," Simpson added. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal. Palladium gained 1.1% to $1,499.47, on track to snap two session of losses, if gains hold.

☆ 'The risk of recession is far from priced in': JPMorgan warns stocks are set up for a 'bearish outcome' as investors crowd into the top names in the market at rates last seen in the 2000 and 2008 bubb
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are crowding into the biggest stocks in the S&P 500 at levels seen in prior bubbles. On a surface level, the S&P 500 looks like it's having a stellar start to 2023. The chart below shows crowding levels in low-volatility stocks, which investors seek in recessionary environments. If the US economy continues to avoid a recession, stocks could be well positioned to continue their gains this year. But many strategists believe a downturn — or at least a pullback in earnings — will drag the S&P 500 down to its October 2022 lows, or worse.

☆ Portfolio diversity means growth witnessed despite recessionary pressures, says Novozymes CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPortfolio diversity means growth witnessed despite recessionary pressures, says Novozymes CEOEster Baiget, CEO at Novozymes, discusses earnings, and explains the impacts of current macroeconomic conditions on the business.

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